Lower highs from 1.1195, compressing at session low.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1213 and the Ifo pop to 1.1216 faded within the hour. Pre-FOMC USD demand then pushed price into the 1.1173 NY low. The 17:15 UTC rebound stalled at the 1.1195 lower high, and price has slid back to the session low near 1.1172, now coiling in a 3-pip post-NY band with RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.1170 range floor extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 1.1186 ny bounce high, then the 1.1195 lower high, neutralises the intraday downtrend
1.1200 round number caps any recovery toward the 50–61.8% fib of the 1.1195 to session-low leg
ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) could break the Asia-session compression
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the day low · RSI 33 · price 1.11725
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight post-NY range at the lows.
EUR/USD broke under the Asian range low (1.1213) in early London. The Ifo spike to 1.1216 faded, and pre-FOMC USD demand built a lower-highs chain, with the NY high at 1.1195 capped near the 50% retracement. Price is now pinned in a 4-pip post-NY band between the day low at 1.1172 and the range top at 1.1176, just above the 1.1170 round number, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.11719, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11759, 1.11828, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1170 round number extends the lower-low chain into the digest's 1.1170 range floor
Close above the 1.1183 lower high breaks the micro lower-highs sequence; the 1.1195 NY high sits above it
Move through the 1.1176 range top would end the post-NY compression
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC during London could shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 30 · price 1.11725
Lower highs from the London high; tight Asia band at the day low.
Monday's London selling from the 1.1216 london high faded the Ifo beat as pre-FOMC USD buying set in, and the NY bounce stalled at 1.1195 for another lower high. Early Asia is now compressing in a 4-pip band at the 1.1172 day low, just above the 1.1170 round number, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.11721, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.1195, 1.12159
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1172 day low and 1.1170 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.1186 swing high (61.8% fib of the NY-high decline) breaks the grind lower; the 1.1195 ny high and lower highs trendline sit above
Sustained move back over the 1.1216 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC, US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 37 · price 1.1174
Lower highs from 1.1216, holding near the 1.1172 day low.
EURUSD fell from the 1.1216 London high through 1.1200 as the dollar firmed into the FOMC, printing a day low at 1.1172 in late NY. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1195 swing high, and early Asia is now compressing just above the day low with ATR(14) shrunk to about 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1183, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1172 day low and the 1.1170 range floor extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1183 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 1.1195 swing high
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number retraces over half the London leg and undoes the London breakdown
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat at the lows · RSI 31 · price 1.11741
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight Asia consolidation at the low.
EUR gave back the Ifo spike to 1.1216 and broke the 1.1200 round number in London on pre-FOMC dollar buying. The NY bounce stalled at a lower high near 1.1195. Early Asia is now compressing on the window low around 1.1172, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) about 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.11721, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11828, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1172 window low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1170 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1183 prior swing, then 1.1195, would break the lower-high sequence on the trendline
ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) Tuesday could materially shift this read; FOMC follows Wednesday
London broke the 1.1202 Asian range low, and the post-Ifo pop to 1.1216 was faded as pre-FOMC dollar buying took EURUSD to a 1.1173 low in NY. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1195 ny high and price has bled back to retest the session low in thin early-Asia trade, RSI(14) near 29 and ATR compressed to ~2 pips.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.1172 session low exposes the 1.1170 range floor flagged in the digest
Recovery through the 1.1186 bounce high (61.8% fib) would break the lower-high trendline and neutralise the downtrend read
A move back above the 1.1195 ny high and the 1.1200 round number would put price back inside Monday's broken range
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1216; price holding just above 1.1172 day low after NY close.
Early-London gains after the Ifo beat faded from the 1.1216 London high as the USD firmed into the Fed. The NY bounce met rejection at 1.1195, a lower high at the 50% retracement of the London-to-NY decline. After the NY close, price is grinding along the 1.1172 day low below the 1.1180 range floor, RSI(14) near 31 and ATR down to roughly 3 pips in thin post-close trade.
