15:26 UTC
Downtrend resumed, momentum accelerating lower · RSI 32 · price 1.14742
Lower highs since the 1.1711 august high, fresh lower low after the range break.
Four weeks of drift from the 1.17112 august high turned into a clean range break this week: the 1.1566–1.1580 floor gave way after the Fed's 25bp hike and sharply higher dot path, and price is now trading below both EMA20 and the EMA50 swing filter near 1.1570. The last three sessions carved a fresh six-week low at 1.14545 with RSI(14) near 32, the weakest daily reading since late June. Prior peaks at 1.16537 and 1.17112 stand as the reference lower-high chain, while 1.1400 round number and the 1.1353 july low mark the next structural shelves below.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1400, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1570, 1.16537, 1.17112
What it said to watch
- Failure to hold the 1.14545 six-week low confirms the lower-low extension toward the 1.1400 round number
- A daily close back above 1.1570 (ema50) would invalidate the range break read
- US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep and Lagarde Mon/Tue are the main event risk for this structure
- A higher low above 1.1456 while RSI holds above 30 would stall the current leg