Lower highs from 1.1399 and higher lows from 1.1359, compressing into a 1.1371–1.1380 band.
The London-session day high at 1.1399 came after the German IFO beat, but it faded as the hawkish-Fed USD bid took over. The pair tested the 1.1359 day low twice during NY hours, and a 16:15 UTC spike high at 1.1391 was rejected. Early Asia session is now pinned in a 3-pip band between the 1.1371 swing low and the 1.1380 late high, with the lower highs and higher lows lines converging and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 late high opens the 1.1391 spike high and the lower highs line; a push through the 1.1399 day high tests the 1.1400 reclaim area
Failure to hold the 1.1371 swing low breaks the higher lows line and reopens the 1.1359 day low
EZ GDP at 07:00 GMT, Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could break the compression
23:16 UTC
Sideways within a range after a failed IFO spike · RSI 54 · price 1.13772
Range 1.1359–1.1399 with lower highs and a flat base at 1.1359.
The German IFO beat lifted EUR/USD to the 1.1399 IFO high at 08:00 GMT. USD demand after hawkish Fedspeak faded the move, and the double low at 1.1359 held at 13:15 and 18:00 GMT. The 16:15 bounce stalled at 1.1391, a lower high, and price is now compressing around 1.1377 in thin early-Asia trade, near the 50% of the IFO fade, between the 1.1370 ny base and the 1.1380 NY close high.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1370 ny base puts the 1.1359 double low back in play; a break there confirms a lower-low
A close above the 1.1380 NY close high points to a retest of the 1.1391 lower high and the lower-highs trendline
A reclaim of the 1.1399 IFO high invalidates the lower-highs read
EZ GfK (06:00 GMT) and GDP (07:00 GMT) in the London open, then Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, micro higher lows · RSI 56 · price 1.13768
1.1359–1.1391 range since mid-London, compressing 1.1370–1.1380.
The German IFO beat lifted London to a 1.1399 session high, but hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD dragged price to a 1.1359 double low, and the NY spike was rejected at 1.1391. Since then price has printed higher lows off the trendline in thin post-NY trade, capped at the 1.1380 late NY high and sitting near the 50% fib of the London drop.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 late NY high opens the 1.1391 spike high, then 1.1399 session high
Loss of the 1.1370 higher low breaks the trendline and brings the 1.1359 double low back into play
German GfK (06:00 GMT) and GDP (07:00 GMT) around London open could break the Asian compression
NY range 1.1359–1.1391 with a double low; small higher low into thin post-close trade.
The IFO beat lifted EUR/USD to the 1.1399 ifo high early in London, but the hawkish-Fed USD bid unwound it into a double low at 1.1359 during NY hours, with a later rejection at the 1.1391 spike high. Price now sits near the 50% fib at 1.1379, boxed between the 1.1371 post-ny low and the 1.1380 post-ny high in thin post-close trade, still inside the Asian range.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 post-ny high reopens the 1.1391 spike high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1371 post-ny low returns focus to the 1.1359 double low
Failure to hold the 1.1359 double low confirms a lower low for the session
GfK and German GDP from 06:00 UTC, then Williams at 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Sideways after London selloff, grinding off lows · RSI 56 · price 1.13773
NY range 1.1359–1.1380 with higher lows since 18:00 UTC.
The London high at 1.1399 gave way to a USD-driven slide on the hawkish Fed chorus and US claims beats. NY then held a range, with ny lows at 1.1359 tested twice and the 16:15 UTC spike high at 1.1391 rejected. Early Asia is holding a higher low near 1.1371, with price pinned under the late NY high at 1.1380, around the 50% fib retrace of the London drop.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the late NY high at 1.1380 (50% fib) opens the 1.1391 spike high
Loss of the 1.1371 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.1359 ny lows back in play
Close below 1.1359 voids the double bottom and extends the day's lower-low sequence
Asian range is thin at ~4 pips ATR; EZ GfK and GDP from 06:00 GMT could set the London direction
22:01 UTC
Sideways, lower highs after London high · RSI 54 · price 1.13767
Range 1.1359–1.1399, highs compressing, lows holding.
Rollover is quiet at 1.1377 after the London high at 1.1399 failed and two NY probes found support at the 1.1359 NY lows, in a USD firmed by hawkish Fedspeak and US data beats. The mid-NY spike high at 1.1391 was rejected, and the late-NY high at 1.1380 is capping. Price sits at the 50% fib of the London high-to-NY low drop, with the late-NY low at 1.1371 below.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 late-NY high and 50% fib opens the 1.1391 spike high and the lower-highs trendline
Break of the 1.1359 NY lows extends the daily low, with 1.1340 the next support in focus
EZ GfK and GDP around London open, then Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, could shift this read
Thin rollover liquidity keeps ATR near 4–5 pips until the Asian range develops
21:46 UTC
Range after London selloff, grinding up off lows · RSI 56 · price 1.13762
1.1359–1.1399 day range; higher lows off 1.1359 since 18:00 UTC.
London sold off from the 1.1399 London high into a 1.1359–1.1362 floor. That floor held four times through NY as hawkish Fedspeak and US claims beats kept USD bid, and the 16:15 UTC spike to 1.1391 met rejection. Price is drifting at 1.1376 in thin rollover trade on higher lows, just above the ema20 and between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London drop, capped by the late-NY high at 1.1380.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Close below the late-NY lows at 1.1371 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1359 day low back in play
A fifth test failing at the 1.1359 day low marks a fresh leg lower out of the range
Close above the 1.1380 late-NY high opens the 1.1391 spike high and then the 1.1399 London high
Rollover liquidity is thin, so early Asia prints may overstate moves
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC Friday, could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, lower highs · RSI 56 · price 1.1376
The German IFO beat drove a London spike to the 1.1399 day high, which was rejected as the dollar bid resumed. Price has since held a 1.1359–1.1391 range, with the session low defended twice in NY and the 1.1391 NY spike high marking a lower high. Now mid-range at 1.1376 in thin Asia-open trade, just above the late NY low and capped by the late NY high at 1.1380, near the 50% fib of the day's sell-off.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 late NY high and the 50% fib puts the 1.1391 NY spike high and the lower-highs trendline in play
Failure to hold the 1.1359 session low confirms a lower low beneath the equal lows
Slip back under the 1.1371 late NY low returns price to the range base
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Sideways after London selloff, higher lows since 18:00 UTC · RSI 56 · price 1.13751
1.1359–1.1391 NY range, higher-low chain into the close.
The IFO-driven London high at 1.1399 faded as the USD bid on hawkish Fedspeak and US claims beats. The day low at 1.1359 held twice in NY, and the 16:15 UTC ny spike to 1.1391 was rejected. Since 18:00 UTC price has built higher lows. It is now holding near the 38.2% retrace of the London high–day low drop, capped at the 1.1380 late high as thin rollover/Asia trade begins.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 late high extends the higher-low chain toward the 1.1391 ny spike
Break of the 1.1371 late hl and trendline returns focus to the 1.1359 day low double bottom
Failure to hold 1.1359 marks a fresh session low and ends the double bottom read
EZ GfK/GDP (06:00–07:00 GMT), Williams 09:15 UTC and US Durables 12:30 UTC Friday could reset the range
21:01 UTC
Sideways, lower highs from London peak · RSI 56 · price 1.13771
Range 1.1359–1.1399, equal lows, compressing late NY.
London spiked to a 1.1399 day high on the German IFO beat, then faded as hawkish Fedspeak kept the USD bid. NY printed equal lows at 1.1359 and a rejected lower high at 1.1391. After NY close, price is compressing in a 1.1371–1.1378 micro range near the 50–61.8% retrace of the NY drop.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 micro high, with the 61.8% NY drop fib reclaimed, opens the 1.1391 ny high
Lower-highs trendline from the 1.1399 day high caps rallies until broken
Loss of the 1.1371 micro low returns focus to the 1.1359 equal lows; a break there exposes 1.1340
Fri EZ GfK 06:00 GMT and GDP 07:00 GMT around London open could shift this read
20:46 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 1.13712
Lower highs 1.1399/1.1391/1.1378 over flat 1.1359 lows.
