Higher lows off the day low, consolidating under session high.
London sold EURUSD from the 1.14914 asia high down to the 1.14546 day low on the post-FOMC dollar bid, then NY reversed the entire leg with a vertical 17:00 UTC push through the 1.14734 breakout base. Last eight bars are pinned in a 1.14796–1.14899 shelf under the session high with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) around 4 pips — liquidity draining into the weekly close.
Support: 1.14796, 1.14734, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14914 asia high would extend the NY recovery leg
Loss of the 1.14796 ny range low re-exposes the 1.14734 breakout base
Sub-1-pip final bar: the print is thin, gap risk at the weekly reopen
ECB Nagel Sun 08:30 UTC and Lagarde Mon 15:00 UTC are the next catalysts for this range
20:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the day low, momentum steady · RSI 65 · price 1.14882
Higher-high / higher-low chain since 12:15 UTC, holding above the breakout base.
London's 10:30 UTC flush took EUR/USD to 1.14546 — the six-week-low shelf the USD digest flags near 1.1455 — before the NY session reclaimed it, with a 17:00 UTC impulse bar clearing the 1.14734 breakout base as post-FOMC dollar longs took profit. Price closes the week at 1.14882 into the 1.14899 ny high / 1.14912 day high cluster, RSI(14) near 65 and ATR(14) about 28 pips; the final bar is a thin 6-pip weekly-close print.
Support: 1.14796, 1.14734, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14912
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14912 day high would extend the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.14796 post-breakout low would put the 1.14734 breakout base back in play
Weekend gap risk plus ECB Nagel Sun 08:30 UTC and high-impact Lagarde Mon 15:00 UTC could reset this intraday read
Higher lows since 12:15 UTC, coiling under session high.
London's slide into the 1.14546 session low was fully retraced through NY, with a clean breakout through 1.14831 at 17:00 UTC as the dollar gave back part of the post-FOMC spike. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.14850–1.14899 band into the Friday close, RSI(14) near 68 and ATR(14) just 4.3 pips — range compression, not fresh impulse.
Support: 1.14796, 1.14734, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.14899 session high, then 1.14914 prior high, would extend the recovery leg
Loss of the 1.14796 ny range low would negate the higher-low chain built since the session low
Thin late-Friday liquidity plus weekend gap risk ahead of ECB Nagel and Fedspeak Monday can distort this micro-structure
Higher lows off session low, tight flag under session high.
EURUSD based at 1.14546 around midday and ground back up through NY, breaking the 1.14734 pre-brk low area and holding a tight flag floor at 1.14800 before pressing a fresh session high at 1.14899 late in the session. Move is dollar-leg driven — post-FOMC USD bid paused as US Industrial Production missed — with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) at roughly 4 pips, so ranges are thin into the close.
Support: 1.1480, 1.14734, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14914, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Close above 1.14899 and then the 1.14914 prior high would extend the recovery leg toward the 1.15000 psych level
Loss of the 1.14800 flag floor breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens 1.14734
Late-session liquidity is thin; weekend gap risk plus Monday Fedspeak/ECB speakers can reset this intraday read
EURUSD based twice around the 1.14546 session low into early NY as the post-FOMC dollar bid paused, then broke the 1.14830 breakout base at 16:45 UTC and has held above the ema20 at 1.14782 since. Last bars are pressing the 1.14899 session high with the london high at 1.14914 directly above; RSI(14) at 67 is hot but not extreme, and the retrace of the 1.14914-1.14546 drop is now ~88%.
Support: 1.1483, 1.14782, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14899, 1.14914, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14914 london high opens the path toward the 1.15000 psych level
Loss of the 1.14830 breakout base returns price inside the 1.1455-1.1485 NY range
ATR(14) at ~4 pips reflects thin Friday-close conditions; range readings from this window degrade after the weekend break
Lagarde speech Monday 15:00 GMT is the next scheduled event able to reshape this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the day low, momentum extended · RSI 74 · price 1.14856
Higher highs and higher lows since 12:15 UTC, now coiling under the session high.
London hours sold EUR/USD from 1.14914 to a 1.14546 day low, but the NY session reversed it: the 1.14734 prior shelf gave way on the 17:00 UTC candle and price has since ground out a tight 1.14805-1.14857 range with the dollar's post-FOMC bid fading late Friday. RSI(14) near 74 and ATR(14) around 4.5 pips — extended but with volatility already compressing into the weekend close.
Support: 1.14805, 1.14734, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14857, 1.14914
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.14857 session high opens the path back to the 1.14914 day high
Loss of the 1.14805 range floor breaks the rising-lows chain built off the day low
Final bars are thin, late-Friday liquidity — range edges hold less information here
Lagarde Monday 15:00 GMT is the first scheduled risk capable of resetting this range
19:02 UTC
Recovery leg off the session low, momentum flattening · RSI 69 · price 1.14832
Higher lows since 12:15 UTC, now consolidating under the session high.
London sold EURUSD from the 1.14914 asia high down to a six-week low at 1.14546 on the post-FOMC dollar bid, and NY has retraced almost all of it — the 17:00 UTC bar broke the intraday range and stalled at the 1.14849 session high. Last eight bars are a 5-pip consolidation above the 1.14796 range floor with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR(14) around 5 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 1.14796, 1.14714, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14849, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Close back under the 1.14796 range floor would put the recovery leg in question and re-expose the 1.14714 breakout base
Acceptance above the 1.14849 session high opens the path to the 1.14914 asia high
Thin liquidity into the weekly close can exaggerate wicks on either side of the range
Fresh session risk resumes with ECB Nagel and Lagarde speeches early next week
18:47 UTC
Recovery leg off the session low, momentum flattening · RSI 64 · price 1.14817
Higher lows since 12:15 UTC, now coiling under the session high.
London hours sold EURUSD from 1.1483 down to 1.14546 near the six-week low as the DXY held its post-FOMC gains, then NY bought it back in a chain of higher lows, with the 17:00 UTC bar breaking out from 1.14734 to the 1.14849 session high. Last six bars have gone flat in a 1.14796–1.14849 band with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR(14) around 5 pips — thin late-NY conditions, no fresh structure.
Support: 1.14796, 1.14734, 1.14648
Resistance: 1.14849, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.14796 range floor puts the 1.14734 breakout base back in play
A close above the 1.14849 session high opens the path to the 1.14914 prior high
Failure to hold 1.14648 swing low would re-expose the 1.1455 area
Weekend headline risk into ECB Nagel Sunday 08:30 GMT — gap risk on the reopen can invalidate this intraday read
Higher lows since the 12:15 UTC low, coiling under the session high.
EUR/USD was sold through the London-NY transition into 1.14546 — the session low, sitting on the 1.1455 area flagged as the breakdown pivot — with the dollar still parked near post-FOMC highs, then built a chain of higher lows across NY. A late-NY impulse off the 1.14734 impulse base carried price into the 1.14849 session high, where the last four bars have compressed into a sub-6-pip range with RSI(14) at 60.