Support: 1.11721, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.12159
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1180 range floor would weaken the breakdown read
A break of the 1.1195 lower high, at the 50% retracement, invalidates the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.1172 day low exposes the 1.1170 round number flagged in the digest
Asian range development overnight; Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risks
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1202 and the slide reached 1.1173 by NY open as USD firmed into the Fed. The 16:30 UTC bounce stalled at a 1.1195 lower high, and price has since faded back to the 1.1173 session low. It is flat there in thin post-NY trade with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.11729, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.11857, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 session low exposes the 1.1170 round number and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.1180 ex-support, near the 38.2% of the 1.1195-1.1173 fib, shifts the read to consolidation
Close above the 1.1186 ny swing hi and the 1.1195 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
No scheduled data through Asia session; ECB lending survey 09:00 UTC is the next EUR risk
Lower highs from London; testing NY session low post-close.
A firm USD into the Fed drove a London break of the 1.1202 Asian low and a slide to the 1.1173 day low in the NY session. The afternoon bounce stalled at the 50% retrace of the London-NY decline near the 1.1195 bounce high. Price now sits on the day low, below 1.1180 prior support, in thin post-NY trade with ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.11729, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1180 prior support would neutralise the break of the band floor
Clean break of the 1.1173 day low exposes the 1.1150 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1195 bounce high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
US Durables (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from London open, day low under retest late NY.
The Asian range of 1.1213–1.1226 gave way at London open, and the post-Ifo lift faded as USD firmed into the Fed. The 1.1180 broken sup has since capped price. The NY rebound stalled at a 1.1195 lower high, and late NY has slipped back to retest the 1.1173 day low with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.11857, 1.1195
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1173 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1170 psych level
A reclaim of the 1.1180 broken sup and the 1.1186 bounce high would stall the sequence; a close above the 1.1195 lower high breaks it
Asia session liquidity is thin. Tuesday's ECB lending survey and Lagarde speech are the next EUR drivers
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, retesting day low · RSI 40 · price 1.11735
Lower highs from London high; NY low retest underway after NY close.
Monday's Ifo-led gains faded through London as the USD extended its short-covering bid into the Fed. The pair slid from the 1.1216 London high through 1.1180 old support to a 1.1173 day low in the first hour of NY. The bounce capped at the 1.1195 lower high, near the 50% retracement of that leg, and price is back on the day low in thin post-NY-close trade.
Support: 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1216
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1173 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 area flagged in the digest
A reclaim of 1.1180 old support, then a break above the 1.1195 lower high, would invalidate the lower-highs read
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the Fed decision follows Wed 18:00 UTC
Lower highs from 1.1216 London high; session low under retest late NY.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1202 and slid to a 1.1173 session low in early NY as USD extended its pre-Fed short-covering with DXY above 102.00. The NY bounce stalled at 1.1195, near the 50% retracement of the drop, and the lower-highs sequence held. Price faded back to retest the session low into the close.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 session low confirms a lower-low, and opens the path to the 1.1150 round number
Reclaiming 1.1180 prior support, the floor flagged in the digest, would ease downside pressure
A move above the 1.1195 NY high breaks the lower-high line and the downtrend read
Thin Asia session liquidity; Tuesday's US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) could shift this read
Lower-high chain from the Asian high; late NY retesting the day low.
The Ifo-helped Asian high at 1.1226 faded as USD firmed. London broke the Asian range low at 1.1202 and NY extended to a 1.1173 day low, breaking the 1.1180 prior supp. The bounce stalled at 1.1195, a lower high near the fib 38.2%, and late NY has drifted back to retest the day low on contracting ranges.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 round number
Reclaim of 1.1180 prior supp would flag a failed breakdown; a close above the 1.1195 lower high breaks the lower-highs line
Thin Asia session ahead; Tuesday's Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; LH/LL chain, retesting session low.
