Lower highs Tue–Thu; double bottom at 1.1359, lower-high line broken Fri.
EURUSD slid from Tuesday's 1.1478 high to a week low of 1.1359 on Thursday. The legs lower came during the London and NY sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday as the dollar firmed on Fed-hike bets. Twin lows at 1.1359 held, and a London-open rebound on Friday broke the lower-high line and twice reached 1.1410, stalling near the 38.2% retracement of the week range fib as the dollar paused on softer oil. Price now sits on the 1.1400 option strike, just above EMA(20) at 1.1390, with RSI(14) near 61 after the pullback into NY hours was absorbed.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Friday high at 1.1410 (38.2% fib) extends the double bottom toward the Tuesday low at 1.1430
Loss of EMA(20) and then the Friday higher low at 1.1368 would put the 1.1359 week low back in focus
A break of the 1.1359 week low confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend read
Eurozone HICP on Tue and US ADP/PCE on Wed could materially shift this read
Lower-high line broken Friday; higher lows off 1.1359, capped at 1.1410.
From the 1.1478 week high set in Tuesday's Asia session, the dominant leg was Wednesday's slide through London and NY. USD strength overrode the EZ PMI beat, and the decline extended to a 1.1359 week low in Thursday's NY session. From the London open, Friday's rebound came as the USD eased on softer oil. It reclaimed EMA(20) and broke the lower-high line, but supply capped it twice at the 1.1410 friday high near the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) has cooled to around 58 as price holds just above the NY low.
Support: 1.13858, 1.13679, 1.13589
Resistance: 1.14104, 1.14292, 1.14776
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1386 ny low would leave the 1.1410 friday high as a lower high inside the downtrend
H1 close above the 1.1410 friday high opens the 50% retrace near 1.1418 and the 1.1429 tue low
Break of the higher-low line and the 1.1368 friday low reopens the 1.1359 week low
Monday's EZ HICP flash (07:00 UTC) and next week's US ADP/PCE could materially shift this read; 1.1478 week high is the top of the move
The slide from Tuesday's 1.1478 high accelerated through Wednesday's NY session and bottomed twice at the 1.1359 week low on Thursday, forming a double bottom as the hawkish-Fed dollar rally paused and soft German GfK was shrugged off. Friday's London-led bounce broke the Tue–Thu lower-high line and cleared the 1.1390 neckline, but stalled twice at the 1.1410 friday high, just above the 38.2% retrace of the week's decline, with the 1.1400 round number (large option expiry) pinning trade. Price is now retesting the neckline, with EMA(20) at 1.1389, EMA(50) just overhead at 1.1393 and RSI(14) cooled to ~56.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1390 neckline and the friday rising line, then the 1.1368 friday low, would undo the double bottom and bring the 1.1359 week low back into view
Close above the 1.1410 friday high clears the 38.2% retrace and opens the 1.1430 tuesday low, the base of Tuesday's breakdown
Round number 1.1400 has pinned Friday trade; repeated closes on either side define the next leg
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read before the weekend close
Lower highs Mon–Thu, double bottom at 1.1359 broken higher Friday.
Monday to Thursday printed a steady run of lower highs from 1.1478 to a 1.1359 week low. Tuesday's London and NY sell-offs and Wednesday's grind lower tracked the hawkish-Fed, oil and yields USD bid, while strong EZ PMIs were ignored. Thursday's twin lows formed a double bottom, and as the dollar paused, Friday's London-open rally broke the lower-highs line and the 1.1399 neckline, tagging a 1.1410 friday high near the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline. The NY dip to the 1.1386 swing low held at EMA(20), leaving price pinned at the 1.1400 round number (large option strike) with RSI(14) near 69, its highest reading of the week.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1386, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1418, 1.1430
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1386 swing low and the friday higher lows line undercuts the double bottom breakout
Acceptance above the 1.1410 friday high exposes the 50% fib at 1.1418, then the tuesday low near 1.1430 (61.8% retracement)
Loss of the 1.1359 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC, with the 1.1400 round number option expiry pinning spot into the weekend close
Monday's EZ HICP could reset the read at the week open
Lower highs broken; 1.1359–1.1399 base cleared, retest in progress.
Selling from Tuesday's 1.1478 high ran through the London and NY sessions into Thursday's 1.1359 week low, where a double bottom formed as the dollar paused near its highs. Friday's London session broke the lower-highs line and the 1.1399 Thursday high, then stalled at a 1.1410 Friday high near the 38.2% retracement and the 1.1400 option strike. NY hours are holding the retest with EMA(20) rising to 1.1389 beneath, and RSI(14) near 67 after sub-40 readings through midweek.