Support: 1.14734, 1.14603, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14849, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14849 session high exposes the 1.14914 asia high
Loss of the 1.14734 impulse base returns price into the 1.14603 range low band
ATR(14) at ~4.6 pips and a tightening range into the late NY hours — no EUR or USD releases scheduled in the next 8h, so the next cue is Monday's Fedspeak and Lagarde
18:17 UTC
Recovering off the day low, short-term uptrend · RSI 58 · price 1.14819
Higher lows since the 1.14546 day low, consolidating under the session high.
Firm US yields and the post-FOMC dollar bid drove EURUSD from 1.14914 down to 1.14546 into the London-NY overlap, but the last four hours have built a higher-low chain and a clean 15m breakout through the 1.14746 prior high. Price is now boxed in 1.14796-1.14849 in the final NY hours with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR(14) just 4.7 pips — momentum cooling rather than reversing.
Support: 1.14746, 1.14603, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14849, 1.14914
What it said to watch
15m close above the 1.14849 session high opens the path back to the 1.14914 day high
Loss of 1.14746 prior high would negate the breakout and put the rising support line and 1.14603 swing low back in play
Liquidity thinning into the weekend close; ECB's Nagel and Lagarde headlines early next week are the first structural risk to this read
V-shaped recovery, higher lows since 12:15 UTC, capped under 1.14849.
Early NY hours sold the pair from 1.14830 down to a 1.14546 session low as the dollar held seven-week highs, then a second low at 1.14578 formed a double bottom and price has ground back up through the afternoon. The late-NY push cleared the 1.14734 breakout base in one bar to a 1.14849 session high, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.14734, 1.14603, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14849, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.14734 negates the breakout and returns price into the recovery range
Acceptance above 1.14849 session high opens the 1.14914 prior high
Loss of the 1.14603 higher low would re-expose the 1.14546 session low
Weekend risk: ECB's Nagel Sunday and Lagarde Monday can reprice this intraday structure on the reopen
NY range broken to the upside, higher lows off the session low.
The London session dragged EURUSD from the 1.14914 asia high down to a 1.14546 session low as the post-Fed dollar bid held, after which NY chopped in a 1.14578–1.1469 range for five hours. The last two bars cleared the 1.14733 swing low base and the range top in one move to a 1.14847 ny high, RSI(14) near 70 with ATR(14) only ~6 pips.
Support: 1.14733, 1.14578, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14847, 1.14872, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.14847 ny high opens the 1.14872 prior high and the 1.14914 asia high
Loss of the 1.14733 swing low puts price back inside the NY range toward the 1.14578 ny range low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the close can exaggerate this squeeze; weekend gap risk applies to the level reads
London breakdown, NY base, reclaim of broken shelf.
London hours broke the 1.14725 shelf and sold down to a 1.14546 session low, after which price based between the ny base at 1.14603 and 1.14690 through the NY session. The last two bars reclaimed the broken shelf in one 10-pip candle to a 1.14831 session high with RSI(14) near 75 and ATR(14) only ~5.8 pips — an outsized move versus recent range, printed into the Friday close as the dollar held its seven-week high.
Support: 1.14725, 1.14603, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14831, 1.14865, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.14725 breakdown lvl would negate the late-NY reclaim
Acceptance above 1.14865 swing high puts the 1.14914 window high back in play
Final bar is thin (13 ticks) into the weekly close — Monday open gap risk against this level
No further EUR or USD data in the session; ECB's Nagel Sunday and Lagarde Monday 15:00 GMT are the next catalysts
Lower highs into a 1.1455–1.1475 base, now testing the broken shelf.
Price broke the Asian/London shelf at 1.1475 through the London-NY transition and dropped to a session low of 1.14546 as hawkish Fed repricing kept the Dollar bid; the German PPI beat did nothing for EUR. Since then a 1.1455–1.1475 base has held with buyers stepping in twice near the base shelf, and late NY has pushed back to retest the broken shelf with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR at ~6 pips.
Support: 1.1460, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1481, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close and hold above 1.1481 swing high would break the lower-high chain built since the session high at 1.14914
Loss of the 1.1460 base shelf reopens the 1.14546 session low
Thin late-Friday conditions can exaggerate moves at the broken shelf
Lower low at 1.1455 then higher-low chain off the base.
Price broke down through the 1.1480s during the London-NY overlap and printed a session low at 1.14546 — the six-week low flagged in the hawkish-Fed USD repricing — before basing for four hours between 1.1455 and 1.1469. The late-NY grind has produced a higher-low chain off 1.1461 and a breakout of that base into the session high at 1.14746, which is also the 61.8% retrace of the 1.14865-1.14546 drop; volume on the final bar is negligible into the Friday close.
Support: 1.1466, 1.1461, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14746, 1.14829
What it said to watch
Sustained trade back below 1.1461 breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 1.14546 session low
Acceptance above 1.14746 session high would put the 1.14829 drop origin in play as the next reference
Failure at the 61.8% retrace with a close back under the ema20 near 1.1466 turns the bounce into a retest of the base
Weekend gap risk: ECB speakers (Nagel Sun, Lagarde Mon) land with no intraday market to price them
Lower highs into 1.14546, now basing above it with a first higher high.
London-session breakdown from the 1.1490 area dragged price to 1.14546 as hawkish-Fed dollar demand dominated, with a large German PPI beat ignored. The last four hours based between the 1.1458 base low and 1.1469 base top; the close at 1.14718 pushes into the breakdown lvl and the 50% fib of that down-leg, RSI(14) back at 53 with ATR near 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.1469, 1.1458, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14725, 1.1479, 1.1485
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1469 base top would reinstate the 1.1458 base low as the active edge
Sustained trade under the 1.14546 session low resumes the down-leg
Acceptance above the 1.14725 breakdown lvl exposes the 1.1479 swing pivot
Late-session liquidity is thinning; Lagarde and Fedspeak early next week are the next catalysts for this read
Post-breakdown consolidation above 1.1458 after a sharp NY leg lower.
The London-NY transition broke the 1.1473-1.1491 Asian/early-London shelf and dumped price to a session low at 1.14546 on the broad USD bid after the hawkish Fed repricing. Since then EURUSD has consolidated in a 14-pip band, with the 1.14580 range floor holding four separate probes and supply capping every bounce at the 1.14690 range top; RSI(14) back to neutral near 47, ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 1.1458, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1469, 1.14725
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14690 range top, then 1.14725 breakdown level, invalidates the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 1.14580 range floor and a break of the 1.14546 session low confirms a lower low
Late-NY Friday liquidity thins into the close, so the range can widen on little news
Impulsive leg lower, now four hours of sideways compression above the session low.
Price broke the 1.1473/1.1478 prior base into the London-NY transition and sold off to a session low at 1.14546, in line with the broad USD bid at seven-week highs. The last four hours have been a tight 1.14582–1.14690 range with RSI(14) back to the mid-40s and ATR(14) near 5.6 pips; price is pinned on the EMA20 with EMA50 overhead.
Support: 1.14582, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.1469, 1.1476
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14582 range floor re-exposes the 1.14546 session low and the 1.1456 six-week low area
Acceptance above the 1.14690 range top would put the 1.14760 prior base back in play and invalidate the compression read
Late-NY liquidity thinning into the weekly close can distort range edges
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, now stalled in a tight range · RSI 47 · price 1.14639
Lower high at 1.1490, then a flat base at 1.1458 into NY.
