Lower highs from Asia high, higher lows since NY low.
The Asia-session spike to the 1.1243 Asia high was rejected before London, and selling ran through London and NY to a 1.1187 day low as the USD rebounded on hawkish Fed commentary. Late NY printed a higher low at 1.1196 on rising lows, but the NY cap at 1.1204 has held twice near EMA50. Price is just above the 23.6% level of the day drop fib, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3.4 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 1.11955, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12039, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 NY cap opens the 1.1214 london pivot and the 38.2% day drop fib near 1.1208
Break of the 1.1196 higher low snaps the NY rising lows and puts the 1.1187 day low back in play
Weekend oil and diesel headlines raise Monday gap risk on the open
Range compressing into the Friday close; ATR near 3.4 pips signals thin late-session moves
Asian range broken lower; NY rebound capped below the Asian low.
After an Asian high at 1.1243, London broke the Asian low near 1.1210 and the slide ran to a 1.1187 session low in NY as the USD rebound on the hawkish-Fed read took hold. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1204 NY high, and price is compressing near 1.1200, at the 23.6% fib, into Friday's close.
Support: 1.11955, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12039, 1.12098, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1210 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib at 1.1208, would undercut the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.11955 late NY low reopens the 1.1187 session low
Weekend gap risk on the Trump/Russia diesel headline and oil moves; Asian high at 1.1243 marks the top of the Friday range
Lower highs off Asian peak; higher lows since 1.1187 session low.
London reversed the Asian push to 1.1243 and NY extended the slide to a 1.1187 session low as the dollar firmed on hawkish Fed talk and high oil. Late NY has printed higher lows at 1.1191 and 1.1196 and is pressing 1.1200 psych, with the 1.1204 ny high and EMA50 capping the bounce just above the 23.6% fib.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11955, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12039, 1.12084, 1.12144
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1204 ny high and the 38.2% fib at 1.1208 extends the late-NY recovery toward the 1.1214 swing high
Loss of the 1.1196 higher low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 1.1187 session low back in focus
Thin Friday close; weekend oil/diesel headlines carry gap risk at the open
Lower highs from 1.1242, higher lows off the 1.1187 session low.
EUR reversed from the 1.1242 pre-London high as the dollar rebounded on hawkish Fed talk, bottoming at the 1.1187 session low in NY. The late-NY bounce is printing higher lows into the 1.1200 round number, capped at the 1.1204 swing high where EMA50 sits, right at the 23.6% fib of the day's drop.
Support: 1.11955, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12039, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 swing high clears EMA50 and opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1208, then the 1.1216 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 1.1196 higher low breaks the bounce structure and puts the 1.1187 session low back in play
Weekly close below 1.1200 confirms a 5th weekly decline; thin pre-close liquidity and weekend gap risk could distort the read
Lower highs from 1.1243 Asia high; NY base at 1.1187 with higher lows since.
EURUSD unwound the 1.1243 Asia high through London as the dollar rebounded on hawkish Fed talk, breaking the 1.1216 london shelf before carving a NY session low at 1.1187. The late-NY bounce off the rising higher-low line stalled at 1.1204, just above the 23.6% retracement of the day decline, and price is back at 1.1199 above EMA20 but under EMA50.
Support: 1.1193, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 bounce high puts the 38.2% day decline fib (~1.1208) and 1.1216 london shelf in play
Break of the 1.1193 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 1.1187 session low
Friday close at 21:00 UTC: thin late-NY liquidity and weekend headline risk (Putin diesel pledge, Fedspeak Mon, US CPI Wed)
Day of lower highs from the Asia high; micro higher-low chain since the 1.1187 day low.
EUR/USD slid about 55 pips from the 1.1243 Asia high to a 1.1187 day low in NY hours. The bounce after the soft Michigan print stalled near 1.1201. Late NY has built a rising trendline of higher lows back over the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 61, but price is pinned under the 1.1204 late high and the ema50.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12039, 1.12144
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 late high opens the 1.1214 swing high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1200 round number returns focus to the 1.1187 day low
Friday close in ~90 min thins liquidity; Hammack (Mon) and euro-area HICP (Tue, f/c 3.3%) are the next catalysts
Lower highs from 1.1243 Asian high; higher lows since 1.1187 NY low.
EURUSD faded from the 1.1243 Asian high, broke the 1.1211 Asian low in London and extended to a 1.1187 session low in NY as the USD recovered. Since 16:45 UTC a higher low at 1.1191 has carried price back to the 1.1200 round number and the 23.6% retrace of the intraday drop. The bounce high at 1.1204 sits at the EMA50, with the 50% fib at 1.1215 above.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11908, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12039, 1.1211, 1.12149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 bounce high puts the 1.1211 Asian low and 50% fib at 1.1215 in play
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1191 higher low returns focus to the 1.1187 session low
Friday close approaching after NY hours; thin liquidity can distort late-session moves
Lower highs from 1.1243; first higher low at 1.1191 after the 1.1187 low.
Rejection at the 1.1243 high around London open started a stair-step decline. The London low at 1.1222 gave way and NY extended to a 1.1187 session low as the USD rebound and French fiscal worries kept EUR heavy. After London close price printed a higher low at 1.1191, reclaimed the 1.1200 psych level and is now pressing the ema50 near 1.1205, just under the 38.2% fib at 1.1208.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1191, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.12144, 1.1222
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1214 swing high (near the 50% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence; the london low at 1.1222 sits above it
Loss of 1.1200 psych and the 1.1191 higher low puts the 1.1187 session low back in play
Friday close thins liquidity, and weekend French budget headlines carry gap risk into Monday
Lower highs from 1.1243 day high; base at 1.1187–1.1190 testing 1.1200.
Asia pushed above the Asian range to a 1.1243 day high before a sharp rejection. London and NY then printed lower highs down to a 1.1187 session low as USD recovered on Fed hawkishness and oil. The late-NY bounce has lifted price back above the ema20 and the descending trendline, but it is stalling at the 1.1201 lower high, the 23.6% fib and the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.11945, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 1.1214 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low resumes the downtrend sequence
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity into the weekend; US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC is the next major risk
Lower highs from the Asian high; NY range 1.1187–1.1201.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1211, and NY extended the leg to a 1.1187 session low as USD recovered on hawkish Fedspeak and firmer UoM inflation expectations. The late-NY bounce is capped at 1.1200, the lower high and 23.6% fib of the drop from the 1.1243 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.11908, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12084, 1.12112
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the fib 38.2 at 1.1208, then the Asian low at 1.1211
Loss of the 1.1191 higher low puts the 1.1187 session low back in play; a close below it extends the downtrend
Friday close is approaching; French budget headlines over the weekend could gap the Monday open
Lower highs from the Asia high at 1.1243; higher low at 1.1192 now pressing the 1.1201 lower high.