The 1.1202–1.1226 Asian range gave way at London open as the USD firmed toward DXY 102.00 and the Ifo-led EUR bid faded. Lower highs since then sit at the 1.1216 london high and the 1.1195 ny high, under a descending trendline. After the NY close, price is back on the 1.1173 session low with RSI(14) near 28, below the 1.1180 old support the digest flagged.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.12159
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1170
A close back above 1.1180 old support and the trendline near 1.1187 breaks the lower-high sequence
A push through the 1.1195 ny high (38.2% fib zone) would negate the London-to-NY decline structure
Tue: Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The post-Ifo pop to 1.1216 faded, London broke the 1.1202 Asian low and NY printed a 1.1173 session low as USD firmed pre-Fed. The late-NY rebound was rejected at 1.1195, a lower high at the 50% retracement, and price is back retesting the session low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.1195, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1170
Close back above the 1.1186 range cap and the lower-high trendline shifts the read to a range; reclaiming 1.1195 breaks the lower-high sequence
Asian low at 1.1202 is the upper boundary of today's breakdown
ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst; durable goods and Lagarde follow Tue afternoon, FOMC Wed
London broke the 1.1202 asian low as the USD firmed into the Fed, fading early Ifo/Moody's relief, and the slide ran to a 1.1173 session low. The NY bounce stalled at the 50% fib retrace near the 1.1195 ny high and rolled over. Late NY now retests the session low below 1.1180, with RSI(14) near 41 and well short of oversold.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11828, 1.1195, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1170 psych
Reclaiming the 1.1183 intraday cap, then the 1.1195 ny high and descending trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence
Asian low 1.1202 is the level that would void the intraday downtrend read
Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC), US durables (Tue 12:30 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; NY low followed by rising lows.
The weekend gap above 1.1200 was filled in London as early Ifo-led gains faded against a firmer USD. NY then printed a 1.1173 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.1195 swing high under the lower highs line. Price has given back about 70% of that bounce, sits on the 1.1178 higher low with the 1.1186 ny cap overhead, and RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 1.1178, 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1173 session low breaks the rising lows and extends the downtrend sequence toward 1.1170.
A reclaim of the 1.1186 ny cap and the 1.1195 swing high breaks the lower highs line, with the 1.1200 round number above.
Thin liquidity after the NY close as the Asian range forms; Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next scheduled event risks.
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY fade after a failed bounce · RSI 47 · price 1.11797
Lower highs below the Asian low; price retesting the 1.1175–1.1173 base.
A firmer USD pushed EUR/USD through the Asian low at 1.1202 from London open. The session low printed at 1.1173 during the London-NY transition. The NY bounce stalled at 1.1195, a lower high at the 50% fib of the drop from the 1.1216 London high, and price has faded back to 1.1180 late in NY, just above the 1.1175 higher low.
Support: 1.11753, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1202, 1.12159
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 session low confirms a lower-low and breaks the 1.1180 area flagged as support
Reclaim of the 1.1195 lower high and the 1.1202 Asian low would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure at the lower-high trendline keeps the London high at 1.1216 out of reach
Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1226 Asian high, retesting NY day low.
Monday's gap-up faded as USD firmed into the Fed. London broke the 1.1202 Asian low and NY printed a 1.1173 day low. The afternoon bounce stalled at 1.1195, a lower high, and price has retraced about 73% of it after London close, now sitting below ema20 at 1.1185 and back on the 1.1173–1.1175 lows.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1195, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 day low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1170 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.1185 and a close above the 1.1195 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
1.1202 asian low is the first overhead pivot if the lows hold
Thin Asia session ahead; Tuesday's Lagarde speech and US data are next catalysts before Wednesday's FOMC
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 49 · price 1.11817
Lower highs from 1.1226; double low 1.1173/1.1175 holding.
The Ifo spike to the 1.1216 ifo high was faded as the USD firmed, with lower highs through London and NY down to a 1.1173 session low and a 1.1175 higher low. The late-NY bounce was rejected at the 1.1195 bounce high, near the 50% fib, and price has slipped back to 1.1182 into the quiet post-NY hours.
Support: 1.11753, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.12159
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1173 session low and 1.1175 higher low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 band
Reclaim of the 1.1195 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1216 ifo high back in view
Tue ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC, US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could reset this intraday read
Lower highs from 1.1216; bounce capped at 50% fib.
The Sunday gap up to the 1.1226 Asian high fully reversed as the Ifo lift faded and USD firmed. London broke the 1.1203 london low and NY printed a 1.1173 day low. The bounce after London close was rejected at 1.1195, the 50% fib of the 1.1216–1.1173 leg, and price is drifting back toward the 1.1180 ny pivot.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1203
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1180 ny pivot exposes the 1.1173 day low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 1.1195 50% fib and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the downtrend read and brings the 1.1203 london low into play
ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) are the next EUR catalysts that could shift this read
Lower highs from London high; double bottom off session low, neckline retest.
