Tuesday's London rally to the 1.1276 week high fully unwound in Wednesday's London sell-off to the 1.1165 week low. Since then the pair has been coiling between lower highs and higher lows, with Thursday's higher low at 1.1172 and Friday's low at 1.1187. Friday's early-London push to 1.1243 on easing French yields met rejection near the 61.8% retrace and reversed through the London-NY transition as hawkish Fed talk and firm oil lifted USD. Price closed the week at 1.1200, just below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and the fib 38.2 at 1.1207, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1243 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1276 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1187 friday low and the 1.1172 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1165 week low
Holding below the fib 38.2 / ema20 cluster near 1.1207 keeps the coil weighted to the lower half
EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could resolve the contraction either way
French budget headlines over the weekend raise Monday open gap risk
Contracting range: higher lows off 1.1165, lower highs from 1.1276.
Tuesday's London-open spike to the 1.1276 week high was fully unwound by Wednesday's London selloff to the 1.1165 week low. Since then price has rotated inside 1.1165–1.1243, with higher lows on Thursday and Friday but a lower high at the 1.1243 Friday high, which was rejected just above the 61.8% of the Tue–Wed drop. Friday's early gains faded through London and NY as USD firmed on higher UoM inflation expectations and French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy. That left price just under EMA(20) near 1.1210 and the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) near 41 and EMA(50) flat overhead.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1187 Friday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1165 week low (16-month low area)
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.1210 followed by acceptance above the 1.1243 Friday high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 1.1276 week high next
Weekend French budget headlines and the Monday reopen carry gap risk; Tue HICP (f/c 3.3%) and Wed US CPI (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Range after failed rally, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 38 · price 1.11973
Compressing range: lower highs from 1.1276, rising lows off 1.1165.
Tuesday's London-led push to the 1.1276 week high was fully unwound by Wednesday's London selloff to the 1.1165 week low, and price has ranged since, with Thursday printing a higher low at 1.1172. Friday's run to 1.1243 (friday high) overshot the 61.8% retrace of the Tue-Wed drop and was rejected through London into NY as the dollar rebounded on hawkish Fedspeak and firmer UoM inflation expectations. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1209, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) is near 38. The lower highs line from Tuesday and the rising lows from Wednesday are squeezing the range.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1209, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 1.1187 exposes the higher low at 1.1172 and the week low at 1.1165, breaking the rising lows line
Recovery above ema20 / 38.2% fib at 1.1207–1.1209 would neutralise Friday's rejection, with the friday high at 1.1243 on the lower highs line next
Clearance of the 1.1276 week high would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Hammack (Mon), EZ HICP (Tue 06:00 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the 1.1165–1.1276 weekly range.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1165–1.1276 range since Tuesday's London-open spike to the week high. Wednesday's London sell-off set the week low, and Thursday printed a shallow higher low at the 1.1172 thu low. Friday's pre-London push to the 1.1243 fri high, beyond the 61.8% fib of the Tue–Wed drop, was rejected as the dollar rebounded on hawkish Fedspeak and high oil, and the fade through NY has price back below ema20 near 1.1205 with RSI(14) at 41, the session low at 1.1187 the nearest floor.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1172 thu low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.1165 week low in play
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low extends Friday's lower-high leg
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.1205 followed by a close above the 1.1243 fri high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.1276 week high
Weekend French budget headlines could gap the open; Tue 13 Oct EZ HICP and Wed 14 Oct US CPI could materially shift this read
Converging lower highs and higher lows inside 1.1165–1.1276.
