EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 18 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in a base · RSI 52 · price 1.14869
Post-FOMC range between 1.1455 and 1.1497 after a lower high.
The dominant move of the week was Wednesday's NY-session collapse from the 1.1556 week high, a single bar shedding ~70 pips on the Fed's hawkish dot-plot upgrade and leaving the pre-FOMC base near 1.1530 well overhead. Since then price has held a 40-pip band: the 1.1497 thu high capped two attempts on Thursday, while Friday's NY leg down stalled at 1.14546 — a near-exact match of Thursday's 1.14545 low and the 6-week low shelf flagged in the market read. The weekend close at 1.1487 sits back above EMA20 with RSI(14) in the low 50s, so the range read is intact rather than resolved.
Support: 1.1478, 1.1455, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1497, 1.1530, 1.1556
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1497 thu high would invalidate the range read and put the pre-fomc 1.1530 area back in play
Sustained trade below the 1.1455 6-week low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1435 then 1.1400 psych zone
Loss of EMA20 near 1.1478 on a close would return price to the lower half of the range
HIGH-impact Lagarde Monday 15:00 UTC plus early-week Fedspeak could materially shift this read in the first sessions of the week
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening near the lows · RSI 42 · price 1.14737
Post-Fed impulse leg lower, then a 45-pip range with a double test of 1.1455.
The week's dominant move was a single-hour 65-pip break from 1.1535 into 1.1470 on Wednesday's hawkish Fed dot plot, and price has done nothing but range 1.1455–1.1497 since. The NY session today pushed back to 1.14546, matching Thursday's 1.14545 low for a double bottom on the shelf, before recovering to close at 1.14737, right on the EMA(20) around 1.1473 and still well below EMA(50) near 1.1483. RSI(14) at 42 has held between roughly 35 and 60 through the whole post-Fed consolidation — no divergence, just compression.
Support: 1.1473, 1.14546, 1.1440
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close below the 1.14546 week low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1440 / 1.1400 round number area
Reclaiming 1.14975 range top would invalidate the post-Fed range read
Losing the ema20 at 1.1473 puts the 1.1455 shelf back in play immediately
ECB's Nagel Sunday and Lagarde Monday 15:00 UTC are the first speaker risks that could reprice this range
The week's dominant move was the single-bar collapse out of the 1.1527–1.1556 Monday-to-Wednesday range on Wednesday's hawkish FOMC hike, which took EURUSD straight to a six-week low at 1.1455 and reset the H1 sequence into lower highs. Thursday and Friday have been a flat consolidation above that shelf: Friday's Asia bounce stalled at the friday high of 1.1491, and the London–NY transition leg lower retested 1.1455 to the pip before closing back at 1.1463, with a big German PPI beat leaving no visible mark. EMA20 at 1.1472 is capping the last five bars and RSI(14) sits near 39, holding in the lower half of its range all week without yet printing a divergence at the equal lows.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1491, 1.1535
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 1.1455 shelf confirms a fresh lower low and exposes next support at 1.1435
Reclaiming 1.1472 (ema20) and then the 1.1491 friday high would invalidate the lower-high sequence; the pre-fomc low at 1.1535 is the wider cap
Lagarde (Mon) and Fedspeak into Wednesday's US PMIs are the next scheduled catalysts capable of breaking this consolidation
Weekend gap risk on oil and Middle East supply headlines given the thin 10-pip ATR backdrop
15:01 UTC
Downtrend since the Fed drop, now range-bound near lows · RSI 39 · price 1.14619
Lower highs against a flat base at 1.1455; price back at the range floor.
Wednesday's hawkish FOMC bar broke the 1.1530–1.1560 shelf in a single hour and price has spent the two sessions since trapped between 1.14545 and the 1.14975 range high. Today's NY hours produced the cleanest push of the week back to the range low, with three attempts at 1.1490 all failing to hold — a lower-highs sequence into flat support. Price trades below both EMA20 (~1.1475) and EMA50 (~1.1485) with RSI(14) near 39, the softest reading since the Fed bar itself.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.14745, 1.14903, 1.14975
What it said to watch
An hourly close below 1.14545 confirms a lower low and a range break, opening 1.1435 next support
Reclaiming the 1.14745 ema20 on a close would neutralise the lower-highs sequence and keep the range intact
Thin euro calendar into Monday, but Lagarde and Tuesday's US flash PMIs are the events most likely to break this 1.1455–1.1497 band
14:01 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.14688
Two-day range 1.1455-1.1497 under a lower-high sequence.
