21:02 UTC
Post-FOMC downtrend, now ranging · RSI 52 · price 1.14853
40-pip range: equal lows at 1.1455, marginally lower highs under 1.1497.
The dominant move of the week was Wednesday's post-FOMC slide, which took roughly 90 pips out of EUR/USD inside two hours and left the pre-FOMC shelf at 1.1535 abandoned. Since then price has worked a 40-pip band between the 1.14546 range low — tapped again in Friday's London session and held, forming a double bottom — and the 1.14975 range top, with the Friday NY session closing back at the upper end and above EMA(20) near 1.1477. RSI(14) at 52 is neutral after cycling from post-FOMC lows, and the 1.1500 round number has not been tested since the drop.
Support: 1.1477, 1.14546, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500, 1.1535
What it said to watch
- An H1 close above the 1.14975 range top, and then 1.1500, would end the post-FOMC range read
- Failure to hold the 1.14546 range low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1435 psych level
- Lagarde at 15:00 UTC Monday is the first scheduled risk into the new week and could reset this range
- ATR(14) near 10 pips: a sustained expansion beyond that would signal the consolidation is resolving