EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 5 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, now flat · RSI 56 · price 1.12206
Higher lows since NY low, tight post-rollover range.
Monday's Asia flush on Spain snap-vote and French spread stress double-bottomed at 1.1161, and London and NY recovered to the 61.8% retrace of the drop near 1.1220, with NY printing higher lows at 1.11862 (ny low) and 1.11972 (swing low). Since the daily rollover, early Asia has compressed into a 7-pip box between the 1.12167 range low and the 1.12244 range high, with ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12167, 1.11972, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12244 range high clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 1.12556 asia high.
A break below the 1.12167 range low reopens the 1.11972 swing low and the higher-low trendline.
Failure to hold the 1.11862 ny low ends the higher-low sequence.
German Factory Orders at 06:00 GMT and EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT could break the overnight compression.
Higher lows off 1.1161, tight compression at 1.1220.
EUR/USD has reclaimed the 1.1200 handle after the Asia flush to 1.1161. That drop came on the Spain snap-vote and French spread stress, and the rebound since has printed higher lows at the 1.1186 NY low and the 1.1197 swing low. Price is now compressing just under the 1.1224 NY high in thin early-Asia trade, holding the 1.1217 pivot, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.1254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 NY high opens the path to the 1.1254 asia open
Loss of the 1.1217 pivot puts the 1.1197 swing low and the rising trendline in play
Break of the 1.1186 NY low, near the 61.8% fib, undoes the higher-low chain
German Factory Orders at 06:00 GMT and EZ Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT could break the compression
Higher lows off 1.1161; tight range below session high.
The Asia flush to 1.1161 on French and Spanish political stress printed a double bottom. The rebound has stacked higher lows at the 1.1186 NY low and the 1.1197 swing low, reaching a 1.1224 session high in late NY. Price is now compressing between the 1.1217 range low and 1.1224 in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 50 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.12167, 1.11972, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 range low exposes the 1.1197 swing low and the rising trendline near 1.1208
Acceptance above the 1.1224 session high opens the path to the 1.1256 weekly open
Loss of the 1.1186 NY low breaks the higher-low chain; the 38.2% fib of the rebound sits near 1.1200
German Factory Orders (06:00 GMT) and EZ Retail Sales (09:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Recovery off lows, stalling at 61.8% · RSI 54 · price 1.12199
Higher lows pressing a flat 1.1220–1.1224 cap.
The Asia drop to the 17-month low at 1.1161 came on French spread stress and a firm USD. The recovery has since stalled at 1.1220–1.1224, the 61.8% retrace of that drop and the session high, where repeated rejections ran through London, NY and the rollover. Rising lows at the 1.1186 NY low and the 1.1197 NY swing low keep price pinned against the cap in a quiet early Asia session, with ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12448
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 session high clears the 61.8% cap and exposes the 1.1245 asia shelf
Break of the 1.1197 ny swing low and the rising lows line reopens the 1.1186 ny low
Loss of 1.1186 brings the 1.1161 17-month low back into view
EZ Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) and the ECB Cipollone/Elderson and Fed Williams remarks (13:00–13:05 UTC) could shift the read
22:46 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, flat into close · RSI 56 · price 1.12201
Higher lows since the NY low at 1.1186, pressing session high 1.1224.
French spread stress drove EUR/USD to the 17m low at 1.1161 in Asia hours. Price has since retraced to the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the Asia high, with the NY low at 1.1186 and the 1.1197 swing low forming higher lows. Late NY trade is compressing just under the session high at 1.1224 with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1259
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1224 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens 1.1259 asia high
Loss of the 1.1197 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 1.1186 NY low back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity until Eurozone Factory Orders at 06:00 UTC; French fiscal headlines are an unscheduled risk
22:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at day high · RSI 66 · price 1.12214
Higher lows off the 1.1161 low, compressing under 1.1224 into Asia open.
French spread stress drove an Asian-session slide to the 1.1161 17-month low. EUR/USD has since rebuilt on a chain of higher lows back through the 1.12 pivot, and post-rollover it is holding the 1.1220 prior high just under the 1.1224 day high. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR(14) sits around 4 pips into the thin Asia open.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1210, 1.11972
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12608
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 day high opens the path toward the 1.1261 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.1220 prior high and 1.1210 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 1.1197 NY low puts the recovery from 1.1161 back in question
French fiscal headlines (unscheduled) and Tue Eurozone Retail Sales 09:00 UTC / ECB Cipollone-Elderson 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 1.12213
Higher lows since NY low, capped near 1.1220-1.1224.
Monday's Asia session flush to 1.1161 on French spread stress and broad USD demand was fully retraced in the recovery through London and NY. Higher lows at the 1.1186 NY low and the 1.1197 swing low track the rising trendline, and price is now pressing the 1.1224 session high in thin post-NY trade with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1258
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 session high opens the path to the 1.1258 weekly open
Break of the trendline and the 1.1197 swing low exposes the 1.1186 NY low and breaks the higher-low chain
Eurozone Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) and ECB/Fed speakers from 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read; French fiscal headlines remain unscheduled risk
22:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 1.1161 low · RSI 69 · price 1.12237
Higher-low chain since Asia, pressing the 1.1220 cap.
After the Asia-session double bottom at 1.1161, set on French spread stress and a broad USD bid, buyers built higher lows through London and NY at 1.1169, 1.1186 (ism low) and 1.1197 (ny swing low). Late NY edged through the 1.1220 prior cap to a 1.1224 session high, right at the 61.8% drop retrace of the 1.1259 drop origin to 1.1161 slide, with RSI(14) near 69 into thin rollover liquidity.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1259
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 1.1220 prior cap would mark the late push as a false break
M15 close below the 1.1197 ny swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the intraday HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.1224 session high and the 61.8% drop retrace opens the path toward the 1.1259 drop origin
Tue 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales and 13:00 UTC ECB Cipollone/Elderson, plus unscheduled French fiscal headlines, could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Recovering from the day low, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 1.12198
Higher lows since NY; stalling at the session high in thin post-close trade.
EUR/USD has climbed back from the 1.1161 Asia-session low, a 17-month low set as French spread stress hit the euro. NY printed higher lows at the 1.1186 ny low and the 1.1197 swing low, lifting price back above the 1.1200 round number. The late-NY drift has stalled at the 1.1224 session high, which sits right at the 61.8% fib of the Asian sell-off, on thin post-close bars.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11972, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12244, 1.12501, 1.12608
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 session high and 61.8% fib opens the 1.1250 weekly open, then the 1.1261 asian high
Break of the 1.1197 swing low cuts the higher-low trendline; a close below the 1.1186 ny low ends the recovery structure
Slipping back under the 1.1200 round number puts price back inside the NY chop
Eurozone Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) and any French fiscal headlines could reset this read
21:31 UTC
Recovery from day low, stalling below 1.1224 · RSI 62 · price 1.12192
Higher lows since Asia low, flat cap at 1.1220-1.1224.
EUR/USD has climbed off the 1.1161 day low set in the Asia session, a drop driven by French spread stress and broad USD demand. Since then it has printed higher lows at 1.1169, the 1.1186 NY low and the 1.1197 swing low. Price is now held under 1.1220-1.1224, which is the 61.8% fib of the Asia drop, after another rejection there late in NY; trade after the NY close is thin and drifting just below that cap.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1224 (fib 61.8 / NY high) clears the cap and opens the path to the 1.1261 asia high
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1197 swing low shifts focus to the 1.1186 ny low
Failure to hold the 1.1186 ny low reopens the 1.1161 day low
Eurozone Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) and unscheduled French fiscal headlines could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, grinding higher · RSI 69 · price 1.12213
Higher lows since NY open, pressing 1.1220 range top.
The Asia-session flush to 1.1161 on French-spread stress and USD demand has been fully retraced. London and NY printed higher lows at the 1.1186 ny low and the 1.1197 swing low. Late NY is now retesting the 1.1220 range top, which capped price three times, after tagging a 1.1224 session high into thin rollover trade.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 session high clears the 1.1220 range top
Loss of the 1.1197 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.1186 ny low
Close back below 1.1200, the 38.2% of the rebound fib, turns the push into a false break
Tue 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales and French fiscal headlines could reset this structure
21:01 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, momentum firm · RSI 71 · price 1.12226
Higher lows since 1.1161; late-NY break of 1.1220 range top.
The Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 17-month low on French spread stress has retraced to the 61.8% of the selloff. London and NY held a 1.1186–1.1220 range, with higher lows on the rising trendline from the 1.1186 NY low. The late-NY push through the 1.1220 range top came in thin trade, with RSI(14) at 71.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1197, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1259
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1220 range top marks a false break
Loss of the 1.1197 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1186 ny low back in play
Acceptance above the selloff 61.8% exposes the 1.1250 asia base and the 1.1259 weekly open
EZ Factory Orders 06:00 UTC and Retail Sales 09:00 UTC Tue, plus unscheduled French fiscal headlines, could shift this read
20:47 UTC
Rebounding from Asian low, pressing session high · RSI 70 · price 1.12198
Higher lows into a flat 1.1220 cap after an Asia-session flush.
EURUSD dropped about 95 pips in the Asia session to a 1.1161 asian low, a 17-month low, on French spread stress and a broad USD bid. It then recovered through London and has been capped at the 1.1220 session high, which has now been tested three times. NY printed higher lows at the 1.1186 ny low and the 1.1197 higher low, and price is back against the cap late in the session with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1259
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the triple-touch cap and opens the path to the 1.1259 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.1197 higher low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1186 ny low
Loss of 1.1186 puts the 1.1161 asian low back in view
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC, then ECB Cipollone/Elderson and Fed Williams Tue 13:00 UTC, could shift this read; unscheduled French fiscal headlines remain a risk
20:31 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, higher lows into flat top · RSI 66 · price 1.12172
Rising lows (1.1169, 1.1186, 1.1197) under a three-touch 1.1220 ceiling.
EUR/USD has rebuilt from the 1.1161 Asia low, set as French spread contagion and a broad USD bid hit the pair. Since then it has printed higher lows at 1.1186 (NY low) and 1.1197, while the 1.1220 session high has capped price at the London peak and twice in late NY. Price now sits just under that ceiling with RSI(14) near 66 and ranges compressing into the rollover.
Support: 1.1210, 1.11972, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the three-touch cap and exposes the 1.1231 breakdown area from the Asia selloff
Loss of the 1.1210 micro pivot, then the 1.1197 higher low, unwinds the rising-lows sequence; below the 1.1186 ny low the rebound structure fails
Unscheduled French fiscal or OAT-Bund headlines could move this pair at any time; Tue 06:00 UTC Factory Orders and 09:00 UTC Retail Sales follow
20:16 UTC
Recovering from Asia selloff, pinned under resistance · RSI 67 · price 1.12187
Higher lows through NY, flat cap at 1.1220.
Asia's drop to the 1.1161 17m low came as French spread stress spilled into EUR. Price has since retraced to the 1.1220 london high, which rejected the first test and capped again late NY near the 61.8% fib of the drop. NY printed rising lows from the 1.1186 ny low to the 1.1197 higher low, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.1254
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1220 london high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.1254 asia open
Break of the NY rising lows and the 1.1197 higher low puts the 1.1186 ny low back in play
Loss of 1.1186 exposes the 1.1161 17m low
Tue 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales and French spread headlines could reset the Asian range
Higher lows into a third test of the 1.1220 session high.
EUR/USD put in a double bottom at the 1.1161 17m low in early Asia, after French spread stress hit the euro. It has since built rising lows at 1.1186 and the 1.1197 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the 1.1161-1.1220 leg. Late in NY, price is pressing the 1.1220 session high for a third time with RSI(14) near 68, and the 1.1216 ny high now sits just below.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1197, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high opens the 1.1250 asia range area
Failure to hold the 1.1216 ny high, then the rising lows, puts the 1.1197 swing low back in play
Break below 1.1197 shifts focus back toward the 1.1161 17m low
Tue 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales and French spread headlines could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.12173
Higher lows at 1.1186 and 1.1197 under the 1.1220 session high.
French spread stress drove an Asian-session slide from the 1.1259 weekly open to 1.1161. London recovered to the 1.1220 session high, and NY dipped to the 1.1186 NY low after ISM before printing a higher low at the 1.1197 swing low (38.2% fib). Price is now retesting 1.1220 late in NY, above the 1.1200 psych level, with RSI(14) near 64 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11972, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12587
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the intraday range top, with the 1.1259 weekly open the next reference
A loss of the 1.1200 psych level and the 1.1197 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the fib 38.2%, exposing the 1.1186 NY low
Eurozone Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone/Elderson (Tue 13:00 UTC) could shift this read; French spread headlines are unscheduled risk
Higher-low chain off 1.1161, retesting session high.
After the Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 17m low on French spread contagion and broad USD demand, EURUSD has printed a higher-low chain (1.1169, 1.1186 ny low, 1.1197 swing low). Late NY, after London close, price is retesting the 1.1220 session high set in London, with RSI(14) near 64 and the 1.12 pivot just below.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12501
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high clears the double-tapped cap; the 1.1250 friday close is the next reference
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.1197 swing low (38.2% of the rally fib) stalls the recovery
Loss of the 1.1186 ny low, near the 61.8% rally fib, puts the 1.1161 17m low back in view
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC and unscheduled French fiscal headlines could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, ranging late NY · RSI 57 · price 1.12157
Higher lows inside a 1.1186–1.1220 range.
The Asia sell-off on French spread stress hit the 1.1161 17m low. London then recovered to a 1.1220 session high, and NY has held a 1.1186–1.1220 range, printing higher lows at the 1.1186 ny low and the 1.1197 swing low. Price is pressing the top of that range late in NY with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the range and exposes the 1.1250 weekend gap
Failure to hold the 1.1197 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 1.1186 ny low
Loss of 1.1186 shifts focus back to the 1.1161 17m low
Eurozone Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC and French fiscal headlines could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Recovering off day low, capped below 1.1220 · RSI 57 · price 1.12139
Rising lows into flat 1.1216–1.1220 cap since London.
EUR/USD has recovered from the 1.1161 day low, set in the Asia session as French spread stress hit, and the 1.1186 NY low held near the 61.8% of the recovery fib. Late NY, price is pressing the 1.1216 session high for a third time. Rising lows at 1.1186 and the 1.1197 swing low sit under a flat cap that runs up to the 1.1220 London high.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 London high breaks the range cap that has held since the London open
Break of the 1.1197 swing low and the rising-lows line exposes the 1.1186 NY low
Loss of 1.1186 reopens the path toward the 1.1161 day low
Tue 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales and 13:00–14:45 UTC ECB/Fed speakers could shift this read; French fiscal headlines are an unscheduled risk
18:46 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, capped below session high · RSI 54 · price 1.12127
Higher lows under flat 1.1216–1.1220 cap, late NY.
French fiscal stress drove an Asia session slide to the 1.1161 asia low. Price has since rebuilt through London and NY, with the NY low at 1.1186 holding near the 61.8% fib and a higher low at 1.1197. Supply has capped every push at 1.1216–1.1220, the London session high, and RSI(14) is neutral at 54 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12501
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the cap and opens the gap back toward the 1.1250 fri close
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1197 higher low puts the 1.1186 ny low back in play
Failure at 1.1186 reopens the 1.1161 asia low
German Factory Orders Tue 06:00 UTC and Eurozone Retail Sales 09:00 UTC; French spread headlines remain the main unscheduled risk
18:31 UTC
Recovery off the low, compressing below resistance · RSI 54 · price 1.12133
Higher lows at 1.1169, 1.1186 and 1.1197 under a flat 1.1216–1.1220 cap.
French fiscal stress drove an Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 monday low, where a double bottom formed. Price has since retraced about half the drop and is compressing late in the NY session beneath the 1.1216 ny high, with higher lows at the 1.1186 ny low and the 1.1197 swing low. The 1.1220 london high, which sits by the 61.8% fib of the Asian sell-off, has capped every push.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203, 1.12608
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 london high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 1.1261 asian high in view
Loss of the 1.1197 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1186 ny low
Fresh French spread or contagion headlines remain the main unscheduled risk to this read
German Factory Orders (Tue 06:00 UTC) and Eurozone Retail Sales (Tue 09:00 UTC) could reset the intraday structure
18:16 UTC
Sideways after Asia selloff · RSI 55 · price 1.12116
1.1186–1.1220 range since London, higher lows in NY.
