Lower highs from 1.1380; Friday range 1.1221–1.1285 above Thursday's low.
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 spike. Thursday's NY-session selloff, driven by French fiscal stress, printed a 1.1215 thu low near the 16-month low. Friday's weak NFP lifted price from the 1.1221 nfp low to a 1.1285 nfp high, which stalled just above the 38.2% fib of the week's drop and under the lower-highs line. Price has since faded back below the ema20 at 1.1256, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1285 nfp high and the lower-highs line weakens the downtrend read; the 1.1311 swing high is the next structural cap
Loss of the 1.1221 nfp low and 1.1215 thu low reopens the 1.1200 psych floor
Mon Oct 5 Eurozone Services/Composite PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Weekend French budget or bond-spread headlines could gap price away from Friday's range
Lower highs from 1.1380; twin lows 1.1215/1.1221 forming a base.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 week high. The dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, falling to a 1.1215 week low as French fiscal stress weighed on the euro. The 29K NFP miss lifted price from the 1.1221 nfp low to 1.1285, but that post-NFP high stalled just above the 38.2% retracement of the Wed–Thu decline, and price has slipped back to sit fractionally below ema20 near 1.1257 with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1257, 1.1285, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1215 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1200 psych level
Reclaim of 1.1285 post-NFP high and the lower-highs trendline shifts the read toward a deeper Wed–Thu decline retracement
Thursday's 1.1311 lower high is the last swing capping the decline; a break there would undo the lower-high sequence
ECB's Nagel ~19:35 UTC tonight and French budget headlines could materially shift this read before the weekly close
Monday's PMIs and 14:00 UTC ISM Services set the tone for the next test of 1.1215–1.1221
Lower highs since Wednesday; double bottom 1.1215/1.1221 with failed neckline break.
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak led into Thursday's NY-session selloff to a 1.1215 week low, the dominant leg of the week as French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Friday's soft 29K payrolls print sparked a rebound off the 1.1221 nfp low that broke the 1.1269 neckline of the double bottom. It stalled at the 1.1285 nfp high near the 38.2% retracement and the lower-highs line, and the slip back under the neckline turned the move into a false break. Price sits marginally above the ema20 near 1.1252 but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1252, 1.1221, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1269 neckline and the 1.1285 nfp high would revive the double bottom read and open 1.1311, Tuesday's low
Loss of the ema20 near 1.1252, then the 1.1221 nfp low, exposes the 1.1215 week low and 1.1200 psych
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC today, and Monday's euro PMIs and US ISM Services, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday intact; tentative base at 1.1215–1.1221.
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1380 peak framed a downtrend. The selloff started in Thursday's London session and accelerated into NY hours, reaching a week low at 1.1215 as French fiscal stress weighed on the euro. Friday's 29K NFP miss lifted the pair off the 1.1221 nfp low to the 1.1285 nfp high, forming a tentative double bottom, but the move stalled just above the 38.2% fib and has slipped back onto EMA(20) near 1.1256, back below the 1.1269 London high.
Support: 1.1256, 1.1221, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1285 nfp high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 1.1311 thu high
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.1256 puts the 1.1221 nfp low and 1.1215 week low back in focus
A break below 1.1215 voids the double bottom and resumes the lower-low sequence
Holding below the 1.1269 London high keeps the bounce a rejection at the 38.2% fib
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC today and Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; French budget headlines are the unscheduled risk
Lower highs all week; double bottom at week low broken higher.
The week's dominant move was the Wednesday–Thursday sell-off from 1.1380. The heaviest selling came in Thursday's NY session, down to the 1.1215 week low, as French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Friday's 29K NFP miss knocked the USD and lifted the pair from a 1.1221 higher low through the 1.1269 prior high, completing a small double bottom and clearing the lower-highs line; price now presses the EMA(50) and 38.2% retracement near 1.1278, just under the 1.1285 session high, with RSI(14) at 64.
Support: 1.12691, 1.1256, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12851, 1.1300, 1.13111
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1269 prior high undercuts the double bottom breakout
Failure at the 1.1285 session high keeps the rebound a correction inside the downtrend
Acceptance above the 1.1300 round number (50% fib) opens the path to the 1.1311 lower high
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 1.1256 keep the rebound structure intact
Loss of the 1.1215 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC and Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; double bottom at week low, neckline just cleared.