EURUSD gave back the Asia high at 1.1243 and bled lower through London and NY. The dollar recovered on hawkish Fedspeak and firmer UoM inflation expectations, and the pair printed a session low at 1.1187. The late-NY bounce off a higher low at 1.1192 is now retesting the 1.1201 lower high, which sits on the 23.6% fib, with price back above EMA20 but still below EMA50 and RSI near 56.
Support: 1.11923, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1208, then the 1.1214 swing high (50% fib)
Rejection at 1.1200 and a break of the 1.1192 higher low put the 1.1187 session low back in play
Thin post-London-close Friday liquidity; weekend Iran or French budget headlines could gap the Monday open
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.11969
Lower highs and lows off 1.1243, basing above 1.1187.
EUR/USD has bled from the 1.1243 Asian high through London and NY as the dollar recovered and UoM inflation expectations rose, with lower highs and lower lows down to a 1.1187 session low. The bounce after London close has pushed through the falling trendline. It is stalling just under the 1.1201 lower high, which lines up with the 23.6% fib, leaving a tight consolidation above 1.1187.
Support: 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1214, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 1.1214 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low resumes the downtrend sequence
Recovery toward the 1.1243 Asian high would negate the day's selloff structure
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend oil/Iran headlines and Monday Fedspeak (Hammack) could gap or shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.11932
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high; tight late-NY base above 1.1187.
A pre-London spike to the 1.1243 Asia high was rejected. London and NY then printed successive lower highs and lower lows down to a 1.1187 session low, as USD firmed on higher UoM inflation expectations. Late NY is compressing in a 1.1187–1.1201 base, with the latest bounce stalling at the lower high near the 23.6% sell-off fib and below EMA20.
Support: 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12149, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 50% fib at 1.1215
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Thin Friday-close liquidity; Hammack Mon and euro-area HICP Tue are the next catalysts
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 48 · price 1.11928
Lower highs from the Asia high; NY session range 1.1187–1.1201.
The pre-London spike to the 1.1243 Asia high reversed. London broke below the 1.1211 Asian low, and the slide extended into NY as the dollar firmed on higher UoM inflation expectations. Late NY is basing above the 1.1187 session low, and the latest bounce stalled at 1.1198, just under the 23.6% fib of the Asia high–NY low leg and the 1.1201 swing high.
Support: 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12112, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1211 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Friday late NY: thinning liquidity into the weekend close
Next week: EZ HICP Tue and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; NY basing 1.1187–1.1201.
EURUSD has carved lower highs since the 1.1243 Asian high and broke below the Asian low through London as the USD recovered on Fed hawkishness and firm oil. Late NY hours on Friday are holding a tight 1.1187–1.1201 band, with the last bar lifting off the session low into the descending trendline.
Support: 1.11873, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12112, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and clears the descending trendline; 1.1211 asian low and the 38.2% fib sit just above
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low resumes the decline, with the 1.1145–1.1150 prior lows next
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity; weekend French budget headlines carry gap risk into Monday
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.11904
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1243 pre-London high; late-NY coil at 1.1187–1.1192.
Rejection at the pre-London spike high of 1.1243 started a steady lower-high chain as USD firmed into NY. The UoM sentiment miss with firmer inflation expectations brought only a brief bounce to a lower high at 1.1201. Late NY, after London close, price is coiling just above the 1.1187 session low with ATR(14) shrinking to about 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.11873, 1.1164
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12158
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Failure to hold 1.1187 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1164 prior lows
Reclaiming the 1.1216 breakdown level would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Thin late-Friday liquidity; French budget headlines over the weekend could gap the open
Lower highs from 1.1243; NY compressing above 1.1189.
The sell-off from the 1.1243 pre-London high cut lower highs through London and broke the Asian low at 1.1208 as USD firmed on the hawkish-Fed backdrop. NY has compressed into a 1.1189–1.1201 band, with price pressing the descending line late Friday after London close. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR has shrunk to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.11888, 1.1164
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.1208, 1.12144
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 ny high breaks the descending line and the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.1189 session low extends the sell-off toward the 1.1164 16m low
Reclaim of the 1.1208 asian low and the 1.1214 lower high would neutralise the downtrend read
Thin late-Friday liquidity with no events in the next 8h; EZ HICP Tue and US CPI Wed are the next drivers
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1243 Asian high, compressing at session low.
The Asian session rally to 1.1243 reversed through London as the USD recovered, leaving a chain of lower highs capped by the descending trendline. Price is sitting just above the 1.1189 session low after London close, with the Thursday low at 1.1185 just beneath. RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.11889, 1.11853
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12094
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1201 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1189 session low exposes the Thursday low at 1.1185
Rebound to the fib 38.2 at 1.1209 is the first test of whether the trendline still caps price
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; HICP Tue and US CPI Wed are the next scheduled drivers
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 1.11915
Lower highs from 1.1243; tight NY range 1.1189–1.1201.
The decline from the 1.1243 pre-London high broke the Asian range low and extended through London as USD recovered into the US session. A Michigan sentiment miss with firmer inflation expectations did not dent the dollar. Late NY is compressing between the 1.1189 session low and the 1.1201 NY high under a lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) ~39 and ATR(14) around 5–6 pips.
Support: 1.11894, 1.11853
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12052, 1.1233
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1189 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1185 prior low
Close above the 1.1201 NY high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday decline structure; the 1.1205 prior pivot is the next cap
Recovery toward the 1.1233 london high would retrace most of the decline
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend French budget/political headlines carry gap risk
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 38 · price 1.11925
Lower highs from 1.1243 day high; base forming at 1.1190 session low.
Rejection at the 1.1243 day high late in the Asia session set off a 53-pip grind lower through London and NY, consistent with the digest's read of EUR gains stalling as DXY recovered. The bounce off the UoM miss topped at the 1.1201 NY high, and the 1.1190 session low has held three tests, with price compressing under the falling trendline.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1190 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1184 prior low
Close above 1.1201 NY high breaks the falling trendline; 1.1214 swing high and the 38.2% fib at 1.1210 sit above
No scheduled data into the close; weekend French budget headlines are a gap risk
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since 06:00 UTC · RSI 36 · price 1.11914
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 1.1243, basing at 1.1190 in NY.
The session high at 1.1243 was rejected ahead of London. EURUSD has since printed lower highs along a descending trendline and lost the London low at 1.1205 as USD recovered early losses around the UoM data. NY found a floor at the 1.1190 ny low and the bounce stalled at 1.1201. Price is now retesting that low, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1205, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1184 prior low
Close above the 1.1201 bounce high and the descending highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.1205 london low
Thin late-Friday NY trade; weekend French budget or political headlines are a gap risk for this read
Lower highs from 1.1243; tight 1.1190–1.1201 base.