French fiscal contagion drove the Asia slide to the 1.1161 Asian low. London capped the rebound at the 1.1220 London high, near the 61.8% of the Asia drop, and price has held a 1.1186–1.1220 range since. Late NY, after London close, price is back at the 1.1216 NY high, with a rising trendline joining the 1.1186 NY low and the 1.1197 swing low.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 London high breaks the range top and the 61.8% of the Asia drop
Loss of the 1.1197 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1186 NY low, then the 1.1161 Asian low
A second failure at the 1.1216 NY high keeps the range read intact
German Factory Orders at 06:00 UTC and unscheduled French fiscal headlines could shift this read
18:01 UTC
Range after Asia sell-off and London recovery · RSI 58 · price 1.12112
NY range 1.1186–1.1220, higher lows into lower highs.
French fiscal contagion drove a ~100-pip Asia-session slide from 1.1260 to a double bottom at the 1.1161 asia low. London recovered to the 1.1220 london high, and NY has ranged 1.1186–1.1220 since. Higher lows at the 1.1186 ny low and the 1.1197 swing low are pressing into the 1.1216 ny high. Price sits on the 50% retracement of the Asia drop, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 london high and the 61.8% retracement opens the 1.1250 fri close gap area
Loss of the 1.1197 swing low and the 1.1186 ny low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.1161 asia low
Tue 06:00 UTC Factory Orders and 09:00 UTC Retail Sales, plus unscheduled French spread headlines, could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Recovering off Asia low, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 1.12052
1.1186–1.1220 range since London, higher low late NY.
The Asia-session sell-off on French fiscal contagion hit the 1.1161 asia low before recovering. London and NY have since held a 1.1186–1.1220 range around the 1.1200 pivot, with the ny high at 1.1216 a lower high under the london high at 1.1220. The late ny low at 1.1197 held the 38.2% fib of the Asia low–London high leg, a higher low than the 1.1186 ny low.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203, 1.12596
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 london high breaks the range and exposes the 1.1260 asia high
Loss of the 1.1197 late ny low and the higher-lows line returns focus to the 1.1186 ny low near the 61.8% fib
Break below 1.1186 reopens the 1.1161 asia low
French spread or ECB TPI headlines remain the main unscheduled risk; Tue Factory Orders 06:00 UTC and Retail Sales 09:00 UTC follow
17:31 UTC
Post-flush consolidation below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 1.12047
London/NY range 1.1186–1.1220 after Asia low at 1.1161.
The Asia-session flush to the 1.1161 Asian low on French fiscal contagion has since given way to a 1.1186–1.1220 range. The London high at 1.1220 met rejection just under the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1261–1.1161 drop, and the NY high at 1.1216 also capped. Late in the NY session, price sits near the 50% level at 1.1205, holding a rising trendline off the 1.1186 NY low and the 1.1197 swing low, with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.11972, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203, 1.12608
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1197 swing low and the NY low at 1.1186 breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1161 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.1220 London high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the path toward the 1.1261 Asian high
Tue 06:00 UTC Factory Orders and 09:00 UTC Retail Sales, plus French fiscal headlines, could materially shift this read
1.1186–1.1220 range after Asia double low; lower highs.
Asia tagged the 1.1161 17-month low twice as French fiscal contagion hit EUR. London rebounded to a 1.1220 london high, and price has since ranged 1.1186–1.1220 with lower highs, the latest the 1.1216 ny high; NY's ISM-hour dip to the 1.1186 ny low held the 50–61.8% fib zone. Late NY sits on the 1.12 pivot, below EMA20/EMA50, RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 ny low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1161 asia low
Close above the 1.1220 london high clears the lower-highs trendline
Tue 06:00/09:00 UTC EUR Factory Orders and Retail Sales; French spread headlines remain the main unscheduled risk
17:01 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, stalled into range · RSI 54 · price 1.12026
Range 1.1186–1.1220 below the 61.8% fib of the Asian sell-off.
The Asian session sell-off on French fiscal contagion ran from 1.1260 to a double bottom at the 1.1161 Asian low, and London recovered to a 1.1220 high, just shy of the 61.8% fib, where price was rejected. Since then price has held a 1.1186–1.1220 range. Late NY, after London close, it sits at the 1.1200 round number below the 1.1216 NY high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 ny low reopens the 1.1161 asian low
Close above the 1.1220 london high and 61.8% fib breaks the range top; the 1.1216 ny high is the first cap
Loss of the 1.1200 round number shifts trade toward the range floor
Overnight French fiscal headlines plus Tue 06:00 UTC Factory Orders and 09:00 UTC Retail Sales could reset the range
16:47 UTC
Range after Asia selloff, lower highs · RSI 51 · price 1.12034
1.1186–1.1220 range since London; lower highs, price mid-range.
The Asia-session slide on French spread contagion found a floor at the 1.1161 asia low, tested twice, before London recovered to the 1.1220 london high. Since then price has rotated inside 1.1186–1.1220, and the post-ISM bounce was rejected at the 1.1216 ny high. After London close it sits mid-range at 1.1203, just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 london high breaks the range top and the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1196 swing low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.1186 ny low near the 50–61.8% zone
Failure to hold the 1.1186 ny low reopens the 1.1161 asia low
French OAT/BTP spread headlines in the Asian session could override the range; EZ Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC
16:32 UTC
Range after Asia selloff, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.12029
1.1186–1.1220 range since London; higher lows off the 1.1161 Asia low, highs capped twice near 1.1220.
French spread contagion drove an Asia-session sweep to the 1.1161 day low. Since London, EUR/USD has ranged with a rising trendline under it. The post-ISM NY low at 1.1186 held near the 61.8% of the London leg, and the 1.1216 bounce was rejected just under the 1.1220 London high. After London close price is back on the 1.1200 pivot, with RSI(14) near 48 and EMAs flat around 1.1204.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.1225
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1186 ny low breaks the range floor and the rising trendline, exposing the 1.1161 day low
Acceptance above the 1.1220 london high opens the 1.1250 asia shelf, where Monday's pre-selloff trade sat
OAT-Bund / BTP spread headlines can override the range; EZ Retail Sales Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
16:17 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, now range-bound · RSI 48 · price 1.12055
Range 1.1186–1.1220 above 1.1161 double bottom.
Asia sold off from 1.1260 to a 1.1161 double bottom on French spread contagion. London then recovered to the 1.1220 session high, a rejection between the 50% and 61.8% fib of that drop. NY's post-ISM dip to the 1.1186 NY low was bought into a lower high at 1.1216 (NY high), and price now sits on the 1.1200 psych pivot with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the range top and the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 1.1186 NY low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1161 session low
Repeated failure at the 1.1216 NY high keeps price pinned around the 1.1200 psych pivot into Asia
Tue 09:00 UTC EZ Retail Sales and French/Italian spread headlines could reset this range
16:01 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, ranging mid-session · RSI 53 · price 1.12092
Higher lows since 1.1161 double low; capped at 1.1220 since London.
French debt stress drove an Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 day low, tested twice before buyers stepped in. Since London open price has held a 1.1186–1.1220 range; the NY low at 1.1186 held near the 61.8% retrace, and an in-line ISM barely registered, leaving price at 1.1209 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the range top and brings the 1.1261 asia high back into view
Loss of the 1.1186 ny low and the rising trendline from the 1.1169 swing low exposes the 1.1161 day low
Tue 06:00 UTC German Factory Orders and 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales; French spread headlines remain the dominant unscheduled risk
15:47 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, now ranging · RSI 50 · price 1.12081
1.1186–1.1220 range since London; double bottom at 1.1161 below.
French spread stress drove an Asian-session slide that tested the 1.1161 Asian low twice before London recovered to a 1.1220 London high. Price has ranged 1.1186–1.1220 since. The ISM-hour dip found demand at the 1.1186 NY low, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace, and NY has rebounded to the 1.1216 NY high, now just above the 1.1200 pivot with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 London high breaks the range top, which has capped two lower highs
Loss of the 1.1200 pivot then the 1.1186 NY low would reopen the 1.1161 Asian low
After London close, liquidity thins and the range may compress
Tue 06:00 UTC German Factory Orders and 09:00 UTC Retail Sales; French spread headlines remain the dominant unscheduled risk
15:32 UTC
Rebounding inside a post-selloff range · RSI 56 · price 1.12112
1.1186–1.1220 range after Asia double bottom at 1.1161.