Support: 1.1399, 1.1389, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1399 Thursday high returns price to the base and negates the breakout; EMA(20) at 1.1389 is the next test
Clearance of the 1.1410 Friday high and the 50% retracement at 1.1418 opens the 1.1430 Tuesday low, then the 1.1455 swing high
Loss of the 1.1359 week low confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC today, plus the 1.1400 option expiry, could shift the read into the weekly close
Double bottom at 1.1359, break of Thu high now retested.
EUR/USD slid from Tuesday's 1.1478 high to a 1.1359 week low on Thursday. Hawkish Fed pricing and the oil spike drove the drop, and the heaviest selling came through Wednesday's London and NY sessions. Thursday's twin 1.1359 lows formed a double bottom, and Friday's London open rally cleared the 1.1399 Thu high as oil stalled on US-Iran talk reports. That rally tagged a 1.1410 session high just above the 38.2% of the weekly drop fib. Price is now retesting the 1.1399 break level, with EMA(20) near 1.1388 underneath and RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s.
Support: 1.1399, 1.1388, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1388 ema20 undoes the breakout and returns price to the 1.1360-1.1400 range
A break of the higher lows line from Thursday's week low (near 1.1375 now) would expose the 1.1359 double bottom
H1 close above the 1.1410 session high opens the path to the 50% of the weekly drop fib near 1.1418 and the 1.1429 Tue NY low
Fed's Hammack and ECB's Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the weekly close
14:01 UTC
Downtrend stalling, Friday rebound under test · RSI 66 · price 1.13999
Lower highs Tue–Thu, lower-highs line and Thursday range top broken Friday.
EUR/USD fell from Tuesday's 1.1478 high to a 1.1359 week low in Thursday's NY session. The heaviest selling came through Wednesday's London-NY transition as hawkish Fedspeak and the oil spike lifted USD. After a flat Asian range, Friday's London session broke the lower-highs line and Thursday's 1.1399 range top as US-Iran talk reports cooled oil. The move reached a 1.1410 friday high near the 38.2% fib of the Tue high–week low drop, and price is now retesting 1.1399, with EMA(20) turning up near 1.1386 and RSI(14) around 66.
Support: 1.1399, 1.1386, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1429
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.1386 ema20 returns price to Thursday's 1.1359–1.1399 range
Close above the 1.1410 friday high and 38.2% fib opens the 1.1429 tuesday low
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Hammack / Vujčić at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
13:01 UTC
Downtrend since Tuesday, Friday rebound testing it · RSI 69 · price 1.1402
The slide from Tuesday's 1.1478 high ran through Wednesday's NY session after strong US PMIs and hawkish Fed pricing. It ended in twin lows at the 1.1359 week low during Thursday's NY hours. Friday's London session pushed through the falling line and the 1.1399 thu high to 1.1410. Price is now sitting at the 38.2% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop, with RSI(14) near 69 and price back above both EMAs. The fri high and the fib 50% at 1.1418 sit just overhead, with the tue ny low at 1.1430 capping above that.
Support: 1.1399, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1418, 1.1430
What it said to watch
UoM final sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1-yr f/c 4.6%) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1399 thu high turns Friday's breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1368 fri low reopens the 1.1359 week low
H1 close above the fib 50% at 1.1418 puts the tue ny low at 1.1430 in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC adds late-session risk to the rebound
Lower highs Mon–Wed, then 1.1359–1.1400 range with higher lows.
Selling dominated Monday to Wednesday. The sharpest legs came at Tuesday's London open and through Wednesday's London-NY transition, which printed a week low of 1.1359 on Thursday. Thursday's retest of the week low held within a few pips, forming a double bottom. In the London session today price cleared the 1.1391 neckline and the lower-highs line as oil eased on US–Iran talk reports, and it now sits above the ema20. Price is pressing the 1.1400 range top, which capped Thursday's London high, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.1391, 1.1383, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1430
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1400 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1411 and the 1.1430 tuesday low
A slip back below the 1.1391 neckline and ema20 at 1.1383 returns price to the Thursday range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the week low at 1.1359 breaks the higher-lows line and resumes the lower-low sequence
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 60 · price 1.13909
Lower highs Mon–Wed; 1.1359–1.1399 range since Thu with a higher low.
EUR/USD has shed ~136 pips from Monday's 1.1495 high to Thursday's NY-session week low at 1.1359. The pair carved lower highs through the Tuesday and Wednesday London sessions as hawkish Fed repricing and strong US PMIs and claims outweighed eurozone PMI and IFO beats. Since Thursday the slide has stalled in a 1.1359–1.1399 range, with a bullish RSI(14) divergence at the week low and a higher low at the 1.1368 Asia low. Today's London-open lift, on a softer USD as Hormuz talks eased oil, has taken price back above EMA(20) at 1.1381 and into EMA(50) and the 23.6% retracement near 1.1391, just under the Thursday high at 1.1399.
