EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Sideways, short-term recovery off range lows · RSI 59 · price 1.12122
Range 1.1161–1.1276; lower highs against a flat floor near 1.1165.
Since Monday's 1.1254 week open, the window has ranged 1.1161–1.1276. Both sharp drops came early, in Asia on Monday and at the London open Wednesday, and buyers stepped in at the 1.1165–1.1172 area on Wednesday and again at Thursday's thu low. Thursday's NY session reclaimed psych 1.12 as US yields eased and the USD faded on Trump's Iran comments and lower oil, but the spike to the 1.1226 thu high was rejected, keeping lower highs in place from the 1.1276 week high. Price holds just above EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.1203–1.1205 with RSI(14) near 59, roughly 43% into the fib retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1254, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence and confirms the double bottom, opening the 1.1254 week open
Failure to hold psych 1.12 returns focus to the 1.1172 thu low and the 1.1161 week low at the range floor
Fri: ECB Schnabel 13:30 UTC and US U-Mich sentiment 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh French OAT/fiscal headlines remain the main driver of EUR swings in this range
Contracting range 1.1161–1.1276: lower highs since Tuesday, higher lows since Wednesday.
EURUSD has held a 1.1161 week low to 1.1276 week high range since Monday. The dominant leg was the Tuesday–Wednesday drop, which started with a London-open selloff Wednesday as French OAT stress weighed on the euro. Thursday's 1.1172 day low held above Wednesday's low, the higher-lows line, and NY hours lifted price back over the 1.1200 round number as US yields eased and the dollar faded after Trump's Iran comments. Price sits marginally above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 58, but the NY spike was rejected at the 1.1226 day high, which keeps the lower-highs line from Tuesday intact.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12594, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 day high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.1259 weekly open
Loss of the 1.1200 round number puts the 1.1172 day low and the higher-lows line back in play
A break below the 1.1161 week low would end the range read
Friday's ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US U-Mich sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fresh French fiscal/OAT headlines remain the main driver of moves through 1.1200
Lower highs from the 1.1276 week high against higher lows off 1.1161, inside the weekly range.
EURUSD has rotated inside a 1.1161–1.1276 range since the 1.1259 weekly open. Tuesday's London-to-NY rally to the week high was fully unwound by Wednesday's London-open drop as French OAT stress weighed on EUR. Since then lows have edged higher, from the 1.1161 week low and Wednesday's 1.1165 to the 1.1172 thu low, while highs step down, and Thursday's NY-session rebound lifted price back above the 1.1200 ema20 pivot as the USD faded on Trump's Iran comments and lower oil. Supply capped Thursday's day high at 1.1226, near the 50% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 16 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12587, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 day high and the lower-highs trendline opens the path to the 1.1259 weekly open and 1.1276 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1200 ema20 pivot brings the 1.1172 thu low and the higher-lows trendline back into play
A break below the 1.1161 week low invalidates the higher-lows read and exposes the 1.1100/1.1120 zone flagged in the digest
ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and UMich sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Fresh French OAT spread stress headlines could break the compression to the downside
1.1161–1.1276 weekly range; lower highs pressing a flat base near 1.1165.
EURUSD has held a range between the 1.1161 week low and 1.1276 week high since opening the week at the 1.1259 weekly open. Wednesday's London-open drop on French OAT stress fully unwound Tuesday's London rally. Since Tuesday, highs have stepped lower while lows at 1.1161, 1.1165 and the 1.1172 thu low form a common floor. Thursday's NY bounce, as the USD faded on Trump's Iran comments, stalled at the 1.1226 thu high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop. Price now sits just above ema20 near 1.1198, with RSI(14) around 56.
Support: 1.1198, 1.1172, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 thu high and the lower-high trendline opens the 1.1259 weekly open, then the 1.1276 week high
Loss of ema20 at 1.1198 and the 1.1172 thu low returns focus to the 1.1161 week low
A break of the week low would end the flat-base read and expose the 1.1100/1.1120 zone
ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and UMich inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1276 against higher lows from 1.1161; compressing range 1.1165–1.1226.
