19:02 UTC
Downtrend since the January 2026 high, price below EMA50 · RSI 44 · price 1.13562
Lower highs since 1.2083, retesting the June 2026 low at the cycle low.
The regime turned to a downtrend after the late-January spike to the 2026 high at 1.2083. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 1.1849 (Apr), 1.1797 (May) and the 1.1711 lower high (Aug), all capped by a descending trendline, and price now sits back under the W1 EMA50 near 1.1585. This week retested the June low and printed a cycle low at 1.1311, the weakest level since May 2025, as French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy and the 29K US payrolls miss produced only a muted bounce. Below 1.1311, the next multi-quarter references are the 1.1200 round number and the May-25 low at 1.1065.
Support: 1.1311, 1.1200, 1.1065
Resistance: 1.1585, 1.1711, 1.2083
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 1.1311 cycle low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the May-25 low at 1.1065.
- A recovery through the ema50 near 1.1585 and the descending trendline (~1.1635) would neutralise the downtrend read.
- The 1.1711 lower high, near the 50% fib of the Jan high to cycle low decline, is the structural pivot for the regime.
- French OAT spread headlines and Monday's US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) are the near-term macro risks to this read.