The London high at 1.1399 gave way to a slide into the 1.1359 day low during NY. The 16:15 UTC spike to 1.1391 was rejected as hawkish Fedspeak and US claims beats kept the dollar bid. Price is now compressing near 1.1371 after NY close, between the 1.1378 swing high and the 1.1365 swing low. ATR has shrunk to about 5 pips, and price sits just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1365, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13781, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1378 swing high breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.1391 spike high is next overhead
Thin post-NY liquidity into rollover limits follow-through
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) Friday could reset the London drop retracement read
20:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, basing above 1.1359 · RSI 49 · price 1.1376
Lower highs 1.1399/1.1391, double low at 1.1359, late-NY range 1.1370–1.1378.
London's break of the Asian range high failed at the 1.1399 London high, and hawkish Fedspeak plus firm claims drove a slide to a double low at 1.1359 (13:15 and 18:00 UTC). The NY spike to 1.1391 was rejected, forming a second lower high. Late NY is holding above the 1.1370 ny pivot under a 1.1378 late cap, near the 38–50% zone of the London high-low retracement.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 spike high breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure of the 1.1359 double low confirms a lower-low toward the 1.1340 area
Hold above the 1.1370 ny pivot and a clear of the 1.1378 late cap would extend the London high-low retracement toward 50–61.8%
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 1.13736
Range 1.1359–1.1378 below the London high, false break higher faded.
After the IFO beat, EUR/USD printed the london high at 1.1399. The high faded on broad USD demand, and price has since held a 1.1359–1.1378 range, with the day low defended three times and the 16:15 UTC spike high at 1.1391 a false break of the range top. Late in NY hours, price sits on the 38.2% level of the london high–day low fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.1365, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 range top reopens the 1.1391 spike high and 1.1399 london high
Loss of the 1.1365 swing low and a break of the 1.1359 day low would end the range read
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC Friday could reset the range
19:46 UTC
Intraday down from session high, now ranging · RSI 50 · price 1.13736
Lower highs from 1.1399, flat base at 1.1359; mid-range.
The German IFO beat set the session high at 1.1399, but the move faded through London as the hawkish-Fed dollar bid resumed. The London low at 1.1361 gave way to a double low at 1.1359, tested at 13:15 and again at 18:00 UTC. The 16:15 UTC spike was rejected at a lower high of 1.1391, and late in the NY session price sits mid-range at 1.1374, pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1376, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 double low confirms a lower-low and breaks the range floor
Repeated failure at the 1.1376 intraday cap keeps price compressed in the lower half of the range
Close above the 1.1391 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1399 session high back in play
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC Fri) and US Durables (12:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Range-bound after London selloff, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 1.13715
1.1359–1.1391 range since London; lower high at 1.1391 under the 1.1399 London high.
Late NY, after London close. London rejected the 1.1399 London high just under 1.1400 and sold off on the hawkish-Fed USD bid, then NY built a 1.1359–1.1391 range; the range floor held three times. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 1.1391 range top retraced ~79% of the London drop before failing, leaving a lower high, and price is now back near the 1.1369 Asian low with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 range floor opens the 1.1340 key support flagged in the macro read
Close above the 1.1391 range top and the lower-high line puts the 1.1399 London high and 1.1400 back in play
Sustained trade below the 1.1369 Asian low keeps price in the lower half of the range into Asia session
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC, then US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, ranging off the lows · RSI 54 · price 1.13749
Lower highs from 1.1399, flat lows at 1.1359-61.
The London session high at 1.1399 printed on the IFO beat. USD demand then dragged the pair to a 1.1359-1.1361 triple low, reinforced after the US claims beat. Since then the pair has held a 1.1359-1.1378 range, and the 16:15 UTC spike high at 1.1391 was rejected as a false break. Late in the NY session, price sits at the 38.2% retrace and on EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1378 range top opens the 61.8% fib near 1.1384 and the 1.1391 spike high.
A break of the 1.1359 triple low confirms a lower-low, with 1.1340 key support next below.
The lower-highs trendline from the 1.1399 session high is still capping the NY rebounds.
The Asia session carries no scheduled data. Friday's EZ GfK/GDP and Williams at 09:15 UTC are the next catalysts that could shift this read.
19:01 UTC
Sideways after London-session selloff · RSI 51 · price 1.13701
NY range 1.1359–1.1378 with lower highs from the 1.1391 spike.
The 1.1399 session high set during the German IFO release gave way as the USD bid on strong claims data and hawkish Fedspeak, leaving a 1.1359 double bottom and a NY range capped by the 1.1378 range top, which roughly matches the 50% retrace of that session high move. The 1.1391 spike high during NY hours was rejected, and NY lower highs now press price below EMA20 mid-range, with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 range top and the NY lower highs line reopens the 1.1391 spike high
Failure to hold the 1.1364 swing low, then the 1.1359 double bottom, extends the lower-low sequence from the session high
Asia session after London close is typically thin; Fri GfK 06:00 GMT, Williams 09:15 UTC and US Durables 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Heavy intraday, lower highs since London · RSI 52 · price 1.13731
NY range 1.1359–1.1391 with a double low; lower-high sequence from the London high.
London briefly lifted above the Asian high to a 1.1399 london high on the IFO beat. The move reversed through the asian low as strong US claims and hawkish Fed repricing lifted USD. NY has held a 1.1359–1.1391 range: a double low at 1.1359, and the late-NY spike high at 1.1391 was rejected. Price is back at the asian low near 1.1370, RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.1368, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 double low resumes the lower-low chain and exposes the 1.1350 round number
Close above the 1.1391 spike high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.1399 london high and 1.1387 asian high back into play
Holding the 1.1368 asian low keeps price mid-range into the Asia session
EZ GfK and GDP (Fri 06:00–07:00 UTC) and Williams at 09:15 UTC are the next catalysts that could shift this read
Range 1.1359–1.1378 below lower highs from London high.
EURUSD has dropped from the London high at 1.1399 as the claims beat and hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid. A late-NY spike to 1.1391 was rejected, leaving a lower high. Price is now boxed in a 1.1359–1.1378 range, with the NY low retested and holding; RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 ny low extends the lower highs sequence toward the 1.1350 psych zone
Close above the 1.1378 range top reopens the 1.1391 spike high
A break of the 1.1391 spike high and the lower highs line negates the drop from the London high at 1.1399
GfK and GDP at 06:00/07:00 UTC Fri, then US Durables at 12:30 UTC, could shift this read
Lower highs from London high; NY ranging 1.1359–1.1391 after spike rejection.
London's pop to the 1.1399 london high on the German IFO beat faded as firm US yields and data took over. That drop broke below the Asian range and printed a 1.1359 day low. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 1.1391 ny high was fully rejected, extending the lower highs sequence, and late NY price sits below the ema20 near 1.1372 on the 1.1364 swing low, with RSI(14) around 44.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1372, 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1364 swing low and 1.1359 day low confirms a lower-low extension
Reclaim of the 1.1391 ny high breaks the lower highs line off the 1.1399 london high
Holding above ema20 near 1.1372 would neutralise the fade from the NY spike
EUR GfK and GDP (06:00/07:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) could shift the next-session read
18:01 UTC
Downtrend from Ifo high, basing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.13678
Lower high at 1.1391; range 1.1359–1.1378.
