Lower-high sequence from 1.1380; price retesting the 1.1161 swing low.
Lower highs and lower lows have held across the three-week window. Tuesday's rebound stalled at the 1.1276 swing high, near the 50% retracement of the 1.1380-1.1161 leg and just under the lower-highs trendline. Price has since rolled back to retest the 1.1161 swing low, with French fiscal stress and firm US yields keeping EUR heavy, and the hawkish FOMC Minutes largely priced. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 28 pips shows no compression.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1276, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.1100 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1225 prior pivot would put the 1.1276 swing high and lower-highs trendline back in play
H4 close above 1.1276 breaks the lower-high sequence that has held since the 1.1380 lower high
ECB Accounts (Thu 11:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1641; second test of 1.1161.
EURUSD has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1641 mid-September top. The bounce off Monday's 1.1161 low stalled at the 1.1276 lower high, just above the 50% fib of the 1.1380-1.1161 leg and under the lower-high trendline, and price is back retesting the Monday low with EMA20 still below EMA50. French OAT stress, $100+ Brent and firm US yields have driven the slide to 17-month lows, while ATR near 30 pips shows a steady regime rather than compression.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1276
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.1162 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Repeated holds at the monday low would leave a twin low in place; reclaiming the 1.1224 prior pivot is the first sign of that
H4 close above the 1.1276 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the swing sequence
ECB accounts Thu 11:30 UTC and OAT/Bund spread moves are the EUR-side risk
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 42 · price 1.11869
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1653; bounce capped at 1.1276.
EURUSD has carved a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows across the three-week window, from 1.1653 down to Monday's 1.1161 swing low. Price is back below EMA20 near 1.1225 and well under EMA50, with EMA20 holding below EMA50. Tuesday's relief bounce stalled at 1.1276, a lower high near the 50% fib of the 1.1380 prior high to 1.1161 leg, and has since faded as French OAT stress and a firm USD weigh on EUR. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 30 pips from mid-teens early in the window, so the leg lower is extending rather than compressing.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1276, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 swing low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.1100 round number next
Recovery above the 1.1276 lower high breaks the descending lower highs trendline and challenges the trend read
EMA20 around 1.1225 is the first area to watch for rejection or break on any bounce
FOMC minutes today 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
ECB Accounts Thu 11:30 UTC and the OAT/Bund spread are the EUR-side risks
Lower highs and lower lows intact; relief rally rolled over.
The H4 has printed lower highs and lower lows across the window, from 1.1654 down to Monday's 1.1161 17m low. That leg came on French fiscal jitters and oil above $100. The relief bounce stalled at the 1.1276 swing high, just past the 50% fib and below the 61.8 fib at 1.1296. Price has since slipped back under the ema20 near 1.1228, and the lower-high trendline remains intact. ATR(14) has expanded to about 32 pips, a trend-extending regime rather than compression.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.12764, 1.12961
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 17m low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1100 round number in play.
Recovery back above the ema20 at 1.1228 would put the latest rejection in question.
H4 close above the 1.1276 swing high and the 1.1296 61.8 fib would break the lower-high trendline.
FOMC Minutes tonight and the ECB Accounts on Thursday could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1650 to 1.1161; bounce capped below the falling lower-high line.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows across the three-week window, from 1.1650 to the 17m low at 1.1161. French fiscal stress and a yield- and oil-driven dollar bid have powered the slide. Monday's dip briefly took out the prior low at 1.1215 before reversing, but the bounce faded near the 50% fib of the 1.1380-1.1161 leg. It stalled at 1.1276, a lower high under the 1.1285 lower high, and price is back below the 1.1250 pivot. ATR(14) has expanded to about 31 pips from the high-teens of mid-September, and price sits under both EMAs with the EMA20 below the EMA50.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1285, 1.1340
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1250 pivot and the 1.1285 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and test the lower-high line near 1.1295
Failure to hold the prior low at 1.1215 and the 1.1200 round number exposes a retest of the 17m low at 1.1161
Recovery through 1.1340, the breakdown area from late September, would undo the leg lower
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via DXY and US yields
Renewed widening in the OAT-Bund spread is the main channel for a fresh leg through the 17m low
Lower highs from 1.1410; bounce off 17m low capped near 50% retracement.
The three-week sequence of lower highs (1.1410, then the 1.1380 lower high) remains intact. Monday's flush to the 1.1161 17m low has retraced to the 50% level of the 1.1380-1.1161 fib, as the soft NFP and France's budget filing eased pressure on EUR. The swing high at 1.1276 and the prior high at 1.1285 are capping the move, with price holding the fib 38.2 near 1.1245. Price sits above EMA20 but below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 29 pips has eased from Monday's expansion.
Support: 1.1245, 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1276 swing high and 1.1285 prior high would break the lower-highs trendline sequence and open the 61.8% near 1.1296
Loss of the fib 38.2 at 1.1245 brings the 1.1200 round number back into view, then the 1.1161 17m low
A lower high below 1.1380 keeps the multi-week downtrend structure valid until reclaimed
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read