French debt stress drove an Asia-session slide to 1.1161 near the 17-month low. That asia low was tested twice before London rebuilt to the 1.1220 session high, and price has since ranged 1.1186–1.1220. The ny low at 1.1186 held between the 50% and 61.8% fib after the in-line ISM print, and price is back above the 1.1200 round number, pressing the range top with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12501
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1220 session high breaks the range top; 1.1250 friday close is the next reference
Slip back under the 1.1200 round number returns price to mid-range
Loss of the 1.1186 ny low and the 61.8% fib re-exposes the 1.1161 asia low
Unscheduled French fiscal or OAT-Bund spread headlines can override the intraday range
15:17 UTC
Rebounding from Asia sell-off, stalling under 1.1220 · RSI 57 · price 1.12112
1.1186–1.1220 range on rising lows off 1.1161.
French debt stress drove an Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 Asia low. Price has since rebounded back through the 1.1200 round number. The post-ISM dip to the 1.1186 NY low briefly undercut the London range. It held just above the 61.8% rebound fib and on rising support, and price now sits just under the 1.1220 London high with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12501
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 London high breaks the range top and opens the 1.1250 Friday close
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1186 NY low breaks rising support and reopens the 1.1161 Asia low
Unscheduled French fiscal/spread headlines could materially shift this read; no scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h
15:01 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, ranging under 1.1220 · RSI 55 · price 1.12093
1.1186–1.1220 range since London open, rising trendline intact.
French spread stress drove EUR into a 1.1161 Asian low before a recovery into a 1.1186–1.1220 range through London. Mid-NY, the ny low at 1.1186 drew a rejection on the rising trendline and between the 50% and 61.8% fib after the in-line ISM, and price is back above the 1.12 pivot.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12133, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1213 swing high and 1.1220 london high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.1186 ny low and rising trendline reopens the 1.1161 asian low
Slip back below the 1.12 pivot returns price to the middle of the range
French/Italian spread headlines remain the main swing factor into London close
14:47 UTC
Post-selloff retracement, lower highs since London · RSI 43 · price 1.11989
Lower highs from 1.1220, NY probe to 1.1186 reclaimed.
French debt contagion drove an Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 asia low. London retraced to a 1.1220 london high, stalling just under the 61.8% fib, and has printed lower highs along a descending trendline since. NY dipped to a 1.1186 ny low around the in-line ISM Services (prices paid 74), and price is now back at the 1.1200 round number, which coincides with the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.11862, 1.11689, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12133, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1213 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.1220 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1186 ny low exposes the 1.1169 london dip and the 1.1161 asia low
Fresh OAT-Bund or BTP spread widening during NY hours could revive the Asia-session selling
Repeated rejection at the 1.1200 round number keeps the lower-high sequence intact
14:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from london high, stalling · RSI 45 · price 1.11932
Lower highs since 09:30 UTC; 1.1198–1.1213 range broken lower in early NY.
Asia sold off on French spread contagion to a 1.1161 17m low. London rallied to a 1.1220 london high, then printed lower highs at 1.1217 and 1.1213. Early NY broke the 1.1198–1.1213 range to a 1.1186 ny low near the 50% fib of that rally, and price is now consolidating under the 1.1200 pivot, with the ISM bar moving only about 10 pips.
Support: 1.11862, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12133, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 pivot negates the range break; the 1.1213 lower high and trendline sit above
Failure to hold the 1.1186 ny low exposes the 1.1161 17m low
A close above the 1.1220 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
ISM Services reaction still developing; French and Italian spread headlines remain the primary EUR driver
14:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after London rally, below both EMAs · RSI 43 · price 1.11915
Lower highs since 09:30 UTC; London range floor broken at 13:30 UTC.
The Asia selloff to the 1.1161 asia low, the 17-month low tied to French debt stress, was retraced in London to a 1.1220 session high. Since then the London-NY transition has printed lower highs at 1.1217 and 1.1213 and broken the 1.1196–1.1200 range floor at 13:30 UTC. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of the Asia-low rally, and the 14:00 UTC bar around the ISM release retested the range floor from below and was capped under 1.1197.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1213, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1200 range floor negates the range break
Loss of the 1.1187 session low exposes the 1.1169 swing low and the 1.1161 asia low
Close above the lower highs trendline near 1.1213 reopens the 1.1220 session high
ISM Services print and its Prices Paid component could materially shift this read during NY hours
Fresh OAT-Bund or BTP spread widening headlines are the main EUR driver
14:01 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, lower highs into NY · RSI 41 · price 1.11928
Lower highs from the 1.1220 London high; 1.1196-1.1200 floor broken in NY.
The Asia-session slide to the 1.1161 17m low on French spread stress recovered to a 1.1220 London high. NY has since printed lower highs at 1.1217 and 1.1213 and broken below the 1.1200 round number. Price is holding the 50% fib near 1.1191 just above the 1.1187 session low, with RSI(14) at about 41 and ATR near 9.5 pips as ISM Services lands.
Support: 1.11872, 1.11689, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12133, 1.12203
What it said to watch
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low exposes the 1.1169 swing low, then the 1.1161 17m low
A break above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1213 lower high reopens the 1.1220 london high
London range 1.1196–1.1220 broken lower at NY open; lower highs since 09:30 UTC.
French spread stress drove an Asia-session leg down to the 1.1161 17m low before London rebounded to a 1.1220 high, with the London range holding 1.1196–1.1220 under the 1.1200 handle. The 13:30 UTC bar broke the range low, and price now sits near the 50% retrace of the rebound fib into the US PMI and ISM releases. RSI(14) near 38 leaves room before oversold.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1196 range low negates the range break
Failure at the 1.1169 swing low exposes the 1.1161 17m low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Supply capping at the 1.1220 london high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
13:32 UTC
Recovering off Asia low, now stalling · RSI 45 · price 1.12004
Post-rebound consolidation, lower highs above 1.1196 range low.
French spread stress drove an Asia session selloff into a 1.1161 double bottom at the Asia low, before London rebounded to a 1.1220 session high. Since 09:30 UTC price has printed lower highs and is compressing into the 1.1196 range low, close to the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 ahead of NY open.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1220, 1.1259
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1196 range low exposes the 1.1169 pre-London low and the 1.1161 Asia low
An M15 close above the lower-highs line near 1.1213 and the 1.1220 session high breaks the consolidation, with 1.1259 at the Asia open next
13:16 UTC
Range after Asia selloff, early NY · RSI 48 · price 1.1204
1.1196–1.1220 range, lower highs since London.
Asia dropped about 100 pips from the 1.1261 asia high on French spread stress, putting in a double bottom at the 1.1161 asia low before London retraced to the 1.1220 london high, just under the 61.8% fib. Since then price has held a 1.1196–1.1220 range with lower highs near 1.1213, and sits at 1.1204 in early NY with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1220, 1.1261
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, with S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC, could break the range in either direction
M15 close below the 1.1196 range low exposes the 1.1169 swing low and the 1.1161 asia low
Close above the lower highs line near 1.1213 and the 1.1220 london high reopens the 61.8% fib area toward 1.1225
13:01 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, now coiling under 1.1220 · RSI 55 · price 1.12107
Lower highs vs rising lows below session high, pennant into NY.
Asia session dumped to the 1.1161 asia low, near the 17-month low on French spread stress, and held it twice before London rebuilt to a 1.1220 session high. Since then a pennant has formed, with a lower high at 1.1217 and another at 1.1213 against rising lows from the 1.1196 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 heading into the NY open.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1220
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) in the first hour of NY could resolve the pennant
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high breaks the pennant and confirms the 1.1200 pivot as reclaimed
Loss of the 1.1196 swing low and 38.2% retrace exposes the 1.1169 higher low, then the 1.1161 asia low
A close back above the 1.1213 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Higher low off 1.1161 double bottom; compressing under lower highs.
The Asia-session flush on French spread stress double-tapped the 17-month low at 1.1161 and reversed. London built a higher low at the 1.1169 london low and lifted price to a 1.1220 session high. Since then, price has stalled into a 1.1196–1.1220 range with lower highs into the London-NY transition, and the range floor is holding at the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high clears the lower-highs line and opens the path to the 1.1250 asia shelf
Loss of the 1.1196 range floor / 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1169 london low
Break of the 1.1161 17-month low invalidates the double bottom
12:32 UTC
Recovery off lows, stalling in range · RSI 55 · price 1.12097
1.1196–1.1220 range above a 1.1161 double bottom.
