Monday's Asia-session flush to the 17-month low at 1.1161 reversed. Price has built higher lows since then, and Tuesday's leg ran from the 1.1203 tuesday low at London open to the 1.1276 week high into the NY open as France filed its budget and DXY slipped under 102.00. Price is back above the 1.1259 weekly open and EMA(20) at 1.1248, with RSI(14) near 61. It has compressed in a 1.1254–1.1265 band since NY hours, below the week high and Friday's 1.1285 nfp high.
Support: 1.12587, 1.12483, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12764, 1.12851, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1276 week high opens the path to the 1.1285 nfp high and the 1.1300 round number
Loss of the weekly open and the ema20 near 1.1248 shifts focus to the 38.2% Mon-Tue rally fib at 1.1232 and the higher-low line
Failure to hold the 1.1203 tuesday low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1161 Monday low back in view
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker) could materially shift this read, especially if they revive October-hike talk
ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC is a second event risk for EUR within the week
Higher lows since Monday's 1.1161 low; tight consolidation just under the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Monday drop.
Monday's Asia session flush to 1.1161, a 17-month low, set the week low. Price has since built a higher-low sequence and recovered to the 1.1259 weekly open as the USD eased with DXY back under 102.00. Tuesday's London open drove the leg to the 1.1276 week high, a rejection just above the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Monday drop. Since then price has compressed in a 20-pip band above EMA(20) near 1.1249, with the Tuesday NY low at 1.1244 underneath.
Support: 1.12587, 1.12444, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12764, 1.12851, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1276 week high exposes Friday's post-payrolls nfp high at 1.1285 and the 1.1300 round number
Loss of the weekly open and the tue ny low at 1.1244 (EMA20 / 50% fib area) breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.1200 round number back in view
German Industrial Production Wed 06:00 UTC, ahead of the London open, could challenge the consolidation
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish read lifting DXY back above 102.00 would pressure the bounce
20:03 UTC
Uptrend off weekly low, stalling under highs · RSI 66 · price 1.12614
Higher lows since Monday, consolidating at weekly open.
EUR/USD has retraced most of Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 weekly low. Since then it has carved higher lows into a London-led break on Tuesday as the USD slipped below DXY 102.00 and French spreads narrowed, despite the -10.6% German factory orders miss. The advance stalled at the 1.12764 Tuesday high, just shy of Friday's post-NFP 1.12851 friday high, and the NY-session dip held at a 1.12444 pullback low beside a rising EMA(20) that has now crossed above EMA(50). Price is consolidating around the 1.12587 weekly open with RSI(14) near 66 after a brief overbought reading at the midday high.
Support: 1.12587, 1.12444, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12764, 1.12851, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.12444 pullback low and EMA(20) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.12027 tuesday low, near the 61.8% retrace of the weekly low–tuesday high leg
Close above the 1.12851 friday high opens the path toward the 1.1300 round number; repeated rejection at the 1.12764 tuesday high keeps the consolidation intact
Loss of rising support from the weekly low (~1.1221) would mark a shift from the V-shaped recovery to a deeper retracement
German Industrial Production Wed 06:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Rebound from weekly low within broader downtrend · RSI 64 · price 1.12638
Higher lows from 1.1161, lower highs capping at 1.1276–1.1285.
EUR/USD has retraced roughly 60% of the slide from the 1.1336 swing high to Monday's Asia-session 1.1161 weekly low, stacking higher lows since. Tuesday's London rally reached the 1.1276 tuesday high, just above the 61.8% retrace, as the USD eased on softer yields and lower oil while weak euro-area data was largely ignored. The NY-session dip held the 1.1244 retest low and price is back above the 1.1259 weekly open with RSI(14) near 64, though supply at the 1.1285 nfp high and the tuesday high keeps a lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 1.1259, 1.1244, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1285, 1.1336
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1285 nfp high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path toward the 1.1336 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1244 retest low and the higher-lows trendline would expose the 1.1161 weekly low
German Industrial Production Wed 06:00 UTC: a negative print vs 0.5% forecast could weigh on the rebound
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
EURUSD has rebuilt from Monday's Asia-session drop to the 17-month low at 1.1161. It printed a higher low at 1.1203 early Tuesday before London drove a breakout through Monday's 1.1224 range top, helped by a softer USD and lower oil despite the -10.6% German factory orders miss. The rally met rejection at the Tuesday high of 1.1276, just under Friday's post-NFP high at 1.1285, which extends the lower highs line from that Friday peak. NY hours have pulled price back to the weekly open near 1.1259, with the pullback low at 1.1244 sitting just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) easing toward 60.
