21:01 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off 16-month low · RSI 37 · price 1.12382
LH/LL chain from Aug high; basing 1.1113–1.1285 since early Oct.
EURUSD has been in a two-month downtrend from the 1.1711 August high, a lower-high/lower-low sequence that accelerated after the mid-September breakdown, with price well below a falling EMA(50). Wednesday's 1.1113 print, a 16m low, drew a two-day rebound as an AI-driven USD pullback outweighed hot US PPI and retail data, putting the pair on track for its first weekly gain in six weeks. Friday's high stalled at the ema20 near 1.1269, keeping price inside the early-October consolidation between 1.1113 and the oct 1 high at 1.1285, while RSI set a higher low against the lower price low.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1113, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285, 1.1341
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the oct 1 high at 1.1285 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct decline at 1.1341
- Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number puts the 16m low at 1.1113 back in focus; a break there exposes the 1.1000 psych level
- Rejection at the ema20 around 1.1269 keeps the downtrend read intact
- US housing data Tue and S&P Global PMIs Fri could extend or reverse the USD pullback behind this week's bounce