21:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near window lows · RSI 52 · price 1.12015
Lower highs since 1.1410; lows holding 1.1161-1.1172.
Three weeks of lower highs from 1.1410 have taken EURUSD into a 16-month-low area, driven by French fiscal stress and a hawkish, oil-supported Fed. Since the 1.1161 range low the pair has carved a narrow base with a slight higher low at 1.1172. Rallies keep stalling, though: the latest lower high at 1.1243 sat on the 38.2% fib of the 1.1380-1.1161 leg and was rejected back toward the flat ema20, with price still below ema50. ATR(14) has eased to about 23 pips from 40+ during the late-September slide, a compression that points to a directional break forming between 1.1161 and 1.1276.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.1243 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence and open the 1.1276 swing high
- Failure to hold the 1.1172 higher low puts the 1.1161 range low and 16-month lows back in play
- Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) could shift ECB-hike pricing and this read
- US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) is the main USD-side catalyst for a break of the range
- Lagarde Wed and French budget/OAT spread headlines remain event risk for EUR