Lower highs since Wednesday; tight 1.1186–1.1225 range after 1.1161 low.
Highs have stepped lower from Wednesday's 1.1380 spike to Friday's NFP high at 1.1285 and Monday's 1.1261. A 65-pip Asia session drop on Monday cut through Thursday's 1.1215 low to a 17-month low at 1.1161, driven by French spread contagion and a firm USD bid. London recovered to the 1.12 handle, and NY then held a 1.1186–1.1225 range; price sits just above the EMA20 at 1.1215 but is capped at the EMA50 near 1.1230 and the 50% retracement of the NFP-high-to-low leg.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 1.1259, which also clears the lower-high trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the EMA20 and the 1.1186 NY low reopens the 17-month low at 1.1161
Rejection at the EMA50 and the 50% fib keeps the bounce corrective
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC and ECB Cipollone/Elderson plus Fed Williams from 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
French fiscal or OAT-Bund spread headlines remain an unscheduled driver
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, corrective recovery off the low · RSI 52 · price 1.12231
Lower highs from 1.1380; higher lows off 1.1161.
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1380 NY-open peak through Friday's post-NFP spike to the 1.1285 nfp high define the H1 downtrend. Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 week low came on French fiscal contagion and broad USD demand. Since then price has printed higher lows through London and NY, reclaiming the EMA(20) and the 1.1200 round number, and now presses the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% retrace of Monday's drop at the 1.1225 day high, with RSI(14) back near 52 but price still under EMA(50) around 1.1234.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and 1.1225 day high opens the path to the 1.1259 weekly open; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1215 and the 1.1200 round number undercuts the recovery; a break of the 1.1186 higher low exposes the 1.1161 week low
Tue 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales, 13:00 UTC ECB Cipollone/Elderson and Fed's Williams/Bowman could materially shift this read
Fresh OAT-Bund widening headlines remain an unscheduled risk to the higher lows sequence
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak; post-low higher low at 1.1186.
Thursday's London and NY sessions broke the pair below 1.1300. The NFP-miss bounce to the 1.1285 friday high faded, and Monday's Asia-session drop on French spread contagion and broad USD demand printed a 1.1161 week low, well below the 1.1259 weekly open. The recovery has built a higher low at 1.1186 with price back above EMA(20) near 1.1213, but the 1.1222 intraday cap, close to the 50% retrace of the Friday–Monday leg, has rejected two attempts, in the London morning and again late in NY. RSI(14) is back to the 50 area and price remains under EMA(50), so the lower-high sequence is intact.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1222 intraday cap and 50% retrace opens the path to the 1.1259 weekly open
Loss of EMA(20) and a break of the 1.1186 higher low along the rebound trendline returns focus to the 1.1161 week low
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC and ECB Cipollone/Elderson Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday are USD-side risk during NY hours
Unscheduled French fiscal or OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main driver of EUR moves
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising off the 17-month low · RSI 52 · price 1.12143
Lower highs since Wednesday; Monday higher lows off 1.1161.
Lower highs have defined the window since Wednesday's NY-session peak at 1.1380. Thursday's London-NY selloff, a fade of Friday's NFP-miss bounce at the 1.1285 fri high, and an Asia-session flush on Monday to the 1.1161 17m low all came as French fiscal contagion widened Eurozone spreads and kept the USD bid. Since that low, Monday's higher lows (ny low 1.1186) have carried price back to the 1.12 handle, at the 23.6% retrace of the Wed high–17m low drop. Price is hugging EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 51, while the london high at 1.1220 caps the rebound.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ny low at 1.1186 breaks Monday's higher lows and exposes the 17m low at 1.1161
Acceptance above the london high at 1.1220 opens the 38.2% retrace near 1.1245 and the weekly open at 1.1259
A move through the fri high at 1.1285 and the lower-highs trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC, ECB Cipollone/Elderson and Fed Williams Tue ~13:00 UTC could shift this read; French spread headlines remain the unscheduled risk
Lower highs intact; tight 1.1186–1.1220 range below 50% retrace.