The week's entire move happened in one bar: the hawkish Fed on Wednesday knocked EURUSD out of a 1.1530-1.1563 shelf straight to 1.14545, and price has done nothing since but rotate in a 1.1455-1.1497 range. Two attempts at the range top at 1.14975 were rejected and each subsequent high has been lower, while today's NY hours retested 1.14546 and closed back up at 1.14688 — a second defence of the same range floor. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 1.1478 with RSI(14) at 45, and the hot German PPI print did nothing for the euro because this remains a dollar story.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1478, 1.14975, 1.1545
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.14975 range top invalidates the two-day range read
A close below 1.14545 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1435 next shelf
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 1.1478 and holding would firm up the base
ECB's Lagarde Monday 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to this structure
07:01 UTC
Downtrend on the week, momentum stalled · RSI 53 · price 1.14792
Lower highs into a two-day post-FOMC consolidation.
Monday-through-Wednesday chop in the 1.1530s ended with the FOMC bar at 21:00 broker time on Wednesday, a 75-pip range break lower that printed the week low at 1.14545 in the Asia hours after. Since then price has consolidated in a 1.1455–1.14975 band, with Thursday's NY session producing the range top at 1.14975 and Friday's Asia/early-London hours holding a tighter 1.1473–1.14914 box pinned to EMA(20) around 1.1480. This morning's hot German/eurozone PPI has not been enough to reclaim the 1.1500 round number, and RSI(14) near 53 reflects the loss of directional momentum rather than a turn.
Support: 1.1473, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.14975 range top would invalidate the consolidation read and put 1.1500 round number in focus
Loss of the 1.1473 session low re-exposes the 1.14545 week low
The lower highs line off Thursday's NY high is the cap to monitor while friday lows hold
Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) are the nearest catalysts that could break this range
Wednesday's NY session hourly bar did the damage — a single 75-pip candle broke the 1.1535 prior base after the hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot upgrade, and price has spent the four sessions since basing between 1.1455 and 1.1497. Since the Thursday low at 1.1455 the sequence of higher lows has held, with the Asia session lifting spot back to 1.1486, above EMA(20) at 1.1481 but still capped by EMA(50) near 1.1492 and the 1.1497 range top. RSI(14) has recovered to the high-50s from oversold without a corresponding new high in price — the base is flattening rather than reversing.
Support: 1.1481, 1.1473, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1492, 1.1497, 1.1535
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.1497 range top would end the four-session base and put 1.1535 prior base in focus
Loss of the 1.1473 session low re-exposes the 1.1455 week low
Eurozone/German PPI at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT land inside the next bars and can reset this range read
Rejection at EMA(50) near 1.1492 keeps price pinned inside the base
05:01 UTC
Downtrend on the week, momentum stalled · RSI 54 · price 1.14899
Post-FOMC base carving higher lows into a converging range.
The dominant move of the week landed in one bar during Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish Fed hike knocked EUR/USD from 1.1545 to 1.1455 and set the week low at 1.14545. Since then price has spent ~34 hours in a tightening pennant between the 1.14975 range top and a series of higher lows, with the 1.1473 day low holding through the Asia session and the ema20 near 1.1480 catching each pullback. Price is now pressing the 1.1492 ema50 after two rejections at the range top, with RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR compressed to ~6.5 pips.
Support: 1.1480, 1.1473, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.1492, 1.14975, 1.1505
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.14975 range top exposes the 1.1505 pivot cap; failure there keeps the consolidation intact
Loss of the 1.1473 day low and the ema20 at 1.1480 would put the 1.14545 week low back in play
Eurozone PPI at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC fall inside the next bars and can break this range compression
04:01 UTC
Downtrend on the week, momentum stalled · RSI 46 · price 1.14789
Post-FOMC break lower, now a tight range with higher lows.
Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike knocked EUR/USD out of the 1.1530–1.1570 shelf that had held since Monday's open, a single 65-pip H1 bar into 1.1470 followed by a week low at 1.14545 in the Asia hours. The recovery through Thursday's NY session stopped at 1.14975 — just under the H1 EMA(50) — and price has since coiled between the 1.1473 range floor and a 1.1483 range top, with EMA(20) flattening out right at spot and RSI(14) in the mid-40s. Higher lows off 1.14545 are intact but each bounce has been shallower, and the pre-fed base at 1.1530 remains untested.
Support: 1.1473, 1.14545, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1483, 1.14975, 1.1530
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14975 thu high would end the post-FOMC consolidation and put the 1.1530 pre-fed base back in play
Loss of the 1.1473 range floor reopens the 1.14545 week low, with 1.1400 the psych level beneath it
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and the BoJ decision land inside the next few bars and could break this range either way
Failure of the higher-lows sequence off 1.14545 invalidates the recovery read
03:01 UTC
Downtrend on the week, momentum stalled · RSI 45 · price 1.14816
Post-FOMC range 1.1455-1.1497 under a broken 1.1530s shelf.
