21:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce stalling · RSI 54 · price 1.13916
Lower highs intact from 1.1478; double bottom at 1.1359 lifted price to a 1.1410 cap.
The slide from Tuesday's 1.1478 4-day high ran mainly through London and NY hours. It deepened on Wednesday even after the euro-area PMI beat, as the hawkish Fed and oil kept USD bid, then based in a Thursday double bottom near 1.1359. Friday's London rebound cleared the 1.1391 neckline but stalled twice at 1.1410, in London and again in NY. That Friday high sits under the lower-high line and the 38.2–50% fib of the week's drop, just above the 1.1400 option pivot. Price closed the week pinned to EMA(20) near 1.1390, with RSI(14) back to ~54 from Friday's push toward the mid-60s.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1455, 1.1478
What it said to watch
- H1 close above the 1.1410 friday high and the lower-high line opens the 1.1455 lower high, with the 1.1478 4-day high beyond
- Loss of EMA(20) and the 1.1368 friday low returns focus to the 1.1359 thursday low and the double bottom
- Rejection back below the 1.1400 option pivot keeps the rebound inside the 38.2–50% fib as a correction of the downtrend
- Euro-area HICP Tue 29 Sep 07:00 UTC and US ADP/PCE Wed 30 Sep 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read