The London push to the 1.1399 Ifo high was sold as hawkish Fed talk and 5%+ UST yields lifted USD. Price then based between the 1.1359 session low and the 1.1378 range top through NY hours, with a second hold at the 1.1364 intraday low. The 16:15 UTC spike to 1.1391 stalled past the 61.8% fib and was sold back into the range, a false break that left a lower spike high. Price sits at 1.1368 after London close, RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.13638, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13782, 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1359 session low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1340 support flagged in the digest in view
M15 close back above the 1.1378 range top and 1.1391 spike high reopens the 1.1399 Ifo high
German GfK (06:00 UTC) and GDP (07:00 UTC) Friday could reset the range before London open
17:46 UTC
Down from London high, basing above 1.1359 · RSI 46 · price 1.13724
1.1359–1.1399 day range, lower high at 1.1391, higher low at 1.1364.
The Ifo beat printed the london high at 1.1399, but hawkish Williams remarks and 5.14% UST yields drove a slide to a 1.1359 session low. That was followed by a higher low at 1.1364. The late-NY spike high at 1.1391 overshot the 61.8% fib and was rejected, and price is now back at the 1.1371 spike base, below the 38.2% fib at 1.1374.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1364, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1359 session low breaks the higher-low line and confirms a lower low
Holding the spike base at 1.1371 and the 1.1364 higher low keeps the basing read intact
Reclaim of the 1.1391 spike high reopens the 1.1399 london high
Fri GfK 06:00 UTC, EZ GDP 07:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could reset the range
1.1359–1.1399 day range; higher low at 1.1364, spike high 1.1391 rejected.
The Ifo beat briefly lifted EUR to the London high at 1.1399, but supply capped it and the pair slid to a 1.1359 session low in NY as strong US claims and hawkish Fed-Williams talk pushed UST yields higher. A higher low at 1.1364 preceded a late-NY spike to 1.1391. That spike was rejected, and price sits near the 50% level of the london-ny fib around 1.1379.
Support: 1.13638, 1.13589
Resistance: 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 spike high reopens the London high at 1.1399
Failure to hold the 1.1364 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.1359 session low
Fri GfK (06:00 UTC), EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.1399 session high; 1.1359–1.1364 base tested three times; late-NY spike high rejected.
The post-Ifo push to the 1.1399 session high faded through London as US yields near 5.14% and firm claims kept USD bid. Price then based at the 1.1359 day low and the 1.1364 swing low into the London-NY transition. A late-NY pop to the 1.1391 spike high was rejected, leaving price at 1.1378, near the 50% fib of the day's drop and back inside the Asian range.
Support: 1.13638, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 spike high reopens the 1.1399 session high and the 1.1400 cap
Failure to hold the 1.1364 swing low and 1.1359 day low breaks the base and extends the lower-low sequence
Holding around the 50% fib at 1.1378 keeps the late-NY read as a range between 1.1359 and 1.1391
German GfK (06:00 UTC) and GDP (07:00 UTC), then Fed Williams (09:15 UTC), could reset the session range
17:01 UTC
Sideways, rebounding within the day's range · RSI 58 · price 1.13803
Higher low at 1.1364 after 1.1359 session low; late-NY spike to 1.1391 faded.
The London high at 1.1399 gave way to a USD-led slide into a 1.1359 session low during NY hours, with hawkish Fed talk and firm US claims and housing data keeping the dollar bid. A late-NY spike off the 1.1364 higher low reached 1.1391 and was rejected, and price is back near the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg at 1.1380.
Support: 1.13638, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13913, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 spike high reopens the london high at 1.1399 and the 1.1400 cap
Failure to hold the 1.1364 higher low exposes the 1.1359 session low
Fed Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables/UoM on Friday could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, bouncing off NY base · RSI 60 · price 1.13823
1.1359–1.1378 NY range broken higher, spike rejected at 1.1391.
The 1.1399 London high on the Ifo beat was sold as hawkish Fed talk and firm US claims kept USD bid, driving the London sell-off to a 1.1359 session low. NY then built a base at 1.1359–1.1378 with a higher low at 1.1364. After London close price broke the range top but was rejected at the 1.1391 spike high, and now sits near the 61.8% retracement of the move.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1364, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1378 range top would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 1.1391 spike high opens the 1.1399 London high / 1.1400 intraday cap
Loss of the 1.1364 higher low exposes the 1.1359 session low, with MUFG's 1.1340 below
No scheduled risk into Asia; Fri German GfK/GDP (06:00–07:00 UTC) and Fed Williams (09:15 UTC) are the next catalysts
16:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in a range · RSI 51 · price 1.13735
London high rejected, NY range 1.1359–1.1378 with a higher low at 1.1364.
The Ifo beat printed a London high at 1.1399 that was rejected. Hawkish Fed repricing and firm US claims then drove a slide to a 1.1359 day low. Since then, after London close, price has ranged 1.1359–1.1378 with a higher swing low at 1.1364, and it is now pressing the range top just under the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1390, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 range top (50% fib) opens the asian high at 1.1390, then the london high at 1.1399
Loss of the 1.1364 swing low and 1.1359 day low confirms a lower low and brings the 1.1340 key support into view
US yields extending above ~5.14% could break the range lower
Fri 06:00 UTC German GfK and 07:00 UTC GDP are the next EUR catalysts
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing after London close · RSI 48 · price 1.13705
Lower highs from 1.1399, NY range 1.1359–1.1378 with a higher low at 1.1364.
London pushed above the 1.1386 Asian high to 1.1399 on the Ifo beat, then reversed. Hawkish Fed repricing and firm US claims took out the Asian low and printed a 1.1359 session low. NY has since compressed between 1.1359 and the 1.1378 NY high, which sits just under the 50% fib, with price pinned at EMA20, RSI(14) near 48 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1386
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 NY high and 50% fib breaks the compression and exposes the 1.1386 Asian high
Loss of the 1.1364 higher low and the 1.1359 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
Calendar clear for the next 8h; Fri German GfK/GDP (06:00–07:00 UTC), then Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), are the next scheduled drivers
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into a range · RSI 49 · price 1.13698
Ifo spike rejected; 1.1359–1.1378 range with a higher low.
The early-London push to the 1.1399 ifo high was fully rejected as US yields climbed. Price has since compressed into a 1.1359–1.1378 range through NY hours, with RSI(14) flat near 49. Upbeat US claims and home sales data failed to extend the 1.1359 session low, and the 15:00 UTC dip held a higher low at 1.1364 into the London close.
Support: 1.13638, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13782, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 session low resumes the lower-low sequence and puts 1.1340 key support in view
Close above the 1.1378 range top (≈50% fib of the Ifo drop) opens the 61.8% fib near 1.1384 and the 1.1399 ifo high
Loss of the 1.1364 higher low would put range support back under test
A fresh high in US yields beyond 5.14% could shift the range read during thin post-London hours
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into a range · RSI 46 · price 1.13672
Lower highs from session high; 1.1359–1.1378 range below Asian low.
London's Ifo-driven push to the 1.1399 session high was rejected and sold through the 1.1369 Asian low as US yields hit 5.14% and claims came in firm. Since then price has held a 1.1359–1.1378 range, with lower highs capping near the range top and price sitting mid-range late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1359 range low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
Close above the 1.1378 range top, the 50% retrace of the session drop, breaks the lower-highs line
Renewed rise in US yields beyond 5.14% could pressure the range low
Lower highs off the Ifo high; 1.1359–1.1378 band below the Asian low.
The London push to the ifo high at 1.1399 faded as US yields firmed. Price broke below the asian low near 1.1369 and has held a 1.1359–1.1378 band through NY hours, and the US claims and new home sales beats added pressure. The NY bounce stalled at the 50% retrace of the Ifo sell-off (lower high 1.1378), and the latest bar is back near 1.1365 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1369, 1.1378, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1359 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
Reclaim of the 1.1378 lower high voids the band read and brings the 1.1399 ifo high into view
Acceptance back above the 1.1369 asian low would mark a failed range break
US yields vs the 5.14% high remain the swing factor; Fri Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs from 1.1399 London high over a flat 1.1359–1.1362 base; price back inside the Asian range.