French spread stress drove an Asia-session slide from 1.1260 to a 1.1161 double bottom, the 17m low. London retraced to its 1.1220 high, just under the 61.8% fib, and price has since held a 1.1197–1.1220 range into the NY open, sitting near the 50% level.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could break the range either way
M15 close above the 1.1220 london high and 61.8% fib opens the 1.1250 breakdown zone
Loss of the 1.1197 range floor exposes the 1.1169 higher low and the 1.1161 17m low
12:16 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asia low, stalling near 1.1200 · RSI 44 · price 1.12021
Double bottom at 1.1161, consolidation 1.1196–1.1220 with lower highs.
Asia sold off into a 1.1161 double bottom as French spread stress hit the euro. London lifted price to a 1.1220 London high before stalling. Into the London-NY transition, price is pinned at 1.1200, between the 1.1196 London low (near the 38.2% of the recovery fib) and a 1.1217 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 1.11959, 1.11689, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12166, 1.12203
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1196 london low breaks the 38.2% recovery fib and exposes the 1.1169 higher low
Close above the 1.1220 london high clears the lower-high sequence and ends the consolidation read
Loss of 1.1169 puts the 1.1161 double bottom back in play
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could reset the range; French spread headlines remain unscheduled risk
French fiscal stress drove an Asian-session slide from 1.1261 to a double bottom at the 1.1161 asian low. London retraced to the 1.1220 london high, just shy of the 61.8% fib, where the move met rejection. Price is now compressing around 1.1200 psych, between the 1.1220 cap and the rising lows line off the London low. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 into the London-NY transition, with price holding the 1.1196 swing low and pinned between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1196 swing low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1169 london low and 1.1161 asian low
M15 close above the 1.1220 london high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path to the 1.1250 friday close
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read; French spread headlines remain the unscheduled risk
11:46 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 1.12045
London stays inside the Asian range, higher lows above 1.1161.
Asia sold off about 100 pips from 1.1259 to a 1.1161 double bottom as French spread stress hit the euro. London recovered to a 1.1220 london high, and price is now retesting 1.1200 near the 38.2 fib at 1.1196 with rising support underneath. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 late in the London session.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
US S&P PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) around the NY open could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 38.2 fib at 1.1196 and the rising support line exposes the 1.1169 higher low
Failure to hold the 1.1161 double btm would confirm a lower low on the session
Close above the 1.1220 london high opens the path toward the 1.1250 friday close
French OAT/BTP spread headlines remain the main unscheduled risk
11:31 UTC
Rebound off Asian low, higher lows intact · RSI 57 · price 1.12139
Double bottom at 1.1161, London higher low at 1.1196, retesting session high.
The French bond selloff drove an Asia-session flush to a 1.1161 session low, which held twice before London lifted price to a 1.1220 session high. The 11:00 UTC pullback found demand at a 1.1196 higher low, about a 41% retrace of the rebound, and the last bar is pressing back toward 1.1220 with RSI(14) mid-range near 57.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 session high opens the gap-fill path toward the 1.1250 friday close
Loss of the 1.1196 higher low breaks the rising support line; below the 1.1169 swing low the double bottom at the 1.1161 session low comes back into play
US S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, early in NY session, could materially shift this read
French OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the dominant EUR driver intraday
11:16 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, now pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.11976
Higher lows off 1.1161 double bottom; London high 1.1220 capped, testing 1.1195 swing low.
French fiscal stress drove an Asia session flush to a double btm at 1.1161, and the London session built higher lows up to a 1.1220 london high before rejection. Price has slipped back under the 1.1200 psych level and both EMAs, sitting on the 38.2% fib and the 1.1195 swing low with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1195 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1169 higher low and the 1.1161 double btm
Reclaiming 1.1200 psych and a close above the 1.1220 london high reopens the 1.1250 fri close gap area
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, with S&P PMI at 13:45, could materially shift this read
French spread headlines remain the main EUR driver through the NY session
11:01 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling at 1.1200 · RSI 47 · price 1.12005
Asia double bottom, London higher low, session-high rejection now retesting breakout.
French fiscal stress drove an Asia selloff to the 1.1161 asia low, where a double bottom formed. London then lifted price through 1.1200 to a 1.1220 session high, rejected at 09:30 UTC. Price is now retesting the 1.1195 breakout area at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price slipping under EMA20/50.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 1.1195 turns the breakout retest into a failed break and exposes the 61.8% fib and rising line near 1.1184, then the 1.1169 london low.
Loss of the 1.1161 asia low negates the double bottom.
A reclaim of the 1.1220 session high reopens the 1.1250 fri close.
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read; a soft print near 54 would hit an overbought USD.
Widening OAT-Bund spreads remain the main EUR driver into NY.
Higher lows off the 1.1161 double bottom, capped below the 1.1220 London high.
French fiscal stress drove the Asia-session drop to a double bottom at 1.1161. The London rally reclaimed 1.1200 but was rejected at the 1.1220 London high, and price is now holding the round number mid-London with RSI(14) neutral near 51. Rising lows from the 1.1169 higher low are intact, and the Friday close at 1.1250 is the next overhead reference.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number and the rising lows line exposes the 1.1169 higher low and the 1.1161 double bottom
Close above the 1.1220 London high opens the path toward the 1.1250 Friday close
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Escrivá remarks and OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the primary EUR driver into NY
10:32 UTC
Recovery off Asian low, stalling below 1.1220 · RSI 58 · price 1.12055
HH/HL chain off 1.1161 double bottom; London range 1.1200–1.1220.
French fiscal stress drove EUR through Asia to a 1.1161 session low, tested twice, before a 1.1169 higher low and a London reclaim of 1.1200 printed HH/HLs. Rejection at the 1.1220 London high has left price on the 1.1200 round number, just above EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number and the HL trendline exposes the 50% fib near 1.1191 and the 1.1169 higher low
Close above the 1.1220 London high opens the path toward the 1.1250 Friday close
Loss of the 1.1161 session low (17-month low) confirms a lower-low
ECB's Escrivá at 10:40 UTC; any fragmentation-backstop language could shift the spread-driven tone
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Rebound from Asia low, stalling below 1.1220 · RSI 56 · price 1.12031
Double bottom at 1.1161, higher low 1.1169, London high 1.1220 rejected, retesting 1.1200.
French fiscal stress drove an Asia-session drop to a double btm at 1.1161, then a higher low at 1.1169 fed a London rebound that was rejected at the 1.1220 london high. Price is now retesting the 1.1200 psych level just above EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56 and the 38.2% rebound fib near 1.1198 sitting directly under it.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11689, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12501
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1200 psych and the rebound fib 38.2% (~1.1198) exposes the 1.1169 higher low
Close above 1.1220 london high reopens the gap toward 1.1250 friday close
Loss of the 1.1161 double btm would mark a fresh session low
ECB's Escrivá at 10:40 UTC and US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Asia selloff, London recovery stalling · RSI 57 · price 1.12043
Double bottom at 1.1161, higher lows, rejected at session high.
French fiscal stress dragged EURUSD from the 1.1261 asian high to a double bottom at the 1.1161 asia low. London has built a higher low at 1.1169 and lifted to a 1.1220 session high. The 09:30 UTC bar printed a rejection there, back under the ema50 at 1.1212, and price now sits just above EMA20 near 1.1203. The 38.2% fib of the recovery (1.1198) overlaps the 1.1195 pullback low.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1220, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1220 session high reopens the rally leg toward the 1.1261 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1195 pullback low / 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1169 higher low
A break below the 1.1161 asia low voids the double bottom and marks a fresh 17-month low
ECB's Escrivá at 10:40 UTC; fragmentation or backstop language would shift the read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially move this pair
Higher-low chain off Asian double bottom, pressing 1.1220 cluster.
The Asia-session washout on French spread stress double-bottomed at the 1.1161 Asian low, and London has since built higher lows off the 1.1184 London low along a rising trendline. Price is now retesting the 1.1220 cluster (session high, Friday low and the 61.8% fib of the drop from 1.1261), with RSI(14) near 66 and bar ranges compressing just above the 1.1200 psych level.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1259
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1200 psych and the London trendline turns the bounce into a range
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.1222 opens the path toward the 1.1259 Sunday open
Failure to hold the 1.1184 London low exposes the 1.1161 Asian low
ECB's Escrivá at 10:40 UTC and US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the dominant driver
09:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.1217
Double bottom at 1.1161, HL chain through 1.1200, testing friday low.