Support: 1.1244, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1259, 1.1276, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1276 tuesday high and 1.1285 friday high breaks the lower highs line and opens 1.1300
Loss of the 1.1244 pullback low and EMA(20) exposes the 1.1203 higher low and the 38.2% fib near 1.1232
A break below the 1.1203 higher low invalidates the higher lows sequence and puts the 17-month low at 1.1161 back in view
EZ Industrial Production Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 0.5%) and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend off Monday low, pausing below week high · RSI 63 · price 1.12618
Higher lows since 1.1161; pullback holding above weekly open.
Monday's Asia-session break below Thursday's 1.1215 base reached the 1.1161 17-month low, then failed to hold. The rebound has since printed a series of higher lows, and Tuesday's London open added about 30 pips as the USD eased on lower oil and yields, despite the German factory orders and retail sales misses. NY faded the move from the 1.12764 week high to the 1.12444 pullback low. Price is now holding just above the 1.12587 weekly open, above both EMAs, with RSI(14) in the low 60s and Friday's 1.12851 NFP high sitting just overhead.
Support: 1.12587, 1.12444, 1.12027
Resistance: 1.12764, 1.12851, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.12764 week high exposes the 1.12851 NFP high and the 1.1300 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.12444 pullback low puts the 1.12027 tuesday low and the higher-lows trendline in play
A break of the higher-lows trendline would undo the rebound structure
EZ Industrial Production Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 0.5%) and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Rebound from week low, stalling below Friday high · RSI 60 · price 1.12558
Higher lows since Monday's low; lower high under Friday's peak.
Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 week low proved a false break of Thursday's 1.1215 low. Price reclaimed that level and printed higher lows at 1.1187 and 1.1203, and London drove a push to a 1.1276 day high today on a softer USD and lower oil, despite the -10.6% German factory orders miss. The advance was rejected below the 1.1285 Friday high, setting a lower high, and price has slipped back to the weekly open near 1.1259, still above the EMA(20) near 1.1238 with RSI(14) around 60.
Support: 1.1238, 1.12027, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12587, 1.12764, 1.12851
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1285 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the ema20 near 1.1238, then the 1.1203 tuesday low, would end the higher-lows structure and expose the week low at 1.1161
Price acceptance below the weekly open at 1.1259 keeps the day-high rejection in play
EZ Industrial Production (Wed 06:00 GMT) and FOMC minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Recovery leg inside a broader downtrend · RSI 60 · price 1.12523
Higher lows since Monday's low; Tuesday's high sits below Friday's.
EUR/USD has climbed off Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 week low, carving higher lows through London and NY. Tuesday's London-session push to a 1.1276 week high came on the oil pullback, not the weak German factory-orders data, but it stalled below Friday's 1.1285 nfp high and faded back to 1.1250, just under the weekly open, as RSI(14) eased from ~69 to ~60. Price still holds above the EMA(20) near 1.1235, which lines up with the 38.2% level of the Monday-Tuesday rally fib.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1285
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1276 week high opens a test of Friday's 1.1285 nfp high
A failure to hold the ema20 near 1.1235, then a break of the higher-low trendline near 1.1216, would undercut the rebound structure, with the 1.1203 tuesday low next
A break below the 1.1161 week low resumes the dominant downtrend
Bowman speaks at 14:45 UTC today; German IP (Wed 06:00 UTC) and the FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.1161, breakout rejected below Friday high.
