21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.13781
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high; price is testing the July low shelf.
EURUSD has slid for three weeks from the 1.1654 lower high on Sep 9. The late-summer rally that topped at 1.1711 on Aug 21 has turned into a lower-high, lower-low chain after the early-September range gave way below the sept low at 1.1566. Fed-hike repricing and $100+ Brent drove the decline even though Eurozone PMI and IFO beat. Price now sits on the july low shelf around 1.1353, just above the june low at 1.1324, below both EMA20 (~1.149) and a rolling-over EMA50 (~1.152), with RSI near 27 in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1566, 1.1654
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.1324 june low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the June–July base
- Recovery close above 1.1495, the 38.2% fib of the Aug 21 high–Sep 24 low decline and near EMA20, would ease the downtrend read; 1.1566 sept low sits above it
- Only a close back above the 1.1654 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
- Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read with price oversold at the july low
- US ADP (Wed), PCE and Friday NFP are the next tests of Fed-hike pricing behind the move