The week opened at 1.1259. Tuesday's London-to-NY rally to the 1.1276 week high fully reversed at Wednesday's London open as French OAT stress kept EUR heavy. Since then H1 has ranged 1.1165–1.1226 with lows edging higher: Thursday's NY-hours spike met rejection at the 1.1226 thu high, near the 50% fib of the Tue-Wed drop, but price has reclaimed the 1.1200 round number as USD faded on lower oil. Price sits above the ema20 (~1.1187) and a flattening EMA(50) near 1.1200, with RSI(14) neutral around 54 and the lower highs still intact.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1187, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 thu high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 61.8% Tue-Wed drop fib near 1.1234, then the 1.1259 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number and the ema20 near 1.1187 returns focus to the higher-lows line near 1.1172
A break below the 1.1161 week low ends the higher-lows sequence
Fri U-Mich sentiment (14:00 UTC), ECB Schnabel and French OAT/issuance headlines could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Range after mid-week reversal, lower highs · RSI 48 · price 1.11978
1.1161–1.1276 week range, compressing around 1.1200 with lower highs.
The week opened at 1.1259. The Monday Asia drop set the week low at 1.1161, and Tuesday's London rally made the week high at 1.1276 before Wednesday's London selloff on French OAT stress and US yields reversed it to 1.1165. Thursday's European dip held 1.1172 (the thu low), and the NY-hours spike to the thu high at 1.1226, near the 50% retracement of the Tue–Wed fall, was rejected as yields steadied. Price is now pinned around psych 1.12 on a flat EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 48 and highs stepping lower from Tuesday.
Support: 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12264, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1259 weekly open back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1172 thu low, then the 1.1161 week low, exposes the 1.1100/1.1120 zone flagged in the digest
Repeated closes either side of psych 1.12 keep the range read intact
Schnabel (Fri 13:30 UTC) and US Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Further French OAT spread widening or budget headlines remain the dominant EUR driver
Lower highs from 1.1276 pressing on a flat 1.1161–1.1172 floor.
Since the 1.1259 weekly open, EURUSD has rotated inside a 1.1161–1.1276 band. Asia-hours selling on Monday set the week low, and the London-led rally to the Tuesday week high fully reversed at Wednesday's London open on wider French–Bund spreads and a firm USD. Each rebound since has printed lower highs, and today's NY high at 1.1226, reached as Treasury yields eased, was rejected just beyond the 50% retracement of the Tue–Wed drop. Price now sits fractionally below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 43, while the Thu low at 1.1172 and the week low hold as the floor.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1161, 1.1120
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1259, 1.1276
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the ING zone at 1.1110/1.1120
Failure to hold the Thu low at 1.1172 would mark a third test of the floor within four sessions
Close above the NY high at 1.1226 breaks the lower-highs sequence; the weekly open at 1.1259 and the week high at 1.1276 sit above
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC today and Friday's 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations could shift this read
French OAT spread headlines remain the dominant EUR driver behind the lower highs
1.1161–1.1276 weekly range; higher lows at the base, lower highs from the week high.
EURUSD has held a 1.1161–1.1276 range this week. Sharp drops in Monday's Asia session and at Wednesday's London open both found buyers near the week low, leaving higher lows at 1.1165 and 1.1172 (thu low). Thursday's London dip on wider French spreads gave way to an NY-hours bounce as Treasury yields eased, but the push met rejection at 1.1226 (thu high), and price is back on the 38.2% retracement of the Tue drop fib, just above the 1.1200 psych pivot and EMA(20) near 1.1195. RSI(14) sits neutral near 52 and price is hugging a flattening EMA(50) around 1.1205, while lower highs from the 1.1276 week high still cap rallies below the week open at 1.1259.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12587, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1226 thu high clears the lower highs line and opens the 50–61.8% zone of the Tue drop fib toward the week open at 1.1259
Failure to hold the 1.1200 psych pivot and the higher lows line exposes 1.1172 thu low and the 1.1161 week low
A break below the week low turns the range into a lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100/1.1120 area
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC today and Friday's Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Renewed widening in French OAT–Bund spreads has driven each leg lower this week
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1276 peak against a flat 1.1161–1.1172 floor.
From the 1.1259 weekly open, EURUSD slid to the 1.1161 week low in Monday's Asia session. Tuesday's London rally peaked at 1.1276 and faded. London then drove the legs lower on Wednesday and again today, back toward 1.1165–1.1172, as French OAT stress and the hawkish FOMC minutes weighed. Price sits at 1.1196, a touch above EMA(20) near 1.1193 and below EMA(50) near 1.1203, with RSI(14) flat around 49. That leaves a compression of lower highs into the 1.1200 round number, above a floor that has held three times this week.