The weekend gap filled in Asia. London then broke the 1.1202 asian low as the Ifo beat faded on a firmer USD pre-FOMC, extending to a 1.1173 session low in NY. A double bottom off 1.1173/1.1175 lifted price to the 1.1195 bounce high near the 50% fib of the drop from the 1.1216 london high, and after London close price is retesting the 1.1186 neckline with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 1.11857, 1.11753, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1202, 1.12159
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 neckline puts the 1.1175 higher low and 1.1173 session low back in play
Close above the 1.1195 bounce high and 1.1202 asian low breaks the lower-highs trendline from the london high
ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) Tuesday could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; higher low at 1.1175 after NY low, lower high at 1.1195.
The Ifo-driven lift to the 1.1216 London high faded as the USD rebounded. Price broke the 1.1202 Asian low and the 1.1180 area, reaching a NY low of 1.1173. A higher low at 1.1175 fed a bounce that stalled at 1.1195, the 50% fib of the drop, and price is now drifting late in NY just above the 1.1182 breakout point, RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1202, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1182 breakout point puts the 1.1173 NY low and rising support back in play
Close above the 1.1195 lower high (50% fib) opens the 1.1202 Asian low, then the 1.1216 London high
Failure to hold 1.1173 extends the lower-low sequence and negates the double bottom
Quiet calendar overnight; Tue ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC) and US durable goods (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risks
London lower-highs into 1.1173 day low; NY higher low and bounce to the 50% retracement.
London broke the 1.1202 asian low and extended to a 1.1173 day low as the Ifo-driven EUR lift faded and USD firmed. NY printed a double bottom at 1.1173–1.1175, cleared the 1.1184 ny pivot and stalled at the 1.1195 ny high, the 50% retracement of the London decline, late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1202, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1202 asian low reclaims the London breakdown level and opens the 1.1216 london high
Loss of the 1.1184 ny pivot puts the 1.1173 day low back in play; a break below it negates the double bottom
Tue ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off NY low · RSI 60 · price 1.11913
Lower highs from Asian high; double bottom 1.1173/1.1175 with neckline break, stalling at 50% fib.
EUR/USD broke the Asian range low near 1.1202 in London as the USD firmed and France concerns faded the Ifo lift, bottoming at the 1.1173 swing low in NY. A double bottom cleared its 1.1186 neckline after London close, but the rebound stalled at 1.1195, the 50% fib of the london high-to-low drop, with price just under EMA50.
Support: 1.11857, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11946, 1.1200, 1.12159
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1195 50% fib and the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1216 london high
Loss of the 1.1186 neckline and the rising support from the 15:45 low negates the double bottom and puts the 1.1173 swing low back in focus
Tue ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC) and US durable goods (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risk ahead of the FOMC and ECB
Double bottom breakout above 1.1186, testing 50% retrace of the London drop.
The Ifo-driven pop to the 1.1216 Ifo high faded through London as USD firmed. The slide broke the Asian range low and bottomed at the 1.1173 session low around the NY open. After London close, a double bottom (1.1173, then a higher low at 1.1175) resolved through the 1.1186 neckline, and price is now pressing the 50% fib of the drop at 1.1195, where EMA50 also sits.
Support: 1.11857, 1.11753, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.1200, 1.12159
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib / EMA50 at 1.1195 opens the 1.1200 round number, which coincides with the 61.8% retrace
Acceptance above 1.1200 brings the 1.1216 Ifo high back into view
Slip back below the 1.1186 neckline negates the double bottom and puts the 1.1175 higher low and 1.1173 session low back in play
No scheduled events in the next 8h; ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC Tue is the next EUR risk
17:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 54 · price 1.11909
Double bottom at NY low, neckline 1.1186 cleared; London high 1.1216 still the last lower high.
London faded from the post-Ifo london high at 1.1216 and broke 1.1200 as the USD rebounded, extending to an ny low of 1.1173 at the NY open. A higher low at 1.1175 formed a double bottom, and late NY has closed above the 1.1186 neckline into the 38.2% retrace near 1.1190, with the 1.1200 round number (61.8%) next overhead.