London's Ifo-driven break above the Asian high to the 1.1399 London high failed as US yields climbed. Buyers held the 1.1361 London low and the 1.1359 session low through the US claims beat, and price is now at the 38.2% fib (1.1374) mid-NY session. Highs keep stepping lower under the descending trendline, with the 1.1378 NY high capping for now.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1387, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 NY high and the descending trendline opens the 1.1387 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1359 session low and 1.1361 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 mufg support
Reclaiming the 50% fib at 1.1379 turns the base into a broader recovery toward the 1.1399 London high
Thin liquidity after London close; Fri US durables and UoM inflation expectations are the next material shift for this read
15:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 46 · price 1.13723
Lower highs from 1.1399, basing 1.1359–1.1378 at Asian range low.
London's Ifo-led push to the 1.1399 london high was rejected. Price then broke below the 1.1369 Asian range low as strong US data and yields near 5.14% kept the dollar bid. Since mid-London the pair has held a 1.1359–1.1378 range. The NY dip swept the 1.1361 lows to a 1.1359 day low and was bought back, leaving price pinned to EMA20 near 1.1372, just below the 38.2% retrace of the london high to day low move.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1386, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 range top, which is also the 50% fib, reopens the 1.1386 asian high
Failure at 1.1359 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 psych, the MUFG key line
No scheduled data in the next 8h; a move in US yields or Fed-hike pricing is the main risk to the range read
14:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in a range · RSI 48 · price 1.13713
Lower high off 1.1399 London high; NY holding 1.1359–1.1378 range.
The London rally was rejected at the 1.1399 london high, just shy of 1.1400. Hawkish Williams remarks and firm US claims then drove price through the 1.1369 asian low. NY has ranged 1.1359–1.1378: the dip to the session low was swept and reclaimed within a bar, and the range top has capped three times near the 50% fib of the London high–session low drop.
Support: 1.13685, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 range top reopens the 1.1399 london high
Close below the 1.1359 session low extends lower lows toward 1.1340 mufg support
Holding back above the 1.1369 asian low keeps the NY range intact
Late-NY Fed commentary or Trump–Xi summit headlines could shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, basing near 1.1360 · RSI 54 · price 1.13775
Lower highs capped at 1.1378 over a 1.1359–1.1378 range since 09:00 UTC; NY now testing the range top.
London broke the Asian high but was rejected at 1.1399, the London high just under 1.1400, after the IFO beat. Hawkish Fed commentary and UST yields near 5.14% then drove price through the Asian low to a 1.1359 session low. NY swept the 1.1361 lows and has reclaimed EMA20 into the 1.1378 range top, which lines up with the 50% retracement of the London sell-off. EMA50 sits just below at ~1.1376.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1386, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 range top / 50% fib opens the 1.1386 Asian high, then the 1.1399 London high
Slip back below the 1.1369 Asian low puts the 1.1359 session low back in play; MUFG's 1.1340 support is the next reference
Trump-Xi summit headlines and Fed commentary remain live USD drivers into the NY close
Lower highs from London high; Asian range broken lower; base at 1.1360.
The post-IFO London high at 1.1399 faded as the USD bid on hawkish Williams remarks and 197K claims took the pair through the Asian low into a 1.1359 session low. Three tests of 1.1360 held through the London-NY transition. Price now sits at 1.1373, pressing the falling trendline and the 38.2% fib of the London high–session low drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 1.13685, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13774, 1.13862, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1377 lower high breaks the falling trendline and brings the 1.1386 Asian high into view
Failure to hold the 1.1359 session low extends the downtrend toward 1.1340 key support
Slipping back below the 1.1369 Asian low returns price to the 1.1360 base
US New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) and Trump-Xi summit headlines during NY hours could shift this read
Lower highs from the London high; 1.1359–1.1377 band since mid-London, Asian low lost.
The slide from the 1.1399 London high follows Williams' hawkish remarks and 5%+ UST yields. It broke the 1.1369 Asian low and has held a 1.1359–1.1377 band since mid-London. NY hours swept the session low at 1.1359 before a quick recovery, leaving price just under the Asian low with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1369, 1.1377, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1369 Asian low and the 1.1377 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence off the London high
Failure to hold the 1.1359 session low confirms a lower low and opens MUFG's 1.1340 support
Descending trendline from the London high caps each bounce; a close through it changes the read
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Trump–Xi headlines could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 45 · price 1.13713
Lower highs from 1.1399, sideways 1.1362–1.1377 box.
London's IFO-time break above the Asian high at 1.1387 failed with a rejection at the 1.1399 session high. Hawkish Fed Williams remarks and a firm USD then drove EUR/USD through yesterday's prior low to a 1.1361 session low. Since then it has ranged 1.1362–1.1377, with the post-claims bounce capped at the range top near the 38.2% fib of the London sell-off.
Support: 1.13698, 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13774, 1.13872, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1377 range top opens the 50% fib near 1.1380 and the 1.1387 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1370 prior low and a break of the 1.1362 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
Fedspeak and US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend from London high, stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.13744
Lower highs off 1.1399; 1.1361–1.1377 range with double bottom at the lows.
London lifted above the Asian high to the 1.1399 London high on the IFO beat. Hawkish Fedspeak and firm UST yields then drove a slide through the Asian range to a 1.1361 session low. Since then a 1.1361–1.1377 range has held, and the dip on the claims beat stopped at 1.1362 for a double bottom, with price back at the London drop fib 38.2% and sitting on EMA20 just under the range top and EMA50 near 1.1378.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1377, 1.1386, 1.1399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1377 range top/EMA50 clears the lower-high trendline and opens the 1.1386 Asian high and fib 50% near 1.1380
Failure at the 1.1361 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1340 key support
Rebounds stalling below the 1.1399 London high keep the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high, tight 1.1361–1.1377 box below the Asian low.
The IFO beat lifted the London session to a 1.1399 london high. Price then faded as the USD/yields bid took over, breaking the Asian low and printing a 1.1361 session low. Since then EURUSD has held a tight 1.1361–1.1377 box under a lower high, and the claims-beat dip at the NY open found demand near 1.1362.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13772, 1.13862, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1377 lower high (38.2% fib) breaks the descending line and exposes the 1.1386 asian high
Break of the 1.1361 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1340 key support
Fed's Paulson at 13:00 UTC and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 39 · price 1.13677
Asian range broken lower, basing above session low.
London pushed to a 1.13989 london high on the IFO beat, then was rejected under 1.1400 as UST yields hit 19-year highs. The drop broke the Asian range to a 1.13613 session low. Price is now coiling just above the 1.13641 recent low beneath a 1.13772 lower high, with RSI(14) near 39 as jobless claims print into the NY open.
Support: 1.13641, 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13772, 1.13887, 1.13989
What it said to watch
Initial jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson shortly after could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.13613 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
M15 close above the 1.13772 lower high breaks the descending trendline and brings the 1.13887 asian high back into view
Bounce stalling below the 38.2% fib (~1.1376) keeps the London-high-to-session-low decline intact
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs from London high · RSI 36 · price 1.13671
London rejection at 1.1399, Asian low broken, pinned above session low.
London rejected the 1.1400 cap at a 1.1399 London high after the IFO beat, then slid to a 1.1361 session low, breaking the Asian low near 1.1369 as hawkish Fedspeak and 5%+ UST yields kept USD firm. The bounce stalled at a 1.1377 lower high, near the 38.2% of the London drop, and price sits just above the session low into the NY open with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1369, 1.13772, 1.13989
What it said to watch
US jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson (12:50/13:00 GMT) could materially shift this read in the next few bars
Failure to hold the 1.1361 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
Recovery back above the 1.1369 Asian low turns that level from resistance back into range
M15 close above the 1.1377 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the London high and the 38.2% of the London drop
LH/LL chain below failed London high; Asian low lost.