EURUSD broke the 1.1473 prior shelf late in the London session and slid to a day low of 1.14546 with firm-USD post-Fed tone doing the work; no calendar release landed inside the window. NY hours have been a 11-pip box, with 1.1458 session low tested three times and the ny high at 1.1469 capping, RSI(14) back to mid-40s and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 1.1458, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1469, 1.1473
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14546 day low confirms a lower low and re-opens the 1.1435 area
Reclaim of 1.1473 prior shelf would invalidate the range break read
Sustained hold of 1.1458 session low keeps the NY range intact
Fed speaker commentary and US yields are the live drivers with the calendar empty
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in a base · RSI 48 · price 1.14676
Break of the 1.1473 shelf, then sideways basing 1.1455-1.1470.
The London-into-NY leg broke the 1.1473 prior low and extended to a session low at 1.14546, with the move consistent with the firmer dollar tone post-FOMC. Since then price has based between the 1.14578 base low and the 1.14695 range top, closing at 1.14676 in the upper half; RSI(14) near 48 and ATR(14) ~5.8 pips — mid-range and thinning into the Friday close.
Support: 1.14578, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14695, 1.14725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14695 range top would extend the retrace toward the 1.14725 prior low
Loss of the 1.14578 base low re-exposes the 1.14546 session low and confirms a lower-low
Thin late-NY liquidity and weekend gap risk; ECB's Lagarde Monday 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled event that could reset this range
The 1.1473–1.1490 London range broke to the downside into the NY session, printing a session low at 1.1455 that marginally undercut the 1.1456 six-week low the sell-side has been tracking. Since then price has coiled in a 13-pip band, RSI(14) at 42 and spot pinned just below EMA20, with the 1.1468 bounce high capping two attempts.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1468, 1.1473, 1.1490
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1473 breakdown pt invalidates the downside range break
Sustained trade below the 1.1455 session low exposes the 1.1450 round number and the 1.1435 area
The 1.1490 london high is the ceiling of the pre-breakdown range
Thin calendar and a heavy Fed speaker slate leave the next hours hostage to US yields
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening at the lows · RSI 45 · price 1.14636
London leg lower into a 1.1455-1.1470 base, lower highs since.
Price broke down through the Asian/early-London base at 10:30 UTC and ran to a session low of 1.14546 — marginally under the 1.1456 six-week low flagged in the dollar read — before recovering to 1.14695 and stalling. Since the NY open it has chopped in a 1.1458-1.1467 band with a sequence of lower highs, RSI(14) back to the mid-40s and ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 1.1458, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14695
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 1.14695 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.14546 session low re-opens the 1.14500 round number
Thin calendar; Fed-speaker and US-yield headlines are the main risk to this intraday base
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY-hours range break, now basing.
EURUSD broke the London shelf at 1.14725 into the NY open and ran to a session low of 1.14546, consistent with the dollar holding its post-Fed hawkish gains. Price has since coiled 1.14578–1.14695 with RSI(14) near 39 and price pinned under EMA20/EMA50; the bounce high at 1.14695 has capped two attempts.
Support: 1.14578, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14695, 1.14725
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14725 broken shelf would invalidate the intraday breakdown read
Close below the 1.14546 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1456 area flagged as first support
Failure to hold 1.14578 swing low on the next NY-hours push shifts the base lower
Fed speaker commentary and US yields remain the driver with the data calendar empty for the next 8h
The 1.1473-1.1490 Asian/early-London shelf broke down mid-London hours, price slicing to a session low at 1.14546 in a single 35-pip leg before stabilising; hawkish-Fed pricing and firm US yields remain the backdrop. Since the NY open it has chopped 1.14578-1.14695 under a falling EMA20, RSI(14) near 39 and ATR(14) only ~6 pips — no fresh impulse, just repair work below the break level at 1.14725.
Support: 1.14546, 1.14578
Resistance: 1.14695, 1.14725, 1.1485
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.14725 (break level) invalidates the range-break read
Failure to hold 1.14546 session low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1435 area
Repeated rejection at the 1.14695 bounce high keeps the descending-highs sequence intact
Thin calendar into the NY afternoon leaves Fed commentary as the main headline risk for this window
Lower highs since the 1.1491 london high, basing above 1.1455.
The overnight Asian range (1.1473-1.1480) was broken to the downside in London hours after the 1.14914 high failed, price extending to a 1.14546 session low before a 15-pip bounce to 1.14695 stalled. Into the first NY hour spot sits at 1.14605, back under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38 — soft but not stretched; the digest's yield-led USD firmness is the backdrop, with no tier-1 data in the window.
Support: 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14695, 1.1473, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1473 asian range would invalidate the downside range break read
Failure to hold the 1.14546 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1450 psych area
Calendar is empty next 8h — Fed/ECB speakers and US yields are the only drivers that can reshape this intraday structure
Range break lower, now consolidating above the session low.
London hours cracked the 1.1483 range floor that had held all of Asia and drove price to 1.14546, a fresh session low in line with the post-Fed, short-EUR consensus described in the digest. The bounce into the NY open stalled at the 1.14695 bounce high and the last six bars are compressing between there and 1.1460, with RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) is 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14695, 1.14725, 1.1483
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14725 break point would invalidate the range-break read
A close below 1.14546 session low exposes the 1.1450 round number
No scheduled EUR/USD releases in the next few hours — moves are liquidity-driven into the NY afternoon
Sustained rejection under the 1.14695 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high, now basing above the session low.
The 1.1478–1.1491 London range broke down from 10:30 UTC and EUR/USD lost ~35 pips into 1.14546 as the dollar firmed on the hawkish post-Fed narrative, with US Industrial Production hitting the tape at 13:15 UTC. Price has since stalled in a tight 1.1455–1.1470 base, capped by the 1.14725 breakdown shelf and the EMA20 at 1.14695; RSI(14) near 35 off a deeper extreme.
Support: 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14695, 1.14725
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close above 1.14725 (breakdown shelf) would negate the lower-high chain into the NY session
Failure to hold the 1.14546 session low confirms continuation toward the 1.1450 psych level
ATR(14) around 5.7 pips — sub-6-pip bars mean the current base is compressing, expansion either way resets the read
EMA20 at 1.14695 still acting as the immediate cap on bounces
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce off the lows · RSI 31 · price 1.14644
Range break lower, lower highs into 1.1470s.
The 1.1475–1.1490 Asia/early-London range broke lower late in the London morning, price slicing through the 1.14725 break level to a session low at 1.14546 with the hawkish-Fed dollar tone still dominant. The bounce stalled at 1.14695 and price is back at 1.14644, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) only ~5.6 pips.
Support: 1.14571, 1.14546
Resistance: 1.14695, 1.14725
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close above 1.14725 (break level) would invalidate the range break read
Loss of 1.14546 session low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Rejection at the 1.14695 bounce high keeps the lower-high chain intact
US data/Fed speaker flow into the NY session can widen the ~5.6 pip ATR quickly
Range break lower, lower highs into 1.1455 low then recovery.