Lower highs since the 1.1243 late-Asia high. London broke the asian low at 1.1211, and the NY session extended to a 1.1190 session low around the Michigan miss. EUR gave back the bounce despite broad USD softness, with the French fiscal premium still capping it. The rebound stalled at the 1.1201 bounce high near the 23.6% fib, leaving a tight base with RSI(14) ~36 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12112
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1184 prior low
Close above the 1.1201 bounce high and 23.6% fib opens a retest of the 1.1211 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.1211 asian low, near the 38.2% fib, invalidates the breakdown read
Friday NY afternoon liquidity thins into the weekend; no scheduled EUR/USD risk until Monday's Vujčić and Hammack
15:17 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 36 · price 1.11968
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1243 session high; tight 1.1190–1.1201 base in NY.
Pre-London session high at 1.1243 gave way to a steady lower-high/lower-low grind through London and NY, with a double low at 1.1190. The UoM sentiment miss at 14:00 UTC produced only an 11-pip bounce, and the bounce high at 1.1201 sits under the lower-highs line and the 23.6% retracement. Price is holding below both EMAs, RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1201 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.1214 lower high and the 38.2% retracement near 1.1210 come next
Failure to hold the 1.1190 double low exposes the prior low at 1.1184 from Thursday's NY session
Reclaiming 1.1243 session high would negate the intraday downtrend read
Friday NY afternoon into London close thins liquidity; no scheduled EUR/USD risk inside the next 8h
Lower highs from 1.1243 spike; base forming at 1.1190.
The late-Asia spike to the 1.1243 session high was rejected, and London unwound it with a chain of lower highs down to the 1.1190 session low, tested twice around 13:45–14:00 UTC. The Michigan sentiment miss coincided with a shallow bounce. Early NY is capped at the 1.1201 NY high, right at the falling lower-highs line, with the prior low at 1.1184 just beneath.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 NY high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the London sequence and brings the 1.1214 lower high / 38.2% fib into play
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low exposes the 1.1184 prior low
No scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h; thinning Friday NY liquidity can exaggerate moves around the 1.1190 base
Lower-high chain from Asian high 1.1243, basing at 1.1190 in NY.
London unwound the Asian high at 1.1243 in a steady lower-high sequence, and NY extended to a session low at 1.1190 that held on two tests. Price is now pressing the descending trendline near 1.1200, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-30 as the French fiscal overhang keeps rallies capped near 1.12.
Support: 1.11898, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12099, 1.12144
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1214 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection at the trendline near 1.1200 keeps the downtrend read intact
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low exposes the prior low at 1.1184
38.2% fib of the selloff at 1.1210 sits just below the lower high
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1243 Asian high; NY holding a 1.1190 session low.
Price faded from the 1.1243 Asian high through London, broke the Asian range low and printed a lower-high, lower-low chain into a 1.1190 session low in the first hours of NY, as French fiscal risk and Fed hawkishness capped the EUR rebound. Price is now pressing the descending trendline near 1.1200, with RSI(14) near 38 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1243
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 1.1200 breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1214 swing high next
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low exposes yesterday's 1.1184 prior low
French budget headlines remain a weekend gap risk into the Friday close
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1243 Asia high, trading below Asian range.
The 1.1243 Asia high faded through London, which broke the Asian range low near 1.1210. NY hours extended the lower-high sequence to a 1.1190 session low as high oil and French debt worries capped EUR. Price sits just above the 1.1184 prior low, RSI(14) near 31 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number and the lower-high trendline breaks the descending sequence
Recovery above the 1.1214 lower high puts price back inside the Asian range and points to the 1.1243 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low and the 1.1184 prior low extends the lower-low chain
UoM 1-yr inflation expectations from the 14:00 UTC Michigan release could shift USD tone during NY hours
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, decline slowing into the session low · RSI 27 · price 1.11928
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-Asia rejection; tight base forming at 1.1191–1.1200.
After a rejection at the 1.1243 session high late in Asia, London broke below the Asian range. Lower highs followed (the latest lower high at 1.1214), and early NY trade has pressed the 1.1191 session low, just above yesterday's 1.1184 prior low. That fits the digest's read of the USD correction stalling, with RSI(14) near 27 and the 1.1200 round number now capping a small base.
Support: 1.11907, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, about 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1191 session low and 1.1184 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1214 lower high near the 38.2% fib, would break the lower-high chain
Session high at 1.1243 marks the top of the decline and the origin of the fib
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into NY open · RSI 29 · price 1.11981
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian range broken to the downside.
London sold steadily off the 1.1243 asian high, broke the Asian range low near 1.1211 and lost the 1.1200 round number as oil and French debt worries reasserted. The lower-highs trendline is still respected into the first hour of NY, and RSI(14) sits near 29. The session low at 1.1192 is holding for now, with the prior low at 1.1184 the next reference below.
Support: 1.11924, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the lower-highs trendline (~1.1204) would stall the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 1.1214 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 50% fib (~1.1218) into view
Failure to hold the 1.1184 prior low extends the lower-low sequence beyond yesterday's range
Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and U-Mich sentiment plus inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1243 Asian high; Asian range low broken during London.
London unwound the Asian advance from the 1.1243 Asian high, carving lower highs under a falling trendline and breaking the Asian range low as oil and French debt worries reasserted. Early NY has the pair hovering at the 1.1200 psych level, just above the 1.1192 session low and Thursday's prior low at 1.1184, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.11924, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1214 lower high and the falling trendline negates the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% fib sits at the same area
Break of the 1.1192 session low exposes Thursday's prior low at 1.1184
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and U-Mich inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery toward the 1.1243 Asian high would mark a full retrace of the London decline
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia peak; Asian range broken lower.
EUR has printed lower highs since the 1.1243 Asia peak. London broke the Asian low at 1.1211 and has now slipped through 1.1200 to a session low at 1.1197, as oil and French debt worries reasserted. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme, and price is pressing toward yesterday's prior low at 1.1184, with the descending lower-high trendline capping near the 1.1206 lower high.
Support: 1.11971, 1.11844, 1.11797
Resistance: 1.12057, 1.12144, 1.12326
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1197 session low exposes the 1.1184 prior low and the 1.1180 24h low
M15 close above the 1.1206 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.1214 swing high at the 38.2% fib is next
Only a recovery through the 1.1233 london high would negate the session downtrend
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and UoM sentiment plus inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Downtrend, London-led · RSI 29 · price 1.12037
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.12425 Asia high; Asian low broken.
The Asian-session run to the 1.12425 asia high has fully unwound through London. A steady lower-high sequence took price back through the 1.1210 asian low and down to the 1.1200 round number into the NY open as oil and French debt worries reasserted. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme. The trendline off the 08:00 UTC lower highs is still capping bounces.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.12144, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12144 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence
Recovery back above the 1.1210 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.1200 round number exposes yesterday's 1.11844 swing low
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and U-Mich sentiment plus inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.12082
Asian range broken lower in London; lower-high/lower-low chain intact, small bounce off session low.