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1380 and Friday's NFP-driven lower high at 1.1285 define the week, and Monday's Asia-session drop to the 1.1161 17-month low came on French spread widening and broad USD demand. The rebound through London stalled at the 1.1220 day high, just under the 50% retrace of the Friday–Monday leg. NY has held a range between the 1.1186 ny low and the day high, with price pinned to a flat EMA(20) near 1.1211, RSI(14) near 49 and EMA(50) overhead near 1.1234.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1220 day high and 50% retrace opens a test of the 1.1259 weekly open
Break of Monday's higher-low trendline (~1.1195) and the 1.12 handle exposes the ny low at 1.1186
Failure at the 1.1186 ny low brings the 1.1161 17-month low back into play, extending the lower-highs sequence
Tue 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales and 13:00 UTC ECB Cipollone/Elderson speeches could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and unscheduled French fiscal headlines are the larger event risk for the range
Lower highs and lower lows from Wednesday; post-flush range 1.1186–1.1220.
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. The dominant legs were Thursday's London-into-NY slide and Monday's Asia-session flush to the 17-month low at 1.1161, as French fiscal contagion resumed, while Friday's NFP-miss spike to 1.1285 faded quickly. The bounce from Monday's low has been capped at the 1.1220 range top, just shy of the 50% retrace. Price is now compressing on Monday's higher lows above the 1.1186 range low, sitting on the 1.12 pivot just under EMA(20) at 1.1210, with RSI(14) back near 47 from the low 30s.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1220, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1220 range top opens the 1.1259 weekly open and the 50% retrace zone
Break of the 1.1186 range low and Monday's higher lows line puts the 1.1161 17m low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.12 pivot while EMA(20) caps keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Tue Retail Sales (09:00 UTC) and ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 UTC) could shift this read; OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the dominant driver
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially extend or reverse the week's move
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak; tight 1.1186–1.1220 range above the 1.1161 low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. Thursday's NY selloff and Monday's Asia-session flush to the 17m low at 1.1161 tracked French fiscal contagion rather than data, which was largely in line. The London rebound stalled at the 1.1220 day high, just above the 23.6% fib of the week's decline and EMA(20) near 1.1212, while the NY low at 1.1186 and the round number 1.1200 have held the range with RSI(14) flat near 53.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1220 day high clears the 23.6% fib and EMA(20), opening the path to the weekly open at 1.1259
Lower-high line from Wednesday's peak through Friday's nfp high at 1.1285 remains the structural cap on rebounds
Loss of the round number 1.1200 and the NY low at 1.1186 exposes the 17m low at 1.1161; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Tue Factory Orders (06:00 UTC), Retail Sales (09:00 UTC) and ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 UTC) plus French spread headlines could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the main scheduled USD risk this week
Lower highs since Wednesday; Monday higher lows under the 1.1220 rebound high.
Lower highs run from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak through Friday's post-NFP 1.1285 spike. French debt stress then drove a 60-pip drop ahead of London open from the 1.1259 weekly open to the 1.1161 17m low. Price has since printed higher lows at 1.1169 and 1.1186 but is consolidating under the 1.1220 rebound high and pinned at EMA(20) near 1.1212, roughly the 23.6% level of the week decline fib, with RSI(14) near 45 recovering from oversold without reclaiming 50.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1220, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1220 rebound high ends the consolidation and opens the 1.1259 weekly open
Loss of the 1.1186 higher low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.1161 17m low
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak; Monday rebound capped at ema20.
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak: 1.1285 after Friday's NFP, then 1.1220 today. Monday's Asia session dropped about 60 pips from the 1.1259 weekly open to the 1.1161 monday low as French debt contagion hit EUR. The London rebound printed a higher low at 1.1169 but stalled at the 1.1220 london high, just above the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday–Monday drop, with ema20 near 1.1210 capping it. The NY session faded price back below 1.12, and ISM prices paid at 74 kept the dollar supported.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1220, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 monday low (17-month low area) extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above ema20 and the 1.1220 london high breaks the lower-high read and opens the 1.1259 weekly open
Loss of the 1.1169 higher low puts Monday's low back in play
Tue 13:00 UTC ECB Cipollone/Elderson: any TPI or slower-QT signal could trigger a sharp EUR short-covering move
Tue 09:00 UTC EZ Retail Sales and Fed Williams/Bowman later Tuesday could shift the read; OAT-Bund spreads remain the primary driver
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; Monday rebound capped in a 1.1200–1.1220 band.
