21:01 UTC
Downtrend paused, range-bound below EMAs · RSI 43 · price 1.12005
Contracting range: lower highs over a flat 1.1180-1.1188 floor.
The slide from 1.1386 bottomed at the 1.1113 window low mid-month. The rebound to the 1.1269 swing high has since stalled into a contracting range, with lower highs at 1.1260 and 1.1256 against a flat range low at 1.1180-1.1188, roughly the 50-61.8% zone of the rebound fib. Price is holding below a flattening ema20 near 1.1215 and EMA50 after Friday's EZ PMI misses and French spread stress. ATR(14) near 23 pips is well below the early-window regime, so the range is compressing into ECB/Fed week.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1256, 1.1269
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 1.1185 range low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1151 prior low, then the 1.1113 window low
- Break of the lower-highs line and a close above the 1.1256 lower high reopens the 1.1269 swing high
- Close back above the ema20 near 1.1215 would neutralise the drift toward the range low
- Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; heavy EUR shorts raise squeeze sensitivity