London faded the 1.1243 Asia high, broke the 1.1210 asian low and set a session low at 1.1205. The bounce stalled at a 1.1214 lower high under the falling trendline, and RSI(14) sits near 33 into the first hour of NY. The overnight lift from easing French yields and a softer USD has unwound.
Support: 1.12052, 1.1200, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.12144, 1.12326
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1214 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1233 london high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.1205 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1184 prior low
Asian low at 1.1210 now overhead; rejection there keeps price below the broken range
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and U-Mich sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1243 Asian high; Asian range low broken during London.
Supply capped every bounce after the 1.1243 Asian high. The London session then broke the Asian low at 1.1210 and printed a lower-low chain into the 1.1205 session low, a pullback inside EUR's broader rebound as the USD correction paused ahead of UoM. Price is back at 1.1210 and pressing the falling trendline, with the lower high at 1.1223 sitting near the 38.2% fib of the selloff.
Support: 1.1210, 1.12052, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12234, 1.12326, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1223 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1233 London high back in view
Failure to hold 1.1205 extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's prior low at 1.1184
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection at the falling trendline keeps the London downtrend intact below the 1.1243 Asian high
London fading the Asian rally, Asian range low broken.
London has unwound the Asian push to the 1.1243 session high. It printed a falling trendline of lower highs and slipped through the Asian low near 1.1210 to a 1.1205 session low, with RSI(14) near 33, soft but not oversold. The fade follows USD dip-buying after the Iran-driven correction, and price now sits just above yesterday's NY swing low at 1.1201.
Support: 1.12052, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12158, 1.12222, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1216 breakdown level and the 1.1222 lower high, and through the falling trendline, would neutralise the London fade
Failure to hold the 1.1201 swing low exposes the 1.1184 yday low
A rebound stalling inside the 38.2–61.8% fib retracement of the 1.1243 session high to 1.1205 drop keeps the lower-high sequence intact
ECB's Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY session
11:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 05:30 UTC · RSI 27 · price 1.12073
Asian range low broken in London; price testing 61.8% fib of yesterday's rally.
London has unwound the Asian push to the 1.1243 day high. It has printed lower highs under a falling trendline and slipped below the 1.1210 Asian low to the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 1.1184–1.1243 rally. RSI(14) sits near 27 after a steady grind, and the yield-relief bounce in the digest stalled short of the 1.1240–1.1265 zone.
Support: 1.12066, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12103, 1.12222, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1210 Asian low would mark the break as a false break. Reclaiming the 1.1222 lower high and the falling trendline negates the lower-high sequence.
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1201 swing low and the 1.1200 round number, then yesterday's NY prior low at 1.1184.
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and UoM sentiment plus inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session.
Lower highs off 1.1243 asian high, testing asian low.
The 1.1243 asian high was rejected into London, which capped at the 1.1233 london high and has carved lower highs along a falling trendline. Price broke the 1.1216 london shelf and is now testing the asian low near 1.1210, with RSI(14) near 29. The move pares the softer-USD rebound flagged in the macro read.
Support: 1.12103, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1210 exposes the 1.1200 swing low from late NY yesterday, then the 1.1184 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.1216 london shelf and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the London pullback, with the london high at 1.1233 above
ECB Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US U-Mich sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 1.12145
LH/LL chain off 1.1243 Asian high, testing Asian low.
Mid-London, EUR/USD has faded the Asian push to 1.1243, which stalled at the 1.1240 cap as the USD correction paused. It has printed lower highs since the 1.1233 London high and now sits on the 1.1210 Asian low, near the 50% retrace of yesterday's 1.1184 prior low to 1.1243 rally. RSI(14) is around 37, ATR(14) about 6 pips, and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.12103, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12222, 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1210 asian low brings the 1.1201 ny low and then the 1.1184 prior low into focus
M15 close above the lower high trendline near 1.1222 eases the London fade read; 1.1233 london high caps above
ECB Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US U-Mich sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.12178
Lower highs compressing onto a flat 1.1216 base.
Asia spiked to the 1.1243 asian high into the 1.1240 cap and was rejected. Mid-London, the USD relief move has stalled, and price is printing lower highs from the 1.1233 london high onto a london low at 1.1216, tested three times. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib retrace of yesterday's 1.1184–1.1243 leg, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.12158, 1.12103
Resistance: 1.12234, 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 london low exposes the asian low at 1.1210 and the 50% fib near 1.1213
Close above the 1.1223 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the london high at 1.1233 back in play
ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC, now) and Schnabel (13:30 UTC), then US UMich at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.12183
Lower highs into a flat base at 1.1216 after a false break above Thursday's high.
Asia pushed through Thursday's 1.1226 high to 1.1243 (the asian high) but London rejected it, a false break that has retraced nearly 80% of the Asian rally despite the softer-USD backdrop. Price has printed lower highs since the 1.1233 london high and is now testing a flat london low at 1.1216 for the third time since 08:45 UTC. RSI(14) sits near 42 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1210, 1.1201
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.1233, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1216 london low exposes the 1.1210 asian low, then Thursday evening's 1.1201 swing low
Close back above the 1.1223 lower high and the 1.1233 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1243 asian high would turn the false break into a breakout
ECB Cipollone at 10:15 UTC and Schnabel at 13:30 UTC, then US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could reset the session range
Lower highs below the Asian high, London session low set at 1.12158.
Asia ran from the 1.12044 asian low to the 1.12425 asian high as French OAT yields eased and the dollar softened. London has since been rejected below the 1.1233 london high and printed a session low at 1.12158 at 08:45 UTC. Price is now sitting at the 61.8% of the Asian rally, under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, and the prior high at 1.1226 sits just overhead.
Support: 1.12158, 1.12044, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12158 london low opens the 1.12044 asian low and the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1233 london high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 1.12425 asian high back in focus
Holding above the prior high at 1.1226 would neutralise the London pullback read
ECB Cipollone 10:15 UTC, Schnabel 13:30 UTC and US UMich at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back in London · RSI 42 · price 1.12198
Lower highs from 1.12425 Asian high, London low at 1.12158.
The Asian rally from 1.1210 met rejection at 1.12425, and London has printed lower highs from 1.1233 plus a dip to the 1.12158 London low. Price sits below EMA20/50 and under yesterday's 1.12264 prior high, with RSI(14) near 42, as the two-day USD pullback on easing yields and Iran de-escalation loses momentum.
Support: 1.12158, 1.1210, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12158 London low opens the Asian low at 1.1210, then the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.1233 London high breaks the lower-high trendline from the Asian high
Reclaim of the 1.12264 prior high would put price back above the 50% of the Asian rally
ECB's Cipollone (10:15 UTC), Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US UMich sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
London-open high rejected, lower highs, range floor broken.