EUR/USD has retraced all of Monday's Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 low, printing higher lows through Monday and breaking out at Tuesday's London open as oil eased and the dollar backed off its annual high, despite a run of EUR data misses led by German factory orders. The push stalled at a 1.1276 session high, just shy of Friday's NFP-driven high at 1.1285, and price has slipped back to retest the 1.1259 weekly open. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.1233, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Mon-Tue rally, while RSI(14) has eased from near 70 into the mid-60s.
Support: 1.1259, 1.1245, 1.1233
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1285, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1259 weekly open puts the 1.1245 breakout zone from London open back in focus
Close below EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib near 1.1233 exposes the higher-lows trendline around 1.1215
H1 close above the 1.1276 session high and the 1.1285 Friday high opens the 1.1300 round number
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.1161; Tuesday range break above weekly open.
Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 weekly low (a 17-month low) has been fully reversed, with a sequence of higher lows into Tuesday's 1.1203 low and EMA(20), near 1.1232, turning up underneath. London drove the move today, breaking the 1.1200–1.1250 range and reclaiming the 1.1259 weekly open to a 1.1271 session high. The digest ties the rebound to lower oil and some relief on French spreads despite soft Euro-area data. RSI(14) near 71 is overbought, and Friday's post-payrolls nfp high at 1.1285 is the next overhead reference.
Support: 1.1259, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1271, 1.1285, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1259 weekly open would put the range break at risk and return price to the 1.1200–1.1250 range
Failure to hold the 1.1203 tuesday low, which aligns with the 61.8% bounce fib and the higher-lows line, would end the higher-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.1285 nfp high opens the 1.1300 round number; rejection at the 1.1271 session high with RSI rolling over from overbought would mark a stall
ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 UTC) plus Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and unscheduled French fiscal headlines are the main risks to the bounce; a retest of the 1.1161 weekly low comes back into view if spreads widen again
12:01 UTC
Rebound from Monday low, higher lows within broader decline · RSI 65 · price 1.12439
Higher lows since Monday's flush; London-open break above Monday high.
EUR/USD gapped lower in Monday's Asia session to a week low at 1.1161, then built higher lows and spent Monday's NY session and the Asian range capped near the 1.1220 Monday high. A 30-pip London open bar pushed through that cap to a session high at 1.1248, with RSI(14) near 65 and price back above the EMA(20). The move came alongside lower oil and ignored today's German orders and EZ retail misses. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the drop from last Wednesday's 1.1380 high, just below the weekly open at 1.1259 and Friday's high at 1.1285.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1220, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1248, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) could materially shift this read in the NY session
H1 close back below the 1.1220 Monday high turns the London open move into a false break and puts the higher-low trendline in focus
Sustained trade above the 1.1259 weekly open exposes the 1.1285 Friday high and the 50% fib near 1.1270
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.1161 week low confirms a lower-low
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next high-impact risk
11:02 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday, rebounding since Monday's low · RSI 62 · price 1.12437
Higher lows since the 1.1161 low; price above the Asian high, testing 1.1250.
Monday's Asia-session false break to the 1.1161 week low came on Spain's snap-election news. Since then the pair has printed higher lows along a rising line and reclaimed the 61.8% of the Friday high-to-week low drop near 1.1238. Tuesday's London session broke above the 1.1231 asian high despite the German factory orders miss, with softer USD after Friday's weak NFP cushioning the pair, and price now presses the 1.1250 prior close, where bounces have been capped, with the 1.1261 week high just above.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1261, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1231 asian high would reopen Tuesday's range toward the 1.1203 day low
Clearance of the 1.1250 prior close and 1.1261 week high breaks the capped-bounce pattern, putting the 1.1285 friday high in view
Break of the higher lows line near 1.1209 and the day low would expose the 1.1161 week low
ADP 12:15, ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 and Fed Williams 13:05 UTC, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Rebound inside a broader decline, higher lows since Monday · RSI 61 · price 1.12437
Higher lows off the 1.1161 week low; Asian range broken higher, now pressing the 1.1250–1.1260 cap.
