Higher lows off the gap low, pressing Friday's close/high.
The weekend gap down to the 1.1184 gap low was filled within the first hour of the Asia session. Price has reclaimed the Friday close at 1.1201 and set a session high at 1.1205, with higher lows off the gap low and the 1.1195 swing low. EUR backdrop stays heavy on French fiscal risk and a hawkish Fed, with no fresh weekend news, and thin early-Asia liquidity limits the read.
Support: 1.12015, 1.11948, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12052, 1.12084, 1.12158
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1205 session high and the 1.1208 38.2% fib of Friday's decline opens the 1.1216 breakdown level
Close back below the 1.1201 Friday close undercuts the gap fill
Loss of the 1.1195 swing low breaks the higher lows off the gap low
ECB's Vujčić at 10:00 UTC is the first scheduled EUR risk of the week
23:32 UTC
Recovering from a Friday sell-off; weekend gap now filled · RSI 54 · price 1.12027
Gap filled, testing the Friday NY high.
The Sunday open gapped about 17 pips below Friday's 1.1201 close. Early in the Asia session the gap has been filled, and price is now pressing the Friday NY high at 1.1204 after holding a pullback low at 1.1195. Friday's USD-driven slide from 1.1243 to the 1.1187 Friday low still frames the move, with the 38.2% fib at 1.1208 and the London lower high at 1.1214 overhead.
Support: 1.1201, 1.11948, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.12084, 1.12144
What it said to watch
A M15 close above the 1.1204 Friday NY high opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1208, then the 1.1214 lower high
Slipping back below the 1.1201 Friday close puts the 1.1195 pullback low and the 1.1187 Friday low back in focus
ECB's Vujčić (Mon 10:00 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) are the first event risk; Tuesday's HICP (f/c 3.3% y/y) is the bigger test
23:17 UTC
Flat after Friday sell-off, gap mostly filled · RSI 49 · price 1.11983
Weekend gap down, retraced to just under Friday close.
The Sunday open gapped about 17 pips below the 1.12015 friday close to a 1.11838 gap low. A single bar then retraced most of it, and price is now stalling just under the close in thin early-Asia trade. Friday's drop from 1.12425 to the 1.11873 friday low came as USD rebounded on hawkish Fed talk; that move is only about 20% retraced, and price is sitting on flat EMA20/50.
Support: 1.11948, 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12015, 1.12039
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12015 friday close completes the gap fill and brings the 1.12039 late-ny high into play
Failure back below the 1.11948 pullback low reopens the 1.11873 friday low and the 1.11838 gap low
A push through the 38.2% of Friday's drop near 1.1208 would shift the read from consolidation to recovery
ECB's Vujčić (Mon 10:00 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) are the next scheduled event risk
Lower highs from 1.1243 Friday high; Sunday gap mostly filled, price on EMA20.
EURUSD gapped about 17 pips lower at the Sunday open to the 1.1184 gap low. Early in the Asia session it has recovered most of that gap, stalling at 1.1199 just under the 1.12015 fri close, with the 1.1196 pullback low holding and price pinned on EMA20. Friday's USD-driven slide from 1.1243 bottomed at the 1.1187 friday low, and the late NY rebound capped at the 1.1204 ny high near the 23.6% retracement, with the fib 38.2 at 1.1208.
Support: 1.11956, 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12015, 1.12039, 1.12084
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12015 fri close completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1204 ny high and 1.1208 fib 38.2 in play
Loss of the 1.1196 pullback low reopens the 1.1187 friday low and the 1.1184 gap low
Thin Asia session liquidity; ECB's Vujčić Mon 10:00 UTC and Tue euro-area HICP could shift this read
Friday lower highs from 1.1243; Sunday gap below friday low nearly filled.
Sunday's open gapped down to the 1.1184 sunday low, briefly sweeping the 1.1187 friday low before a 12-pip bar near 01:00 broker time nearly closed the gap; price sits at 1.1199 in early Asia session, above the ema20 and just under the 1.1202 gap fill and EMA50. That bounce is shallow against Friday's 55-pip slide from 1.1243, which came as the USD rebounded on a hawkish Fed and firmer inflation expectations.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1187, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.1214
What it said to watch
A close above 1.1202 completes the gap fill and brings the 1.1214 swing high and 50% fib of the Friday slide into view
Loss of the 1.1187 friday low reopens the 1.1184 sunday low and resumes the Friday lower-high sequence
Thin Asia liquidity until London; ECB's Vujčić at Mon 10:00 UTC is the first scheduled risk ahead of Tue HICP and Wed US CPI
Weekend gap down mostly filled; price at Friday close.
