Lower highs/lower lows from 1.1654; bounce from 1.1161 printed a higher low at 1.1203 below the 1.1285 lower high.
French fiscal stress and dovish ECB repricing drove a three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654 to a 17-month low at 1.1161. Soft US payrolls then lifted price back into the fib 50% zone near 1.1270, with a higher low at 1.1203 and price reclaiming EMA20, but EMA20 is still below EMA50 and the 1.1285 lower high is intact. ATR(14) near 31 pips has cooled from the spike at the 17m low, leaving the move into resistance looking corrective so far.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1161, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1380 swing high
Rejection at the fib 50% 1.1270 area followed by a close below the 1.1203 higher low exposes the 17m low at 1.1161, with the 1.1100 round number beyond
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and DXY around 102.00
German Industrial Production Wed 06:00 UTC: a negative print after the -10.6% orders miss would add pressure on the bounce
Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows took EURUSD from 1.1654 to a 1.1161 swing low on French fiscal stress, before soft US payrolls and easing oil and yields pulled the dollar back. The rebound has reclaimed EMA20 near 1.1238 and is stalling at the 50% retracement of the 1.1380-1.1161 leg, just under the 1.1285 prior high. EMA20 stays below EMA50 near 1.1300, where the lower-high trendline from 1.1495 also sits, and ATR(14) near 34 pips is well above early-window levels, so ranges remain expanded.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 prior high would print the first higher high of the move and bring the 1.1300 trendline / EMA50 confluence into test
Rejection below 1.1285 keeps the bounce corrective inside the downtrend, with the 1.1200 psych level the first support
Failure to hold 1.1200 reopens the 1.1161 swing low, and a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Above 1.1300, the 1.1380 lower high is the next structural cap
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB meeting accounts Thu 11:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654; bounce testing the latest lower high.
Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows carried the pair from 1.1654 to the 17m low at 1.1161. EMA20 still sits below EMA50. Price has since reclaimed EMA20 and retraced to the 50% fib of the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1161 leg, with lower oil cushioning EUR, and is now pressing the 1.1285 lower high. Just above, the descending trendline and EMA50 converge near 1.1300 with the 61.8% fib. ATR(14) has expanded to about 33 pips from roughly 20 early in the window.
Support: 1.1238, 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 lower high and the 1.1300 trend/ema50 zone breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.1380 swing high
Rejection at the descending trendline near 1.1300 keeps the downtrend structure intact
Loss of ema20 near 1.1238 returns focus to 1.1200 psych and the 17m low at 1.1161
ECB speakers today, French spread headlines and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.12389
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; tight range above 1.1161 swing low.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows across the window, from 1.1654 down to a 17-month swing low at 1.1161. French fiscal stress and the German orders collapse drove the latest leg, with the dollar firm on record US yields. The rebound since then has stalled at the ema20 near 1.1244, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1380–1.1161 leg. ATR(14) is around 33 pips, elevated against the mid-window regime, while price coils between the 1.1200 round number and the ema20.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close above the ema20 / 38.2% fib at 1.1244 opens the 1.1285 lower high and the falling trendline
Break above the 1.1285 lower high would end the lower-high sequence; the 1.1380 prior high sits above it
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1161 swing low; a close below it extends the lower-low structure
EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC today and the FOMC Minutes on Wed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; bounce stalling at broken 1.1215 range low.
Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654, with each bounce capped below a lower-high trendline. The leg from the 1.1380 swing high extended to a 17-month low at 1.1161 on Monday as French and Spanish fiscal stress and firm US yields weighed on EUR. Price has since recovered to 1.1222, the 50% retracement of the 1.1285–1.1161 leg, and is retesting the broken 1.1215 range low from above. EMA20 remains below EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 30 pips, roughly double its early-window readings.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1285, 1.1380
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1215 range low would make Monday's drop a false break; slipping back below it reopens the 17m low at 1.1161.
An H4 close above 1.1250 psych and the 1.1285 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs; the lower-high trendline sits near 1.1307.
ECB's Cipollone and Elderson at 13:00 GMT today and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; bounce below 1.1285 lower high.
EURUSD has carved a clean three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654, capped by a descending trendline now near 1.1310, with EMA20 holding below EMA50 throughout. The leg accelerated on French fiscal-contagion spread widening to a 1.1161 cycle low, before a quick recovery back above the 1.1200 round number retraced more than half of that drop. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 31 pips from sub-20 earlier in the window, consistent with an extending trend rather than compression.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1161 cycle low confirms a fresh lower low and extends the downtrend
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number puts the 1.1161 cycle low back in focus
Close above the 1.1285 lower high, near the fib 61.8% of the 1.1380 swing high drop, would be the first break in lower-high structure
Trendline resistance near 1.1310 caps the channel; a break would challenge the 1.1380 swing high
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the key USD-side risk for the 1.1161 cycle low