Support: 1.11857, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12159
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1186 neckline undoes the double bottom breakout
Loss of the 1.1173 ny low breaks the higher-lows line and resumes lower lows from the London high
Acceptance above the 1.1200 round number (61.8% retrace) opens the london high at 1.1216
Tue ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC and US durables 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.1182
Lower highs from Asian high, now a tight 1.1173–1.1186 range.
Monday's Asian high at 1.1226 gave way from London open. The Ifo-driven bounce to the 1.1216 ifo high was sold as USD firmed into the Fed/ECB week, and NY printed a session low at 1.1173. Late NY, price is ranging 1.1173–1.1186, with a higher low at 1.1175 and three rejections at the ny cap, which sits at the 23.6% fib of the Asian-high move.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1186, 1.1200, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 ny cap breaks the late-NY range and opens the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1175 higher low and 1.1173 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1170 range floor
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk ahead of Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC
16:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 46 · price 1.11839
Lower highs from London; higher low under the 1.1186 NY high.
London faded the Asian range, filled the Sunday gap at the 1.1200 round number, and extended the slide into the first hour of NY to a 1.1173 session low as the USD firmed into the Fed. Late NY is basing, with a higher low at 1.1175 and the ny high at 1.1186 capping twice. RSI(14) sits near 46 and price is pinned just under EMA20.
Support: 1.11753, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 ny high turns the late-NY base into a double bottom and opens the 1.1195–1.1200 fib/round number zone
Break of the 1.1175 higher low and the 1.1173 session low resumes the London-NY downtrend
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; Asian range broken lower, tight NY range.
The weekend gap higher on the Moody's France reprieve faded as the USD firmed. London broke the 1.1202 Asian low, and NY extended to a 1.1173 session low. Since then price has held a 1.1175–1.1186 range, with the NY high capping twice and a higher low at 1.1175. RSI(14) is neutral near 44, and the chain of lower highs down to 1.1197 is intact.
Support: 1.11753, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.11971, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 NY high breaks the intraday range cap; the 1.1197 lower high sits near the 50% fib of the London high-session low drop
Failure below the 1.1175 higher low and the 1.1173 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 range floor cited in the digest
A recovery back above the 1.1202 Asian low would undo the London range break
ECB Bank Lending Survey at Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk; the Asian session ahead is light on data
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 1.11791
Lower highs since 09:15 UTC, Asian range broken lower, tight base 1.1173–1.1186.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1202 as the Ifo-driven EUR lift faded and USD firmed. NY extended the London drop to a 1.1173 session low, through the 1.1180 support zone. Price is now compressing between the 1.1175 swing low and the 1.1186 lower high, under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.11753, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1175 swing low and 1.1173 session low extends the downtrend
Retrace into the 50% of the London drop fib near 1.1195 would test the move's strength
Low-volatility Asia session ahead; Tuesday's Lagarde speech and the Fed later in the week could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; Asian range broken lower, tight base above session low.
A post-Ifo bounce failed at 1.1216, and London then broke the Asian low at 1.1202 as the USD firmed into the Fed. NY extended the drop to a 1.1173 session low. Two rebounds capped at the 1.1186 bounce high keep the lower highs intact, with price back near the low into London close and RSI(14) around 34.
Support: 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.11935, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1186 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1173 session low extends the downtrend into the 1.1170 area
Reclaim of the fib 38.2% at 1.1194 (Asian high to session low) would signal a deeper correction
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk; Fed Wed and ECB Thu loom over the week
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken lower.
London opened with a break below the 1.1202–1.1226 Asian range. NY extended the slide through Friday's low to a session low at 1.1173 as the Ifo-driven EUR gains faded on the USD rebound. Bounces were rejected twice at the 1.1186 lower high under the descending trendline, and price sits back near the session low with RSI(14) at 33.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.11891, 1.11971
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1170 round number, the base of the 1.1180–1.1170 support band.
A recovery above the 1.1186 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday sequence; Friday low at 1.1189, then the 1.1197 swing high, sit above.
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) are the next catalysts that could shift this read.