Support: 1.1381, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1399, 1.1411, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Thursday high at 1.1399 breaks the range top and brings the 38.2% fib at 1.1411 and the Tuesday low at 1.1429 into view
A second rejection at the thu high 1.1399 keeps the range read intact and price back toward the ema20 at 1.1381
Loss of the 1.1368 Asia low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.1359 week low back in play
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, with Hammack and ECB's Vujčić both at 18:00 UTC
Lower-high line broken; 1.1359–1.1399 range with double bottom.
The week's decline ran from Monday's 1.1495 high to Thursday's 1.1359 week low. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's London session and in Wednesday's NY session after the US PMI beats, as widening rate differentials kept pressure on EUR despite firm eurozone data. Since Wednesday evening price has held a 1.1359–1.1399 range, with a Thursday double bottom at the week low. Friday's London session then cleared the lower-high line from Monday and lifted price back above EMA(20) near 1.1380, with RSI(14) around 62, to test the range top at 1.1399.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1399, 1.1411, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 range top completes the double bottom and opens the fib 38.2 near 1.1411 and the tuesday low at 1.1429
Return below ema20 near 1.1380 and the friday low at 1.1368 puts the range floor back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM sentiment / inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into range · RSI 61 · price 1.13878
Lower highs Mon–Wed; 1.1359–1.1399 range since Thu.
EUR/USD has shed roughly 135 pips from Monday's 1.1495 high. Tuesday's London open and Wednesday's NY session, after the US PMI beats, drove the legs lower as the USD-led Fed repricing overrode strong EZ data. Since Thursday the pair has held a 1.1359–1.1399 range, with twin lows at the range floor and higher lows into Friday. The London open lift has put price back above EMA(20) at 1.1378 and pressing EMA(50) near 1.1390 under the range top, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1399, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 range top completes the double bottom and opens the 38.2% fib of the week's decline near 1.1411, then the 1.1455 lower high
Rejection at the range top and a break of the higher lows line puts the 1.1359 range floor and the 1.1350 3m low back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and U-Mich inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1495 peak; flat base forming 1.1359–1.1399 since Thursday.
The week's move has run from Monday's 1.1495 high through a sequence of lower highs. The heaviest selling came in Wednesday's London and NY hours, as hawkish Fedspeak and higher US yields lifted the USD despite euro-area PMI and IFO beats. Since Thursday the decline has stalled into a 1.1359–1.1399 consolidation: the week low at 1.1359 held twice during NY hours yesterday, and after Friday's Asian low at 1.1368 price has pushed back above the ema20. It is now pressing Thursday's 1.1391 NY high, which also marks the 23.6% level of the week-decline fib.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1391 ny high and the 1.1400 psych level breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1411, with Tuesday's 1.1455 lower high beyond
Failure back below the ema20 and the 1.1368 asian low returns price to the base of the consolidation
A break of the 1.1359 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1325/50 zone flagged in the macro read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UMich inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling into range · RSI 46 · price 1.13748
Lower highs since Monday, compressing in a 1.1359–1.1399 range.
Lower highs have stepped down from Monday's 1.1495 high. The heaviest selling came through the London and NY sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday, as a hawkish Fed repricing and surging US yields faded strong EZ PMI data. Since Wednesday's NY session, price has compressed into a 1.1359–1.1399 range: Thursday's IFO pop to the range top met rejection, and a late-NY bounce stalled at the fib 23.6% of the week's drop. Friday's Asian range (asian low 1.1368, asian high 1.1382) sits on a flat EMA(20) and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR contracting.
Support: 1.13679, 1.13589, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13819, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low resumes the downtrend and exposes the 1.1340 key support
Close above the 1.1399 range top, clearing the fib 23.6% at 1.1391, shifts the read toward a deeper retracement of the week's drop
A break above the asian high and the lower highs line from Thursday's IFO high marks range expansion higher
Williams 09:15 UTC, US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; Thursday range 1.1359–1.1399 capping price.
EURUSD has slid about 135 pips from Monday's 1.1495 high to a 1.1359 week low. The damage came during London and NY hours on Tuesday and Wednesday as Fed hike repricing and firm US PMIs drove the dollar, while strong euro data gave little traction. Thursday's IFO-beat spike to the 1.1399 Thursday high faded, and the session settled into a 1.1359–1.1399 range with three tests of the week low. Price now sits at Wednesday's 1.1370 low just under a flattening EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 46 and no longer printing fresh lows.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1373, 1.1399, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number and the 1.1340 area
Recovery above the 1.1399 Thursday high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1429 Tuesday low back in view
Holding under ema20 near 1.1373 keeps the range skewed to its lower half
EZ GDP at 07:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC are the London-session risks
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a range · RSI 42 · price 1.1368
Lower highs and lows from Monday's 1.1495 high; compressing at 1.1359–1.1399 since Wednesday NY.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 high. The heaviest legs came in the Tuesday London session and during NY hours Wednesday, as hawkish Fedspeak and 19-year-high US yields outweighed beats in the IFO and flash PMI data. Since Wednesday's NY close, price has compressed into a 1.1359–1.1399 range. Thursday's thu high stalled just above the 23.6% fib, and a lower-highs line is now pressing price back toward the week low. Price sits below the ema20 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 42, and Thursday's lower low came without a matching RSI low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1375, 1.1399, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low exposes the 1.1350 round number and the 1.1340 pivot flagged as key support
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.1375 and the lower-highs line softens the downtrend read
Break of the 1.1399 thu high clears the range top, with the fib 38.2 at 1.1411 the next reference
Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday, now compressing in a 1.1359–1.1399 range.