Support: 1.11716, 1.1161, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1212 lower high, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the Tue–Wed drop, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1259 weekly open back in view
Repeated rejection at the 1.1200 round number keeps price compressed against today's low at 1.1172
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1100/1.1120 psych zone flagged in the digest
Fed's Musalem (17:40 UTC today), ECB's Schnabel (Fri 13:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Down from Tuesday's high, compressing above week low · RSI 41 · price 1.11826
The week opened at 1.1259, dropped to the 1.1161 week low in Monday's Asia session, then rallied to 1.1276 during London on Tuesday. That gain fully unwound at Wednesday's London open on the French Treasury issuance report and firmer US yields. Since then H1 has printed lower highs under EMA(20). The Thursday Asia lower high at 1.1212 stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop, and the post-claims spike to the 1.1200 psych was rejected in the first hour of NY. Lows at the 1.1172 day low and 1.1165 (Wednesday) sit just above the week low, so price is compressing between the lower-highs line and that floor, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the floor and opens ING's 1.1100/1.1120 zone
Failure to hold the 1.1172 day low breaks the higher lows from Wednesday
H1 close above the 1.1212 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and negates the compression read
Reclaiming the 1.1259 weekly open would erase Wednesday's French-stress drop
Kashkari 14:40 UTC and Musalem 17:40 UTC today, Schnabel Fri 13:30 UTC and Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Any calming in French OAT spreads could trigger a sharp rebound through the 1.1200 psych
Lower highs pressing on flat lows at 1.1161–1.1172.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1276 week high. Wednesday's London-open drop and Thursday's London selling tracked French fiscal stress and firm US yields. Thursday's Asia rebound stalled at the 1.1212 lower high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Tue–Wed drop. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1192 and the 1.12 pivot, with RSI(14) near 39. Demand has held the 1.1161 week low and today's 1.1172 thu low, so the lows are flat while the highs keep falling.
Support: 1.11716, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the range floor and puts ING's 1.1110/1.1120 zone in view
Recovery above the 1.1212 lower high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the descending structure, with the 1.1276 week high next
Failure to reclaim the 1.12 pivot keeps price below EMA(20) and the fib's 38.2% level
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, actual not yet in feed) plus Kashkari and Musalem later today could materially shift this read
French OAT spread headlines remain the main EUR driver; Schnabel and Michigan sentiment are due Friday
Lower highs from 1.1276 against flat lows near 1.1162.
EURUSD has held a 1.1162–1.1276 range this week. Monday's Asia-session drop and Wednesday's London-open slide both stalled at the week low, and Tuesday's rally to the week high was fully reversed as the French fiscal risk premium and a firm USD capped rebounds. Thursday's bounce was rejected at the thu high of 1.1212, near the 38.2% retrace of the Tue–Wed drop and on a falling lower-highs trendline. London has since pushed price back under EMA(20) and EMA(50) toward the session low, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1176, 1.1162
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1212, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1162 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Close back above the ema20 and the 1.1212 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 1.1176 session low puts the week low back in focus within the current NY session
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
Digestion of the ECB Accounts and any fresh French budget headlines remain the main EUR-side risk
11:02 UTC
Downside pressure inside a weekly range, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 39 · price 1.11812
Range 1.1161–1.1276 with lower highs off Tuesday's week high; price pressing the session low.
Wednesday's London-open drop from 1.1230 took price back to 1.1164, retesting Monday's Asia-session week low at 1.1161, as French fiscal stress and a firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes pressed EUR. Thursday's Asia rebound stalled at 1.1212, the thu high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) at 1.1195 to the 1.1180 session low through London, with RSI(14) near 39 and the lower-highs trendline from the week high intact.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1212, 1.1276
What it said to watch
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1180 session low is the first test
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC add USD event risk into the NY session
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the range floor that held Monday and Wednesday
Close back above 1.1212 thu high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-highs read and puts the 50% fib and 1.1276 week high in focus
EMA20 at 1.1195 capping retests keeps intraday structure heavy
Lower highs from 1.1276; range 1.1164–1.1212 since Wednesday.