Price ground lower from Monday's 1.1581 open all week before the hawkish Fed hike at the Wednesday NY-afternoon bar snapped the 1.1530s pre-fomc low with a 65-pip candle into 1.1455, the week low. Thursday's NY session bounce stalled at 1.1497, the prior high, with EMA(50) around 1.1493 still overhead, and Friday's Asia session is holding a tight band just above EMA(20) near 1.1478 with RSI(14) mid-40s. Net effect is a two-day sideways base absorbing the post-FOMC move rather than extending it.
Support: 1.1478, 1.1455, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1497, 1.1530
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1497 (prior high) with EMA(50) reclaimed would invalidate the post-FOMC range read
Failure to hold 1.1478 (ema20) then 1.1455 (week low) confirms a lower low and puts 1.1400, the round number, in focus
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman shortly after could break the current 40-pip range
Lower highs since Monday, now a tight post-FOMC range with higher lows.
Price opened the week near 1.1586 and ground lower session by session, with the hawkish Fed hike bar at 21:00 broker time on Wednesday breaking the 1.1530 pre-FOMC base and dropping ~75 pips in a single hour to 1.1470. Thursday's NY session recovered part of that, but the bounce was capped at the prev day hi of 1.14975 and the Asian session has since coiled into a 1.1473–1.1480 band, ATR(14) compressed near 9 pips, with price pinned to EMA(20) and EMA(50) around 1.1495 overhead. Higher lows off the 1.14545 prev day low keep the post-FOMC move a consolidation rather than a continuation so far, and the week fib retracement of the Monday-to-Thursday slide has yet to see a 38.2% reclaim.
Support: 1.14728, 1.14545, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.15352
What it said to watch
German/EZ PPI at 09:00 broker time is the first scheduled catalyst able to break the tight Asian range
BoJ decision in Tokyo hours can move the dollar index and spill into this range even without EUR-specific news
Hourly close above the 1.14975 prev day hi would invalidate the post-FOMC consolidation ceiling and put EMA(50) near 1.1495 in play
Loss of the 1.14545 prev day low confirms a lower low and re-opens the path toward the 1.1400 psych area
01:01 UTC
Downtrend on the week, momentum flat since Thursday · RSI 44 · price 1.14741
Post-breakout range 1.1455-1.1498 with higher lows.
The week's dominant move came in a single hour: the hawkish Fed hike at Wednesday's 18:00 UTC decision broke the flat 1.1530-1.1560 pre-fed base and dumped price 65 pips, extending to the 1.14545 week low in the Asia handover. Thursday's NY session bought that back to 1.14975 before supply capped it, and price has since coiled into a 1.1455-1.1498 consolidation with a sequence of higher lows off the 1.14570 thu low. Into Friday's Asian range EURUSD sits at 1.14741, pinned either side of the H1 EMA20 near 1.14775 with RSI(14) back at a neutral 44 and the 1.1470 round number the immediate shelf.
Support: 1.1470, 1.1457, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14775, 1.14975, 1.15352
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.14975 thu high invalidates the post-Fed consolidation read and reopens the 1.15352 pre-fed base
Loss of 1.14545 week low confirms a lower low and extends the week's downtrend
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC and the BoJ decision ahead of the London open are the near-term event risks for this range
Failure to reclaim the EMA20 on repeated attempts would keep the higher-low sequence under pressure
Price has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.1595 session high through a clean series of lower highs, then broke hard out of Wednesday's pre-FOMC base near 1.1530 during the NY session as the hawkish Fed hike and upgraded dots hit — a single 75-pip H1 bar into 1.1470. Thursday's London and NY sessions have done nothing but consolidate that break in a 1.14545–1.14975 shelf, with the last close of 1.14776 pinned on EMA(20) around 1.1477 and RSI(14) recovering to the high-40s from post-break lows. EMA(50) near 1.1493 now caps the shelf, and the Thursday NY push to 1.14975 was rejected without a follow-through close.
Support: 1.1477, 1.1470, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1530
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.14975 thu high, and through EMA(50) near 1.1493, would end the consolidation read
Loss of the 1.147 round number and then the 1.14545 week low confirms the downtrend leg resuming
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC Friday fall inside the next bars and can break the shelf either way
Fed Bowman at 07:30 UTC — any fade in October hike pricing would pressure the post-FOMC dollar leg