EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 26 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:01 UTC
Range with lower highs, pressing the floor · RSI 41 · price 1.1177
Lower highs from 1.1269 inside a 1.1180–1.1260 range; floor under test.
Since the 1.1269 high, H4 has printed lower highs at 1.1260, 1.1256 and 1.1226 inside a range whose range floor near 1.1185 has held three times. Closes are now edging just below that floor, into the 61.8% fib of the 1.1113–1.1269 rally at 1.1173, after soft Eurozone PMIs and a firmer USD into the Fed. Price sits under both flattening EMAs, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from 30+ earlier in the month, so the range is coiled.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1226, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 closes below the 61.8% fib at 1.1173 turn the marginal break of the range floor into a lower-low sequence toward the 1.1151 swing low and the 1.1113 window low
A recovery back above 1.1185 marks the break as false and keeps the range read intact
A close above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.1260 range top
Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC), the Fed decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) and the ECB decision (Thu 13:15 UTC) could expand ATR out of the current compression
17:01 UTC
Sideways to lower, lower highs inside range · RSI 38 · price 1.11777
1.1113–1.1269 range since the sweep low, swing highs stepping down.
EURUSD swept down to the 1.1113 window low, then rebounded to the 1.1269 range top. Since then swing highs have stepped lower to the 1.1256 lower high, and today's slide has slipped through the 1.1184 shelf toward the fib 61.8 of that rebound near 1.1173. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, which are now flat and converging. ATR(14) near 22 pips is well down from the late-September selloff, a compression profile heading into central-bank risk. EUR stayed heavy after Friday's broad flash PMI misses, and Monday's Ifo-driven bounce faded below the Monday high at 1.1226.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1256, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the fib 61.8 at 1.1173 exposes the swing low at 1.1151, then the window low at 1.1113
Recovery above the Monday high at 1.1226 and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the lower-high sequence and reopen the 1.1269 range top
Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC, FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR(14) compression near 22 pips sets up range expansion on the event cluster
13:01 UTC
Sideways after early-month selloff, lower highs building · RSI 41 · price 1.11938
1.1180–1.1270 range, lower highs pressing on a flat floor.
The slide from 1.1388 bottomed at the 1.1113 window low. The rebound capped at the 1.1269 range high, and the pair has since rotated inside 1.1180–1.1270. Highs are stepping lower at 1.1260, 1.1256 and this week's 1.1226, while the 1.1180–1.1185 range floor has absorbed four tests. Price sits at the 50% retracement of the 1.1113–1.1269 upleg, below flat, intertwined EMAs. ATR(14) has compressed to about 22 pips from 40–80 pips earlier in the window. Soft EZ flash PMIs were offset by broad USD weakness, which kept the range intact.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1172, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1256, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1180 range floor exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.1172 and the 1.1113 window low
Close above the week high at 1.1226 and the lower highs trendline near 1.1256 reopens the 1.1269 range high
Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC, Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC could resolve the compression
11:56 UTC
Range after early-month downtrend, compressing · RSI 45 · price 1.12064
Lower highs from 1.1269 against higher lows from 1.1113; contracting range.
After the slide from 1.1380 bottomed at the 1.1113 month low, EURUSD has traded a 1.1184–1.1260 range for over a week. Lower highs from 1.1269 and higher lows off 1.1113 are squeezing price into a narrowing band, now just below both EMAs. ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from 40–80 pip bars earlier in the window. The Moody's/IFO bounce stalled at a fresh lower high near 1.1226, with supply capping the range cap at 1.1255–1.1270 as the digest flags. Price is holding above the 50% retrace of the 1.1113–1.1269 bounce leg.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1260, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1260 range cap breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1276 prior high in play
Failure to hold the 1.1184 range floor and the higher-lows line would expose the 1.1113 month low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC (Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read out of compression
Recapture of the 1.1226 lower high would return price above the EMAs inside the range
09:01 UTC
Range after downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.12064
1.1185–1.1270 range, lower highs over a flat floor.
The lower-high, lower-low sequence from 1.1380 bottomed at the 1.1113 swing low mid-month. Since then price has rotated inside a 1.1185–1.1270 range, with highs stepping lower from the 1.1269 swing high to the 1.1256 range high against a flat range floor near 1.1185. ATR(14) has compressed to about 22 pips from 40+ earlier in the window, and price sits marginally below flat, intertwined EMA20/EMA50. Friday's broad EZ PMI misses kept EUR heavy into the 1.12 area, while softer US yields have limited the downside.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1185 range floor resolves the compression lower and exposes the 1.1113 swing low
H4 close above the 1.1256 range high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1269 swing high in play
German IFO today, Fed decision Wed and ECB statement Thu could break the ATR compression in either direction
Holding above the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1113–1.1269 rally keeps the range read intact
05:01 UTC
Downtrend paused, sideways range · RSI 49 · price 1.12217
Range 1.1184–1.1269 with lower highs above a flat floor.
The slide from 1.1380 bottomed at the 1.1113 swing low. The rebound stalled at 1.1269, and since then EURUSD has held a range with lower highs at 1.1260/1.1256 above a flat range floor near 1.1184, which is essentially a compressing wedge. Friday's broad Eurozone PMI misses dragged price back toward the 1.1200 psych handle, but demand again absorbed the dip above the floor, which sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the rebound. ATR(14) has contracted to roughly 22 pips from 40-80 during the selloff, and price is hugging flattened EMA20/EMA50, consistent with pending expansion.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1184, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1184 range floor resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.1113 swing low (ING's 1.1120)
H4 close above the 1.1256 lower highs and the 1.1269 range top breaks the descending cap on the range
Loss of the 1.1200 psych handle would put the range floor under immediate test
German IFO at 09:00 UTC today, Lagarde on Tuesday, and the ECB plus Wednesday's FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range 1.1185-1.1260 with lower highs over flat lows.
The slide from 1.1390 bottomed at the 1.1113 swing low and has since given way to a 1.5-week range. The range low at 1.1185 has held four times, near the 50-61.8% zone of the rebound fib, while lower highs off 1.1269 keep compressing price under the 1.1260 range high. Friday's broad EZ PMI misses pushed price back toward the range low without a break. Price is now hovering at the 1.1200 psych level, between flat, converged EMA20/EMA50, and ATR(14) near 24 pips is well below the decline-phase regime.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1185, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1185 range low opens the 1.1113 swing low, near ING's 1.1120 re-test zone
H4 close above the 1.1260 range high and the lower-highs line invalidates the range read and exposes the 1.1285 prior high
Loss of the 1.1200 psych handle shifts trade toward the lower half of the range
Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; IFO Mon 09:00 UTC is the first test