Selling has run the week. Wednesday's NY-session push failed at the 1.1380 wed high, and Thursday's NY hours drove the leg to the 1.1215 week low as French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Friday's 29K NFP miss produced a dip that held above Thursday's low, and the bounce cleared the 1.1269 prior high and the lower-high line from Wednesday. Price now sits at the 1.1275 session high, where EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib cluster near 1.1278. EMA(20) at 1.1257 has turned up beneath, and RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.1269, 1.1257, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1275, 1.1311, 1.1380
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.1278 (EMA50 / 38.2% fib) opens a test of the 1.1311 lower high from Thursday
An H1 close back below the 1.1269 prior high and ema20 at 1.1257 would undercut the double bottom read
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend
ECB's Nagel tonight (19:35 UTC), plus Monday's EZ PMIs and US ISM Services (f/c 55.7), could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 1.1388 top, with the heaviest selling in Thursday's London and NY sessions as French fiscal stress pushed the pair to a 1.1215 week low. The 29K NFP miss produced a rejection of the 1.1221 friday low and lifted price back above EMA(20) at 1.1253. This leaves a potential double bottom beneath the 1.1269 session high, with RSI(14) back near 50. EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib of Wednesday's 1.1380 high to the week low converge at 1.1278, just above the line of lower highs price is now pressing.
Support: 1.1253, 1.1221, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1278, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1269 session high confirms the double bottom and brings the ema50 / 38.2% fib confluence at 1.1278 into play
Failure to hold the 1.1221 friday low reopens the 1.1215 week low and extends the lower-low sequence
Thursday's 1.1311 lower high marks where the broader downtrend read would be invalidated
Nagel at 19:35 UTC tonight and Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.1380 peak, with price back below EMA(20).
The week's dominant leg ran from Wednesday's 1.1380 high to Thursday's 1.1215 week low, with the heaviest selling in London morning and again in the NY session as French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Friday's rebound faded at the 1.1269 friday high in early London, between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of that drop and under the lower-highs line, even after a hot headline HICP print. Price has slipped back below the ema20 near 1.1252 toward the friday low at 1.1227, with RSI(14) near 42. The across-the-board NFP miss has not yet shown up in a completed bar.
Support: 1.12269, 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1252, 1.12691, 1.13111
What it said to watch
NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) is landing now; an H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.1252 would put the lower-highs line back in play
H1 close above the friday high at 1.1269 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1278, then the lower high at 1.1311
Failure to hold the friday low at 1.1227 exposes the week low at 1.1215 and the 1.1200 round number
Factory Orders 14:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel 19:35 UTC; unscheduled French budget headlines remain a tail risk for this read
Lower highs from 1.1388 Monday; bounce off week low capped near 1.1269.
H1 has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1388 peak. The dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, when French fiscal stress drove the pair to a 1.1215 week low. Friday's London bounce stalled at the 1.1269 session high, where supply capped the move after the hot HICP drew no follow-through. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 near 1.1252 toward the 1.1228 intraday low, with RSI(14) in the low 40s and the recovery holding beneath the 23.6–38.2% zone of the week's drop.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1252, 1.1269, 1.1311
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT, roughly 90 minutes out, could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 1.1215 week low and the 1.1200 round number in focus
H1 close below the 1.1228 intraday low resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 1.1269 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 1.1311 prior high
ECB's Nagel at 19:35 UTC is a secondary risk for EUR into the close
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1388; Friday higher lows under 1.1269.
H1 has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1388 peak. Thursday's NY-session selloff carried price to the 1.1215 week low as French fiscal stress and a firm dollar weighed. Friday's rebound has built higher lows off that low but met rejection at 1.1269, the session high, short of the 38.2% retracement of the Wed–Thu leg; the hot HICP beat gave EUR no lift, and price now sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1254, 1.1269, 1.1300
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
An hourly close below the higher-lows line and the 1.1231 asia low would expose the 1.1215 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 1.1269 session high and the lower-highs line would invalidate the flag read and open the 1.1300 round number
Repeated hourly closes back above EMA20 near 1.1254 would mark the bounce gaining traction
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight flag off Thursday's week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY-open peak at 1.1380. Thursday's London and NY sessions drove the 165-pip Wednesday-Thursday leg to the 1.1215 week low as the ISM prices-paid beat and French fiscal stress kept the dollar firm. Friday's Asia-session drift formed a small flag that met rejection at the 1.1269 session high, short of the fib 38.2 at 1.1278, and price is back under the ema20 at 1.1256 with no sustained reaction to the hot HICP beat, while RSI(14) at 43 sits mid-range and the rising line off Thursday's low holds near the fri lows at 1.1245.
