Lower highs and lower lows since mid-September; bouncing off a fresh 17-month low.
Clean lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1650s mid-September high, with the lower highs sequence running from 1.1410 and 1.1380. Monday's French fiscal stress and the broad USD bid pushed price through the 1.1215 shelf to the 1.1161 17m low, even after Friday's soft NFP. Price is now retesting that broken shelf from below, near the 50% fib of the 1.1285–1.1161 leg and just above the 1.1200 round number. It holds below both EMAs. ATR(14) has expanded to ~36 pips from the high-teens earlier in the window, which points to trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1380 prior high
Rejection at the ema20 near 1.1245 / 61.8% fib keeps the retest within the downtrend
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1161 17m low; a break there extends the lower-low structure
Eurozone Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone/Elderson (Tue 13:00 UTC) could shift this read; hawkish ECB rhetoric is the main squeeze risk
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and French spread headlines could materially move the pair
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; pausing near the 1.12 handle.
EUR/USD has carved a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654, with each bounce capped beneath a descending line of lower highs. The latest leg, driven by French fiscal contagion and broad USD strength, reached a 1.1161 swing low before price steadied around the 1.12 psych handle, still below the 38.2% fib of the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1161 move. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 37 pips, and EMA20 holds below EMA50 with price under both, a trend-extension profile rather than compression.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1161 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
Sustained trade back below the 1.12 psych handle reopens the swing low
Rejection at the 38.2% fib near 1.1245 keeps the descending structure intact
Any ECB TPI or spread-compression signal (Cipollone/Elderson Tue 13:00 UTC) could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; bounce off 1.1161 low.
Four weeks of lower highs and lower lows have taken the pair from 1.1654 to a 1.1161 swing low, the 17-month low. The digest ties the slide to French fiscal stress and wider spreads. Price has bounced back to the 1.1200 psych pivot but remains below the ema20 near 1.1255, below EMA50 and below the descending trendline off the 1.1410 high. ATR(14) has expanded to about 38 pips from the mid-20s earlier in the window, which fits a trend that is extending rather than compressing.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1255, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.1285 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the ema20 and 38.2% fib zone near 1.1245-1.1255 keeps the downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the 1.1200 psych pivot exposes the 1.1161 swing low; a break below it confirms a new lower-low
Eurozone Retail Sales and the Cipollone/Elderson ECB remarks on Tue are risk for the EUR leg
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654; fresh low at 1.1161.
EURUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs (1.1498, 1.1410, 1.1380, 1.1285) and lower lows since the 1.1654 top, with EMA20 holding below EMA50 throughout. Today's leg broke the 1.1215 prior low and set a swing low at 1.1161 as French fiscal and spread stress weighed on EUR and the dollar drew haven demand. ATR(14) has expanded to about 37 pips from roughly 20 early in the window, and RSI is in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 1.1215 prior low would mark the break as a false break and open a retracement toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1245
Failure to hold the 1.1161 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
A recovery through the 1.1285 swing high would end the lower-high run from the 1.1380 lower high
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Any backstop language on spreads from ECB's Schnabel or Escrivá could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; range floor at 1.1215 broken.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 high on 9 Sep. Price capped under a lower-high trendline, and the latest bar broke the 1.1215 prior low and the Thursday–Friday range to a fresh low at 1.1161. French fiscal stress and safe-haven USD demand outweighed Friday's 29K NFP miss, which only lifted the pair to the 1.1285 swing high. ATR(14) has expanded to ~34 pips from ~20 in mid-September, RSI(14) near 22 is oversold, and the 38.2% fib of the 1.1380–1.1161 leg sits at 1.1244.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1244, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1215 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1161 fresh low exposes 1.1111 next support and the 1.1100 round number
Recovery through the 1.1244 38.2% fib and the 1.1285 swing high would break the lower-high sequence; the lower-high trendline sits near 1.1320
Eurozone PMIs and ECB Lane/Nagel/Schnabel this morning, then US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; tight base 1.1215-1.1285.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows across the window, sliding from 1.1654 to a 16-month swing low at 1.1215 on French fiscal stress. The soft 29K NFP print lifted it to the nfp high at 1.1285, about 38% of the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1215 leg, and price now sits in a small base below both EMAs. ATR(14) near 30 pips is off last week's expansion, with the lower-highs trendline near 1.1320 still capping the structure.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 nfp high opens the 50-61.8% fib zone and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1320
Break of the 1.1215 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Only a move through the 1.1380 swing high breaks the lower-highs structure
Eurozone Services PMIs and Lane/Schnabel remarks Mon morning UTC could materially shift this read
US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) Mon 14:00 UTC tests the post-NFP USD softness