The Asia-session selloff on French fiscal stress printed a double btm at 1.1161, and London has since built a higher low at 1.1169 and pushed back through the 1.1200 round number. Price at 1.1217 is testing the friday low at 1.1223, which coincides with the 61.8% fib of the 1.1261–1.1161 drop. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is about 10 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.1259
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1223 friday low opens the path to the 1.1259 weekly open
Slip back below the 1.1200 round number turns the breakout into a false break; loss of the 1.1169 higher low exposes the 1.1161 double btm
Eurozone PPI and Schnabel (09:00 UTC) now, then US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Rebound from Asia lows inside wider intraday decline · RSI 51 · price 1.12084
Higher lows off 1.1161 double bottom, testing breakdown zone.
French spread stress drove a ~100-pip Asia-session slide from the 1.1261 Asia high to a 1.1161 double bottom. The rebound has since built higher lows along rising support and reclaimed the 1.1200 round number in the first hour of London. Price is now capped at the 50% fib near 1.1211, where EMA50 also sits, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11689, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.12227, 1.12608
What it said to watch
Schnabel and Eurozone PPI at 09:00 UTC: ECB backstop language or further OAT/BTP spread widening could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1223 opens the path back toward the 1.1261 Asia high
A break of rising support and the 1.1200 round number would put the 1.1169 higher low and the 1.1161 double bottom back in focus
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1161 double bottom, capped at 1.1207.
French spread stress drove a near-100-pip Asia-session sell-off to a 1.1161 session low, printed twice as a double bottom. London has retraced to the broken 1.1200 handle on a rising lows chain. The rebound is stalling at the 1.1207 london high, just under the 50% fib of the Asia drop and the EMA50 near 1.1211.
Support: 1.1199, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1211, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 50% fib puts the 1.1221 friday low in play
A break of the 1.1199 micro hl ends the rising lows chain and exposes the 1.1169 london low
Schnabel at 09:00 UTC and Escrivá at 10:40 UTC: any ECB backstop language could shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled volatility risk for the 1.1161 session low
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off Asia lows · RSI 52 · price 1.12057
Higher lows since Asia double bottom; retest of the broken 1.1200 area from below.
French fiscal stress drove a 100-pip Asia session sell-off through 1.1200, which double-bottomed at the 1.1161 asia low. Since London open, price has printed rising lows from the 1.1169 london low and is now retesting the broken 1.1200 area. It is capped so far by the 1.1207 session high and ema50 near 1.1210, which sit in the 38.2–50% zone of the Asia sell-off fib.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1210, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1207 session high and ema50 opens the path to the 1.1250 friday close
Loss of the 1.1195 higher low breaks the rising-lows line; 1.1169 london low then 1.1161 asia low come back into view
Sentix 08:30 UTC, PPI plus ECB's Schnabel 09:00 UTC; French budget headlines are an unscheduled risk
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asian sell-off to 1.1161, higher low at London open, capped near 1.1200.
Asian session broke 1.1200 on French fiscal stress, falling from 1.1260 to a double bottom at the 1.1161 asian low. The London open dip held a higher low at 1.1169 (london low), but the rebound stalled at the 1.1207 session high, right at the 38.2% retrace, and is slipping back below the 1.1200 psych pivot.
Support: 1.11689, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.12074, 1.12206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1207 session high opens a test of the 1.1221 friday low
Failure to hold the 1.1169 london low puts the 1.1161 asian low back in play
ECB Lane at 08:00 UTC and French spread headlines could shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
Higher low at 1.1169 after 1.1161 double low; retesting 1.1200 from below.
French fiscal-stress selling drove an Asia drop from the 1.1261 Sunday high to a 1.1161 session low, printed twice. Early London has lifted price off a 1.1169 higher low back to the 1.1200 round number, with the move now pressing into the ema50/fib50 confluence near 1.1211.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1261
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1200 round number returns price to the 1.1161–1.1198 post-drop range
Acceptance above the ema50/fib50 at 1.1211 opens the 61.8% of the Asia drop near 1.1223; the 1.1261 Sunday high sits above that
Loss of the 1.1169 higher low breaks the rising support line and puts the 1.1161 session low back in play
HCOB PMIs at 07:55/08:00 and ECB's Lane at 08:00 land within the next bar or two and could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD-side risk
Double bottom at 1.1161, higher low at 1.1169, rebound capped at 1.1198.
French fiscal stress drove an Asia-session drop from 1.1261 through 1.1200 to a 1.1161 double bottom (session low). The early-London rebound met rejection at the 1.1198 session high, just under the 38.2% fib and the broken 1.1200. A higher low at 1.1169 has held since, with price pinned just below EMA20.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1198 session high and 1.1200 opens the 50% fib at 1.1211
Break of the 1.1169 higher low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.1161 session low
Eurozone Services/Composite PMIs (07:55/08:00 UTC) and ECB Nagel/Lane remarks within the hour could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk
Double bottom at 1.1161 and a higher low at 1.1169; bounce capped just under 1.1200.
The Asia-session slide on French fiscal stress took EUR/USD through 1.1200 to a 1.1161 session low, which held twice before a recovery into early London. The bounce was rejected at the 1.1198 session high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib just under the 1.1200 round number. The 1.1169 higher low on rising support is holding so far.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1221
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1200 (session high and 38.2% fib) opens the 50% retracement near 1.1211 and the friday low at 1.1221
A break of the 1.1169 higher low and rising support exposes the 1.1161 session low and the double-bottom base
Eurozone Services/Composite PMIs at 07:55/08:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel (07:45) and Lane (08:00) could materially shift this read within the hour
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia sell-off paused · RSI 45 · price 1.1188
Double bottom at 1.1161, higher low at 1.1169, rebound capped at the 38.2% fib.
Asia sold EUR/USD about 100 pips on French fiscal stress and safe-haven USD demand. The slide cut through 1.1200 and found a double bottom at 1.1161, and the rebound printed a higher low at 1.1169 on the pre-London dip. London opens just below EMA20 after rejection at the 1.1198 session high, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the drop, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 45.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1198 session high and 1.1200 opens the 1.1224 breakdown point, where the 02:15 UTC acceleration began
Loss of the 1.1169 higher low exposes the 1.1161 double btm; a break there resumes the downtrend leg
EZ Services/Composite PMIs at 07:55–08:00 UTC plus Lane (08:00) and Schnabel (09:00) could shift this read within the hour
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC and any French budget headlines remain live risk during NY hours
Asia selloff, double low at 1.1161, bounce capped at 1.1198.
French fiscal stress drove an Asia-session leg from 1.1260 to a double low at 1.1161, cutting through 1.1200. The bounce stalled at the 1.1198 bounce high, at the 38.2% retracement of the Asia drop and just under the broken 1.1200 handle. The 06:30 UTC bar dipped to a 1.1169 swing low and recovered ahead of London open, with price still below EMA20.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1161, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1198 bounce high and 1.1200 opens the path to the 1.1224 breakdown area
Failure to hold the 1.1169 swing low puts the 1.1161 double low back in play; a break below it extends the downtrend toward the 1.1150 round number
EZ PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and Nagel/Lane/Schnabel from 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
French budget or bond-spread headlines remain a continuous risk to the structure
Asian sell-off to 1.1161 double bottom; bounce capped at 1.1198, lower high forming.
Asia session cut roughly 100 pips from 1.1261 to a 1.1161 session low on French fiscal stress and a safe-haven USD bid, where a double bottom triggered a bounce. The recovery was rejected at the 1.1198 bounce high, the 38.2% retrace of the drop and near ema20, and is easing back into the London open with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.11751, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.11982, 1.1200
What it said to watch
EZ Services/Composite PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and ECB's Lane 08:00 / Schnabel 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number, the broken support, would invalidate the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 1.1175 minor low exposes a retest of the 1.1161 session low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next volatility point for the NY session
Double bottom at 1.1161, higher-low chain into 38.2% fib.
The Asia session slid about 100 pips from 1.1261 to the asian low at 1.1161 on French fiscal stress and a safe-haven USD bid. A double bottom there has produced a higher-low recovery that is now pressing the 1.1200 round number, which coincides with the 38.2% fib and EMA20 near 1.1196, with London open about 45 minutes away.
Support: 1.11831, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number and 38.2% fib exposes the 50% fib at 1.1211
Loss of the 1.1183 higher low breaks the recovery chain and puts the asian low at 1.1161 back in play
EZ Services/Composite PMIs at 07:55–08:00 UTC and ECB Lane/Schnabel remarks could materially shift this read
French budget or political headlines remain the overriding unscheduled risk for EUR
Double low at 1.1161 followed by a higher-low chain; price pressing the 38.2% retrace.