Asian range broken lower in London; NY lower-low at 1.1173, bounce capped at 1.1186.
The Moody's-driven weekend gap higher faded as USD firmed. London broke the 1.1202 asian low and filled Friday's gap, and NY extended to a 1.1173 ny low. The bounce was rejected twice at the 1.1186 lower high, the 23.6% fib, under a descending trendline, and price is back near the low with RSI(14) at 31 and the 1.1170 range floor just below.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.11935, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 ny low extends the lower-low chain into the 1.1170 range floor
Close above the 1.1186 lower high and descending trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the 1.1194 38.2% fib
Reclaim of the 1.1202 asian low would neutralise today's London-NY breakdown
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR driver
15:17 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 40 · price 1.11842
Lower highs and lows from London open; post-low higher low at 1.1179.
The Ifo-led Asian bid faded on broad USD strength. EUR/USD broke the 1.1206 Asian range low into London, filled the weekend gap and printed lower highs and lows to a 1.1173 NY low, pressing the 1.1180–1.1170 support zone flagged in the digest. The NY bounce has poked above the London lower-highs trendline, but price is consolidating beneath the 1.1187 prior low and both EMAs. RSI(14) sits near 40.
Support: 1.11792, 1.11732, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1187, 1.11891, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1173 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1170 psych
Failure to hold the 1.1179 higher low returns focus to the NY low
Close above the 1.1187 prior low and 1.1189 friday low (near the 38.2% fib) shifts the read to a deeper correction toward 1.1200 round number
Tue durable goods (12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled USD catalyst; Lagarde follows at 17:00 UTC
Lower highs and lows since London open; Asian range broken lower.
The Moody's France relief gap faded through London. Price broke the Asian low at 1.1202 and Friday's low at 1.1189 as USD firmed into the Fed week, then printed a 1.1173 session low in the first hour of NY. Price is now holding a minor shelf at 1.1180 under the 1.1186 bounce high, a shallow ~30% retrace of the London-NY decline, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11857, 1.11891, 1.1202
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1170
An M15 close above the 1.1186 bounce high and Friday low at 1.1189 brings the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY decline at ~1.1190 into play
Reclaiming the Asian low at 1.1202 would neutralise today's breakdown
Losing the minor shelf at 1.1180 puts the session low back in focus
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; the ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC) is the next EUR event risk
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off NY low · RSI 39 · price 1.11846
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since London, NY extension to 1.1173.
London faded the Moody's/IFO gap-up, broke the Asian low at 1.1202 and set a lower high at 1.1216. The NY open then took out Friday's low at 1.1189 to a 1.1173 session low as USD firmed into the Fed. Price has bounced about 11 pips back to the 1.1180–1.1185 range floor, and RSI(14) has recovered to ~39 from oversold readings.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11891, 1.1202, 1.12159
What it said to watch
A close back above the friday low at 1.1189 would make the NY dip a false break of the range floor; 38.2% fib sits near 1.1194
Rejection under 1.1189 followed by a break of the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low chain
The 1.1202 asian low and the 1.1216 lower high cap any recovery during NY hours
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR input; no listed releases inside the next 8h
Lower highs and lower lows since London; Asian range and Friday low broken.
Monday's gap higher on the Moody's France reprieve, which ran to 1.1226, has fully reversed. London broke the Asian low at 1.1202, and the drop extended through the Friday low at 1.1189 and the 1.1180 range floor to a 1.1173 session low in the first hours of NY as USD firmed into the Fed. The bounce from that low is now pressing the descending trendline off the London high, with RSI(14) recovering from the mid-30s.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1189, 1.1202, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1189 Friday low and the descending trendline would turn the move below the range floor into a false break
A break of the 1.1173 session low would extend the lower-low chain
A bounce stalling at the 38.2% retracement near 1.1190 keeps the lower-high sequence intact; the Asian low at 1.1202 and the London high at 1.1216 cap above
Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC, the Fed Wed and the ECB Thu are the next event risks
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce off session low · RSI 33 · price 1.11825
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1226 Asian high; Asian range and Friday low broken.