London's push through the Asian high to 1.1399 around the IFO beat was a false break. EUR/USD reversed through the Asian low at 1.1369 to a 1.1361 session low as the yields-driven USD bid resumed. The rebound stalled at a 1.1377 lower high just above the 38.2% fib, and price sits near 1.1368 heading into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13772, 1.13862, 1.13989
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1377 lower high breaks the LH chain and brings the 1.1386 Asian high into view
Loss of the 1.1361 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1340 line
Only a reclaim of the 1.1399 London high negates the false break
False break above Asian range, then break below it; bounce capped at 42% retrace.
London pushed through the Asian high to a 1.1399 london high on the IFO beat, then reversed through the Asian low to a 1.1361 session low as the USD yields bid reasserted. The recovery stalled at the 1.1377 bounce high, near the 38.2–50% retrace of that drop, with lower highs intact and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13772, 1.13862, 1.13989
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1361 session low exposes 1.1340 key support
M15 close above the 1.1377 bounce high breaks trendline resistance and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1386 asian high neutralises the London false break
Lower highs; London false break of Asian high, then new low.
London pushed through the Asian high at 1.1387, was rejected at a 1.1399 London high just shy of 1.1400, then reversed to a fresh two-month session low at 1.1361 as the yields-driven USD bid held. Price has recovered to 1.1376, back above the Asian low and sitting on the 38.2% fib of the London drop, with the lower-highs line intact and price below both EMAs heading into NY.
Support: 1.13685, 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13989
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, with Hammack and Paulson shortly after, could materially shift this read within the hour
M15 close back below the Asian low at 1.1369 exposes the 1.1361 session low
A break of the session low brings the 1.1340 MUFG line into view
Reclaiming the 1.1380 50% fib and the Asian high at 1.1387 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Lower highs from 1.1399; false break below Asian low, now back inside Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high on the IFO beat but was rejected at a 1.1399 session high under 1.1400, then slid through the Asian low to a 1.1361 session low as the USD bid on 5%+ yields dominated. Price has since recovered back above the Asian low and is stalling just under the 38.2% of the London drop fib (1.1376), with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.13685, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13989
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, with Hammack and Paulson after, could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
Close back below the asian low at 1.1369 reopens the 1.1361 session low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 50% of the London drop fib (1.1380) puts the asian high at 1.1387 back in play
Session high at 1.1399 stays the cap on the London structure; a move above it negates the lower-high read
Lower highs from London high; Asian low swept, price back at it.
London faded from the 1.1399 London high after a brief IFO lift. It carved lower highs into a sweep of the Asian low and yesterday's 1.1370 low, printing a 1.1361 session low (fresh two-month low) as the USD yield bid persisted. The latest bar is back at the 1.1369 Asian low with RSI(14) near 34, and the 1.1378 breakdown ledge and 38.2% fib sit overhead.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1361, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1399
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1369 Asian low turns the sweep into continuation toward 1.1361 session low
M15 close above 1.1378 breakdown / 38.2% fib eases the lower-high sequence
Break of 1.1361 exposes 1.1340 key support
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London session high; Asian range low broken.
London faded from the 1.13989 session high after the IFO beat and has built a lower-high chain since. The late-London-morning push cleared the Asian low at 1.13685 to a new session low at 1.13613, with the USD bid on elevated US yields still dominating. RSI(14) sits near 29 and ATR runs about 6 pips.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13685, 1.13779, 1.13989
What it said to watch
Recovery and M15 close back above the asian low at 1.13685 would turn the range break into a false break
M15 close above the 1.13779 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib of the session high to low move sits near 1.1376
Failure to hold the session low at 1.13613 leaves MUFG key support at 1.1340 as the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Fedspeak from Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 27 · price 1.13665
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the IFO high; Asian range broken to the downside.
The early-London push to the IFO high at 1.1399 faded into a string of lower highs, taking price through the Asian low at 1.1369 to a fresh session low at 1.1366 as the USD and yield bid held. RSI(14) is near 27, stretched but not extreme, with the 1.1350 round number and 1.1340 key support the next references below.
Support: 1.13664, 1.1350, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13685, 1.13779, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1369 Asian low marks the range break as a false break
Recovery above the 1.1378 lower high breaks the descending lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.1350 round number exposes the 1.1340 key support
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K), Hammack and Paulson could materially shift this read
Retrace toward the 38.2–50% fib of the ifo high selloff (1.1379–1.1383) is the area to watch for rejection
London false break above the Asian range, fully reversed to range lows.
London lifted EURUSD through the asian high at 1.1387 to a london high at 1.1399 after the IFO beat, but it was rejected just shy of 1.1400. The whole move has since unwound as the USD stays bid on October Fed hike pricing. Price is basing just above the 1.1372 session low, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 37. The london drop fib 38.2–61.8% band at 1.1382–1.1388 overlaps the asian high.
Support: 1.13715, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13989
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fedspeak from Hammack and Paulson could materially shift this read ahead of NY open
An M15 close below the 1.1369 asian low sets a fresh lower low for the window
A recovery through the 1.1387 asian high and the london drop fib 61.8% reopens the 1.1399 london high
False break above Asian range; lower high at 1.1399, now retesting Asian low.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.1387 after the IFO beat, but stalled at the 1.1399 session high, right at the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's PMI-driven drop and just shy of 1.1400, then gave back the whole rally. Mid-London, price sits at 1.1375, pressing the 1.1372 session low just above the 1.1369 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.13715, 1.13685, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1369 asian low sets a fresh lower-low under the post-PMI base; 1.1340 key support is next.
Reclaim of the 1.1387 asian high would reopen the 1.1399 session high and the 61.8% fib.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, plus Hammack at 12:50 and Paulson at 13:00, could materially shift this read.
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend resumed after failed London rally · RSI 38 · price 1.13762
False break above Asian range, full reversal to range lows.
London cleared the asian high at 1.1386 around the IFO beat but stalled at the 1.1399 session high, just shy of 1.1400, and gave back the whole move to a 1.1372 london low. Mid-London now, price is in the lower half of the Asian range with RSI(14) near 38. The asian low at 1.1369 also sits right on yesterday's post-PMI low.
Support: 1.13715, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13862, 1.13989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1369 asian low breaks the floor shared with yesterday's post-PMI low
Reclaim of the 1.1386 asian high, near the 50–61.8% zone of the london selloff fib, would neutralise the false-break read
Rejection again below the 1.1399 session high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, lower highs since 1.1399.
London cleared the asian high at 1.1387 to a 1.1399 session high around the IFO beat. Price stalled short of 1.1400 and has since unwound the whole move to 1.1375, near the 78.6% retrace of the Asia-London leg. USD firmness on October Fed-hike repricing keeps the asian low at 1.1369 in play.
Support: 1.13685, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13989
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1369 extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.1387 neutralises the false break
A push through the 1.1399 session high and 1.1400 psych changes the intraday read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC plus Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Sideways near 2-month lows, London bounce fading · RSI 48 · price 1.13833
Failed London break above Asian range, back at 50% retrace.
London open lifted EUR/USD through the Asian high, but the post-IFO push stalled at a session high of 1.1399, just under 1.1400, and price has slipped back to the 50% fib of the Asian low to session high leg near 1.1384. Price is back inside the Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price just under both EMAs. The firm USD on October Fed-hike repricing is still capping upside despite the EZ data beats.
Support: 1.1375, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13989
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asian high at 1.1387 revives the London break; clearing the 1.1399 session high and 1.1400 opens the 1.1405 area
Failure to hold the pre-London low at 1.1375 exposes the asian low at 1.1369, the 2-month low zone
ECB Lane at 09:00 UTC, then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, pullback into retest of asian high.
London cleared the asian high at 1.1386 and printed a session high at 1.1399. Supply capped it just below the 1.1400 pivot after the IFO beat, as strong EZ data again failed to outweigh USD firmness. Price is now back on the asian high near the 38.2% fib of the asian low-to-session high leg, RSI(14) neutral at 54, with the higher lows trendline still intact below.