French fiscal stress and a USD haven bid drove Asia from the 1.1261 asian high down to a double low at 1.1161. Since then the pair has climbed about 32 pips on steady higher lows, clearing the 1.1186 bounce high, and now sits just under EMA20 (~1.1196) and the 1.1200 round number, which lines up with the 38.2% retrace, an hour before London open.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1211, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number / 38.2% retrace puts the 50% retrace at 1.1211 in play
Failure to hold the 1.1186 bounce high brings the 1.1161 double low back into focus; a break below it resumes the downtrend
EZ Services/Composite PMIs from 07:15 UTC and Nagel/Lane/Schnabel remarks could materially shift this read into London
French fiscal headlines remain the overriding unscheduled risk; US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next USD test
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off Asia low · RSI 40 · price 1.11883
Double bottom at 1.1161, price at the 1.1186 neckline.
Late Asia session: EUR shed about 100 pips on French fiscal stress, breaking the 1.1200 round number and printing a 1.1161 Asia low twice, with RSI(14) diverging bullishly (8 vs 21). The double bottom rebound is pressing the 1.1186 neckline and 1.1189 bounce high. ema20 (~1.1195) and the 38.2% fib (~1.1199) cluster just under 1.1200.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1189, 1.1200, 1.1224
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1200 (round number, ema20, 38.2% fib) confirms the double bottom; the 1.1224 breakdown point is the next reference
Slip back below the 1.1186 neckline returns focus to the 1.1161 Asia low; a break there resumes the downtrend
London open plus EZ Services/Composite PMIs at 07:55 UTC and ECB Nagel/Lane at 07:45/08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled French budget headlines remain the dominant driver of this session
Asia selloff from 1.1261 to 1.1161, double low holding, lower high pending.
Asia session shed about 100 pips from 1.1261 to 1.1161 on French fiscal risk and a safe-haven USD bid, cutting through 1.1200 in a single 02:45 UTC bar. Two tests of the 1.1161 double low held and price has rebounded to 1.1186, just under the 1.1189 bounce high, with EMA20 (~1.1196), the 1.1200 round number and the 38.2% fib stacked overhead. RSI(14) is at 35, about 90 minutes before London open.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1189, 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1200 round number and 38.2% fib reopens the friday low at 1.1221
Rejection at the 1.1189 bounce high, then a break of the 1.1161 double low, extends the downtrend toward bbh support at 1.1111
Final HCOB PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and Lane/Schnabel around London open could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC and French budget headlines are the main tail risks for the NY session
Lower highs through Asia into 1.1161 double low; bounce testing swing high.
The Asia drop from 1.1261 accelerated through the 1.1200 round number around 02:45 UTC. French fiscal risk and safe-haven USD demand drove the move, and the 1.1161 double low printed twice. The late-Asia rebound is now pressing the 1.1186 swing high at the 23.6% retrace, with RSI(14) back to 34 and price still below an EMA20 near 1.1197.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1200, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 swing high completes the double bottom; the 1.1200 round number, EMA20 and the 1.1211 50% retrace sit directly above
Failure to hold the 1.1175 minor low puts the 1.1161 double low back in play; a break there exposes the 1.1111 bbh support
Eurozone final PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and Lane/Schnabel around London open could materially shift this read
French budget headlines remain the dominant tail risk; US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC for the USD side
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia selloff stalling · RSI 29 · price 1.11756
Friday post-NFP range broken lower in Asia; twin swing lows at 1.1161, bounce capped below 1.1186.
The Asia session broke below Friday's post-NFP range and sliced through the 1.12 break zone and the 1.1210 16-month low to a 1.1161 swing low, as French fiscal stress and safe-haven USD demand weighed. Demand held 1.1161 twice in late Asia, but the bounce has stalled below the 1.1186 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR running around 11 pips after the Asia selloff.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.12 break zone, also the 38.2% retrace of the Asia selloff, would undercut the breakdown read
A clean move through the 1.1186 bounce high shifts structure into a corrective bounce
Failure to hold the 1.1161 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the next support at 1.1111
Eurozone PMIs at 07:55–08:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel, Lane and Schnabel at 07:45–09:00 UTC land just after London open
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia flush · RSI 22 · price 1.11664
French fiscal stress and safe-haven USD demand drove an Asia-session slide through the friday low at 1.1221 and the 1.1200 round number, the line the digest had in focus, with the asia low printed twice at 1.1161. Price is now in a tight 1.1161–1.1186 consolidation capped by the bounce high. RSI(14) is near 22 and ATR is about 12 pips, with London yet to open.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Eurozone HCOB Services/Composite PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and ECB Nagel/Lane/Schnabel remarks from 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1186 bounce high puts the 1.1200 round number / 38.2% retrace back in play as resistance
Failure to hold the 1.1161 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1111 next support cited by BBH
Reclaim of the 1.1221 friday low would neutralise the Asia breakout
Late-Asia breakdown through 1.1200; lower high at 1.1186 under a twice-tested 1.1161 low.
The late-Asia sell-off on renewed French budget stress cut through Friday's low and the 1.1200 16-month low in a 40-pip bar. It printed a session low at 1.1161 twice, and the bounce stalled at the 1.1186 bounce high. RSI(14) is near 23, with the 1.1200–1.1223 fib zone of the Asia sell-off now overhead.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.11864, 1.1200, 1.12206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery back above the 1.1200 16m low and the 1.1221 friday low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1161 session low exposes the 1.1111 bbh level
ECB Nagel 07:45, German/EZ PMIs 07:55–08:00 and Lane 08:00 UTC at London open could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next USD risk during NY hours
Asia-session lower highs; broke Friday's low and 1.1200, then a shallow bounce off 1.1161.
Asia session erased the small Monday opening gap. Selling stepped down from 1.1261 through Friday's low at 1.1221 and the 1.1200 psych level, extending to a 1.1161 session low as French fiscal worries revived safe-haven USD demand. The bounce failed at 1.1186, the bounce high, below the 38.2% fib of the Asia sell-off near 1.1200; RSI(14) sits around 24 and ATR has expanded to roughly 9–10 pips.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1161 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1111 extension flagged in the digest
M15 close back above the 1.1186 bounce high, then the 1.1200 psych level, would mark the break below Friday's low as a potential false break
Eurozone PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and ECB Lane/Schnabel around the London open could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk; French budget headlines remain an unscheduled risk
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia flush · RSI 21 · price 1.11836
Lower highs through Asia, breakdown below Friday range, shallow bounce.
Asia bled lower from the 1.1261 open and broke through the 1.1221 Friday low and 1.1200 psych level. The slide ended in a roughly 100-pip flush to a 1.1161 session low as French fiscal fears and haven USD demand returned. RSI(14) is near 21, and the bounce is stalling at the 1.1186 bounce high, which sits on the 23.6% fib of the Asian drop.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.11864, 1.1200, 1.12206
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1200 psych, which is also the 38.2% fib, would undercut the breakdown read and put the 1.1221 Friday low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1161 session low marks a fresh lower low, with the 1.1111 BBH level next
Holding below the 1.1186 bounce high keeps the post-flush bounce shallow
London open brings ECB Nagel (07:45 UTC) and Lane (08:00 UTC), plus HCOB Services/Composite PMIs at 07:55/08:00 UTC, which could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next USD risk point
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp leg lower · RSI 16 · price 1.1180
Asia lower highs and lower lows, Asian range broken below Friday low.
An Asia-session sell-off, in line with renewed French fiscal fears, broke Friday's pre-NFP low at 1.1221 and the 1.1200 psych level, then extended to a 1.1161 session low between 02:45 and 03:00 UTC. RSI(14) is near 16 and deeply oversold. The latest bar's long lower wick shows a first bounce toward 1.1180, which leaves 1.1200 overhead as broken support, close to the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1161 session low exposes the 1.1111 BBH level
M15 close back above the 1.1200 psych level and the 38.2% fib softens the breakdown read; the Friday low at 1.1221 sits above
HCOB Services/Composite PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and ECB speakers Nagel, Lane and Schnabel could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst for the session
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 11 · price 1.1177
Lower highs through Asia, impulsive break below 1.1200.
