21:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 24 · price 1.12015
Lower highs and lower lows since 21 Aug high, six-session base above 1.1161.
EURUSD has been in a seven-week downtrend from the 1.1711 high on 21 Aug. Each weekly rebound has stalled at a lower high, and price sits below a falling EMA(50) on a fifth straight weekly loss. The 1 Oct break of the june low near 1.1325 sped up the slide on French fiscal stress and a hawkish Fed, and the past six sessions have compressed into a 1.1161–1.1285 base with RSI deep in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1325, 1.1371
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.1285 prior high and the descending trendline near 1.1265 would break the lower-high sequence
- A reclaim of the june low at 1.1325 and the fib 38.2 at 1.1371 would mark a deeper correction of the Aug–Oct decline
- Failure to hold the 1.1161 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1100 round number
- Tue euro-area HICP and Wed US CPI could materially shift this read