EURUSD has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 week low on Spain's snap-election news. Price then reclaimed Thursday's 1.1215 low and broke out of the 1.1203–1.1231 Asian range at Tuesday's London open, as softer USD offset the -10.6% German factory orders miss. Price is above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 61, holding above the 61.8% retracement of the Friday-to-Monday drop (1.1238) but pressing into the 1.1250 prior close and 1.1259 week open, where rebounds have been capped.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1231 asian high puts the breakout back inside the range
H1 close above the 1.1259 week open opens the path to the 1.1285 friday high
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1203 tuesday low exposes the 1.1161 week low
ADP (12:15 UTC), ECB Cipollone/Elderson (13:00) and Fed Williams (13:05) could shift this read during NY hours
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the main scheduled USD risk this week
Higher lows since 1.1161; testing lower-high sequence.
Monday's Asia-session drop on Spain's snap-election news printed the 1.1161 week low. Every dip since has formed a higher low, and the German factory orders plunge only pressed price to the 1.1203 today low before the London open lifted it through the 1.1231 asia high. Price now holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 64, testing the 1.1247 today high just beyond the 61.8% retracement of the friday high-to-week low leg, while the window's lower highs from 1.1380 remain intact below the 1.1259 weekly open.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1203, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1247, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1231 asia high would turn the London range break into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.1247 today high opens the 1.1259 weekly open and 78.6% fib; the 1.1285 friday high caps the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1203 today low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1161 week low
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
Lower highs from 1.1285; range 1.1186-1.1231 after sweep of low.
Highs have stepped lower since Friday's post-NFP spike to 1.1285, and early Monday's drop on the Spain snap-election headline printed the 17m low at 1.1161 before a rebound to the 61.8% fib of that leg. Since Monday's NY session, price has compressed between the swing low at 1.1186 and today's asia high at 1.1231, where it met rejection. It now sits just below the ema20 near 1.1214 with RSI(14) around 46, as the German factory orders collapse keeps EUR heavy and the weekly open at 1.1259 stays well overhead.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1231, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1203 day low breaks the rising support line from the 17m low
Failure to hold the 1.1186 swing low reopens the 1.1161 17m low
Close above the 1.1231 asia high and the lower-highs line shifts focus to the 1.1259 weekly open
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) could move the range edges
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from week low into a tight 1.1203–1.1231 consolidation under the 61.8% fib.
Monday's Asia session drop from the 1.1259 weekly open to a 1.1161 week low came after Spain's snap-election news and option-barrier selling. Price retraced more than half the move by NY hours, then stalled under the 61.8% fib near 1.1224, with rejection there three times and a today high of 1.1231 in Asia. This morning's German factory orders miss (-10.6% m/m) printed a today low of 1.1203, on the higher-low line from Monday's 1.1186 swing low. Price is back below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) has slipped under 50 as the range compresses (ATR ~12 pips).
Support: 1.12027, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12308, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1203 today low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.1186 swing low, then the 1.1161 week low
H1 close above the 1.1231 today high clears the 61.8% fib cap and opens the 1.1259 weekly open
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC could break the current consolidation
ECB Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 UTC), plus Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45), could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the higher-impact USD risk for the week
Lower highs all week; compression 1.1197–1.1231 above the 1.1161 low.