The Asia session ground lower from the 1.1261 Monday high as French fiscal risk resurfaced. A 40-pip 02:45 UTC bar took out the 1.1200 broken low and printed a 1.1166 session low, leaving RSI(14) near 11, deeply oversold. The 38.2% fib sits at about 1.1202, and the descending tl and Friday low converge near 1.1220.
Support: 1.1166, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1221
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1200 broken low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1166 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1150 round number
Rebounds into the descending tl and Friday low near 1.1220 are the area to watch for rejection
HCOB PMIs at 07:55–08:00 UTC and ECB Nagel/Lane/Schnabel from 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia session: a steady lower-highs slide from the 1.1261 Asian high cut through the 1.1221 friday low and printed a 1.1203 session low as French fiscal worries returned. RSI(14) near 14 is deeply oversold, with price pressing the 1.1200 psych level ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12031, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12206, 1.12501
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1203 session low and the 1.1200 psych level extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.1221 friday low, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia sell-off, would mark the breakdown as stalling
A break above the lower-highs line would end the Asia sell-off structure; 1.1250 fri close is the next reference above
ECB Nagel 07:45 UTC, Lane 08:00 UTC and HCOB Services/Composite PMIs 07:55-08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC later today is the main USD risk for this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 20 · price 1.12123
Lower highs through Asia, Friday low broken.
Asia session reversed off the 1.1261 Asian high once the weekend gap filled, carving lower highs under a descending trendline and breaking Friday's pre-NFP low at 1.1221 as French fiscal worries outweighed post-NFP USD softness. Session low printed at 1.1208 with RSI(14) near 20 and price just above the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12206, 1.12608
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1221 friday low would make the break a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1208 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Close above the descending trendline or the 38.2% of the asian sell-off fib near 1.1228 ends the lower-high sequence
ECB Nagel/Lane and HCOB Services/Composite PMIs 07:45-08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Unbroken lower-high/lower-low chain since the 1.1261 Asia high, testing the NFP low.
Asia session slid about 38 pips from the 1.1261 Asia high. It filled the weekend gap through the 1.1250 Friday close and erased Friday's post-NFP rally as French fiscal fears and haven USD demand returned. Price is pressing the 1.1221 NFP low with RSI(14) near 18, and lower highs are capping every bounce.
Support: 1.12206, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12374, 1.1250, 1.12608
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1221 nfp low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 psych level
Reclaim of the 1.1237 fib 38.2 and a break of the lower-highs trendline would mark the first structural pause in the slide
ECB Nagel/Lane and HCOB Services/Composite PMIs from 07:45 UTC at London open could materially shift this read
Recovery back above the 1.1250 friday close would neutralise the Asia breakdown
02:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extended into Asia low · RSI 26 · price 1.12315
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high, gap above filled.
Asia session opened with a gap up from Friday's close, set its high at 1.1261, then sold off in a steady lower-high chain. Price has filled the gap and broken back through the 1.1250 Friday close, and is now near the 1.1229 session low with RSI(14) at 26, as French fiscal concerns weigh on EUR. The next reference below is Friday's NFP low at 1.1221.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1221, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250, 1.1261
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1221 NFP low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.1200 round number
An M15 close back above the 1.1241 fib 38.2 breaks the lower-high chain
A recovery above the 1.1250 Friday close unwinds the Asia selloff
HCOB Services/Composite PMIs (07:55–08:00 UTC) and ECB Nagel/Lane/Schnabel around London open could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, RSI near oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.12318
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1261 Asia high; weekend gap filled.
EURUSD has ground lower through Monday's Asia session from the 1.1261 Asia high after the weekend gap above Friday's 1.1250 close filled. French fiscal concerns are weighing, and price has now retraced roughly 80% of Friday's NFP leg. Price sits just above Friday's 1.1227 swing low with RSI(14) near 27, and the Asia lower highs remain intact.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1221, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1221 nfp-day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Recovery above the 1.1250 fri close breaks the Asia lower highs trendline and negates the downtrend read
Nagel 07:45 UTC and HCOB Services/Composite PMIs 07:55-08:00 UTC could materially shift this read into London open
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC is the NY-session risk; an RSI(14) push below 20 before then would mark a stretched move
01:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 31 · price 1.12363
Gap-fill then LH/LL sequence off the Asian high, trading at the session low.
Asia session opened with a small gap above Friday's 1.1250 close that filled within the first hour. A lower-high sequence off the 1.1261 Asian high has since driven price to a 1.1234 session low, with RSI(14) near 31, as French fiscal worries outweigh post-NFP USD softness; Friday's 1.1221 NFP low sits just below.
Support: 1.12338, 1.12206, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12441, 1.12501, 1.12608
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1250 friday close negates the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 38.2 fib at 1.1244 would be the first break of the lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.1234 session low exposes the 1.1221 nfp low, then the 1.1200 round number
HCOB Services/Composite PMIs and ECB Nagel/Lane from 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the second event risk of the day
Early Asia opened with a small gap above the 1.1250 friday close. The gap filled at once, and since the 1.1261 session high price has printed lower highs under a descending trendline back to the 1.1242 nfp pullback low. That leaves the post-NFP rally from the 1.1221 friday low to the 1.1285 friday high about two-thirds retraced in thin weekend-hangover flow, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) around 44 pips.
Support: 1.12422, 1.12344, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12501, 1.12608, 1.12851
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1242 nfp pullback exposes the post-NFP fib 78.6 at 1.1234, then the 1.1221 friday low
Reclaim of the descending trendline and the 1.1250 friday close breaks the Asia lower-high chain; session high 1.1261 sits above
HCOB Services/Composite PMIs plus ECB Nagel, Lane and Schnabel from 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC follows
00:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.12442
Weekend gap filled; price broke below Friday's late range low at 1.1248.
Early in the Asia session, price filled the weekend gap back to the 1.1250 Friday close and sold through it. Lower highs off the 1.1261 Asia high, which form the Asia trendline, took price to 1.1244. That sits at the 61.8% retrace of Friday's NFP rally and just above the 1.1242 post-NFP low, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 5 pips in thin Monday flow.
Support: 1.12422, 1.12269, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12501, 1.12608, 1.12851
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1242 post-NFP low extends the NFP rally retrace toward the 1.1227 pre-NFP low and the 1.1221 Friday low
A recovery above the 1.1250 Friday close and the Asia trendline would invalidate the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1261 Asia high next
Eurozone Services PMIs from 07:55 UTC, plus Nagel, Lane and Schnabel remarks, could shift this read; ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the later risk, with the 1.1285 Friday high as the upper marker
Monday gap filled; price pressing the 61.8% retrace of Friday's post-NFP rally.
Monday's ~9-pip gap above the 1.1250 Friday close has fully filled. Asia session has printed lower highs from the 1.1261 session high to a 1.1244 session low, testing the 61.8% retracement of Friday's NFP-driven rally (1.1221–1.1285). Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 39, and EUR remains heavy on French fiscal stress despite the soft USD backdrop.
Support: 1.12444, 1.1240, 1.12206
Resistance: 1.12501, 1.12608, 1.12851
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1250 fri close and the Asia lower-highs line negates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1244 session low and the 61.8% retrace exposes the 1.1240 pre-nfp area, then the 1.1221 nfp low
Session high at 1.1261 caps the Asian range; the 1.1285 nfp high is the upper reference
EZ PMIs at 07:55–08:00 UTC plus ECB's Lane and Schnabel around London open could materially shift this read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the NY session risk; weekend French fiscal headlines remain a downside driver
00:16 UTC
Sideways after post-NFP fade · RSI 45 · price 1.12488
Tight range 1.1248–1.1261 since Friday afternoon, weekend gap filled.
Early Asia session: Monday's roughly 9-pip gap up has filled, and price is back on the 1.1248 range low that has held since Friday's fade from the 1.1285 nfp high. The range high at 1.1261 capped price again overnight, and the 61.8% fib of the nfp swing sits just below at 1.1245. ATR near 5 pips reflects thin Asian conditions.
Support: 1.1248, 1.1221
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1248 range low and 61.8% fib breaks the range and exposes the 1.1221 nfp low
Close above the 1.1261 range high reopens Friday's london high at 1.1269 and the 1.1285 nfp high
EZ PMIs from 07:55 UTC plus ECB's Nagel, Lane and Schnabel are the likely catalysts to break the Asian range
Fresh French fiscal headlines remain a downside risk for EUR