The 1.1479–1.1490 band that held all Asia and London gave way from 10:30 UTC, with a clean range break through the 1.1479 range base and an extended slide to a 1.14546 session low as hawkish Warsh comments firmed the dollar into the London-NY transition. Last three bars have retraced roughly a third of that leg, stalling under the 1.14725 break level, RSI(14) recovering from the low 20s to ~34 with ATR(14) near 5.8 pips.
Support: 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14725, 1.1479, 1.14903
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC lands inside the next bar and can extend or unwind this leg
Reclaim and hold above the 1.14725 break level would neutralise the range break read
Loss of the 1.14546 session low puts the 1.1450 psych handle in play
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extending · RSI 29 · price 1.14635
Range break lower, lower highs and lower lows since London.
Price broke the 1.1480–1.1490 prior range in late London hours, dropping through the 1.14725 break level to a session low of 1.14546 as hawkish Fedspeak firmed the dollar. RSI(14) near 29 with price well below EMA20 and EMA50; the last two bars are a shallow bounce into 1.14635, leaving the psych 1.1450 handle untested.
Support: 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14725, 1.1483, 1.14865
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14725 break level would negate the downside range break
Failure to hold the 1.14546 session low exposes the 1.1450 psych handle
A push back into the 1.1483 prior range floor would reset the intraday structure to balance
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC lands inside the next bar and can re-price this leg
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extending · RSI 24 · price 1.14577
Range break lower, lower highs and lower lows since the 15:00 broker-time break.
Price chopped between 1.14730 and 1.14914 for most of the London session before a clean vertical break from the 1.14830 breakdown point through the 1.14728 asian low, running 28 pips to a 1.14546 session low as hawkish Warsh comments firmed the dollar into the London-NY transition. First stabilisation attempt is holding just above the round number with RSI(14) at 24 and price well below EMA20/EMA50; ATR(14) is 4.9 pips and expanding.
Support: 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14728, 1.1483, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14728 (asian low) would invalidate the range-break read
Failure to hold the 1.14546 session low and the 1.1450 round number confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC lands inside the next bar period and can extend or unwind this leg
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extending · RSI 24 · price 1.14597
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.14903 session high; Asian range low broken.
London sold the 1.14903 session high, sliced through the Asian range low at 1.1474 and the 1.14725 shelf, and printed 1.14571 — roughly 33 pips of one-way downside in under two hours with the dollar holding its post-Fed gains. Last three bars are consolidating 1.1458–1.1463 with RSI(14) near 24; ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.14571, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14725, 1.14865, 1.14903
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14725 broken shelf would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.14571 session low exposes the 1.1450 round number
Descending lower highs from 1.14903 cap the recovery attempts
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT plus Fed's Bowman fall in the next bar period and could reshape this read
Asian range floor broken, lower highs and lower lows into NY open.
The 1.1475-1.1480 floor that contained the entire Asian range gave way from 10:30 UTC, with five straight bars taking price to a 1.14571 session low before a shallow bounce to 1.14614 — consistent with the post-Fed dollar holding above the 100.00 DXY pivot. RSI(14) at 28 is stretched but not extreme, ATR(14) about 4.8 pips, and price is trading below both EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time in the window.
Support: 1.14571, 1.1450, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.14725, 1.1479
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14725 broken shelf would neutralise the downside range break
Failure to hold the 1.14571 session low exposes the 1.14500 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT lands within the next bars and can reprice this move
Stalling above 1.14571 while RSI lifts would mark the impulse as exhausted rather than extending
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg in progress · RSI 26 · price 1.14603
Range break lower, chain of lower highs and lower lows into NY.
London held a tight 1.1480–1.1486 shelf for most of the morning, then the last four bars cut through the 1.14830 range floor and the 1.14725 broken low to post a session low at 1.14578, with price now under both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) near 26 and ATR(14) around 4.7 pips means this leg is roughly three times the average bar range — stretched, but unchallenged, with the london high at 1.14903 far above and USD still holding its post-Fed gains.
Support: 1.14578, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14725, 1.1483, 1.14903
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14725 broken low would negate the range break
Acceptance below the 1.14500 round number extends the lower-low chain
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and Fed's Bowman land within the next few bars, straight into the NY open
A close back above the 1.14830 range floor restores the pre-breakdown balance
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh impulsive leg · RSI 25 · price 1.14643
Range break below the 1.1483 range low, lower highs, new session low.
The 1.1483–1.1486 shelf that contained the London morning gave way in the last hour, a range break dragging price to a fresh session low at 1.14636 with RSI(14) down near 25. Last four bars have run two to three times ATR(14) (~5 pips), consistent with the firmer USD tone into a position-squaring Friday; the 1.14914 session high and 1.14903 rejection define the lower-high chain above.
Support: 1.14636, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14725, 1.1483, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.14725 broken shelf would negate the range break
Acceptance below 1.1460 psych extends the down leg
Reclaim of the 1.1483 range low would put the day back inside its prior balance
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT lands inside the next bars and can reshape the move
Lower highs since NY yesterday, fresh 24h low after range break.
Late London trade broke the 1.14765 range floor that had held since the Asia session, printing a session low at 1.14696 and undercutting the Asian range on a 10-pip impulse bar; RSI(14) is down at 31 with ATR(14) near 4.8 pips. Price is now pinned just above the prior low at 1.1468, with the broken range floor overhead as first resistance after the earlier rejection at the 1.14903 london high — the hot German PPI bid that lifted EUR in Asia has been fully given back.
Support: 1.14696, 1.1468, 1.1465
Resistance: 1.14765, 1.1483, 1.14903
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14765 range floor would negate the downside break and put the 1.1483 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1468 prior low confirms a lower low into the NY open, exposing 1.1465 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled risk before NY hours and could re-price this move
Lower highs since 1.14914, Asian range low broken, 24h low printed at 1.14707.
London session rejected the 1.14903 high and then knifed through the 1.14831 shelf and the asia low at 1.14738, printing the 24h low at 1.14707 on the largest bar of the window (~10 pips). Price is back under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38 — soft but not stretched; the euro's early PPI-driven lift to ~1.1490 has been fully given back.
Support: 1.14707, 1.14688
Resistance: 1.14738, 1.14831, 1.14903
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14831 broken shelf on a 15m close would invalidate the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.14707 exposes the 1.14688 prior low
Acceptance back above the 1.14738 asia low would turn the break into a false break
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT and the NY open land inside the next few bars and could reset the intraday range
10:46 UTC
Sideways, no directional edge · RSI 53 · price 1.14823
Balanced range, mid-range close.
EURUSD is boxed between the 1.14775 session low and the 1.14914 range top, with two rejections there in Asia and early London as softer US yields and the hot German PPI print left the pair grinding sideways. RSI(14) at 53 and ATR of ~4.5 pips confirm compression — the last four bars have held a 3-pip band into the London-NY transition, and the 1.14975 prior high from yesterday's NY session is untested.