Sunday's open gapped about 17 pips lower to a 1.1184 gap low with no fresh weekend news, but the 22:00 UTC bar recovered most of it. Early Asia session price is at 1.1199, just under the 1.1202 Friday close and EMA50, and sits at the 23.6% retrace of Friday's 1.1243–1.1187 decline from the Asia spike.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12015, 1.12039, 1.12158
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1202 friday close and 1.1204 swing high completes the gap fill and opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1208, then the 1.1216 london pivot
Failure back below the 1.1187 friday low exposes the 1.1184 gap low and resumes Friday's lower-low sequence
ECB's Vujčić Mon 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC are the next event risk for this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend on Friday, early-week gap lower · RSI 43 · price 1.11921
Weekend gap down, Friday low swept then bounce.
Sunday's open gapped 17 pips below Friday's 1.1202 close and dipped through the friday low at 1.1187 to a 1.1184 gap low before bouncing to 1.1192 in thin early Asia session trade. Friday's slide from 1.1243 came as the USD rebounded on hawkish Fed talk, and the gap fill at 1.1202, followed by the Friday ny high at 1.1204, sits overhead.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12015, 1.12039, 1.12084
What it said to watch
Re-break below the 1.1184 gap low extends Friday's lower-low chain
Close above 1.1202 fills the gap and puts the 1.1208 38.2 fib of Friday's drop in view
Thin Asia session liquidity; gap behaviour often unreliable until London open
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and EZ HICP Tue 06:00 UTC could shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, gapped lower at weekly open · RSI 32 · price 1.1187
Weekend gap down to Friday low, tight early-Asia range.
The weekly open gapped about 17 pips below Friday's close, putting price back on the 1.1187 friday low after Friday's NY-session USD rebound on firmer inflation expectations. The thin early Asia session is holding a 6-pip range between the 1.1184 sunday low and the 1.1190 session high. The gap fill at 1.1202 sits just under the 38.2% fib of Friday's drop.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1184, 1.1164
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1202
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1184 sunday low takes out the friday low and exposes the 1.1164 16m low
A recovery through the 1.1190 session high reopens the 1.1202 gap fill
ECB's Vujčić speaks Mon 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC; either could shift the read into London and NY
Eurozone HICP Tue 06:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR catalyst
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended by a weekend gap lower · RSI 33 · price 1.11869
Lower highs from 1.12425; Sunday open gapped below the Friday low.
The Sunday open gapped about 17 pips lower to 1.11842, below the Friday low at 1.11873. That extends Friday's decline from the 1.12425 Asian-session high, which came as the USD firmed on hawkish Fed talk and French fiscal pressure weighed on EUR. Thin early-Asia trade is pinned at the Friday low with the gap fill at 1.12015 unfilled overhead, while RSI(14) sits near 33 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11838, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.11873, 1.12015, 1.12039
What it said to watch
Holding below the friday low at 1.11873 keeps the gap-down extension intact
A break of the 1.11838 open low exposes the 1.1180 round number
A recovery into the 1.12015 gap fill and the 1.12039 ny high would neutralise the weekend gap; that area capped Friday's late bounce near the 23.6% fib of the friday decline
ECB's Vujčić (Mon 10:00 UTC) during the London session could shift the read; Tuesday's HICP is the larger risk
Lower high at 1.12039 after Friday's slide; Sunday gap printed a fresh low at 1.11838.
Friday's slide from the 1.12425 high ran into the friday low at 1.11873 as USD rebounded on hawkish Fed talk and firmer inflation expectations. The Friday bounce stalled at the 1.12039 swing high, inside the 23.6–38.2% zone of the selloff fib. The weekly open in thin early Asia session trade then gapped about 17 pips below the 1.12015 friday close to a 1.11838 gap low, and price is now pressing back toward the friday low.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11838
Resistance: 1.12015, 1.12039
What it said to watch
Acceptance back above the 1.12015 friday close fills the gap and neutralises the lower-low read
A move through the 1.12039 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the 38.2% selloff fib
Failure to hold the 1.11838 gap low extends the lower-low sequence
ECB's Vujčić Mon 10:00 UTC; thin Asia session liquidity can exaggerate moves until London open
Lower highs from 1.1243 into a 1.1187 low; late-NY higher low at 1.1196 under a 1.1204 cap.
The early-Europe push to the 1.1243 friday high reversed as the USD rebounded, and London/NY ground down to a 1.1187 friday low. The late-NY bounce printed a higher low at 1.1196 but met rejection three times at the 1.1204 late ny high, right at EMA50 and the 23.6% fib of the selloff, with RSI(14) flat near 53 into the weekly close.
Support: 1.11955, 1.11873
Resistance: 1.12039, 1.12158, 1.12425
What it said to watch
Sunday reopen gap away from 1.1196–1.1204 resets the late-NY range read
M15 close above the 1.1204 late ny high exposes the 1.1216 breakdown level
Loss of the 1.1196 higher low and rising support puts the 1.1187 friday low back in play
ECB's Vujčić Mon 10:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC could shift the read ahead of Tue HICP