21:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold, stalling above lows · RSI 27 · price 1.12534
LH/LL chain from the 1.1711 August high; June–July base broken.
EURUSD has carved lower highs since the 1.1711 August high, at 1.1654, 1.1410 and 1.1285, and late September's break of the 1.1324 june low ended the June–July base, with French fiscal stress and a firm USD on high yields and $100 Brent driving the leg to the 1.1161 swing low. The last three sessions have held between that swing low and the 1.1285 lower high, with demand showing near the 1.1215 prior low. RSI near 27 is oversold and price sits below falling EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1324, 1.1371
What it said to watch
- A D1 close above the 1.1285 lower high and the falling trendline of lower highs would break the LH sequence and expose the 1.1324 june low, then the fib 38.2 at 1.1371
- Failure to hold the 1.1161 swing low extends the LL chain toward the 1.1100 round number
- Holding the 1.1215 prior low through the week keeps this a basing stall rather than fresh downside
- ECB Accounts (Thu 11:30 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; HICP next week is the following catalyst