Support: 1.14775, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14914 range top ends the balance and puts 1.14975 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.14775 session low exposes the 1.14728 o/night low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT lands inside the next bar block and can break this range
Range between 1.1478 and 1.1491, twin highs capping.
London has held a tight 1.1478–1.1491 range, with rejection at 1.14903 mirroring the 1.14914 asia high to leave a double top; price sits mid-range at 1.14831, just above the ema20. The recovery off the 1.14728 asia low came alongside softer US yields and the hot German PPI print, but momentum is neutral with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR(14) only ~4.4 pips.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14824, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14903, 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14914 asia high invalidates the range read and exposes the 1.14975 prior day hi
Loss of the 1.14778 london low reopens the 1.14728 asia low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT lands in the NY open window and can break this range
Intraday range after London leg up stalled; lower highs since 1.14914.
London took price out of the tight Asian range and up to 1.14914 after the hot German PPI print, but the move was rejected there and has since built lower highs into 1.14837. Mid-London, price is mid-range between the 1.14775 session low and the 1.14914 london high, RSI(14) back to neutral at ~53 and ATR(14) just 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.14775, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14914 london high reopens 1.14975 prior day hi
Loss of the 1.14775 session low exposes the 1.14728 asia low
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT lands inside the NY open window and can break this range
EURUSD is boxed between the asia low at 1.14728 and the asia high at 1.14912, with the London session rejecting 1.14903 a second time to leave a double top; price sits back at 1.14849, just above the ema20. The grind higher off yesterday's NY lows tracks the softer US 10y and the hotter-than-forecast German PPI, but the 1.1490 ceiling has held on three attempts. ATR(14) at ~4.6 pips shows compressed intraday ranges.
Support: 1.14827, 1.14775, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14912, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14912 invalidates the double top and exposes the prior day hi at 1.14975
Loss of the london low at 1.14775 shifts focus to the asia low at 1.14728
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT and Fed's Bowman fall inside the next few bars and could break the range
London twice failed at the 1.14915 london high — 07:00 and 08:30 GMT pushes both faded straight back into the 1.1478/1.1485 pocket, leaving a flat double top. The grind up off the tight asia low at 1.1473 came with the hotter German PPI print and the retreat in US 10y yields; RSI(14) back at 52 and price pinned to EMA20/EMA50 shows the move has gone inert.
Support: 1.1478, 1.1473
Resistance: 1.14915, 1.14975
What it said to watch
A close above 1.14915 london high invalidates the double top read and opens the 1.14975 prior high
Loss of the 1.1478 london low re-exposes the 1.1473 asia low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only US data left today and can break this range
09:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 1.1482
London range inside the Asian range, lower highs capping.
EURUSD is compressed in a 12-pip London range between the 1.1478 session low and the 1.1490 session high, with rejection off 1.1490 twice in the last four hours and RSI(14) pinned near 50. The Asian bid off 1.1473 carried price to 1.14914 before stalling well under yesterday's 1.1497 prior day high, helped by the softer US yield backdrop rather than any fresh euro catalyst; ATR(14) at ~5 pips confirms the low-volatility state.
Support: 1.1478, 1.1473
Resistance: 1.1490, 1.1497
What it said to watch
15m close above the 1.1490 session high re-opens the 1.1497 prior day high
Loss of the 1.1478 session low exposes the 1.1473 asian low and invalidates the range read
US Industrial Production and Fed speak later in the NY session could break this compression
Asian range broken up, now capped by twin highs at 1.1491.
Friday European hours cleared the Asian range top but stalled twice at the 1.1491 session high — a double top that has capped the last four hours — with RSI(14) back at 49 and price pinned to EMA20 near 1.1484. The 1.1478 session low has absorbed three tests; the hot eurozone PPI print gave EUR a modest lift but the prior day high at 1.14975 remains untested.
Support: 1.1478, 1.14738
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.14914 session high opens the path to the prior day high at 1.14975
Loss of the 1.1478 session low re-exposes the asian low at 1.14738 and invalidates the breakout read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the next scheduled driver for this pair
Rising micro-swings off the Asian low, pressing session high.
Early London has ground back up to 1.14881 after the pullback held 1.14779, keeping the higher-low chain from the Asian low at 1.14730 intact; the hot euro PPI print is the backdrop for the recovery off overnight lows. Price is now retesting the 1.14914 session high with RSI(14) mid-range at 55 and ATR(14) just 4.4 pips — a compressed, low-range tape.
Support: 1.14779, 1.1473, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14914 session high opens the path to yesterday's 1.14975 prior high
Loss of 1.14779 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.14730 asian low back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled risk that could shift this intraday read
08:16 UTC
Sideways, no intraday trend · RSI 46 · price 1.14844
Range 1.14778-1.14914, lower highs into a flat base.
Asia pushed to 1.14914 and was rejected; the London open dipped to 1.14778 three times and held, leaving a flat base while highs step down from 1.14914 to the 1.14872 london high. Price is back at 1.14844 with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) around 4 pips — a compressed early-London range as retreating US yields and softer oil offset the post-Fed dollar strength.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14738
Resistance: 1.14872, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14872 london high, then 1.14914 asian high, invalidates the range read
Loss of the 1.14778 session low base exposes 1.14738 asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled risk that could break this range
07:46 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a tight range · RSI 42 · price 1.14808
Lower highs off 1.14914, base holding 1.14778.
Early London extended the Asian bid to a session high of 1.14914 — helped by the hot euro-area PPI beat — before fading back into a 1.14778–1.14856 band with a chain of lower highs. RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips: compressed, mid-session, nothing structural in play yet.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14728, 1.1467
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14856 breaks the lower highs and re-opens 1.14914
Loss of the 1.14778 session low exposes the asian low at 1.14728
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT could reset this range
07:31 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into London · RSI 42 · price 1.14784
Intraday range 1.1478–1.1491, capped by lower highs.
Asia pushed to 1.14914 then handed it all back; the London open probe to the 1.14856 session high was rejected inside one bar and price is back on the 1.14778 session low with RSI(14) near 42 and price under EMA20. Two-way chop since the hawkish Fed, with the firm EZ PPI beat giving dips a floor in the mid-1.14s.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14736, 1.1467
Resistance: 1.14856, 1.14914
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14856 session high re-opens the 1.14914 asia high
Loss of the 1.14778 session low exposes 1.14736 asia low
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT falls in the next bar period and can break this range
07:16 UTC
Sideways, London push faded · RSI 46 · price 1.14816
Lower highs off 1.14914 inside yesterday's range.
Asia held a tight 1.14735–1.14800 band before the London open pushed to a session high of 1.14914, where the move was rejected and price has since built lower highs back to 1.14816, just under the ema20. Hot German PPI is cushioning EUR but the pair is still capped well below 1.1500, and ATR(14) at ~3.2 pips shows compressed intraday ranges.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14735, 1.1467
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14914 re-opens the 1.14975 prior high
Loss of the 1.14778 session low exposes the 1.14735 asia low
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT can reset this range read
Asia ground higher off 1.14728 into an early-London high at 1.14914, where the advance stalled and price slipped back to 1.14778 before stabilising at 1.14832, right on the EMA20. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR(14) is a thin 3.3 pips — the pair is still pinned well below 1.1500 with the post-Fed dollar bid consolidating as softer oil pulls yields off highs.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14827, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Reclaim and 15m close above the 1.14914 asia high re-opens the prior day hi at 1.14975
Loss of the 1.14778 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.14728 asia low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT is the nearest catalyst that could break this tight range
Asia leg to 1.14914 fading; contained 1.14778-1.14914.