London open pushed above the Asian high to a 1.1243 London high and was rejected. That printed lower highs and an 08:45 UTC break of the 1.1222 range floor to a 1.1216 session low. Price now sits on the 38.2% level of the rally fib (1.1184–1.1243), below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 39, as the two-day EUR rebound on softer USD stalls short of the 1.1240 resistance flagged in the digest.
Support: 1.12158, 1.12105, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12225, 1.12335, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1222 range floor and the lower-highs line would undo the range break
Loss of the 1.1216 session low exposes the asian low at 1.1210, then the 1.1200 round number near the 61.8% rally fib
Reclaim of the asian high at 1.1233 shifts focus back to the 1.1243 london high
ECB's Cipollone (10:15 UTC) and Schnabel (13:30 UTC), plus US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Asian high rejected, lower high at 1.1233, range floor broken.
The Asian spike to the 1.1243 asian high was rejected. London has since printed a lower high at 1.1233 and broken the 1.1222 asian floor, reaching a 1.1216 session low. Price sits on the 38.2% fib of the 1.1184–1.1243 leg, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 6 pips, while the softer-USD backdrop that drove the two-day rebound remains in place.
Support: 1.12158, 1.12103, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12222, 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1222 asian floor negates the range break; london high at 1.1233 is the next cap
Loss of the 1.1216 session low exposes the 50% fib at 1.1213, the asia low at 1.1210 and then the 1.1200 round number
Rising support from the 1.1184 low runs near 1.1214; a break below it ends the intraday higher-low chain
ECB's Cipollone (10:15 UTC), Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US UMich (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Rejection from 1.1243 Asia high, tight London range 1.1222–1.1233.
Softer USD lifted the pair to an Asia high at 1.1243, but that spike was rejected, and London has since held a tight range between the 1.1222 range low and the 1.1233 London high. Price is just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43, holding above the 38.2% fib (~1.1220) of yesterday's 1.1184–1.1243 rally.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 range low exposes the fib 50% at 1.1214
Close above the 1.1233 London high reopens the 1.1243 Asia high
ECB's Cipollone 10:15 UTC and Schnabel 13:30 UTC could break the London range
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 49 · price 1.1229
HL chain from 1.1172 intact; London boxed 1.1222–1.1233 under rejected 1.1243 high.
A USD selloff on easing yields and faded Iran risk lifted EURUSD from 1.1172 yesterday to a 1.1243 session high just before London open, where it met rejection. Mid-London, price is compressing in a 1.1222–1.1233 range with the london low sitting on the rising support line. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and the pullback is shallow, holding above the 38.2 fib at 1.1215.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1215, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1243, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 london low and rising support breaks the HL chain, exposing the 38.2 fib at 1.1215 and the asian low at 1.1210
Close above the 1.1233 range top reopens the 1.1243 session high, with 1.1265 key res beyond
ECB's Cipollone at 10:15 UTC, Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US U-Mich inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the range in either direction
Renewed OAT-Bund widening headlines would undercut the USD-driven bounce
Higher lows intact; early London compressing below a rejected spike high.
Rising lows from yesterday's NY dip at 1.1184 carried through Asia on the softer USD, with easing yields and Iran de-escalation behind the move. The 05:45 UTC push to the 1.1243 spike high was rejected. Early London is now compressing between the 1.1222 london low and the 1.1233 london high, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 london low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the 1.1210 asian low
M15 close above the 1.1233 london high reopens the 1.1243 spike high
EcoFin, Cipollone (10:15 UTC) and US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection · RSI 54 · price 1.12309
Higher lows intact; London consolidating 1.1222–1.1233 above prior high.
Softer USD on Iran de-escalation and the yield correction carried EUR through the prior high at 1.1226 in Asia. The spike to the session high at 1.1243 was rejected, and the pullback low at 1.1222 held near the 38.2% fib of the rising-lows leg. London is coiling under its london high at 1.1233, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.12264, 1.12222, 1.12112
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.12425, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 pullback low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the asian low at 1.1211 in play
Reclaim of the 1.1243 session high opens key resist at 1.1265
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Pre-London spike to 1.1243 rejected; early London holding a 1.1222–1.1233 band.
Asia extended the rally off the 1.1210 Asian low, helped by a softer USD after Trump's Iran comments and easing yields, before a pre-London push to the 1.1243 spike high was rejected. Early London is compressing in a 1.1222–1.1233 band, with the London low sitting on the 61.8% fib of that leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 53, price is pinned to EMA20, and ATR(14) is around 5 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1243, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 London low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.1210 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.1233 London high reopens the 1.1243 spike high, with UOB resistance at 1.1265 beyond it
EcoFin at 08:00 UTC and ECB's Cipollone at 10:15 UTC could break the London band
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are the main USD-side risk to this read
Higher-low chain since NY close; late-Asia break of Asian high rejected at 1.1243, now retesting from above.
Softer US yields and an easing French bond rout carried EUR/USD through the 1.1228 asian high late in the Asia session. Price was rejected at the 1.1243 session high, near UOB's 1.1240, and pulled back to a 1.1222 pullback low. The London open has reclaimed 1.1230 with the higher-lows trendline off the 1.1210 asian low still holding.
Support: 1.12284, 1.12222, 1.12103
Resistance: 1.12425, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1243 session high opens 1.1265 uob resist
Break of the 1.1222 pullback low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.1210 asian low
ECB Cipollone 10:15 UTC and US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Renewed widening in the French-German 10y spread would override the overnight grind higher
Higher lows intact; tight range 1.1222–1.1229 below spike high.
The softer-USD rebound off yesterday's 1.1172 low carried through Asia, but the late-Asia push to the 1.1243 spike high was rejected. Price is now coiling between the 1.1222 pullback low and the 1.1229 range cap into early London, sitting on the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR(14) under 5 pips. Rising lows from 1.1204 remain intact, with the asian base at 1.1210 below.
Support: 1.12222, 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12288, 1.12425, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 pullback low breaks the rising lows and exposes the asian base at 1.1210, then the 38.2% fib near 1.1215
Close above the 1.1229 range cap reopens the 1.1243 spike high; beyond that, the 1.1265 uob level is the next reference
Loss of the 1.1201 ny swing low would mark the first lower low since yesterday's rebound
ECB Cipollone at 10:15 UTC and Schnabel at 13:30 UTC, then US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could break the current range
Renewed widening in French OAT spreads could override the rising-lows read
Higher lows since Asia intact; pre-London spike above range fully reversed.
A pre-London push cleared the 1.1228 asian high and yesterday's NY high, then printed a session high at 1.1243 before reversing back into the range. The USD-led bounce has stalled there, a false break. Price is holding the 1.1223 swing low near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price just below EMA20.