Lower highs run from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak to Friday's post-NFP 1.1285 friday high. Monday's Asia-session slide on French debt stress pushed the low to 1.1161. London rebuilt price above the 1.1200 round number, but the rebound has stalled at the 1.1220 london high, just under the 50% retracement of the Friday-Monday leg, with price pinned at EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 44. The weekly open at 1.1259 and the lower-highs trendline sit above as the next overhead layers.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
US ISM Services (f/c 55) at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 1.1200 round number and the rebound lows trendline exposes the monday low at 1.1161
H1 close above the 1.1220 london high and 50% retracement opens the path to the weekly open at 1.1259
Tue Eurozone Retail Sales (09:00 UTC) and ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 UTC); any TPI signal could change the read
Lower highs from 1.1380, bounce capped near ema20.
Lower highs have run from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. The NFP high at 1.1285 failed Friday, and Monday's Asia session broke to a monday low at 1.1161, a 17-month low, as French spread stress hit EUR well below the weekly open at 1.1259. The London rebound built higher lows but met rejection at the 1.1220 session high, just above ema20 (~1.1215) and short of the 38.2–50% fib zone of the Friday-to-Monday drop, and now holds above the 1.1196 session low with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1220 session high and ema20 opens the 50% fib near 1.1223 and then the 1.1259 weekly open
Break of the 1.1196 session low and the Monday higher lows trendline puts the 1.1161 monday low back in focus
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC and ECB Cipollone/Elderson Tue 13:00 UTC are event risk for the bounce
Lower highs since Wednesday; Monday recovery from lows pinned near 1.1200.
EUR/USD opened the week at 1.1259 (weekly open) and dropped 60 pips in the Asia session as French OAT-Bund spreads widened, printing a 17-month low at 1.1161 before London recovered it to a 1.1220 session high, roughly the 23.6% fib of the Wednesday–Monday decline. Price is now compressing around the 1.1200 round number just under EMA(20) near 1.1215, with RSI(14) back to ~44 from oversold. The wider sequence of lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1380 top remains intact, and the post-NFP Friday high at 1.1285 sits on that line.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11689, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12587, 1.12851
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1220 session high and EMA(20) opens the path to the weekly open at 1.1259 and the 38.2% fib near 1.1245
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number and a break of the recovery line exposes the 1.1169 higher low and the 17-month low at 1.1161
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print adds to Friday's NFP miss
Fresh French or Italian spread headlines remain the dominant unscheduled risk to the lower-highs structure
Only a move through the Friday high at 1.1285 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Lower highs and lower lows; corrective bounce capped below EMA20.
Lower highs run from 1.1380 on Wednesday to 1.1285, the nfp high from Friday's post-payrolls spike, and then to the 1.1259 weekly open. The decisive leg came in today's Asia session as French fiscal stress hit EUR, taking price to the 17m low at 1.1161. The London rebound stalled at the 1.1220 london high, near EMA(20) and the 50% retracement of the Friday-to-Monday drop, and price is back on the 1.1200 round number with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rebound line and the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1161 17m low
Reclaim of the 1.1220 london high and EMA(20) opens the 61.8% fib near 1.1238 and the 1.1259 weekly open
A close above the 1.1285 nfp high breaks the lower-high sequence
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
French OAT-Bund spread headlines and EZ Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC remain the main EUR drivers
Lower highs since Wednesday; retest of broken support from below.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. Thursday's NY selloff and a 60-pip Asia-session drop on Monday, driven by French fiscal stress, extended the move to the 1.1161 17m low. The London rebound has stalled at 1.1220, where last week's broken low, EMA(20) near 1.1217 and the 50-61.8% zone of the Monday drop converge. RSI(14) has recovered from sub-30 to 43 but remains below 50.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1220 broken low and EMA(20) reopens the 1.1259 weekly open and the lower-highs line
Rejection at 1.1220 and a break of the 1.1169 higher low exposes the 1.1161 17m low
Close above the 1.1285 nfp high invalidates the lower-high sequence
ECB Escrivá at 10:40 UTC and US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; new low at 1.1161, recovery stalling below ema20.