Support: 1.1245, 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1269, 1.1278
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read; ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC is a secondary risk
H1 close below the fri lows at 1.1245 breaks the rising line and flag, exposing the asian low at 1.1231 and the week low at 1.1215
Close back above the session high at 1.1269 and the fib 38.2 at 1.1278 would break the lower-high line and challenge the downtrend read
Lower highs from Monday; shallow higher-low flag off 1.1215.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs all week from Monday's 1.1388 peak. The dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, when French fiscal stress and a firm dollar drove the pair through 1.1300 to a 1.1215 yearly low. Friday's Asia and early London bounce has stepped up through higher lows to today's session high at 1.1266 and the pair now sits on EMA(20), just above the 23.6% fib of the Wed–Thu drop but below EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib at 1.1278, with RSI(14) only back to ~46, so the move reads as a shallow flag inside the downtrend.
Support: 1.1257, 1.1245, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1266, 1.1278, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1278 38.2% fib and the 1.1311 lower high would challenge the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.1245 higher low breaks flag support and puts the 1.1215 yearly low back in focus
Rejection at the 1.1266 session high with price slipping back under EMA(20) keeps the flag read intact
Eurozone flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; range break below 1.1300, Asian higher lows.
Lower highs have stacked up all week: 1.1390 Monday, 1.1380 Wednesday and a 1.1311 lower high Thursday. Thursday's NY session broke the Monday–Wednesday range and the broken 1.13 handle, printing a 1.1215 yearly low as French spread stress and a firm USD drove the move. The Asian rebound has since held higher lows along a rebound line and edged above the steep lower-highs line, reaching the 1.1262 asian high just past the 23.6% fib, with price back above EMA(20) (~1.1247), EMA(50) near 1.1290 overhead and RSI(14) recovered to the high 40s.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1262, 1.1300, 1.1311
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.1262 asian high opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1278 and the broken 1.13 level
Rejection at broken 1.13 or the 1.1311 lower high keeps the downtrend sequence intact
Loss of ema20 and the 1.1231 asian low, breaking the rebound line, exposes the 1.1215 yearly low
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1390 peak. Wednesday's spike to 1.1380 at the London-NY transition faded, and Thursday's slide broke the 1.1311–1.1380 range and the 1.1300 round number. The drop ran through London open and again into NY session, ending at a 1.1215 yearly low as French spread stress and a firm dollar weighed. The Asia session rebound off the asia low near 1.1231 has stalled at 1.1255, where EMA(20), the descending trendline and the 23.6% fib converge, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1255, 1.1278, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1255 trendline opens the fib 38.2 at 1.1278 and the 1.1300 round number
Failure at the asia low near 1.1231 exposes the 1.1215 yearly low again
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; small consolidation under EMA(20).
EURUSD has stepped lower all week from Monday's 1.1390 high. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike faded at a 1.1380 lower high, and Thursday's NY session drove the main leg to the 1.1215 yearly low as hot ISM prices paid lifted the USD. Asia and early London have produced a shallow bounce off the 1.1231 Asian low into 1.1255, where price is stalling at EMA(20) and the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop, with RSI(14) recovering only to ~42.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.1255, 1.1300, 1.13797
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1255 and EMA(20) opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1278 and the 1.1300 psych level
Failure back below the 1.1231 Asian low exposes the 1.1215 yearly low
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Only a move through the 1.1380 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the weekly downtrend sequence
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight 1.1231–1.1254 base under ema20.
Since early Monday near 1.1386, EURUSD has printed lower highs off the 1.1380 wed high, with Thursday's London and NY sessions driving a 165-pip slide through the 1.1300 former floor to the 1.1215 week low as USD extended on Fed-hike repricing, oil and French spread stress. Asia has since held a narrow range above the 1.1231 asia low, with RSI(14) recovering to ~43 and price pressing the ema20 near 1.1258. That level also sits at the 23.6% retracement of the slide and just under the lower-high trendline.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1300, 1.1380
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC: a hot print could test ema20 and the lower-high trendline near 1.1260
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print is the main squeeze risk against the downtrend
An H1 close back above the 1.1300 former floor would break the lower-high trendline and expose the 1.1380 wed high
Failure to hold the 1.1231 asia low reopens the 1.1215 week low and the 1.1200 psych level
Lower highs and lower lows all week; tight Asian range after Thursday's breakdown.