Support: 1.13862, 1.13831, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13989, 1.14154
What it said to watch
ECB Lane at 09:00 UTC could jolt the pair within the next bar or two
M15 close back below the london low at 1.1383 (50% fib) turns the breakout into a false break toward the asian low 1.1369
Close above the session high and 1.1400 opens the pre-pmi high at 1.1415
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Break of the higher lows trendline ends the higher-low sequence off the asian low
08:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling under 1.1400 · RSI 60 · price 1.13919
Asian range broken higher at London open; higher-low chain along rising trendline.
London broke above the 1.13685–1.13862 Asian range at the open and has printed higher lows along a rising trendline. The post-IFO push met rejection at a 1.13989 session high just under 1.1400, with RSI(14) near 60 and the 1.13831 London low sitting on the 50% fib of the Asia-to-London leg.
Support: 1.13862, 1.13831, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13989, 1.14047
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1400 clears the session high and exposes the 1.14047 prior high from yesterday's post-PMI bounce
Asian high at 1.13862 is the first retest area if the rising trendline gives way
Loss of the 1.13831 London low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.13685 Asian low below
ECB Lane at 09:00 UTC, then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 66 · price 1.13945
HH/HL chain; Asian range broken higher, pressing 1.1400.
After Wednesday's USD-driven slide on hot US PMIs and the weak 5y auction, EUR/USD printed higher lows from the 1.1369 Asian low and cleared the 1.1386 Asian high into London open. It is now at 1.1394, the post-auction bounce high, just under the 1.1400 psych pivot, with RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.13862, 1.13754, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14047, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1400 psych exposes the 1.1405 prior high and the 1.1415 pre-pmi high
Slip back below the 1.1386 asian high would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the rising lows line and the 1.1375 higher low returns price toward the 1.1369 asian low
German IFO (08:00 UTC), Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and ECB's Lane (09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US claims at 12:30 UTC
07:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since 02:00 UTC · RSI 62 · price 1.13903
Asian range broken higher in early London, pressing NY high.
Early London lifted EURUSD through the Asian range high at 1.1387, and it is now testing yesterday's NY high at 1.1393, the 50% retrace of the US-PMI drop from 1.1415. Higher lows have printed off the 1.1369 swing low since 02:00 UTC, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.13872, 1.13831, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400, 1.14047
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the Asian high at 1.1387 turns the break into a false break, with the London low at 1.1383 next
Close above the NY high 1.1393 and the 1.1400 psych pivot opens the pmi bounce high at 1.1405
German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC could shift this read within the hour; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC
Break of the higher-lows trendline near 1.1379 reopens the 1.1369 swing low
07:31 UTC
Short-term recovery off the Asian low, capped below 1.1391 · RSI 58 · price 1.1386
Asian range broken higher; higher low at 1.1375, flat session high at 1.1391 tested three times.
The US PMI beat drove yesterday's slide to the 1.1369 asian low. The 06:00 UTC push then broke the Asian range top and printed a higher low at 1.1375. Early London is retesting the old range top near 1.1386. The session high at 1.1391 has capped three attempts, with the 1.1393 prior high and 1.1400 round number stacked just above.
Support: 1.1383, 1.1375, 1.1369
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1393, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 session high and the 1.1393 prior high opens 1.1400 round number
Loss of the 1.1383 session low puts price back inside the Asian range, toward the 1.1375 higher low on the rising trendline
Break of the 1.1369 asian low would mark a fresh two-month low
Schnabel now, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC are the next dollar catalyst
07:16 UTC
Flat to slightly firmer after yesterday's slide · RSI 60 · price 1.13859
Asian range 1.13685–1.13862, early-Europe poke above, higher low at 1.13754.
Asia held a 1.13685–1.13862 range after the hot US PMIs dragged the pair off the pmi high at 1.14154 and below the 1.1400 pivot yesterday. A pre-London push tagged 1.13905, now the london high, then slipped back to retest the Asian range top. The session is at the London open with a higher low at 1.13754, RSI(14) near 60 and ATR only about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.13754, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13905, 1.1400, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.13905 london high opens the 1.1400 pivot; supply capped there during yesterday's NY session
Break of the 1.13754 higher low puts the 1.13685 asian low and the two-month low back in play
Schnabel (07:15 UTC), IFO (08:00 UTC) and Williams (08:10 UTC) land in the next hour and could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk for October Fed-hike pricing
Asian range 1.1369–1.1387, early probe above top faded.
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1369–1.1387 Asian range after yesterday's slide on the US PMI beat. The double low at 1.1369–1.1370 held, and a higher low at 1.1375 sits on a rising trendline. The pre-London push printed a session high at 1.1390 but slipped back inside the range, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.13754, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13905, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 swing high opens the 1.1400 pivot
Loss of the 1.1375 higher low and trendline puts the 1.1369 double low back in focus
Schnabel 07:15Z, German IFO 08:00Z and Williams 08:10Z could materially shift this read
Asian range breakout above 1.1386, higher low at 1.1375 off 1.1370 floor.
Pre-London buying lifted EURUSD out of the 1.13685–1.13862 Asian range to a 1.1390 session high. That high sits at the 38.2% retrace of the post-US PMI drop from 1.14154. Asia held the 1.1370 floor twice and printed a higher low at 1.13754, while 1.1400 psych and the 1.14047 pmi rebound high sit overhead.
Support: 1.13862, 1.13754, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1400, 1.14047
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.13862 asian high puts price back inside the range and marks the breakout as a false break
A break of the 1.13754 higher low exposes the 1.13685 asian low and the double-bottom floor
Acceptance above 1.1400 psych opens the 1.14047 pmi rebound high and the 61.8% fib near 1.1397
Schnabel at 07:15 UTC, German IFO at 08:00 UTC (f/c 89) and Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Flat near lows, higher lows since Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.13842
Asian range 1.13685–1.13862, pre-London poke above the top.
After the strong US PMIs knocked EURUSD to two-month lows, Asia produced a false break of yesterday's 1.13698 low to 1.13685 and then printed higher lows at 1.13749/1.13754 inside a 1.13685–1.13862 range. A pre-London push to a 1.13887 high cleared the Asia top, but price is fading back to 1.1384, the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 1.13935 swing high.
Support: 1.13754, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13887, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.13935 swing high opens the 1.1400 round number
Slip back below the 1.13862 Asia top turns the pre-London high at 1.13887 into a false break
Loss of the 1.13754 higher low breaks the rising support line and puts the 1.13685 asia low back in play
Schnabel at 07:15Z, German IFO at 08:00Z and Williams at 08:10Z around London open could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways after NY sell-off, momentum soft · RSI 43 · price 1.13777
Asian range 1.1369–1.1386 with higher lows inside, pre-London.
Hot US PMIs drove the NY-session slide from 1.1408, and Asia has since held a 1.1369–1.1386 range. The Asian high at 1.1386 has been rejected twice, and a higher low near 1.1375 sits on the rising trendline off the Asian low. Price is back near the midpoint of the Asian range fib into London open, with RSI(14) around 43 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.13754, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13862, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1375 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 1.1369 Asian low; a break there extends the post-PMI lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1386 Asian high breaks the range and opens the 1.1394 NY high, with the 1.1400 round number above
London open, then Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC (f/c 89) and Williams 08:10 UTC, could break the Asian range
US Initial Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Downtrend paused, flat into London · RSI 51 · price 1.13796
1.1369–1.1394 range under lower highs after US PMI drop.
The hot US PMI yesterday afternoon drove EUR/USD through 1.1400. Since then price has held a 1.1369–1.1394 band, with demand at the 1.1369 asian low and the late-NY low just above it, and the 1.1375 asia pivot holding twice overnight. The asian high at 1.1386 sits at the 38.2% retrace of the post-PMI drop and under the lower-highs line; price is mid-range at 1.1380 ahead of London open, flat to the EMAs, with ATR near 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1369
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1369 asian low extends the lower-low sequence from the post-PMI drop
M15 close above the 1.1386 asian high and the lower-highs line opens the 1.1394 swing high, then the 1.1400 round number
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC land in the first hour of London and could break the Asian range
US Initial Claims 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could shift the read in NY hours
05:46 UTC
Flat after PMI-driven slide, higher lows in Asia · RSI 61 · price 1.13843
Range 1.1369–1.1394, Asia higher lows pressing the Asian high.