Asia ground higher to 1.14914 in the 04:00 GMT hour then rejected, unwinding into the 50-61.8% retracement of that leg where price is now stalling below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47. The softer dollar tone as WTI slipped is behind the overnight lift; the 06:00 GMT German PPI print barely moved the tape, leaving a tight 1.14778-1.14831 coil into the European open. ATR(14) around 3 pips — ranges are compressed.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14738
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14778 session low confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.14738 asia low
Reclaim of 1.14914 asia high re-engages the overnight leg toward the 1.14975 ny high
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT lands just after the European open and can reset this intraday read
06:31 UTC
Mild intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 50 · price 1.14793
Lower highs off 1.14914 inside a 1.1473-1.1491 band.
Asia squeezed 15 pips off 1.14761 to a session high at 1.14914 before fading back through EMA20 into the pre-London hours, leaving a chain of lower highs at 1.14852 and 1.14821. German PPI at 06:00 GMT produced no visible reaction, price back at 1.14793 with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR(14) just 2.9 pips.
Support: 1.14778, 1.14761, 1.14732
Resistance: 1.14852, 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14914 session high would negate the lower-high sequence and re-expose 1.14975 prior day hi
Failure to hold the 1.14761 swing low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.14732 range floor
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT lands in the first London hour and can reset this range read
Lower highs off 1.14914 inside a 1.1467-1.14975 consolidation.
Asia session ground up from the 1.14761 swing low to an asia high at 1.14914 by 04:15 UTC, then rejected and gave back nearly all of it into the London open, price now back at 1.14794 and under EMA20. Chain of lower highs from 1.14914 with RSI(14) back to neutral near 49; ATR(14) only ~3 pips, so ranges are thin ahead of German PPI.
Support: 1.14761, 1.14735, 1.1467
Resistance: 1.14845, 1.14914
What it said to watch
Close below 1.14761 swing low confirms a lower low and puts 1.14735 asia low in play
Reclaim of 1.14845 lower high would break the lower-high chain and re-expose 1.14914
German PPI (06:00 GMT) and Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) land inside the next bars and could reset this range read
Asian range broken above, push to 1.14914 rejected, price back under EMA20.
Late-Asia/pre-London bid took price out of the 1.14728–1.14822 Asian range to a session high at 1.14914, but the move was rejected and the last five bars have unwound the whole leg, closing back below the EMA20 at 1.14835 with RSI(14) back to neutral near 47. Structure is still a higher low above 1.14761, but 1.14914 is a lower high against yesterday's NY peak at 1.14975, and ATR(14) at ~3 pips shows thin pre-London ranges.
Support: 1.14761, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14835, 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Eurozone/German PPI at 06:00 UTC lands on the next bar — first London bars will define the range
Failure to hold 1.14761 confirms a lower low and reopens the asia low at 1.14728
Reclaiming the EMA20 and a close above the 1.14914 session high re-engages the 1.14975 prior high
05:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY high · RSI 51 · price 1.1481
24h consolidation 1.14728–1.14975; asia leg up rejected at 1.14914.
Asia session lifted EURUSD off 1.14761 to 1.14914 before that leg stalled; the last five bars have faded to 1.14810, back under the ema20 at 1.14832 with RSI(14) flat near 50. Structure stays a 1.14728–1.14975 consolidation with lower highs since yesterday's prior high at 1.14975, ATR(14) just 3.6 pips into the London open.
Support: 1.14761, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14832, 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Eurozone PPI at 06:00 UTC lands immediately after this bar — the near-term catalyst for the range
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.14832 and 1.14914 asia high would extend the asia leg
Loss of the 1.14761 asia low puts the 1.14728 range low back in play
Asian range top broken, shallow pullback to EMA20.
Asia session ground through the Asian range top at 1.14822 and tagged 1.14914 before easing back onto the EMA20 near 1.14836, consistent with the softer-USD tone as WTI and US yields backed off post-Fed highs. RSI(14) at 55 and ATR(14) of just 3 pips — thin, low-range conditions with the session high untested and the prior day high at 1.14975 still well above.
Support: 1.14836, 1.14822, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14822 would negate the Asian range-top break and put the asia low at 1.14728 back in play
A close above 1.14914 session high opens the path to the prior day high at 1.14975
Eurozone PPI at 06:00 UTC plus the BoJ decision land within the next bars and can reset intraday ranges around the London open
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into London · RSI 64 · price 1.14865
Asia range broken to the upside, higher highs / higher lows.
Pre-London grind higher pushed EURUSD through the asia hi at 1.14801 and the 1.14836 break level, printing a session high at 1.14914 before a shallow fade to 1.14865, RSI(14) near 64. The leg extends the recovery seen as softer WTI pulled US yields off post-Fed highs; ATR(14) is only ~3 pips, so this is a low-volatility drift rather than an impulse.
Support: 1.14836, 1.14801, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14836 break level would put the asia low at 1.14728 back in play and negate the range break read
A close above the 1.14914 session high opens the path to the prior day hi at 1.14975
Eurozone PPI at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC land within the next few bars and could reset the intraday range
Higher highs / higher lows off the Asian low, above the broken Asian range high.
Price ground out of the Asian range through the 1.14822 range high and up to a session high of 1.14914 in the first hours of European trade, with the 1.1490 area — the daily Ichimoku boundary flagged in the macro read — now acting as the immediate cap. Last four bars stalled in a 3-pip coil just under it, RSI(14) ~66 and ATR(14) only 3.4 pips, so the move is extended but not stretched; the 1.14836 breakout lvl is the first structural reference below.
Support: 1.14836, 1.1478, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.14914 session high opens the path back to the 1.14975 prior day hi
Loss of 1.14836 breakout lvl would put the sequence of higher lows back inside the 1.14780 range mid
Failure to hold above the Asian low at 1.14728 would negate the breakout read
Eurozone PPI at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC land inside the next few bars and could reset this range
Higher highs/higher lows since the Asian low, at session highs.
Late Asia has ground steadily higher off the 1.14728 Asian low, printing a clean HH/HL chain and breaking the 1.14780–1.14820 overnight congestion to a session high at 1.14914, with rising support drawn off the 1.14728 and 1.14795 lows intact. Price is now holding above the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's NY decline as softer WTI and easing US yields trim part of the post-Fed dollar bid; RSI(14) at ~71 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) ~3.2 pips.
Support: 1.14795, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14914, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.14795 breaks the higher-low chain and voids the rising support read
Acceptance above 1.14914 leaves the prior day high at 1.14975 as the next reference
Eurozone PPI at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC land within the next few bars and can reset this intraday structure
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into prior high · RSI 71 · price 1.14908
Higher lows off the Asia low, overnight range top broken.