EURUSD has fallen steadily from Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's and Wednesday's London and NY sessions, as hawkish Fedspeak and US yields near 5.14% outweighed the IFO and PMI beats. Since Wednesday's NY low the pair has compressed between Thursday's week low at 1.1359, tested twice, and the Thu high near 1.1400, with RSI(14) flattening in the mid-40s. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 1.1374, inside a narrow 1.1370–1.1382 Asian range between the asian low and asian high.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1399, 1.1429
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1359 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and puts MUFG's 1.1340 key support in focus.
A close above the 1.1399 thu high reopens the 38.2% fib of the week decline near 1.1411, then Tuesday's 1.1429 low.
Losing the 1.1370 asian low ahead of London shifts the range test toward 1.1359.
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed speakers, could break the current compression.
EZ GDP at 07:00 UTC could also move the pair within the range.
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; 40-pip range 1.1359–1.1399 since Wednesday NY.
Lower highs every day since Monday's 1.1495 peak. Tuesday's London break and Wednesday's NY slide did most of the damage, as hawkish Fed repricing and firm US data overrode EZ PMI and IFO beats. Since Wednesday's NY session price has compressed in a range between the 1.1359 week low and the 1.1399 range top. Thursday's NY bounce stalled at 1.1391, the 23.6% fib of the week's drop, and price now sits flat on EMA(20) during Asia, pressing the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.13589, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13913, 1.13989, 1.14292
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Close above the 1.1399 range top clears the fib 23.6 cap and the lower-highs trendline, opening 1.1429, the tue low
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Williams/Hammack Fedspeak could materially shift this read
EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) during London; this week's EUR data beats have left little mark on this pair
Lower highs since Monday, Thursday-Friday range 1.1359–1.1399.
EURUSD has slid four straight days, from Monday's 1.1495 high to a 1.1359 week low on Thursday. The heaviest legs came in London on Tuesday and in NY hours on Wednesday, after the US PMI blowout widened the policy gap despite solid eurozone data. Thursday's German IFO beat lifted price to a 1.1399 thu high, but supply capped it just under 1.1400 and at the lower highs trendline, short of the 38.2% fib. Since then price has been pinned around the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1377, just above the 1.1370 wed low, with RSI(14) flat near 49 as the range compresses.
Support: 1.1370, 1.13589, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13765, 1.13989, 1.14044
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Loss of the 1.1370 wed low shifts the range toward its lower half
Close above the 1.1399 thu high breaks the lower highs trendline and brings the 38.2% fib at 1.1404 into play
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC), final U-Mich (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday; Thursday range 1.1359-1.1399.
EURUSD has carved lower highs and lower lows from Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest legs came through Tuesday's London and NY sessions and Wednesday's NY session, as strong US PMIs, firm claims and hawkish Fedspeak widened spreads. On Thursday the NY dip to the 1.1359 week low was absorbed twice, leaving a 1.1359-1.1399 range pinned under the descending lower-highs line. Price is hugging ema20, and RSI(14) near 45 sits above its reading at Wednesday's 1.1370 low (wed low), a mild bullish divergence against the lower price low.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1370, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1399, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 thu high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1411
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1350 round number and the 1.1325-50 zone
Acceptance back above ema20 at 1.1378 would mark the first shift in this week's pullback rhythm
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, alongside Williams at 09:15 UTC
Lower highs Mon–Wed, Thursday range 1.1359–1.1399.
EUR/USD has shed roughly 120 pips from Monday's 1.1478 weekly open. It printed a sequence of lower highs as the hawkish-Fed USD bid built, with the heaviest legs coming at Tuesday's London open and into Wednesday's NY session after the strong US PMIs. Thursday flattened into a 1.1359–1.1399 range: the London-open pop on the German IFO beat stalled at the thu high, and twin week low prints near 1.1359 held during NY hours. Price is pinned to a flattening EMA(20) at the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) back near 48 and ATR contracting.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1399, 1.1411, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the fib 38.2 at 1.1411 and the tue low at 1.1429 in view
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350/1.1325 psych zone
Wed low at 1.1370 is the first test of support inside the Thursday range
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read