Late Asia session. EURUSD is holding a 1.1369–1.1394 range after yesterday's US PMI beat drove it below 1.1400, and Asia has printed higher lows off the 1.1369 asian low to press the 1.1386 asian high. Price sits near the 62% fib of the drop from the 1.1394 swing high, with RSI(14) at 61 and ATR near 4 pips, so ranges are compressed into London open.
Support: 1.13749, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13862, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1386 asian high exposes the 1.1394 swing high and the 1.1400 round number
Break below the 1.1375 higher low ends the higher-lows sequence and reopens the 1.1369 asian low
ECB Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Fed Williams 08:10 UTC could break the Asian range
Asian range 1.1369–1.1386 with higher lows, capped by falling highs.
Yesterday's US PMI beat drove the NY slide to two-month lows near 1.1370. The Asia session has since built a tight 1.1369–1.1386 range: the asian low at 1.13685 retested that NY low and a higher low at 1.1375 followed. Price is now pressing the asian high just under a flat EMA50, with the falling highs line from the 1.1394 rebound high still intact.
Support: 1.13749, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13862, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1386 asian high and the 1.1394 rebound high breaks the falling highs line and brings the 1.1400 round number into view
Failure to hold the 1.1375 higher low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 1.1369 asian low
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC around London open could materially shift this read; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC follow
05:16 UTC
Downtrend pausing, sideways in late Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.13835
Asian range 1.1369–1.1386 with a higher low at 1.1375; price pressing the range top.
Yesterday's hot US PMI drove a NY-session slide from 1.1415. Late Asia is now holding a 1.1369–1.1386 range after the asian low swept the NY low near 1.1370 and recovered. A higher swing low at 1.1375 has lifted price back to the asian high, near the 38.2% level of the PMI selloff fib, with price flat on EMA50 and ATR(14) about 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.13749, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13857, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1386 breaks the range and opens the 1.1394 prior high, then the 1.1400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1375 swing low, and the rising asian lows line, puts the 1.1369 asian low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and German IFO (08:00 UTC) land into London open; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and the Trump-Xi summit could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the NY PMI drop; Asia swept prior low then higher low.
Strong US PMIs pushed EURUSD through 1.1400 during NY hours yesterday, and highs have stepped lower since. In the Asia session, price dipped under the prior 1.1370 low to a 1.13685 swing low, then snapped back. It is now pressing the descending trendline near 1.1384, at the 38.2% retrace of the 1.1405–1.1369 leg, with a higher low in place at 1.13749.
Support: 1.13749, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13857, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.13857 Asian high clears the descending trendline and opens the 1.13935 swing high, then the 1.1400 round number.
Losing the 1.13749 higher low puts the 1.13685 swing low back in play. A break there extends the lower-low sequence.
Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Williams (08:10 UTC) land in the first hour of London and could materially shift this read.
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC during NY hours is the next USD-side catalyst.
Lower highs intact; late-Asia range 1.1369–1.1386 above a triple-tested base.
Strong EZ PMI beats were sold into from London open. The US PMI beat then drove the pair through 1.1400 psych, leaving a lower-high chain from 1.1428 down to the 1.13935 NY swing high. Late in the Asia session, price is range-bound between the 1.13685 swing low, tested three times since yesterday's NY session, and the 1.13857 Asian high. That high sits near the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with the 1.13749 micro low forming the latest higher low inside the range.
Support: 1.13749, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13857, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.13685 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.13857 Asian high and the descending lower-high trendline breaks the intraday downtrend structure, exposing the 1.13935 NY swing high
Loss of the 1.13749 micro low puts the base back under test
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC (f/c 89) and Williams 08:10 UTC fall inside London open and could break the Asian range
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) with Hammack/Paulson after; a move toward 1.1400 psych hinges on Fed repricing
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.13789
Lower highs from 1.1415; Asian range 1.13685–1.13857 after a sweep of the NY low.
The US PMI beat drove the NY slide through 1.1400 psych to 1.13698. Asia swept that low to the 1.13685 asian low and rebounded to the 1.13857 asian high, with price now mid-range near 1.1379, flat on EMA20 and under the falling trendline and the PMI drop fib 38.2% (~1.1386), with the micro low at 1.1375 below.
Support: 1.1375, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13857, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.13857 asian high and falling trendline opens the 1.13935 bounce high and PMI drop fib 50%
Failure to hold the 1.13685 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
London open at 07:00 UTC, followed by Schnabel (07:15), German IFO (08:00) and Williams (08:10), could break the Asian range
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could reprice the 1.1400 psych retest
Late Asia session. Price briefly dipped under yesterday's 1.13698 NY low to a 1.13685 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.13857 Asia high under the lower highs line. Price is back near 1.1376, mid-range, with RSI(14) near 48. USD firmness after the blowout US PMIs has kept every bounce capped well below the 1.1400 psych level.
Support: 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13857, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.13685 session low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low
Close above the 1.13857 Asia high and the lower highs line opens the 1.13935 NY high, then 1.1400 psych
Schnabel 07:15 UTC and German IFO 08:00 UTC into London open, then US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 47 · price 1.13771
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia range 1.13685–1.13857 after a sweep of the NY low.
The US PMI beat broke EUR/USD below 1.1400 psych during NY hours yesterday, and the lower-highs sequence has held since. Asia swept the NY low near 1.1370 to an asian low at 1.13685, then bounced to the asian high at 1.13857. Price is back at 1.1377 in the lower half of the Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR around 5 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13857, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.13685 extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the asian high at 1.13857 and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read; the 1.13935 ny swing hi is next
1.1400 psych is the level where supply capped the bounces after the US PMI break
Schnabel at 07:15 UTC and German IFO at 08:00 UTC land in the first hour of London and could materially shift this read; US claims at 12:30 UTC follow
Range 1.1369–1.1394 after the US PMI break of 1.1400; Asia swept the low, then reverted mid-range.
EURUSD has been boxed between 1.1369 and 1.1394 since hot US PMIs pushed it through 1.1400 in NY hours. The Asia session swept the prior NY low with a dip to the 1.13685 sweep low, then bounced to 1.1386, just under the Asian high. Price now sits mid-range at 1.1379, and a lower-highs trendline is capping it, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.13685 sweep low confirms a lower-low and ends the range read
M15 close above the 1.13872 Asian high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 1.13935 NY high, then 1.1400 psych
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC fall in the London open window
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising in Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.13833
Lower highs intact; Asia swept prior low and reclaimed.
EURUSD slid through NY hours after the hot US PMIs lifted October Fed-hike bets, carving lower highs from 1.1432 down to 1.1370. Late in the Asia session price dipped to the asian low at 1.13685, a pip under the prior NY low, then rebounded into the asian high at 1.1386. The rebound retraces about 40% of the post-PMI leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.13755, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13857, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1386 asian high and the lower highs line brings the 1.1394 ny high and the 1.1400 round number into view
Failure back under the 1.1375 swing low returns focus to the asian low at 1.13685
Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00) and Williams (08:10) land in the first hour of London; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 55 · price 1.13846
Lower highs and lows since US PMI; Asia swept NY low and reclaimed.
Hot US PMIs set the downtrend, and Asia made a marginal sweep of the 1.1370 NY low to the 1.13685 asian low before recovering to the top of the Asian range. Price sits at the 61.8% fib of the 1.13935–1.13685 leg with RSI(14) near 55 and ATR under 5 pips into London open. The 1.1380 pivot is the nearest intraday support.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.13935 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1400 psych sits above
Rejection at the 61.8% fib and a close back below the 1.1380 pivot reopens the 1.13685 asian low
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 and Williams 08:10 UTC can reset the London range; US jobless claims 12:30 UTC
Lower-high chain intact; Asian range 1.13685–1.13845 after sweep of NY low.