Support: 1.1223, 1.1210, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1243
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1223 swing low exposes the 1.1210 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.1228 asian high and a close above the 1.1243 session high negates the false break
Loss of the 1.1200 round number turns structure toward yesterday's 1.1172 low
London open plus EcoFin (08:00 UTC), Cipollone (10:15) and Schnabel (13:30) could materially shift this read
US U-Mich sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could reprice USD
Higher lows through Asia; false break above Asian high reversed pre-London.
A softer USD after Trump's Iran comments lifted EUR/USD through Asia on rising lows from the 1.1210 Asian low. The late-Asia push through the Asian high at 1.1228 printed a session high at 1.1243, then reversed before London. Price is now back at 1.1227, near the 50% of the overnight leg fib. RSI is neutral and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 1.12244, 1.12103, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12284, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1243 session high negates the false-break read
Loss of the 1.1224 pullback low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.1210 Asian low
London open is ~30 min away; acceptance above or below the 1.1228 Asian high sets the session tone
EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and French spread headlines could test the 1.1200 round number
06:16 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled after late-session rejection · RSI 51 · price 1.12269
Higher lows since Asia, spike to 1.1243 rejected back into 1.1224–1.1228 range.
Asia extended the softer-USD bounce from the 1.1210 asia low to a session high at 1.12425, but the push out of the 1.1224–1.1228 range was rejected inside two bars and price is back at the 50% fib near 1.1227, just over yesterday's NY spike high. Ahead of London open, price sits on the range floor and the Asia trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR is under 4 pips.
Support: 1.12235, 1.12103
Resistance: 1.12302, 1.12425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 range floor and Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain toward the 1.1210 asia low
Reclaiming the fib 38.2 at 1.1230 reopens the 1.12425 session high
EcoFin (08:00 UTC) French fiscal headlines and Schnabel (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
US U-Mich sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are a USD rebound risk
06:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rejection at session high · RSI 57 · price 1.12307
Asian range break to 1.12425, pulled back to 1.1228.
Asia extended Thursday's soft-USD bounce, broke the 1.1222–1.1228 range and spiked to a 1.12425 session high before a sharp rejection. Price is back at the old asia high near 1.1228, sitting on the 38.2% of the asia leg fib and the asia trendline into London open. ATR is about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.12284, 1.12217, 1.12103
Resistance: 1.12425, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1228 asia high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.1222 range low (61.8% of the asia leg fib)
Loss of the asia trendline and the 1.1210 asia low would unwind the overnight leg
Reclaim of the 1.12425 session high puts the 1.1250 round number in view
EcoFin 08:00 UTC and any French spread headlines could reverse the bounce; Cipollone 10:15 UTC is the next ECB risk
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 76 · price 1.12399
Asia breakout above prior-day high, HH/HL chain intact.
Asia extended the softer-USD, lower-yield bounce off Thursday's 1.1172 low. A 1.1222–1.1228 consolidation resolved higher late in the session, clearing the prior high at 1.1226 and the digest's 1.1230 range top to a session high of 1.12425. RSI(14) near 76 is running hot with London open about an hour away; the prior high also lines up with the fib 23.6% retracement of the rally.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1222, 1.1211
Resistance: 1.12425, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the prior high at 1.1227 (fib 23.6%) turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1222 range base reopens the asian low at 1.1211
Session high at 1.12425 and the 1.1250 psych level are the next areas to watch for rejection or break
EcoFin 08:00 UTC on French fiscal headlines and Cipollone 10:15 UTC can shift the London read
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, extending in late Asia · RSI 73 · price 1.12345
HH/HL chain from the 1.1172 low; break above Asian consolidation.
Late Asia session broke out of the 1.1222–1.1228 consolidation and through the NY high, printing a fresh session high at 1.1235. The rally from the 1.1172 low holds a higher-low sequence along rising support, with the softer USD and lower US yields behind the bounce. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not stretched, and ATR is a quiet ~3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1222
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1228 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.1222 range floor breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support line
Acceptance above the 1.1235 session high puts the 1.1250 round number in play
EcoFin at 08:00 UTC: French fiscal headlines could reverse the bounce early in the London session
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding to new session highs · RSI 63 · price 1.12304
Higher lows since Thursday's 1.11716 low; Asia broke out of its 1.1222–1.1228 range.
Late in the Asia session, price cleared the 1.12217–1.12284 consolidation and Thursday's 1.12264 high, printing a session high at 1.12309. Softer USD and lower US yields are extending the bounce off Thursday's 1.11716 low, with rising support from that low intact. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched, and ATR(14) of about 3 pips reflects thin Asian trade ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12284, 1.12217, 1.12112
Resistance: 1.12309, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.12284 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.12217 range low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.12112 asian low
Acceptance above the 1.12309 session high leaves the 1.1250 round number as the next reference
A break of rising support from the Thursday low would undercut the uptrend read; the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday low–session high leg sits near 1.1208
EcoFin at 08:00 UTC: French spread headlines could reverse the bounce, while UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are the USD-side risk
The Asia session extended yesterday's NY rebound from 1.1172. Price cleared the prior high at 1.1226 and is printing a session high of 1.1231 late in Asia, with the USD still soft on easing Treasury yields. A higher-low chain from the 1.1211 Asian low holds along the rising trendline, and the 1.1222 pullback low is intact. RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) around 3 pips show a slow, compressed grind ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12264, 1.12217, 1.12112
Resistance: 1.12306, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1226 prior high on a closing basis would turn the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 1.1222 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.1231 session high puts the 1.1250 round number in focus
London open (07:00 UTC) typically expands the compressed Asian range
EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC) could shift this read, as could any French spread headlines
Higher lows since the 1.11844 NY swing low; Asia break of the prior high, now a tight range.
Asia session pushed through yesterday's 1.12264 prior high to a 1.12284 session high, helped by a softer USD on easing yields. It has since compressed in a 6-pip band above the 1.12217 asian low, with the higher-low chain from the 1.11844 NY swing low intact and London open still ahead.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12284, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12217 asian low puts price back inside yesterday's range and weakens the breakout read
Clearance of the 1.12284 session high and the 1.1230 round number extends the higher-high sequence
Pullbacks holding the 1.12103 pre-asia low or the 1.12008 swing low (61.8% fib) keep the higher-low structure intact
ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC), Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) could shift the read; French spread headlines remain the main EUR swing factor
04:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.12249
Higher lows off the 1.1172 London low; tight Asian consolidation just above the prior high.
EUR/USD has recovered from the 1.1172 London low, set on French spread stress, as easing US yields weighed on the USD. Asia pushed through the NY spike prior high at 1.12264 to an asian high of 1.12284, then compressed into a 6-pip band above the 1.12217 range low. RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and ATR has shrunk to about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12103, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12284 asian high extends the higher-high sequence into London
Loss of the 1.12217 range low reopens the asian low at 1.1210, with the 1.1200 psych level and 50% fib below
EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC) on French fiscal and hike signals could break the Asian compression
Higher lows since NY session; tight 6-pip compression just under the asian high.