Tuesday's London-led push to the 1.1276 week high reversed hard at Wednesday's London open as French bond stress hit EUR, carving the 1.1165 week low. Thursday held a higher low at 1.1172, but Friday's Asia rebound stalled at a 1.1243 lower high, close to the 61.8% retracement, and faded through London and NY. Price now sits below ema20 (~1.1210) and is testing the friday low at 1.1190 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1190 friday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1172 higher low and 1.1165 week low
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.1210, then a close above the 1.1243 lower high, would neutralise the lower-highs sequence and bring the 1.1276 week high back into view
Weekend French budget or political headlines are a gap risk for the Monday open
EZ HICP (Tue) and US CPI (Wed) are the next catalysts that could break the range
13:03 UTC
Range-bound, lower high on Friday · RSI 44 · price 1.1199
Contracting range 1.1165–1.1276, lower highs vs higher lows.
The week's dominant move came at Wednesday's London open, a 110-pip slide from Tuesday's 1.1276 week high to the 1.1165 week low. Since then H1 has compressed into higher lows (Thursday's 1.1172) and lower highs. Friday's pre-London push to 1.1243 retraced roughly 70% of the Tue–Wed drop fib on easing French yields, then met rejection through London as oil and French debt worries reasserted. Price at 1.1199 sits just above the 1.1192 friday low, back below EMA(20) near 1.1212 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 44 mid-range.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and U-Mich sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the compression either way
H1 close below the 1.1192 friday low exposes the 1.1172 higher low; a break of the 1.1165 week low would confirm a lower-low toward the 16-month lows
Recovery above ema20 at 1.1212 and then the 1.1243 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence and reopen the 1.1276 week high
Tuesday's HICP (f/c 3.3% YoY) is the next high-impact EUR catalyst for this range
12:03 UTC
Range after Wednesday's drop, rebound fading · RSI 47 · price 1.12094
Double bottom at 1.1165/1.1172, lower high at 1.1243 below the 1.1276 week high.
Wednesday's London-open slide on French spread stress set the week low at 1.1165. Thursday's higher low at 1.1172 formed a double bottom, and the NY session extended the bounce as USD faded on lower oil and Treasury yields. Friday's Asia push stalled at the 1.1243 friday high, a lower high under Tuesday's 1.1276 week high. London has since faded price back to the session low near 1.1205, a retest of the ~1.1212 neckline at the 38.2% fib of the Tue–Wed drop, with price just under the ema20 (1.1214) and a flat EMA(50) and RSI(14) at 47 off a low-60s peak.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1205 session low and 38.2% fib reopens the 1.1172 higher low and 1.1165 week low; a break there voids the double bottom base
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 1.1243 friday high breaks the lower highs line and puts the 1.1265–1.1276 week high back in play
ECB's Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment plus inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Renewed widening in French yields would test the double bottom regardless of US data
10:02 UTC
Range, Friday rebound stalling at a lower high · RSI 54 · price 1.12173
Lower high 1.1243 below 1.1276; higher low 1.1172 above 1.1165.
EUR/USD has carved a 1.1165–1.1276 range this week. Tuesday's London-open rally set the 1.1276 week high, and Wednesday's London selloff on French OAT stress printed the 1.1165 week low, with Thursday's NY chop holding a higher low at 1.1172. As OAT yields eased, Friday's late-Asia push to the 1.1243 friday high retraced just past the 61.8% of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop, but London faded it back onto EMA(20) near 1.1217, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1204 asian low brings the 1.1172 higher low and 1.1165 week low back into focus
Close above the 1.1243 friday high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1276 week high
ECB Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Renewed French OAT yield stress above Thursday's highs would undercut the Tuesday-Wednesday drop retracement
Euro area HICP Mon 06:00 UTC is the next high-impact risk
09:03 UTC
Rebound from week low, capped below Tuesday high · RSI 57 · price 1.12207
Double bottom 1.1164/1.1172, lower high vs Tue.
Wednesday's London-open slide ran from Tuesday's 1.1276 week high to the 1.1164 week low. Thursday's 1.1172 higher low then formed a double bottom as a softer USD and easing French yields lifted the pair, and price has since retraced half of that drop. Friday's Asia-session push to the friday high at 1.1243 cleared the 1.1226 neckline but stalled just above the 61.8% fib, printing a lower high versus Tuesday. Price is now retesting the ema20 near 1.1217 with RSI(14) around 57.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1204, 1.1164
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the friday low at 1.1204 undermines the double bottom and exposes the 1.1164 week low
Sustained trade above the friday high at 1.1243 breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1276 week high
Holding the ema20 and the higher-low line keeps the neckline retest intact
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and UMich inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.1165/1.1172, neckline breakout and retest, higher lows since Thursday.