Lower highs have stepped down since Monday's 1.1390 high. Thursday's London and NY sessions broke the 1.1310–1.1380 range and the 1.1300 former floor as ISM prices paid jumped and DXY cleared 102.00, printing a week low at 1.1215 with RSI(14) near 24. Price has since held a tight 1.1231–1.1249 Asian range at the 23.6% retracement of Thursday's sell-off, below EMA(20) at 1.1257, with RSI(14) recovered to about 39.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.12572, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) is the first test of the asian high and asian low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a miss is the main squeeze risk against the downtrend
H1 close above 1.1260 (ema20 plus the 38.2% of Thursday's sell-off) puts the 1.1300 former floor back in view
H1 close above the lower-highs line near 1.1270 would end the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1231 exposes the week low at 1.1215 and the 1.1200 psych level
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia pause after Thursday's flush · RSI 33 · price 1.12362
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight Asian range above week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1380 spike. Thursday's London session broke the 1.1311–1.1380 Tue–Wed range and the 1.1300 psych handle, and the NY session extended the drop to a 1.1215 week low as French spread stress and oil-led USD strength drove the move. The Asia session has held a tight 1.1231–1.1249 range, with the asian high capping just short of the 23.6% retracement of the Wed–Thu leg, price still below the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1260 and RSI(14) recovering only into the low-to-mid 30s.
Support: 1.1231, 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.1260, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1260 ema20 would mark the first reclaim since Thursday's London break
Failure to hold the 1.1231 asian low reopens the 1.1215 week low and the 1.1200 round number
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs trendline from Wednesday's 1.1380 high stays intact unless price reclaims the 1.1300 psych level
Lower highs and lower lows; tight pause above week low.
EUR/USD has fallen every day from Monday's 1.1388 open, with Wednesday's spike to 1.1380 after the hot prelim CPI fading into a lower high. The dominant leg came Thursday: London broke the 1.1311-1.1380 range below the 1.1300 round number, and the NY session extended to a 1.1215 week low as oil, French spread stress and a firm dollar weighed. Since then price has held a tight 1.1233-1.1249 Asian range below EMA(20) near 1.1260, and RSI(14) has eased up from the mid-20s to about 34, a shallow rebound still under the 23.6% fib of the Wednesday-to-Thursday drop.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12489, 1.1260, 1.1300
What it said to watch
Friday 09:00 UTC Eurozone flash HICP and 12:30 UTC US NFP could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the ema20 near 1.1260 would be the first reclaim since Thursday's London session
A break of the asian low at 1.1233 and the week low at 1.1215 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 psych level
The lower highs trendline from Wednesday's 1.1380 sits near 1.1270, with the 1.1300 round number above as the breakdown level; a close above the asian high at 1.1249 is the first test
Lower highs all week; Mon–Wed range broken lower Thursday.
Lower highs ran from Monday's 1.1391 high through Wednesday's faded PCE spike to 1.1380. The London open on Thursday then broke the 1.1311–1.1380 range, and an ISM Prices Paid beat during NY hours extended the drop to a 1.1215 week low, with oil, French spread stress and a firm dollar weighing on EUR. Since then price has drifted higher off a 1.1232 rebound low into the Asian session, with RSI(14) recovering to ~38. Price remains below the EMA(20) at 1.1264, which sits alongside the 38.2% fib of Thursday's impulse.
Support: 1.1232, 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1264, 1.1300, 1.1311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1264 ema20 and the 38.2% fib of Thursday's impulse would be the first break of the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1232 rebound low reopens the 1.1215 week low and the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1300 psych level, Thursday's 1.1311 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows all week; tight base above the week low.
H1 has printed lower highs all week, at Monday's 1.1391, Wednesday's 1.1380 and Thursday's 1.1311 lower high, with each low undercutting the last. The dominant leg came through Thursday's London and NY sessions as DXY cleared 102.00 and French spreads widened. Hot US prices-paid data drove the drop to a 1.1215 week low. Price has since held a tight 1.1215–1.1246 base below EMA(20) near 1.1265, the bounce high capping late NY, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 40s from sub-30.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1265, 1.1311
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1246 bounce high and EMA(20) near 1.1265 brings the lower-high trendline and 38.2% fib (~1.1278) into play
Failure to hold the 1.1215 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1311 lower high would break this week's lower-high structure