EURUSD has given back the week from the 1.1259 week open. Monday's Asia slump set the 1.1161 week low, and Wednesday's London-open selloff on French bond stress erased Tuesday's spike to 1.1276 and retested that low at 1.1164. Since then price has held a 1.1164–1.1212 range: today's Asia high stalled at the range top inside the 38.2–50% lower-highs retracement and met rejection into London after the German exports miss, setting today's low at 1.1182 and leaving price just under the EMA(20) at 1.1197 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1212, 1.1259
What it said to watch
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC (Lane at 10:00 UTC) could materially shift this read given record EUR shorts
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side catalyst
H1 close above the 1.1212 range top and the 38.2–50% fib zone opens the path to the 1.1259 week open
Failure to hold the 1.1161 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1140
Holding below the EMA(20) at 1.1197 keeps the lower-highs sequence from 1.1276 intact
08:01 UTC
Downtrend within weekly range, below EMAs · RSI 41 · price 1.11874
Range 1.1161–1.1276, lower highs since Tuesday.
The week opened at 1.1259 and slid to the week low at 1.1161 in Monday's Asia session. Tuesday's French bond relief carried a London-led rally to 1.1276, which drew a rejection. Wednesday's London open sell-off, after Moulin ruled out ECB help, sent price back to the Wed low at 1.1165, and the rebound stalled near 1.1203. Thursday's lower high at 1.1212 sits just above EMA(20), now near 1.1200. Price is slipping into London with RSI(14) around 41, holding the lower third of the range.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the range floor; the 1.1165 Wed low is the first test
Recovery through EMA(20) at 1.1200 and the 1.1212 lower high would challenge the lower-highs sequence and the 38.2–50% fib zone
Reclaiming the weekly open at 1.1259 would put the 1.1276 week high back in focus
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US claims at 12:30 UTC could also shift it, as could Waller at 08:30 UTC
Weekly range 1.1161–1.1276, lower highs, tight box above lows.
Tuesday's London-session short-covering rebound to the week high at 1.1276 was fully unwound by Wednesday's London-open slide on renewed French bond stress. The Wed low at 1.1165 held just above Monday's week low at 1.1161, and the FOMC minutes kept the subsequent bounce shallow. Since then price has compressed in a 1.1188–1.1212 box. Today's Asia high stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop and beneath the lower highs line, with H1 trading below the ema20 near 1.1200 and EMA(50) near 1.1210, and RSI(14) around 36.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12124, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1212 Asia high, and with it the ema20 near 1.1200, breaks the post-Wednesday consolidation and the lower highs line
Reclaiming the lower highs line puts the Tuesday–Wednesday drop fib 61.8% and the 1.1276 week high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1165 Wed low exposes the 1.1161 week low and the range floor
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1212 under 1.1276; lows at 1.1161/1.1165.
Tuesday's relief rally from the 1.1259 weekly open to a 1.1276 week high fully unwound from Wednesday's London open, as French bonds sold off again and hawkish Fed minutes lifted the dollar. The Wednesday NY low at 1.1165 held just above Monday's Asia-session week low at 1.1161. Thursday's Asian bounce stalled at the 1.1212 Asia high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop, and price has slipped back under the 1.1200 round number and EMA(20) toward the 1.1188 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1165, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1212, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low, after the 1.1165 Wed low held, confirms a lower-low and breaks the range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1212 Asia high breaks the lower-high trendline from Tuesday's peak
Failure to hold the 1.1188 Asia low exposes the 1.1165/1.1161 lows
Recovery back toward the 1.1259 weekly open would retrace most of Wednesday's drop
ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC, Lane 10:00 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Range-bound within a broader decline, momentum neutral · RSI 47 · price 1.12041
1.1161–1.1276 weekly range, lower highs at the top, double floor near 1.1161–1.1165.
Monday's Asia-session drop and Wednesday's London-open slide both found demand at the 1.1161 week low and 1.1165 wed low. The Wednesday slide came as French OATs sold off again and FOMC minutes signalled another hike, and it fully faded Tuesday's London-NY short-covering squeeze to the 1.1276 week high. Price is now compressing between the 1.1188 day low and the 1.1212 asian high, sitting on a flat EMA(20) and just above the 38.2% fib of the Tue–Wed decline, while EMA(50) sits overhead and RSI(14) is near 47. Lower highs from Friday's 1.1285 to Tuesday's 1.1276 cap the range, with the weekly open at 1.1259 just beneath that line.