Tuesday's London-led rally to the 1.1276 week high fully reversed from Wednesday's London open. French OAT stress drove a 17-month low at 1.1165, and Thursday printed a higher low at 1.1172 before a NY-session reversal as USD softened on Trump's Iran comments and lower yields, completing a double bottom. Price cleared the 1.1226 neckline in Asia and has retested it from above, holding over ema20 near 1.1218. It now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Tue-Wed drop (1.1234), with the 1.1243 asia high capping so far.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1218, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.12425, 1.1265, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1226 neckline and ema20 at 1.1218 would negate the double bottom breakout
H1 close above the 1.1243 asia high opens the 1.1265 tue shelf (UOB resistance), with the 1.1276 week high beyond
A break of the higher lows trendline and then 1.1172 higher low would reopen the 1.1165 week low
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Renewed OAT-Bund widening on EcoFin or French budget headlines would undercut the recovery structure
Higher low at 1.1172 vs 1.1165; price back in upper half of 1.1165–1.1276 range.
Wednesday's London-open selloff took price from Tuesday's 1.1276 week high to the 1.1165 week low. Thursday's NY session reversal held at 1.1172, a marginal higher low that completes a shallow double bottom, as lower US yields and oil weighed on the USD. Asia trade has since lifted price above Thursday's 1.1226 prior high and the ema20, with RSI(14) near 66, and price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the week's drop just under the 1.1243 day high.
Support: 1.12264, 1.1216, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12425, 1.12764
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.1226 prior high and the ema20 (~1.1216) would turn the move into a false break inside the range
Clearance of the 1.1243 day high and the 61.8% fib at 1.1234 opens the path to the 1.1276 week high
A break of the rising lows line from Thursday's 1.1172 low weakens the double bottom read and puts the 1.1165 week low back in focus
EcoFin (08:00 UTC), Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment plus inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range 1.1165–1.1276; Thursday higher low, price back above 50% retrace of Tue–Wed drop.
Tuesday's London-session breakout to the 1.1276 week high fully unwound at Wednesday's London open, printing the 1.1165 week low as French spread stress weighed on the euro. Thursday's London dip held a higher low at 1.1172 before an NY-session rebound on easing US yields and Trump's Iran comments, and the Asian session has lifted price to the 1.1228 asian high above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 64. Price sits just above the 50% retrace of the Tue–Wed drop, with the 61.8% fib at 1.1234 the next cap and 1.1200 psych the pivot below.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1234, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1234 and the asian high opens the path back toward the 1.1276 week high
Loss of ema20 near 1.1212 and the Thursday higher-low line shifts focus to 1.1200 psych; a break there reopens the 1.1165 week low
ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment with inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fresh widening in French OAT-Bund spreads would challenge the recovery from the week low
Tuesday's London-session push to the 1.1276 week high fully reversed at Wednesday's London open on French spread stress, bottoming at 1.1165. Since then lows have edged higher, with the Thu low at 1.1172. USD faded in Thursday's NY session on Trump's Iran comments and easing yields, lifting the pair back into the 50–61.8% fib zone of that drop. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 1.1210 with RSI(14) around 63, and the Asia session is pressing the Thu high at 1.1228.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1200, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1248, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Thu high at 1.1228 and the 61.8% fib at 1.1234 opens the Tue shelf at 1.1248, then the week high at 1.1276
Loss of EMA20 and the 1.1200 round number puts the Thu low at 1.1172 and the rising lows line back in play
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UMich sentiment with inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh French OAT–Bund spread widening has driven both of this week's sell-offs from the range top
Wed–Thu higher lows; testing Thu high and Wed breakdown origin.
