EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 25 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 44 · price 1.14035
Lower highs from 1.1654; flat base 1.1359-1.1370, bounce into fib.
The three-week sequence of lower highs from 1.1654 carried EUR/USD about 300 pips lower. Hawkish Fed repricing, firmer US yields and high oil drove the move, while resilient eurozone PMI and IFO beats were largely ignored. Selling stalled at a flat 1.1359 swing low tested three times, and a higher low at 1.1370 preceded a bounce back above the lower-highs trendline and EMA20. Price is now pressing the 38.2% fib at 1.1411, with ATR(14) near 22 pips and compressed after the late-week base.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1411, 1.1443, 1.1495
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1443, where EMA50 also sits, would signal a deeper correction of the decline
A break above the 1.1495 lower high would end the lower-highs sequence
Rejection at the 38.2% fib and a loss of the 1.1370 higher low would return focus to the 1.1359 swing low
Close below the 1.1359 swing low would resume the downtrend
US ADP, GDP and spending on Wed, plus PCE/NFP next week, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 top at the start of the window. The latest leg carved a descending channel down to a 1.1359 swing low as Fed-hike repricing and elevated oil kept USD bid despite upbeat EZ PMI and IFO beats. Two days of basing above that low has turned into a bounce to the 1.1400 psych level and the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1495-1.1359 leg, with price pinned at EMA20, EMA50 near 1.1450 still overhead and ATR(14) compressed near 22 pips.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1359, 1.1349
Resistance: 1.1427, 1.1450, 1.1495
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 50% fib at 1.1427 and then ema50 / channel top near 1.1450-1.1456 would break the lower-high sequence
Rejection at 1.1400 psych and a return below the 1.1359 swing low extends lower lows toward the channel low near 1.1349
A move back through the 1.1495 lower high invalidates the channel read
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (18:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
EZ HICP flash on Tue 29 Sep feeds ECB hike pricing and could move the pair out of the channel
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; tight shelf 1.1359-1.1399.
EUR/USD has built a lower-high sequence from 1.1654 through 1.1556 and 1.1495. Each shelf has resolved lower, most recently into a 40-pip base between the 1.1359 swing low and the 1.1399 shelf high. EMA20 remains below EMA50 with price under both, and ATR(14) near 22 pips shows no expansion despite the two-week slide. The move reflects Fed October-hike repricing, which has overridden strong eurozone PMI and IFO beats. The pair now sits just above the 1.1325/50 support zone flagged in the macro digest.
Support: 1.13589, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.13989, 1.14271, 1.14953
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1359 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1325 support zone
H4 close above the 1.1399 shelf high and EMA20 would bring the fib 50% retracement at 1.1427 into view
Only a break of the descending lower-high trendline and the 1.1495 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
US Durable Goods and final U-Mich inflation expectations today, then PCE next week, could shift October hike odds and break the shelf
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 early-month high; tight base 1.1359-1.1399.
EUR/USD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows through the window, with the latest lower high at 1.1495 giving way to a slide through 1.1450. The move comes as hawkish Fed repricing and US PMI beats outweighed strong Eurozone PMI and IFO data. Over the past two days price has compressed into a 1.1359-1.1399 range, with the swing low tested three times, while RSI sits oversold and ATR(14) near 21 pips has eased from the breakdown bars.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1399, 1.1450, 1.1495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1359 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1340 key pivot cited as support
H4 close above the 1.1399 range high opens a retrace into the last-leg fib zone (1.1411-1.1443) and the 1.1450 prior pivot
Price holding below the lower-high line near 1.1460 keeps the downtrend structure intact; only a move back above the 1.1495 lower high breaks it
US Durable Goods, UoM inflation expectations and Fed's Williams today could shift October hike odds and move this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 29 · price 1.13733
Lower highs / lower lows since 1.1654; tight base 1.1359-1.1399.
EUR/USD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1654 high, shedding roughly 290 pips as hawkish Fed repricing and strong US PMIs outweighed solid eurozone data. The latest leg stalled into a tight base between the 1.1359 swing low and the 1.1399 lower high, with RSI in oversold territory and both EMAs overhead. ATR(14) near 21 pips has expanded versus the early-window regime, which fits trend extension rather than compression. The 1.1350 round number sits just under the swing low.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1399, 1.1430, 1.1497
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1359 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Close back above the 1.1399 lower high, then the 1.1430 breakdown level, would break the lower-high sequence
Descending trendline from 1.1556 caps near 1.1455; the 1.1497 prior high marks the last major lower high
The 38.2% fib retracement of the 1.1654-1.1359 swing sits near 1.1472
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read