21:03 UTC
Downtrend paused, range contracting · RSI 51 · price 1.12015
Lower highs from Tuesday's peak vs higher lows since Wednesday's low; price compressing near EMA20/EMA50.
Tuesday's London-hours push to the 1.1276 week high fully reversed when Wednesday's London open drove a 110-pip slide to the 1.1165 week low, in line with the French fiscal stress behind EUR's fifth weekly loss. Since then Thursday and Friday printed higher lows, but Friday's European rally stalled at 1.1243, roughly a 70% retrace of the week's drop, and faded as USD rebounded through NY hours. The week closed at 1.1202, just under the EMA20 near 1.1204 with RSI(14) flat around 50. That leaves a contracting range between the lower-highs line and the higher-lows line.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1172, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
- Close below the 1.1187 friday low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.1172 thursday low back in focus
- Loss of the 1.1165 week low reopens the 1.1150-1.1164 16-month low zone
- Close above the 1.1243 friday high clears the lower-highs line and the fib 61.8% rejection area, exposing the 1.1276 week high
- Price holding under the ema20 near 1.1204 keeps the rebound capped
- Euro-area HICP Tue 06:00 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could break the compression either way