Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; descending channel.
EURUSD has printed five successive lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654, with French fiscal stress and oil driving the slide to a 16-month week low at 1.1215. The 29K NFP miss sparked a bounce that is stalling at the post-NFP high near 1.1285, the 38.2% fib of the 1.1380-1.1215 leg, with price still below EMA20 and EMA50 and well under the lower-high trendline. ATR(14) has expanded to about 33 pips, roughly double its level at the start of the window, which fits a trend-extension regime rather than compression.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline read
Repeated rejection at the post-NFP high 1.1285 and ema20 near 1.1300 keeps the descending channel intact
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low exposes the 1.1200 round number, with 1.1111 cited below
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed hike odds
French OAT yield and budget headlines are the main unscheduled risk to the EUR side
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 33 · price 1.12329
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 high; shallow bounce off cycle low.
EURUSD has carved successive lower highs from 1.1654 down to the 1.1380 lower high. The 1.1311 prior low gave way this week as French fiscal stress and rising global yields pushed price to a 1.1215 swing low. The rebound has stalled at the 1.1269 bounce high, short of the 38.2% retracement of the latest leg, and price sits below EMA20 (~1.1293), which is below EMA50. The bar covering the soft US payrolls print closed lower at 1.1233, so the dollar-negative miss has yet to show up on this chart, while ATR near 30 pips is well above early-window readings.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.13114, 1.13797
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1269 bounce high would extend the bounce toward EMA20 and the 50% fib near 1.1295
Reclaiming the 1.1311 prior low would break the lower-high sequence along the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1215 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Nagel speech 19:35 UTC today and Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Fresh French budget headlines remain an unscheduled tail risk for EUR
Lower highs and lower lows since early-September top; shallow rebound from 1.1215.
EURUSD has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 early-September top, capped by a descending lower-highs line now near 1.1356. The latest leg cut through the prior lows around 1.1320 and printed a yearly low at 1.1215 as French fiscal stress and a firm dollar weighed. The rebound is shallow and still below the 38.2% fib of the 1.1410–1.1215 swing at 1.1290, with price under both EMAs, EMA20 below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 29 pips after expanding on the breakdown.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1290, 1.1320, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 38.2% fib at 1.1290 would mark the first higher high since the yearly low
A break below the 1.1215 yearly low exposes the 1.1200 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the prior lows near 1.1320 and the 1.1380 swing high would break the lower-highs structure
Eurozone flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 mid-September top.
EURUSD has printed a clean lower-high sequence since the 1.1654 mid-September top, capped by a descending trendline. This week the 1.1311–1.1320 floor gave way, and Thursday's ISM prices-paid surge drove an 80-pip H4 leg to the 1.1215 ytd low. Price is now basing just above the 1.1250 pivot, below both EMAs, with ATR(14) expanding near 28 pips. The 38.2–50% fib retrace of the last leg sits at 1.1278–1.1297, just under the 1.1300 round number.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1380, 1.1410
What it said to watch
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close back above the 1.1300 round number reclaims the former floor and the fib 50% zone
A break of the 1.1215 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 psych level
Only a close above the 1.1380 lower high and the descending trendline (~1.1365) breaks the swing structure; the 1.1410 prior high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.1250 pivot keeps the post-ISM low in focus
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, range expanding · RSI 36 · price 1.12485
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654 early-Sept high.
EURUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs (1.1495, 1.1410, 1.1380) and lower lows over three weeks. The latest leg broke the 1.1311 prior low and set a new swing low at 1.1216 on an 80-pip bar, as dearer oil, French spread stress and a firm dollar outweighed the hot HICP beat. Price is pinned below both EMAs, and ATR(14) near 29 pips shows expansion rather than compression. The modest bounce sits under the 1.1290 broken low, near the 38.2% retrace of the 1.1410–1.1216 leg.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1290, 1.1311, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1290 broken low, then the 1.1311 prior low, would mark the first meaningful counter-move in the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1216 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number and extends the lower-low structure
A break above the 1.1380 lower high and the falling trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
EZ flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read