21:01 UTC
Downtrend since the late-August peak, RSI oversold · RSI 29 · price 1.13916
Lower highs from 1.1711; price testing the June–July base.
The August rally topped at 1.1711 on 21 Aug, and a lower high at 1.1654 on 9 Sep started a third straight weekly decline. The drop has been driven by the Fed's September hike, US yields above 5% and Brent above $108. Price broke the mid-September broken low at 1.1455 and is now sitting on the June–July base, with the july low at 1.1353 and the june low at 1.1324. EMA(50) is rolling over and RSI(14) has slipped into oversold territory near 29 as the move from 1.1711 reaches about 350 pips.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1455, 1.1654
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the july low at 1.1353 exposes the june low at 1.1324 and breaks the four-month base
- Recovery above the broken low at 1.1455 (near the 38.2% of the Aug–Sep decline fib) would signal the downtrend losing traction
- Lower-high line from 1.1711 and the 1.1654 lower high caps the structure; the trend read stays intact below it
- Tue HICP and Wed US ADP/PCE could materially shift this read, with EUR shorts crowded into oversold conditions