The US PMI leg took EUR/USD from 1.1414 to 1.1370 during NY hours as October Fed-hike bets firmed. Late in the Asia session, price swept that low to an asian low at 1.13685 and snapped back to the asian high near 1.1384, with RSI(14) neutral around 51 and the lower-high chain from the ny rebound at 1.1394 still unbroken.
Support: 1.13749, 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13845, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.13845 asian high, then the 1.13935 ny rebound, breaks the lower-high chain; 38.2% of the US PMI leg sits at 1.1386
Loss of the swing low at 1.1375 and a close below the 1.13685 asian low resumes the downtrend
1.1400 round number caps any recovery that clears 1.1394
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC around the London open could materially shift this read
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC are the main USD event risk for the NY open
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.13695
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; marginal break of prior-day NY low.
The Asia session has extended the post-PMI USD bid. It set lower highs from the 1.1387 asian high and slipped just under yesterday's 1.1370 NY low to a 1.13685 session low. RSI(14) is near 30 with ATR around 4 pips, so this is a thin grind rather than an impulse, and the bounce off the 1.1394 bounce high has fully retraced.
Support: 1.13685
Resistance: 1.1376, 1.13823, 1.13872
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.13685 session low extends the lower-low chain
A recovery above the 1.1376 broken low would turn the 1.1370 break into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.1382 lower high, which sits on the asia lower-highs trendline and near the 50% retrace of the bounce leg, invalidates the Asian downtrend
A reclaim of the 1.1387 asian high returns price to the prior overnight range
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC around London open could reset the Asian range; US claims at 12:30 UTC follow
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.13758
Lower highs above a flat 1.1370 floor after the post-PMI drop.
Hot US PMIs drove the post-PMI drop from 1.1415 to the 1.1370 NY low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high near the 50% retrace. Mid-Asia, the ny low was retested at 1.1371 and held, but highs keep stepping lower along the descending trendline with the asian high at 1.1382 capping.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1382, 1.1394
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 ny low breaks the floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1382 asian high and the descending trendline would shift the read to a range, with the 1.1394 bounce high as the range cap
Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Williams (08:10 UTC) around the London open could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could reset the NY session range
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.13799
Lower highs above a twice-tested 1.1370 low.
Hot US PMIs pushed EUR/USD down from 1.1415 to the 1.1370 ny low. The bounce stalled at the 50% US PMI drop retrace near the 1.1393 swing high, below the 1.1400 round number. Asia is holding a tight 1.1371–1.1385 range under the lower highs line; a 00:45 UTC probe of the ny low was rejected and the pair sits just below the asian high.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1393, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Break of the asian high and lower highs line near 1.1385 turns the read to a range; the swing high at 1.1393 and the 1.1400 round number sit above
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) are the main USD driver for NY hours
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 40 · price 1.13779
Asian range 1.1371–1.1387 sitting under the NY bounce high; swing low retested.
EUR/USD stays heavy after yesterday's hot US PMIs drove the NY selloff to a swing low at 1.1370. Early Asia retested that level at 1.13706, and buyers stepped in again. Price is now pinned just above the 1.1376 shelf, under a line of lower highs capped at the 1.1382 Asia high; RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 3.4 pips point to a quiet, compressed tape.
Support: 1.13758, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13823, 1.1387, 1.13935
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 swing low breaks the double bottom and confirms a lower-low
Loss of the 1.1376 shelf puts the swing low back in play
Close above the 1.1382 Asia high breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.1387 range top and 1.1393 ny bounce high sit above
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC in the London open window could break the Asian range
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) are the main event risk for this read during NY hours
01:31 UTC
Sideways after a sharp drop, holding just above the lows · RSI 50 · price 1.1381
Tight range 1.1370–1.1387 under the US PMI selloff; lower highs capping.
The US PMI beat drove yesterday's NY-session drop from 1.1415 to the 1.1370 swing low. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib (1.1394 rebound hi), and a lower high formed at the 1.1387 Asian high on the us pmi drop fib's 38.2%. Early Asia retested the 1.1370 swing low and held, so price is range-bound mid-band with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 swing low breaks the double low and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1387 Asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 1.1394 rebound hi, then 1.1400 psych
Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Williams (08:10 UTC) at London open could break the Asian range
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the main USD driver later in the session
Lower highs capping a retest of the 1.1370 NY low.
The hot US PMI pushed EURUSD through 1.1400 during NY hours to a 1.1370 NY low. The evening bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, and a lower-highs line has capped rallies since. Early Asia has faded from the 1.1385 range top back to retest that low, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1385 range top and the lower-highs line puts the 1.1394 bounce high and 1.1400 psych back in play
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since US PMI · RSI 35 · price 1.13745
Asian range 1.1380–1.1387 giving way, testing toward NY low.
The hot US PMI knocked the pair from 1.1415 to a 1.1370 NY low, and the rebound stalled at the 50% fib near the 1.1394 rebound high. Early Asia has slipped out of its 1.1380–1.1387 range and is pressing back toward the NY low, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR at about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 1.1387 asian high negates the Asian range break
Close above the 1.1394 rebound high and the lower-high trendline reopens 1.1400 psych
ECB Schnabel 07:15, German IFO 08:00 and Fed Williams 08:10 UTC around London open could shift this read
Lower highs capping a tight 1.1376–1.1387 range after the NY selloff.
EUR lost 1.1400 psych after the hot US PMI, and the US PMI leg bottomed at the 1.1370 NY low. The bounce stalled near the 50% retrace at the 1.1394 swing high. Early Asia session is now pressing the asian low at 1.1376 inside a 1.1376–1.1387 range, with lower highs capping it and ATR compressed near 4 pips.
Support: 1.13765, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1370 ny low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.1387 range top, then the 1.1394 swing high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of 1.1400 psych would negate the post-PMI breakdown
ECB Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London, now a narrow early-Asia range above the NY low.
The hot US PMI at 13:45 UTC extended the lower-high sequence to a 1.1370 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 1.1394, and early Asia is compressing in a 1.1376–1.1387 band. Price sits on the Asian low at 1.1380, RSI(14) near 44 and ATR under 4 pips.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13761, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1376 rollover low exposes the 1.1370 NY low
M15 close above the 1.1387 range top puts the 50% fib at 1.1394 back in play
Reclaim of the 1.1400 round number would break the lower-high chain
Schnabel 07:15 UTC and German IFO 08:00 UTC could shift the read into London open
The hot US PMI print during NY hours broke EURUSD through the 1.1400 round number to a day low of 1.1370. The rebound high at 1.1394 retraced about half the drop and was followed by lower highs. Early Asia session is compressing between the 1.1380 range low and the 1.1389 range top, with ATR near 4 pips and price pinned just under EMA20.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13761, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.13886, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1389 range top and the lower highs line through 1.1394 rebound high invalidates the compression-under-resistance read
Failure to hold the 1.1380 range low and the 1.1376 asia low exposes the 1.1370 day low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Schnabel at 07:15 UTC and German IFO at 08:00 UTC fall at London open and could expand the range; 1.1400 round number is first overhead reference
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in tight range · RSI 45 · price 1.13805
Lower highs from the 1.1415 pre-PMI high; post-NY range 1.1376–1.1387.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke 1.1400 and stretched the slide from the Asian range to a 1.1370 NY low. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at 1.1394, just above the 50% fib, and price has since compressed in a 1.1376–1.1387 range into early Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1376 range low exposes the 1.1370 NY low
Close above the 1.1387 range top, then 1.1394 bounce high, breaks the lower-high trendline
Reclaim of 1.1400 (broken psych level) would negate the PMI breakdown
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC could reset the range