London broke below the 1.1213–1.1226 Asian range, then lost the 1.1189 Friday low as USD firmed ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. The NY open printed a session low at 1.1173 before price recovered to the 1.1180 support band. RSI(14) near 33, and a descending line from the 1.1216 London high caps the bounce around 1.1185.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11891, 1.11971
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending line and the 1.1189 friday low would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1197 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1173 session low extends the lower-low chain below the 1.1180 support band
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into early NY · RSI 23 · price 1.11757
Lower highs and lower lows since 02:30 UTC; Asian range broken lower.
Monday's early EUR bid faded through London, with the Asian range low at 1.1202 giving way and a lower-high chain carrying the sell-off into early NY as USD firmed ahead of FOMC. The 1.1180 round number broke at 13:45 UTC for a session low at 1.1173. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, and the noon lows at 1.1187 now sit overhead.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1187, 1.11971
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1187 noon lows would mark the 1.1180 round-number break as a false break
A close above the 1.1197 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1173 session low exposes the 1.1170 psych level
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Tue Durable Goods and Wed FOMC are the next event risk
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 1.11827
Lower highs from 1.1216, Friday low broken into NY.
EUR/USD has erased the Monday opening gap and the IFO-led bid. Since the 1.1216 swing high it has printed lower highs under a falling trendline, broke the Asian low at 1.1203, then the Friday low at 1.1189, as USD firmed into the NY open. The session low at 1.1177 is probing the 1.1180–1.1185 support flagged in the digest, and RSI(14) near 23 reads oversold.
Support: 1.11774, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11891, 1.12027, 1.12159
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the friday low at 1.1189 and the falling trendline would ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1177 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1150 round number
A retrace into the 38.2–50% fib of the 1.1216–1.1177 drop (1.1192–1.1197) is the first test for supply
Reclaiming the asian low at 1.1203 would negate the range break
No scheduled data in the next 8h; USD Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC are the next event risk
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY · RSI 27 · price 1.11852
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
Early gains after the IFO beat faded. London broke the asian low at 1.1202, and the NY session has extended the lower-high chain through the friday low at 1.1189 to a 1.1181 session low as USD firms into Fed week. Price is pressing the 1.1180–1.1185 support band below the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 1.11807
Resistance: 1.11891, 1.11971, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the friday low at 1.1189 and the falling trendline undercuts the downtrend read
A break of the 1.1181 session low extends the lower-low sequence below the 1.1180–1.1185 band
Recovery through the 1.1197 swing high, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaiming the asian low at 1.1202 would turn the range break into a false break
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR input
Lower highs/lower lows since London open, Asian range broken lower.
London broke the asian low at 1.1202 and stepped through the friday low at 1.1189. The move erased the Monday gap and capped each bounce with lower highs. The IFO-beat bounce stalled at 1.1216 as USD firmed pre-Fed, and price is now pressing the session low at 1.1185 into the NY open with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 1.11851, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.11891, 1.11971, 1.1202
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1197 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.1180 round number, the support cited in the macro digest, extends the session-low sequence
A reclaim of the 1.1202 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) are the next catalysts
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 1.11909
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain since the 09:15 UTC London high.
The Sunday gap above Friday's 1.1200 close filled in London. Price broke the Asian low at 1.1202 and printed a lower-high chain off the 1.1216 London high, unwinding the IFO/Moody's bounce as USD firms ahead of the FOMC. The 1.1187 session low has held on two tests into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 31 and the 1.1197 lower high capping.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1202, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1187 session low opens the 1.1180 zone flagged as support in the macro read
Reclaim of the 1.1197 lower high and the 1.1202 Asian low would negate the range-break read
Only a move back through the 1.1216 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and the London leg structure
ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC) is the next scheduled risk; no data due during the NY session
London broke below the Asian range; lower-high chain into a fresh session low.
London erased the weekend gap and broke the 1.1203 Asian low. A failed bounce at the 1.1216 London high turned into a lower-high sequence and a 1.1187 session low, which briefly swept Friday's 1.1189 low before a shallow bounce. The IFO-beat EUR bid has faded as USD firms into the FOMC, with RSI(14) near 27 ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1203, 1.1216
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1197 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low exposes the 1.1180 support zone
Reclaim of the 1.1203 Asian low, the 38.2–61.8% band of the London leg, shifts the read to range
NY open in ~45 min with no scheduled US data in the next 8h; Fed and ECB pricing remain the cross-current
12:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.11936
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain, swept Friday low.
