The lower-high sequence from the 1.1380 swing down to the 1.1276 lower high remains intact, with French fiscal stress driving the slide to Monday's 1.1161 base low. Since then price has held a 1.1161–1.1276 consolidation, and the base low has been tested three times without a break. Price sits on the 1.12 pivot, marginally above a flattening EMA20 and well below EMA50. ATR(14) near 27 pips is compressing after the late-September expansion, and the falling trendline caps near 1.1236.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1276, 1.1296
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 base low resumes the downtrend, with the 1.1100 round number next in the ING 1.1100/1.1120 zone
Close above the falling trendline and the 1.1276 lower high, which sits near the fib 50% of the 1.1380-1.1161 leg, breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 61.8 at 1.1296 is next above
Repeated closes back below the 1.12 pivot keep price pinned to the lower half of the consolidation
Fri ECB Schnabel, US UMich inflation expectations and any French OAT spread headlines could materially shift this read
EURUSD has printed a three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1620, with French OAT stress and hawkish FOMC minutes keeping the pair heavy near 17-month lows. Since Monday the decline has paused in a 1.1161-1.1276 box: the swing low held on two tests, but the latest bar was rejected back below the 1.1200 pivot. ATR(14) near 28 pips is compressing, and price sits under both EMAs, with the ema50 near 1.1245 aligned with the 38.2% retracement and the falling lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1276 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
H4 close below the 1.1161 swing low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1100 psych area
Repeated failure at the 1.1200 pivot and ema50 keeps the consolidation read capped
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC, then Eurozone HICP Tue 13 Oct, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1631; descending-triangle shape on 1.1161 base.
The five-week slide from 1.1631 keeps printing lower highs and lower lows, with the French fiscal premium and a firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes driving the tape. Over the last week price has compressed into a descending-triangle shape: the 1.1161 swing low has held twice, while the lower-high line from the 1.1380 prior high caps rallies at 1.1276 and now 1.1212. The 1.1276 swing high stalled at the 50% fib retrace of the 1.1380–1.1161 leg. Price sits below a bearishly stacked EMA20/EMA50, and ATR(14) near 28 pips has contracted from the 80-pip bars earlier in the week, which points to compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1276, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.1100 round number
H4 close above the 1.1212 lower high breaks the triangle compression, with the 1.1276 swing high and 50% fib retrace next above
Only a reclaim of the 1.1380 prior high would end the lower-high line structure
Jobless claims follow-through, Kashkari and Musalem today, then Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC, could shift the read
French OAT spread or budget headlines remain the main EUR driver and could trigger a triangle break
Lower highs and lower lows; twin lows near 1.1161-1.1165.
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1641 to the 1.1161 swing low define a three-week downtrend, with EMA20 below EMA50 throughout. The past week has stalled into twin lows at 1.1161/1.1165. The rebound faded at the 1.1276 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the drop from the 1.1380 swing high, as French fiscal stress and hawkish FOMC minutes kept EUR heavy against a firm dollar. Price now sits on the 1.1200 round number just under the ema20, and ATR(14) near 26 pips is contracting from the early-week expansion.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1276, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 1.1276 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend structure
Holding above the 1.1200 round number with a reclaim of the ema20 would extend the consolidation
ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Failure at the 1.1380 swing high keeps the broader downtrend intact even on a squeeze
Lower highs intact since 1.1641; lows flattening into a 1.1161–1.1276 range.
EURUSD has carved lower highs and lower lows across three weeks, sliding from 1.1641 to 17-month lows as French OAT stress and USD yields near 5.35% weighed. The latest leg has stalled, with the 1.1161 and 1.1165 lows forming a double low and price at 1.1200 mid-range, beneath both EMAs and the falling lower-highs trendline. ATR(14) near 27 pips has eased from the late-September expansion, pointing to compression inside the 1.1161–1.1276 range.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1276 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1380 prior high, also the top of the fib
Failure to hold the 1.1162 double low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
ECB Accounts (Thu 11:30 UTC), Waller and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
Record EUR spec shorts leave room for sharp short-covering on any French fiscal relief