Asia session built a chain of higher lows off 1.14728 and pushed through the overnight range top at 1.14836, with the last closed bar at 1.14908 and RSI(14) around 71. The recovery follows softer US yields and WTI trimming part of the post-Fed dollar advance; yesterday's prior high at 1.14975 is the next area to watch for rejection or break, ATR(14) just 3.1 pips so ranges are thin ahead of London.
Support: 1.14836, 1.14761, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500, 1.1505
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.14975 prior high opens the 1.15000 psych level and the 1.15050 pivot cap
Loss of the 1.14836 range top on a close would break the higher-low chain and put the 1.14761 asia pivot back in play
Eurozone/German PPI at 06:00 UTC and the imminent BoJ decision can reset this intraday structure inside the next few bars
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 74 · price 1.14899
Higher highs and higher lows off the overnight base, prior consolidation top cleared.
Asia session has stair-stepped out of the 1.1473–1.1484 overnight consolidation, with the last four bars closing on their highs at 1.14899 as softer US yields trimmed part of the post-Fed dollar gain. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but consistent with the impulse; the NY high at 1.14975 and the 1.14954 prior high are the next reference points, while the 1.14836 breakout level is the first area to watch for a retest.
Support: 1.14836, 1.14761, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14836 breakout level would put the asia low at 1.14761 back in play and neutralise the breakout read
A close through 1.14954 prior high exposes the 1.14975 ny high
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC and the imminent BoJ decision can reprice the dollar inside the next few bars
Failure to hold 1.14728 session low would confirm a lower low for the 24h window
Higher lows since Asian low, Asian range top broken.
Late Asia has broken the 1.14822 Asian range top on a chain of higher lows off 1.14728, with price now at 1.14864 and RSI(14) near 68 — hot but not extreme. The recovery follows yesterday's NY pullback from 1.14975, where softer US yields and a weaker WTI trimmed part of the post-Fed dollar gain; ATR(14) is a thin 3 pips into the London handover.
Support: 1.14822, 1.14764, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14915, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Sustained trade back below 1.14822 would put the range break back into the Asian range and break the higher-lows chain
1.14915 then the 1.14975 ny high are the next areas to monitor for rejection or break
Loss of 1.14728 asian low confirms a lower low on this timeframe
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and the BoJ outcome land within the next bars and can reset the intraday range
03:46 UTC
Shallow uptrend off the Asian low, momentum modest · RSI 68 · price 1.14834
Higher lows inside a tight Asia range, testing range top.
Asia session has ground out a chain of higher lows off 1.14728 and is now pressing the session high at 1.14844, with price above both EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 68. The move retraces roughly 40% of yesterday's London-NY slide from the 1.14975 day high, and follows the yield-led dollar pullback flagged in the digest; ATR(14) is only ~3 pips, so ranges are compressed pre-London.
Support: 1.1479, 1.14728, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14844, 1.14905, 1.14975
What it said to watch
15m close above the 1.14844 session high opens the path to the 1.14905 prior high, then the 1.14975 day high
Loss of the ema20 near 1.1479 and then the 1.14728 asia low breaks the higher-low chain
BoJ decision pre-London is the main USD-index swing risk for this range
German PPI at 06:00 UTC lands within the next bar block and could break the compression
Higher lows off the asia low, testing overnight range top.
Asia has ground higher off the 1.14728 asia low and the latest bar cleared the overnight range top to print 1.14836, leaving the 1.14842 prior high as the immediate cap and the 1.14975 ny high as the next reference. RSI(14) near 66 with ATR(14) only ~3.6 pips — the grind up is happening in thin post-FOMC conditions, with the euro still stabilising after the hawkish Fed hike.
Support: 1.14761, 1.14728
Resistance: 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.14761 recent low returns price inside the overnight range
Rejection at the 1.14842 prior high without follow-through would mark a false break of the range top
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC is the first data test of the asia low
03:16 UTC
Sideways, drift higher within range · RSI 57 · price 1.14792
Asia range inside NY pullback, higher lows since 1.14732.
Rejection from the 1.14975 ny high during NY hours gave way to a 1.14732–1.14822 range that Asia has respected all session, price closing mid-range at 1.14792 with a string of asia rising lows off the range low. ATR(14) at just 2.9 pips and RSI(14) near 57 show compression, not direction; the 1.14842 prior high caps the upside of the pullback structure.
Support: 1.14732, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14822, 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14822 session high puts 1.14842 prior high back in play
Loss of 1.14732 range low breaks the asia rising lows and exposes the 1.14680 swing low
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC is the first scheduled risk to this compressed range
Asian range inside Thursday's NY pullback, higher lows since 1.14728.
Asia session has ranged 1.14738-1.14822 after Thursday's NY hours faded the 1.14975 prior day high back to 1.14728, with price now grinding at the upper third of that range above EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) is compressed at ~2.8 pips and RSI(14) near 58 — no extreme, no break; the euro's post-Fed stabilisation is showing up as drift, not direction.
Support: 1.14738, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.14822, 1.1485, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14822 asia high extends the range toward the 1.14850 swing high
A close below the 1.14738 asia low exposes the 1.14700 swing low and invalidates the higher-low chain
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC lands within the next few bars and is the first scheduled catalyst able to break this compression
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT could reset the intraday range
02:46 UTC
Mild uptrend within a tight range · RSI 61 · price 1.14812
Higher lows off 1.1473, range top being tested.
After the NY session faded from the prior day high at 1.14975, price spent the late-NY and Asia hours compressed between 1.1473 and 1.1480, and is now grinding into the session high at 1.14822 with RSI(14) at 61. ATR(14) has collapsed to under 3 pips — typical Asia-hours contraction, with the ema20 at 1.1478 holding as the near pivot.
Support: 1.1478, 1.1473, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14822, 1.14832, 1.14975
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.14832 prior high extends the Asia range break; failure there keeps the range read intact
Loss of 1.1473 range low breaks the higher-low chain built through Asia
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC is the first scheduled catalyst and could break this compression
02:31 UTC
Mild intraday uptrend off the overnight low, low energy · RSI 56 · price 1.14797
Higher lows inside the upper half of the prior NY range.
Asia session is grinding higher off the 1.14728 asia low in a chain of rising lows, after NY rejected the 1.14975 prior high and supply capped rallies around 1.1485. RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) just 3 pips — thin mid-Tokyo conditions with the 1.14822 session high still intact.
Support: 1.14764, 1.14728, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14822, 1.1485, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14822 session high puts 1.1485 ny supply then 1.14975 prior high back in play
Loss of 1.14728 asia low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the 1.1468 london low
BoJ decision during Tokyo hours can reprice the dollar broadly and override this intraday structure
Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC and German/EZ PPI 06:00 UTC land inside the next session
02:16 UTC
Grinding higher inside a tight range · RSI 65 · price 1.14816
Asian range at highs, higher lows since late NY.
EURUSD is pressing the top of a very tight Asian range, printing a session high at 1.14822 after a chain of higher lows off 1.14738 through the Asia hours; ATR(14) at under 3 pips shows how compressed the last six hours have been. The wider frame is still the recovery off the post-Fed slide — 1.14975 remains the NY high and the unbroken cap, with 1.14858 the prior swing in between.
