21:02 UTC
Downtrend, post-NFP bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 1.12501
Lower highs since Wednesday, base forming 1.1215-1.1221.
Lower highs have stepped down from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak at the London-NY transition. Thursday's breakdown began in London and extended through the NY session to a week low at 1.1215, with French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. Friday's soft 29K NFP lifted price off a 1.1221 low to a 1.1285 nfp high, but the bounce met rejection just above the 38.2% fib of the Wed-Thu leg and faded back under EMA(20) near 1.1256. Price is consolidating above the 1.1248 post-NFP low, with RSI(14) mid-range at 46.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1311
What it said to watch
- An H1 close above the 1.1285 nfp high and the lower-high line would break the sequence of lower highs, with Thursday's 1.1311 lower high next
- Failure to hold the 1.1248 post-NFP low reopens the 1.1215 week low; a break there confirms a lower low toward the 1.1200 round number
- Weekend French budget headlines are a gap risk into Monday's open
- Monday's EZ PMIs and ECB speakers (07:45-09:00 UTC), then US ISM Services (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read