Support: 1.1188, 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12587, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1188 day low exposes the 1.1165 wed low and 1.1161 week low
Break of the 1.1161 week low invalidates the range read and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 1.1212 asian high and the 50% fib near 1.1221 opens the path to the 1.1259 weekly open
Rejection at the lower highs line near the 1.1276 week high keeps the range top intact
Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Range-bound, heavy after Wednesday reversal · RSI 55 · price 1.12022
1.1161–1.1276 weekly range; lower highs since Tuesday peak, higher lows off Wednesday low.
Tuesday's London-NY relief rally to 1.1276 was fully reversed from Wednesday's London open. French OAT stress and hawkish FOMC minutes drove price back to a week low of 1.1164, near Monday's Asia-session low at 1.1161. Since then H1 has compressed above the ema20 near 1.1197 with higher lows. The Asia high at 1.1212 is capping the bounce just short of the 50% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop at 1.1221. Price remains below the weekly open at 1.1259 and the declining EMA50.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1164
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1221, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 1.1221 and the lower highs line would extend the rebound toward the weekly open at 1.1259
Failure to hold the ema20 and the higher lows line exposes the week low at 1.1164; a break there marks a lower low and ends the range read
Asia high at 1.1212 as the immediate cap on the bounce
ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Waller at 08:30 UTC also in play
1.1161–1.1276 weekly range; Wednesday low held above Monday's week low.
The week has swung inside a 1.1161–1.1276 range. Monday's Asia-session slide to the week low was recovered. Tuesday's London-NY relief rally to the tuesday high was then fully rejected on Wednesday, as renewed French bond stress and a yield-driven USD bid returned, while the wed low at 1.1165 held just above Monday's. Since then price has edged back to the 38.2% Tue-Wed fib near 1.1207 and sits marginally above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 46, while the 50% level lines up with the monday high at 1.1220.
Support: 1.1188, 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.12587, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the monday high / 50% fib at 1.1220 opens the weekly open at 1.1259; the tuesday high at 1.1276 marks the range top
Loss of the asian low at 1.1188 and the rising support line puts the wed low and week low at 1.1161–1.1165 back in focus
A break below the 1.1161 week low would end the range read
ECB Accounts (11:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1276 after Friday's 1.1285 high; price basing at 1.1161/1.1165 inside a 1.1161–1.1276 weekly range.
EUR/USD has given back all of Tuesday's London-led rally to 1.1276. Wednesday's London-open breakdown from 1.1229 came on renewed French bond stress, with hawkish FOMC minutes and 5.35% US 10y yields keeping the dollar firm afterwards. The Wednesday low at 1.1165 held just above Monday's 1.1161 week low, and the NY rebound stalled at 1.1203, below the 38.2% fib. Price is now coiling around the 1.1200 handle, just under the EMA(20) and well under EMA(50) near 1.1215, with RSI(14) near 45 and hourly ranges compressing to about 10 pips.
Support: 1.1188, 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.1229, 1.12587
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the twin-low base and extends the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 1.1188 session low exposes the 1.1165 wed low
Sustained trade above the 1.1202 ema20 and the 38.2% fib reopens the 1.1229 breakdown area, with the weekly open at 1.1259 above
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Lane at 10:00 UTC and the ECB Accounts at 11:30 UTC are euro-specific risk for the 1.1200 handle
Lower high at 1.1276 vs Friday's 1.1285; 1.1161-65 lows tested twice.
The week opened at 1.1259 and slid about 65 pips in Monday's Asia session to the 1.1161 week low. Tuesday's short-covering rally on French fiscal relief stalled at 1.1276, a lower high versus Friday. That bounce was fully reversed from the London open Wednesday as French yields rose again after the Banque de France ruled out ECB help, while USD firmed on yields and oil. The Wednesday low at 1.1165 held just above the week low, and price has since stalled in a tight Asian range beneath EMA(20) at 1.1203, with RSI(14) near 40 and just under the 38.2% retrace of the Tuesday-to-Wednesday drop.
Support: 1.11645, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1230, 1.1259
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1161 week low breaks the double test and extends the downtrend to fresh 17-month lows
Hold of the 1.1165 wed low followed by a reclaim of the 1.1203 ema20 shifts the read toward a range rebound
Recovery through the 1.1221 50% fib and the 1.1230 breakdown level reopens the 1.1259 weekly open
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC, ECB Accounts 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read