Support: 1.14764, 1.14738, 1.14682
Resistance: 1.14822, 1.14858, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14822 opens the retest of 1.14858 prior swing, then the 1.14975 ny high
Loss of 1.14738 asia low breaks the higher low sequence and returns price into the late-NY range
BoJ decision ahead of the London open, then German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC — either can end this compression quickly
02:01 UTC
Sideways, drift higher off Asian lows · RSI 56 · price 1.14793
Tight range after NY rejection; higher lows into Asia.
After the NY-session rejection at the 1.14975 day high, EUR/USD spent the London-NY transition unwinding to 1.1468 and has since compressed into a 1.1473–1.1481 band through Asia, price now 1.14793 with RSI(14) mid-range at 56. The post-Fed dollar bid has stalled intraday, and Asian hours have produced marginally higher lows off the range floor without testing the asia high convincingly. ATR(14) near 2.8 pips confirms how thin the current session range is.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1481 asia high opens the path back to the 1.14842 ny swing
Loss of the 1.1473 range floor confirms a lower-low and puts 1.1468 ny low back in play
BoJ decision in Tokyo hours and German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC can break this compression quickly
After NY faded the 1.14975 high, price has spent the Asia session compressing into 1.1473–1.1481, with a chain of higher lows off 1.14728 lifting the last few bars back to the 1.14810 asia high. RSI(14) at 59 and ATR(14) at just 2.6 pips — Tokyo-morning conditions, no expansion yet, with price holding above both ema20 and ema50.
Support: 1.14763, 1.14728, 1.14682
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.14858, 1.14975
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.14810 asia high extends the range toward the 1.14858 ny swing
Loss of 1.14728 asia low breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens the 1.14682 swing low
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC is the first scheduled catalyst capable of breaking this range
01:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY fade · RSI 60 · price 1.14797
Tight Asian range under the NY high, higher lows since the 1.14730 base.
EUR/USD spiked to the 1.14975 ny high early in NY hours as softer WTI pulled US yields off their highs, then bled back and has spent the Asia session compressed between 1.14730 and the 1.14810 range top. Price is sitting at the range top with ATR down to ~3.6 pips and RSI(14) near 60 — no directional structure in play.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14810 range top opens the 1.14842 prior high and then 1.14975
Loss of the 1.14730 range floor puts the 1.14680 swing low back in focus and ends the higher-low sequence
BoJ decision pre-London and German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC can break this low-ATR compression
01:16 UTC
Sideways after NY fade, mild upward drift · RSI 57 · price 1.14796
12-hour range 1.1473–1.1481 with slightly higher lows.
NY session topped at 1.14975 and faded straight back to 1.14731, and price has been locked in a 1.1473–1.1481 range through the Asian session, with only a mild sequence of higher lows and ATR down to ~3.6 pips. Last bars are pressing the range top at 1.14806 after the oil-led yield pullback trimmed post-Fed dollar gains; nothing structural in play below 1.14806 / above 1.14738.
Support: 1.14738, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.1490, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14806 breaks the range top and re-opens 1.14900
Failure to hold 1.14738 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.14680 swing low
BoJ decision ahead of the London open is the near-term volatility source for this range
01:01 UTC
Flat, momentum drained after NY fade · RSI 57 · price 1.14775
Tight Asian range under a lower-high sequence.
NY hours faded the 1.14975 prior day hi and price has since compressed into a 1.1473–1.1481 band, with the early Asia session so far holding inside it. Rejection at the 1.14806 asia high on the last three attempts, RSI(14) mid-range near 57 and ATR(14) down to about 4 pips — no structural setup in play.
Support: 1.14728, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.1485, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 asia high would break the range compression and put 1.14850 swing high back in play
Loss of the 1.14728 range floor exposes 1.14680 swing low
German/EZ PPI at 06:00 UTC is the first scheduled driver capable of breaking this range
Lower highs from 1.14975 remain intact while price stays capped under 1.14806
00:46 UTC
Flat, intraday drift after NY fade · RSI 55 · price 1.14787
Tight Asian range inside a lower-high sequence off 1.14975.
NY session topped at the 1.14975 ny high — the recovery leg helped by the oil-led pullback in US yields that trimmed post-Fed dollar gains — then faded through the afternoon and has coiled between the 1.14728 asia low and the 1.14806 asia high for roughly eight hours. ATR(14) is down to ~3 pips with RSI(14) mid-range near 55; price is pinned on EMA20/EMA50, so there is no structure in play until one side of the Asian range gives.
Support: 1.14728, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 asia high reopens the 1.14850s and the 1.14975 ny high
Loss of the 1.14728 asia low puts the 1.14680 ny low back in focus
BoJ decision ahead of the London open and Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC are the vol sources that would break this range
00:31 UTC
Sideways after NY pullback, momentum flat · RSI 56 · price 1.14784
Balanced range; lower high vs 1.14975 ny high, base holding 1.14730.
After the NY session rejected 1.14975 — the corrective pop that followed the oil-led easing in US yields — EURUSD bled back and has spent the last eight hours pinned in a 1.14730–1.14806 band, with the Asia session so far inside it. ATR(14) is down to ~3 pips and RSI(14) mid-range at 56; price is sitting on flat EMA20/EMA50 around 1.14765, so there is no directional structure in play right now.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1467
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 swing high would break the descending cap off the ny high and re-open 1.1485–1.1490
Loss of the 1.14730 session low would confirm a lower low and expose the 1.14670 london low
Thin Asia liquidity is exaggerating the compression; BoJ decision ahead of the London open plus US Industrial Production later could reset the dollar tone and this range read
00:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY fade · RSI 43 · price 1.14742
Lower highs off 1.14975, then tight Asia consolidation 1.14730-1.14806.
NY session rejected 1.14975 and bled back to the 1.14730-1.14806 band, where the Asia session has coiled with ATR(14) down to ~2.6 pips and price pinned just under EMA20 near 1.14762. Sequence of lower highs from the NY high stands, but nothing structural is in play at 1.14742 — dollar still holding most of its post-Fed gains.
Support: 1.14728, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14848, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14806 ends the Asia consolidation and breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.14728 session low exposes 1.14680 prior low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and the BoJ decision ahead of the London open are the next volatility triggers for this range
00:01 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY fade · RSI 51 · price 1.14764
Lower highs from 1.14975, coiling above 1.14730.
NY session topped at 1.14975 just after the open and faded through the afternoon; since London-NY transition price has coiled in a 1.14730–1.14806 band with EUR still heavy near one-and-a-half-month lows on post-Fed dollar strength. Current bar sits at 1.14764, right on the 50% retracement of the 1.14557–1.14975 leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR(14) compressed to ~3 pips in thin post-NY liquidity.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.14806 range top would end the coil and put 1.14842 prior high back in focus
Loss of the 1.14730 range floor confirms continuation of the lower-high sequence toward 1.14680 prior low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and the BoJ decision ahead of the London open can break this thin-liquidity range on the next session