French spread stress hit EUR at Wednesday's London open. A 40-pip drop fully reversed Tuesday's London breakout to the 1.1276 week high and left a 1.1165–1.1226 range through Thursday. The Thursday NY rebound from the 1.1172 thu low came as US yields eased and USD faded, and Friday's Asia session is now retesting the thu high near 1.1228, which is also where Wednesday's breakdown started. Price sits above EMA(20) at 1.1210 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 63, just under the 61.8% fib of the Tue–Wed drop at 1.1234.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1200, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1247, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1234 61.8% fib clears the thu high and exposes the tue shelf at 1.1247, then the 1.1276 week high
Slip back below the ema20 at 1.1210 and the 1.1200 psych handle returns price to the mid-week range
Break of the higher lows line and the 1.1172 thu low puts the 1.1165 Wednesday low back in focus
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UMich sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh French OAT spread headlines remain the main EUR driver
Tuesday's London-open breakout ran to the 1.1276 week high, but Wednesday's London-open drop on wider French spreads erased it into the 1.1165 week low. Thursday's dip held at 1.1172 (thursday low), a higher low that frames a double bottom with the neckline at 1.1203, and the NY-session rebound on a softer dollar after Trump's Iran comments carried price back above it. Asia session has pushed into Thursday's prior high near 1.1228, between the 50% retracement of the week drop (1.1220) and the 61.8% fib at 1.1234, with price above EMA(20) and RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1234, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1234 opens the path back toward the 1.1276 week high
Rejection at the 1.1228 prior high and a close back below the 1.1203 neckline would negate the double bottom read
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 1.1172 thursday low exposes the 1.1165 week low; a close beneath it resumes lower-low structure
ECB Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UMich sentiment plus inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh French fiscal or OAT–Bund spread headlines have driven this week's sharpest H1 drops
01:02 UTC
Range-bound, compressing around 1.1200 · RSI 57 · price 1.12135
Lower highs from 1.1276, higher lows from 1.1165; contracting range.
Tuesday's London-session rally to the 1.1276 week high fully unwound at Wednesday's London open as French OAT stress hit EUR. That drop bottomed at the 1.1165 week low, and Thursday's dip held a higher low at 1.1172 (thu low) before the USD faded in NY hours on Trump's Iran comments and lower oil, lifting price to the 1.1226 thu high near the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Price sits at 1.1213 above a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster just over the 1.1200 psych pivot, with RSI(14) at 56 as lower highs and higher lows squeeze the range.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11716, 1.11645
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12431, 1.12764
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1226 thu high and 50% retracement opens the path to the 1.1243 mon open, then the 1.1276 week high
Failure to hold 1.1200 psych and the 1.1172 thu low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1165 week low
Fresh French OAT/budget headlines could shift this read quickly
ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US U-Mich sentiment with inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) during Friday's NY session could materially shift this read
Contracting 1.1161–1.1276 range, lower highs vs higher lows.
EURUSD has rotated inside a 1.1161–1.1276 range since Monday. London drove both Tuesday's rally to the week high and Wednesday's break back below 1.1200 as French OAT stress deepened. Lows at the week low 1.1161, 1.1165 and the Thu low 1.1172 form a run of slightly higher lows, while the Thu high at 1.1226 sits well below Tuesday's peak, so the range is contracting. Price is back above EMA(20) and the 1.1200 round number after the USD faded into NY hours Thursday, retracing roughly 44% of the Tue-Wed drop with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1172, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1200 round number returns focus to the Thu low at 1.1172 and the week low at 1.1161
Close above the Thu high at 1.1226 breaks the lower highs line and exposes the Mon open near 1.1243
Failure to hold the higher lows above 1.1161 confirms a range break lower toward the 1.1100/1.1120 area
ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could break the contracting range
Fresh French OAT spread stress during London session would pressure the 1.1200 pivot again