The window prints a clean sequence of lower highs: 1.1380 on Wednesday, the 1.1285 NFP high as Friday's NY spike on the 29K miss faded, then 1.1261 just above Monday's weekly open. The Asia session drop on Monday to the 1.1161 week low, on Spain's snap-vote report and French spread stress, was the low of the window. The rebound stalled at the 61.8% retrace of Monday's leg near the 1.1231 Asia high, and price is now slipping under the Monday rising line, just below EMA(20) near 1.1216 and EMA(50) near 1.1224, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12587, 1.12851
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1200 round number confirms the break of the Monday rising line and exposes the 1.1186 swing low, then the 1.1161 week low
A close above the 1.1231 Asia high and the 61.8% retrace reopens the 1.1259 weekly open; the 1.1285 NFP high caps the lower-highs sequence
Eurozone Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC, then ECB's Cipollone/Elderson and Fed's Williams around 13:00 UTC, could shift this read
FOMC minutes on Wed at 18:00 UTC are the main USD event risk against the 1.1161 week low
Lower highs from 1.1380; tight 1.1212–1.1231 consolidation after a 56% retrace of Monday's drop.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. Monday's Asia session drop on Spain snap-election headlines and French debt stress took it to a 1.1161 week low, a 17-month low, before London and NY retraced more than half the move off the 1.1259 weekly open. Price has since compressed between the 1.1212 rising trendline and the 1.1231 Asia high, around the 61.8% fib of Monday's drop. RSI(14) is flat near 55, EMA(20) sits underfoot and EMA(50) caps price near 1.1234.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1250, 1.1259
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the rising trendline at 1.1212 exposes Monday's 1.1186 higher low, then the 1.1161 week low
Close above the 1.1231 Asia high and EMA(50) opens the 1.1250 Friday close and the 1.1259 weekly open
Eurozone Retail Sales (09:00 GMT) and ECB's Cipollone/Elderson (13:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, are USD-side risk to the range
Lower highs from Wed peak; higher lows since Monday.
Lower highs have stacked since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak. The post-NFP bounce failed at the 1.1285 nfp high on Friday, and Monday's Asia-session flush hit a 17-month low at 1.1161 as French spread stress and option-barrier selling weighed on EUR. The London and NY recovery has carved a higher-low trendline and reached the 61.8% level of the Monday drop fib, with price now retesting the broken Thursday low near 1.1215. Price sits just above EMA(20) and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 56 and the 1.1231 asia high capping for now.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1187, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1231 asia high clears the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 1.1259 weekly open
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.1200 round number would bring the 1.1187 NY swing low back into play
Failure at 1.1187 reopens the 1.1161 17-month low
EZ Retail Sales 09:00 GMT and ECB's Cipollone/Elderson at 13:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) add USD event risk during NY hours
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off the week low · RSI 48 · price 1.12165
Lower highs since Wednesday; corrective rebound stalling at the 61.8% retrace.
Lower highs run from Wednesday's 1.1380 high through Friday's 1.1285 nfp high and Monday's 1.1259 weekly open. In Monday's Asia session, Spanish snap-election headlines sent the pair to a 1.1161 week low. The rebound has since retraced more than half that drop, but it has stalled at 1.1220–1.1224, the fib 61.8 of Monday's drop. Price is pinned at the ema20 near 1.1215 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 48. Higher lows from 1.1161 and the 1.1186 ny low define the recovery line.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1259, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1224 (fib 61.8) opens the 1.1259 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1215 and a break of the 1.1186 ny low would break the recovery line and expose the 1.1161 week low
A decisive break of the 1.1161 week low confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
EZ Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC and ECB Cipollone/Elderson 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, are USD-side risk to the downtrend read
Renewed OAT-Bund / Bonos-Bund spread widening remains the main driver behind the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows across the window; higher lows forming off 1.1161 since Monday's Asia session.
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak to the 1.1285 friday high, set on the post-NFP spike, frame the window. Thursday's London-NY slide and a Monday Asia-session drop on the Spanish snap-election news took price to the 1.1161 monday low, the weakest since May 2025. Since then, higher lows at 1.1186 and 1.1197 have lifted price back above the 1.1215 thu low and EMA(20), but the rebound is stalling at the 50% fib of the Friday-Monday leg near 1.1223, with RSI(14) only in the mid-50s, EMA(50) just overhead and the 1.1259 weekly open marking the gap-down origin.
Support: 1.12148, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.12587, 1.12851
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 1.1223 brings the 1.1259 weekly open back into view
Loss of the 1.1186 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 1.1161 monday low
A break of 1.1161 confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
EUR Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman later Tuesday could materially shift this read