21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce underway · RSI 36 · price 1.12501
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654; small base above 1.1215.
EURUSD has carved lower highs along a falling trendline from 1.1495, and broke the 1.1312–1.1380 shelf (prior low to swing high) this week on French fiscal stress. That break ran to a 16-month swing low at 1.1215, and ATR(14) expanded to around 31 pips. The soft 29K NFP print produced a bounce that stalled at 1.1285, just under the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1380 to 1.1215 decline. Price is holding below both EMA20 and EMA50, and the EMAs remain bearishly stacked.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1312, 1.1380
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.1285 bounce high and the 38.2% fib reclaims retracement territory toward the 1.1312 prior low
- Failure to hold the 1.1215 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
- A move back above 1.1380 swing high would breach the lower highs trendline and break the downtrend structure
- Weekend French budget headlines are a Monday gap risk; EZ PMIs, ECB speakers and US ISM Services on Mon 5 Oct could materially shift this read