Asia extended the NY recovery from the 1.1172 European low. It lifted through the 1.12264 ny high to the 1.12284 asian high as USD faded on softer yields. Price has since compressed around 1.1225 into late Asia, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) at about 3 pips; the swing low at 1.12217 sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12103, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12284 asian high (tested twice) resumes the higher-high sequence into London open
Failure to hold the 1.12217 swing low opens the 61.8% fib near 1.1217 and the 1.12103 asian low
EcoFin on France (08:00 UTC) and Schnabel (13:30 UTC) could shift the read; a loss of 1.1200 psych would unwind the NY rebound
US UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC is the USD-side risk to this structure
Higher lows from 1.1184 NY low; tight late-Asia range under 1.1228.
The recovery from yesterday's 1.1184 NY-session low carried through Asia. Easing US yields and a fading dollar lifted price to an Asian high at 1.1228, just above the prior 1.1226 NY high. Late Asia is now coiling in a 6-pip band above the 1.1222 pullback low, with the 1.1211 Asian low sitting on the 38.2% fib of the NY low–Asia high move. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR(14) is roughly 3.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12105, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12284, 1.1230
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1228 Asian high and the 1.1230 round number extends the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1222 pullback low exposes the 1.1211 Asian low / 38.2% fib
A break of the 1.1200 psych handle unwinds the NY-session recovery
EcoFin 08:00 UTC headlines on France could materially shift this read
Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and US UMich at 14:00 UTC could also shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling late Asia · RSI 62 · price 1.12244
Higher lows off 1.1172; coiling under equal highs at 1.1228.
The rebound from yesterday's 1.1172 European low, driven by easing US yields and a fading USD, carried into Asia. Price poked through the 1.1226 prior high, but equal highs at the 1.1228 Asian high have capped twice. Price is now coiling just below with ATR(14) near 3 pips, holding the 1.1222 swing low. The 50% level of the day swing fib sits on the 1.12 handle.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12099, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1228 asian high clears the equal highs and the prior high
Loss of the 1.1222 swing low exposes the 1.1210 asian low
Break of the asian low brings the 1.12 handle / 50% day swing fib into play
London open, EcoFin 08:00 UTC and Cipollone 10:15 UTC; fresh French spread headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY low 1.1201; Asia stalling at session high.
Late Asia session: the grind higher from the ny low at 1.1201 lifted price just past yesterday's NY high to a 1.12284 session high, helped by softer USD and easing yields after Trump's Iran comments. Price has since held a tight 1.12217–1.12284 box for two hours above the rising trendline from the asia base, RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12284, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12217 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 1.12103 asia base
Close above the 1.12284 session high clears the 1.1230 psych level
Failure to hold the asia base puts the ny low at 1.1201 and the 1.1200 handle back in play
London open, EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and French spread headlines could shift this read; Schnabel 13:30 and UMich 14:00 UTC later
03:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at highs · RSI 62 · price 1.12249
Higher lows since 1.1172; equal highs capping at 1.1228.
Recovery from the 1.1172 European low, driven by easing US yields and a softer USD after Trump's Iran comments, extended in Asia. Price cleared the 1.1215 asian range top and briefly traded through the 1.1226 prior high. Twin tests of the 1.1228 asia high were capped and price is holding just above the 1.1222 pullback low. RSI(14) near 62; ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12154, 1.12044
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1228 asia high extends the breakout through the prior high
Break of the 1.1222 pullback low and the rising support line points to a fade back toward the 1.1215 asian range
Return below 1.1215 turns the Asian move into a false break and puts the 1.1204 rollover low back in play
EcoFin 08:00 UTC: fresh French fiscal headlines around the London open could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 71 · price 1.12274
Higher lows since the 1.1184 NY pullback; session high 1.1228 tested.
Late Asia session has extended Thursday's NY recovery from the 1.1172 day low, which came as USD faded on softer yields. Price lifted off the 1.1210 Asia base to a session high at 1.1228, marginally above the 1.1226 NY high, with higher lows intact along the rising lows line. RSI(14) near 71 is warm, not extreme, and ATR is compressed to roughly 4 pips.
Support: 1.12264, 1.12217, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1222 pullback low and the rising lows line breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1210 Asia base
Slipping back under the 1.1226 NY high after the session high push to 1.1228 would mark a false break of yesterday's top
EcoFin comments on France at 08:00 UTC, then Schnabel at 13:30 and US UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; fresh French spread stress is the main EUR downside risk
Higher lows since 1.1184, Asia HH just above NY high.
EUR has recovered from yesterday's 1.1172 London low as US yields eased, holding a higher-low chain off 1.1184 and the 1.1201 ny low. Late in the Asia session, price edged past the 1.1226 ny high to a 1.1228 session high, and the shallow pullback held at 1.1222 inside a quiet ~4-pip ATR. Price is holding above the 38.2% of the ny low to session high fib.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1228 session high extends the Asia higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1222 pullback low, then the 1.1210 asia base, breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.1201 ny low would undo the full rebound from 1.1184
EcoFin 08:00 UTC France headlines and OAT-Bund spread could reverse the move at London open
Iran strike-plan follow-ups could revive a USD bid during the session
02:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London dip · RSI 68 · price 1.12245
Asia HH above NY high, shallow pullback holding.
Late in the Asia session, price ran 2 pips past the NY high at 1.1226 to a session high of 1.1228 before easing. The pullback found demand at 1.1222, right at the 38.2% fib of the move up from the Asian low. The higher-low chain from yesterday's London low at 1.1172 lines up with the digest's softer US yields and DXY testing 102.00.
Support: 1.12217, 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1210 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.1228 session high turns the poke through the ny high into a breakout
A move under the ny low at 1.1201 negates the post-NY rebound structure
EcoFin on France at 08:00 UTC; Schnabel at 13:30 UTC and UMich sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 1.1223
Higher lows from rollover low; rejection just above prior NY high.
Early Asia session extended the recovery off yesterday's 1.1172 London low as USD faded with easing yields. Price briefly cleared the 1.1226 NY high to a 1.1228 session high, then met rejection back to the 1.1220 psych level. Rising lows from the 1.1204 rollover low and the 1.1211 Asian low remain intact.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1211, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1228 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
Break below the 1.1211 Asian low and 1.1204 rollover low ends the rising lows chain and exposes 1.1200, the 50% fib
EcoFin comments on France at 08:00 UTC and Cipollone at 10:15 UTC could shift the read around London open
Iran strike-plan headlines could revive the USD bid and reverse the Asia gains
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Thursday's London low · RSI 68 · price 1.12256
HL chain from 1.1172; Asia pressing NY high.
