EUR/USD has rolled over decisively, breaking below the multi-month 1.1400 floor to a fresh 1-year low near 1.1324 on hawkish Fed-versus-cautious-ECB divergence. Price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50 with structure firmly lower-high/lower-low, though RSI is oversold and the latest bar bounced off the 1.1325 swing low. The broken 1.1400 floor and the 1.1361 break level now stand as overhead supply.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1361, 1.1400
What it said to watch
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close back above 1.1400 invalidates the range-break read
Failure to hold 1.1300 confirms downside continuation toward fresh lows
EUR/USD broke its multi-month 1.1400-1.1800 range to a fresh ~1-year low near 1.1325, driven by hawkish-Fed vs cautious-ECB divergence. Structure is cleanly lower-high, lower-low with price pinned beneath both EMAs and ATR expanding as the decline accelerates. RSI is oversold but the broken 1.1400 floor now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1325 opens the path toward 1.1300
H4 close back above 1.1400 would neutralise the range-break read
US Core PCE (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending into oversold · RSI 32 · price 1.13482
Successive lower highs and lower lows, fresh 1-year low.
EURUSD has broken decisively below the long-held 1.1400 floor and printed a fresh one-year low at 1.1324, with price tracking well under both EMA20 and EMA50 on a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The leg lower is fed by the US-EU growth divergence and hawkish-Fed repricing flagged in the macro digest, though RSI(14) is now oversold and the last bar saw a recovery off the low. Former range floor 1.1400 now caps any bounce.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.1325 opens the path toward 1.1300
Reclaim of 1.1400 would neutralise the range-break read
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month break below the long-held 1.1400 range floor, now into one-year lows at 1.1324. The leg is driven by the US-EU growth divergence theme and a hawkish-Fed repricing; price holds well below EMA20 and EMA50. RSI near 31 flags oversold conditions but momentum has yet to stall.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of 1.1324 opens the 1.1300 zone
Reclaim of 1.1400 needed to neutralise the range break
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 31 · price 1.13414
Lower highs and lower lows below broken 1.1400.
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since the mid-window break of 1.1400 — a level that capped EUR for months and now sits as overhead resistance. The slide to one-year lows near 1.1337 is USD-led, with hawkish-Fed repricing dominating after the FOMC dot shift; ATR(14) near 197 pips shows an expanding, trending regime rather than compression. RSI near 30 flags an oversold condition into the move's extension.
Support: 1.1337, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1400 would neutralise the breakout and challenge the lower-high structure
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the key directional risk for this read
Failure to hold 1.1337 confirms continuation toward the 1.1300 psych level
EURUSD remains in a clean downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows over the last two weeks as USD strength on hawkish-Fed repricing dominates. The break below 1.1400 — support since mid-2025 — accelerated the slide to fresh one-year lows near 1.1337, with price holding well below both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI sits in oversold territory, flagging snap-back risk on any USD pullback, but structure stays firmly bearish.
Support: 1.13368, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14655
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1400 would neutralise the breakout and reopen the 1.1465 swing high
Failure to hold 1.1337 confirms continuation toward the 1.1300 round number
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read — a soft print risks an oversold bounce
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows into one-year lows around 1.1352 after the 1.1400 pivot gave way — a USD-led move on hawkish-Fed repricing and softer EZ PMIs. ATR is elevated and price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50, but RSI near 29 flags an oversold, stretched condition. 1.1400 now acts as overhead resistance on any corrective bounce.
Support: 1.1351, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.1350 confirms continuation toward the 1.13 handle
Reclaim of 1.1400 would neutralise the breakout and open a corrective bounce
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 29 · price 1.13524
Lower highs / lower lows, one-year lows.
EURUSD remains in a clean multi-week downtrend, printing fresh one-year lows near 1.1350 after the 1.1400 pivot gave way on broad USD strength tied to hawkish-Fed repricing and softer EZ PMIs. Price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) holding elevated, signalling an extended, expanding move rather than compression. RSI(14) is in oversold territory, so the slide is stretched even as structure points lower.
Support: 1.1350, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.1350 opens the 1.13 handle
Reclaim of 1.1400 would neutralise the recent breakout
Core PCE on Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Persistent H4 downtrend: EUR/USD has carved successive lower highs and lower lows and sliced through the pivotal 1.1400 former support — now capping rallies — amid broad USD strength after last week's hawkish FOMC. Price is pressing a fresh swing low at 1.1361 with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked overhead. The 1.1350 SocGen reference and the 1.1300 round number are the next downside markers.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1350, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1400 would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.1361 opens 1.1350 then 1.1300
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs, lower lows; compressing near range lows.
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows after the break of 1.1400 — the former support that has held as a pivot since June 2025. The move is largely a USD-strength story following last week's hawkish FOMC and firm US PMIs, with price now grinding into fresh lows around 1.1361 on contracting ATR. RSI near 33 reflects oversold pressure but no divergence yet against the latest leg lower.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1350, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1400 invalidates the breakout read
Failure to hold 1.1361 opens the path to 1.1350 then the 1.13 handle
German IFO today 08:00 UTC and Thu US Core PCE could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending to lows · RSI 31 · price 1.13776
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh 11-month lows.
EURUSD has trended steadily lower across the window, slicing through 1.1400 to print fresh 11-month lows near 1.1377 on broad USD strength and the soft German services PMI miss. Structure is cleanly bearish — lower highs and lower lows — with price pinned below EMA20 and EMA50. ATR has eased as the pair grinds along the lows, but momentum remains firmly to the downside.
Support: 1.1350, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.1470
What it said to watch
Recovery and close above 1.1430 would ease the downside pressure toward 1.1470
Failure to hold 1.1350 opens the path into the 1.13 handle
German IFO (Wed) and US Core PCE (Thu) could materially shift this read
EURUSD remains in a clean multi-day downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows as broad USD strength and the soft German services PMI undercut the pair. Price has broken the 1.1400 round prior level and is pressing the 1.13755 swing low, with both EMAs capping overhead. ATR is elevated, consistent with an extending move rather than compression.
Support: 1.13755, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.13755 swing low opens the path toward the 1.1350 next support
An H4 close back above 1.1400 round prior level would stall the lower-low sequence
German IFO Wed and US Core PCE Thu could materially shift this read