Lower highs have stepped down from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. Thursday's NY-session drop took out 1.1215, and Friday's post-NFP spike faded below the friday high at 1.1285. The Asia session today saw a 65-pip break to the monday low at 1.1161 as French spread stress hit EUR, but London has since lifted price back above the 1.1200 round number to the 38.2% fib. That rebound now sits just under the ema20 near 1.1219, which lines up with last week's 1.1215 low, while RSI(14) has recovered to about 45 from below 30.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and the 50% fib near 1.1223 would turn the bounce into a broader retest of the weekly open at 1.1259
Failure back below the 1.1200 round number would leave the monday low at 1.1161 exposed
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Schnabel/Escrivá remarks and OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main unscheduled EUR risk
A move above the lower highs trendline, last capped at 1.1285, would break the week's structure
Lower highs 1.1380 / 1.1285 / 1.1261, lower low at 1.1161 after a range break.
Monday's Asia session produced the dominant move. A 60-pip hourly drop broke Thursday's 1.1215 low and 1.1200, reaching the 1.1161 monday low as French spread stress and a haven USD bid hit the euro. That extends the lower-high sequence from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. The London open bounce capped at the 1.1207 session high, just under the 38.2% retrace of the Friday-high-to-Monday-low leg, and price is back below 1.1200 with the EMA(20) near 1.1219 and RSI(14) recovering only to 37.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1219, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1219 ema20 softens the lower-high read and puts the 1.1259 weekly open back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1161 monday low opens 1.1111, the next support cited by BBH
Eurozone HCOB PMIs and ECB's Lane around this hour, then US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 1.1207 session high keeps the 1.1200 retest from below intact; French budget headlines are an unscheduled risk
Lower highs since Wednesday; Thu–Fri floor broken in Asia.
H1 has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. Monday's Asia session broke the Thursday–Friday floor near 1.1215 with a 65-pip bar to a 1.1161 Monday low, as French fiscal contagion fears hit EUR and safe-haven flows lifted USD. Into the London open, price has retraced about a third of that leg and sits just under the 1.1200 round number and the 38.2% fib, with EMA(20) and the 61.8% level stacked at 1.1223 overhead and RSI(14) back to 33.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1223, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1200 round number would put the broken level under test; rejection there keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Acceptance above ema20/61.8% at 1.1223 would neutralise the Asia breakdown, with the weekly open at 1.1259 next
Break of the 1.1161 Monday low exposes the may-25 low near 1.1150
EZ PMIs plus ECB's Lane (08:00 UTC) and Schnabel (09:00 UTC), then US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower-highs trendline from Wednesday's peak sits near 1.1252 and caps any extended recovery
Lower highs have run since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. Friday's NFP-driven bounce stalled at the 1.1285 nfp high and was fully unwound into Friday's close. Renewed French budget stress then drove a 65-pip Asia-session drop on Monday, through Thursday's 1.1215 low (the thu low) to a 1.1166 asia low. Price sits well below EMA(20) near 1.1236 and RSI(14) is oversold near 22, with the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday-Monday drop sitting at the broken thu low.
Support: 1.1166, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1236, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1215 thu low would turn Monday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1166 asia low exposes the 1.1111 BBH level flagged in the macro digest
Recovery through EMA(20) near 1.1236 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1260 would neutralise the downtrend read
Eurozone Composite PMI (08:00 UTC, f/c 53.1) and ECB Lane/Schnabel could trigger a short-covering pop given crowded positioning
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read in the NY session
Rejection from the nfp high at 1.1285 remains the upper boundary of this week's structure