Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 mid-month high.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 mid-month top, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both. The rebound from Tuesday's 1.1311 swing low, helped by the soft US PCE, stalled at 1.1380, where the fib 38.2 of the 1.1495–1.1311 leg meets the lower-high trendline off the 1.1410 swing high. Hot German CPI failed to lift the euro after Lagarde capped October-hike bets. ATR(14) near 24 pips is well below the mid-month expansion.
Support: 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1311 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1300 round number in play
H4 close above the lower-high trendline and 1.1380 fib 38.2 opens the 1.1410 swing high; a reclaim of 1.14 would break the lower-high structure
Lagarde (13:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) on Thu could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; price testing descending trendline.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence intact since the 1.1654 swing top, with the latest leg to the 1.1311 swing low extending the move toward the 1.13 range floor as USD strength and Lagarde's pushback outweighed hot German and Italian CPI beats. The bounce from the week low has stalled at the descending trendline near 1.1355, just under the 50–61.8% fib retracement of the 1.1410–1.1311 swing. Price is below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) around 21 pips shows a steady, not expanding, regime.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1355, 1.1373, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1373 and then the 1.1410 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the descending trendline keeps the downtrend read intact; a loss of the 1.1329 week low exposes the 1.1311 swing low
Sustained break below the 1.13 range floor would mark a range break of the yearly base
Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m), Schnabel today and Lagarde Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1654 top, retesting descending trendline.
Lower highs and lower lows run from the 1.1654 top. The pullback from the 1.1410 swing high extended to a 16-month swing low at 1.1311, after dollar strength and a dovish Lagarde kept EUR heavy. The rebound from 1.1311 held a minor low at 1.1329, helped by hot French and Italian CPI prints, and is now pressing the descending trendline near 1.1357, just under the fib 50% at 1.1361. Price sits below both EMAs, and ATR(14) near 20 pips shows a steady regime rather than compression.
Support: 1.1329, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1361, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
German HICP at 12:00 UTC and US ADP/core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H4 close above the descending trendline and the fib 50% at 1.1361 opens the lower high at 1.1391
A close above the 1.1410 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1329 minor low exposes the 1.1311 swing low and the 1.1300 round number, the floor of the yearly range
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 swing high.
EURUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs since topping at 1.1654. The pair stepped down through 1.1600, 1.1460 and 1.1360, with USD firm on Fed-hike repricing near YTD highs. The latest leg made a 1.1311 swing low, and price is now bouncing back toward the 1.1360 broken low. That level sits beneath the 1.1410 lower high, which also lines up with the 50% fib of the 1.1498 swing high → 1.1311 leg. Price is below both EMAs and ATR(14) is steady near 20 pips, which reads as orderly trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1360, 1.1410, 1.1498
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1360 broken low turns the bounce into a test of the lower-high trendline
A break above the 1.1410 lower high (50% fib zone) would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1311 swing low extends the lower-low pattern toward the 1.1300 round number
German HICP (12:00 UTC) and US ADP/core PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Lower highs / lower lows since the 1.1654 early-month high.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 early-month peak, with each bounce capped below a descending trendline. The move reflects a hawkish Fed and Lagarde's pushback on an October ECB hike. Price tagged a fresh swing low at 1.1311, briefly below the 1.1324 YTD mark, before recovering to 1.1332. Both EMAs sit overhead with EMA20 below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 20 pips shows a steady grind rather than compression.
Support: 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1359, 1.1382, 1.1410
What it said to watch
German prelim CPI at 12:00 UTC, then US ADP and PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.1311 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
Recovery above the 1.1359 prior low and the 1.1382 fib 38.2 would mark the first retracement of the 1.1495-1.1311 leg
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.1410 swing high breaks the lower-high structure
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the early-month 1.1654 peak, with the 1.1495 and 1.1410 swing highs capping each rebound as Lagarde's pushback on an October ECB hike collides with roughly 68% Fed hike odds. The latest leg pushed through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 swing low before the next bar closed back above it, a tentative false break with price still below both EMAs and EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) near 20 pips is steady rather than compressing, and the 50% retrace of the 1.1495-1.1311 leg lines up with the 1.1410 swing high.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1359, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.1311 swing low turns the false break into a lower-low extension, with 1.1300 round number next
Recovery above the 1.1359 prior low and the lower-highs line would signal the downtrend losing traction
Close above the 1.1410 swing high (fib 50% zone) breaks the lower-high sequence
German/EU CPI prints and US ADP/Core PCE today could materially shift this read around the 1.1324 ytd low