21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after five-week slide · RSI 25 · price 1.12161
Lower highs and lower lows since the August high at 1.1711.
Downtrend in place since the August high at 1.1711. The mid-September break below the 1.1570–1.1650 range began a chain of lower highs and lower lows, with roughly weekly legs lower into Monday's 1.1161 17m low as French fiscal stress and dovish ECB repricing weighed on EUR. Price sits well below a falling EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI near 25 oversold, and the post-payrolls bounce has so far stalled under Friday high at 1.1285.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1371, 1.1480
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.1285 Friday high would break the lower-highs trendline sequence and expose the 1.1371 38.2% fib
- A daily close back above the EMA50 near 1.1480 would invalidate the downtrend read
- Failure to hold the 1.1161 17m low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1100 psych
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and the October Moody's review of France could materially shift this read
- Oversold RSI near 25 leaves room for a corrective bounce without changing the downtrend structure