Asia extended the higher-low sequence off Thursday's 1.1172 London low and cleared the 1.1219 flip level, tagging a 1.1228 session high just above the 1.1226 NY high. RSI(14) is near 68, and the bounce tracks the digest's softer US yields and fading USD.
Support: 1.12194, 1.12103, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12284
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1219 flip level would turn the poke through the ny high into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.1228 session high extends the breakout leg
Loss of the asia low at 1.1210 and the rising lows trendline ends the HL chain, exposing the fib 50% at 1.1200
EcoFin comments on France (08:00 UTC) and US UMich (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.1172 low; Asia broke the 1.1217 prior high.
Asia session has extended the late-NY recovery from the 1.1172 European low. It broke the 1.1217 prior high and is now pressing the 1.1226 NY high, with softer US yields and a fading dollar behind the move. Higher lows are intact along the rising lows line from the 1.1201 swing low, with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR around 3 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1210, 1.1201
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 NY high clears yesterday's session top and brings the 1.1230 psych level into view; rejection there leaves price inside yesterday's range
Slip back below the 1.1217 prior high and the 1.1210 asian low would unwind the Asia breakout
Loss of the rising lows line and the 1.1201 swing low (near the rebound fib 38.2% at ~1.1205) breaks the higher-low chain
EcoFin 08:00 UTC on France, Schnabel 13:30 UTC and UMich 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; fresh French spread headlines are the main downside risk for EUR
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 70 · price 1.12244
Higher lows since the 1.1172 European low, pressing the prior high.
Higher lows have stacked since Thursday's 1.1172 European low, after the USD faded on Trump's Iran comments. Asia session has lifted out of its 1.1210–1.1215 band to 1.1224, just under the 1.1226 prior high from the NY spike, with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR around 3 pips. The 1.1200 pullback low sits beneath as the base of the sequence.
Support: 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 prior high clears the NY spike top, with 1.1250 psych next
Break below the 1.1210 asian low and the higher-low line undercuts the sequence
Loss of the 1.1200 pullback low ends the higher-low read
EcoFin 08:00 UTC and Cipollone 10:15 UTC: French spread headlines could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend from the 1.1172 low, momentum steady · RSI 68 · price 1.12211
Higher lows since NY; early Asia testing the prior high near 1.1220.
Pair rebounded from the 1.1172 low into NY as US yields retreated and the USD faded on the Trump/Iran headlines. It has since printed rising lows at the 1.1201 swing low and the 1.1210 Asian low. Early Asia is now probing the 1.1219 prior high with the 1.1226 NY high overhead, on a thin 3-4 pip ATR.
Support: 1.12194, 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 NY high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.1230 round number
Slip back below the 1.1219 prior high turns the Asian push into a failed test
Loss of the 1.1210 Asian low breaks the rising lows trendline
EcoFin at 08:00 UTC and French OAT headlines into London could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1200 since NY; pressing the 1.1219 NY high.
Asia session is extending NY's recovery. Higher lows off the 1.1200 psych pivot have carried price back to 1.1219, the NY high that capped the late push. EUR reclaimed 1.1200 after London's slide to 1.1172 on French OAT stress, as the USD faded on Trump's Iran comments. RSI(14) ~65; ATR of ~3.4 pips reflects thin Asian hours.
Support: 1.12103, 1.12008
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 day high extends the higher-high chain
Rejection at the 1.1219 NY high plus a break of the 1.1210 Asian low flattens the read
M15 close below rising support near 1.1213 breaks the overnight higher-low sequence
Failure to hold 1.1200 psych revives the London-session selloff structure
EcoFin 08:00 UTC and ECB Cipollone 10:15 UTC into London; fresh French OAT headlines could materially shift this read
EURUSD has built a higher-low chain off the 1.1172 London low (1.1184, 1.1201, 1.1210) as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments, and early Asia is now pressing the 1.1219 swing high. The NY spike to the 1.1226 day high still caps the move; RSI(14) near 64 with ATR around 3 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 1.12103, 1.12008, 1.11716
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1226 day high extends the higher-high sequence beyond the NY spike
Rejection at the 1.1219 swing high keeps price ranging between it and the 1.1210 Asian low
Loss of the 1.1210 Asian low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.1201 swing low and the 1.1200 pivot
A break below 1.1200 reopens the London low at 1.1172 on renewed French OAT stress
EcoFin (08:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone (10:15 UTC) land in the London session and could shift this read
00:32 UTC
Recovery off London low, now compressing · RSI 60 · price 1.12161
Higher lows since 1.1172; pennant forming below the 1.1226 NY high.
EUR/USD bounced from the 1.1172 London low as US yields eased and the USD faded, spiking to the 1.1226 NY high before carving a pennant of higher lows and lower highs. The Asia session is pressing the 1.1218 Asian high with RSI(14) near 60. Price sits above the rising trendline, with the 1.1201 swing low near the 1.1200 pivot.
Support: 1.12103, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12177, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 Asian high and the pennant top opens a retest of the 1.1226 NY high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1210 Asian low shifts focus to the 1.1201 swing low near the 1.1200 pivot
Loss of the 1.1184 pullback low (deep fib zone of the NY recovery) negates the higher-low sequence
EcoFin at 08:00 UTC and French OAT headlines could materially shift this read; Schnabel and U-Mich follow later Friday
Early Asia session has EURUSD at 1.1217, pressing the 1.1219 prior high after NY reclaimed 1.1200 from the 1.1172 London low as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments and softer oil. Lows have stepped up from the 1.1184 NY low to the 1.1201 swing low, and the overnight range base at 1.1210 is holding. ATR near 3.6 pips reflects thin Asia conditions inside the London low to NY high swing.
Support: 1.1210, 1.12008, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 prior high exposes the 1.1226 day high
Loss of the 1.1210 range base returns focus to the 1.1201 swing low and the 1.1200 pivot
Break below the 1.1184 NY low would undo the higher-low sequence within the London low to NY high swing
EcoFin, ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US U-Mich (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; fresh French OAT headlines are the main downside risk
00:01 UTC
Recovered intraday, compressing after NY rally · RSI 55 · price 1.12136
Pennant: lower highs from 1.1226, higher lows from 1.1184, holding above 1.12 pivot.
London broke below the Asian range and reached 1.1172. That proved a false break: the NY rally, on a fading USD after Trump's Iran comments and softer oil, printed the 1.1226 day high. Since then, lower highs from the day high and higher lows from the 1.1184 NY low have squeezed early-Asia price into a pennant around 1.1210–1.1217, above the 1.1204 rollover low and the 1.12 pivot.
Support: 1.12044, 1.1200, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12169, 1.12264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 lower high breaks the pennant top and puts the 1.1226 day high back in play
Loss of the 1.1204 rollover low and the 1.12 pivot reopens the 1.1184 NY low
Fri ECB Schnabel (13:30 UTC) and US U-Mich sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; French OAT headlines remain the EUR driver