The Monday open gap up has fully reversed. London broke the Asian low at 1.1202 and extended a lower-high chain into a sweep of Friday's low, printing a 1.1187 session low that drew a wick-rejection, with USD firming as shorts were trimmed ahead of the Fed. Price sits back under 1.1200 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 31, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.1216, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1202 asian low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1187 session low exposes the 1.1180 zone
Lower-highs trendline, now near 1.1211, and the 1.1216 lower high cap any NY-session bounce
Only a close above the 1.1226 asian high reverses the intraday structure
No scheduled data in the next 8h; ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC is the next event risk
Weekend gap reversed; Asian low broken, Friday low swept.
Monday's weekend gap higher on the Moody's France relief has fully reversed. London broke the 1.1202 asian low, and a lower high at the 1.1216 swing high gave way to a dip through Friday's low to a 1.1187 session low into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) sits near 31 as USD firms into the Fed, with the falling trendline from the 1.1226 asian high still capping.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1187 session low exposes the 1.1180 round number, the flagged 1.1180–1.1185 support
Reclaim of the 1.1202 asian low would mark the dip under Friday's low as a false break
Close above the 1.1216 swing high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
NY open and Fed-week USD short-trimming could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.11935
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain into NY open.
Monday's gap higher on the Moody's/IFO relief has fully faded. The Asian high at 1.1226 capped price, and London broke the Asian low at 1.1202, filling Friday's gap as USD firmed into the FOMC. The lower high at 1.1216 extends the descending trendline, and price is pressing the 1.1193 session low into the NY open with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.11928, 1.11891, 1.1182
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1202 asian low negates the range break
Break below the 1.1189 friday low exposes the 1.1180–1.1185 support zone
Reclaim of the 1.1216 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the LH/LL chain
RSI(14) under 30 alongside a hold at the session low would flag a stretched move; a 50% fib retracement of the drop sits near 1.1210
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.11959
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian/London lows and 1.12 broken.
London has reversed the Monday gap-up and Asian rally that followed the IFO beat and Moody's France reprieve. After a lower high at 1.1216 (london high) under the 1.1226 asian high, price broke the 1.1203 London low and the 1.12 handle and is now sitting on the 1.1195 session low mid-London, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.11948, 1.11874
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.12 handle would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1195 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1187 friday low
Only a reclaim of the 1.1216 london high breaks the lower-high sequence from the asian high
No scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h; Tue ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 1.11957
Weekend gap filled; London broke below Asian low and 1.12 psych.
Monday's weekend gap up from 1.1200 has fully filled. London faded the IFO-beat pop at 1.1216 (ifo high), then broke the Asian low at 1.1202 and the 1.12 psych to print a session low at 1.1195. Lower highs from the 1.1226 Asian high define the move; RSI(14) near 35 is not stretched, and the Friday low at 1.1187 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.11951, 1.11874
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1202 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1195 session low exposes the 1.1187 Friday low
Recovery through the 1.1216 ifo high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and the Wed FOMC are the next catalysts for the 1.12 handle
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.11981
Asian range broken to downside; lower highs and lower lows through London.
London faded Monday's EUR relief bid. Price broke below the 1.1202 Asian low and filled the weekend gap through 1.1200. The IFO-beat bounce was rejected at 1.1216, a lower high under the descending trendline from the 1.1226 Asian high, and price now sits on the 1.1197 session low late in London with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.11965, 1.11874
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1202 Asian low puts the range break in doubt; above the 1.1216 lower high voids the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1197 session low exposes Friday's 1.1187 prior low, near the 1.1185 support cited in the digest
A bounce stalling near the 50% fib (1.1211) of the Asia-London drop keeps the lower-high sequence intact
No scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h; the ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC) is the next scheduled risk
Lower highs and lower lows through London; Asian range broken to the downside.
Monday's 19-pip opening gap is now filled. EUR/USD slipped through the 1.1202 Asian low to the 1.1200 round number, printing lower highs off the 1.1226 Asian high. The IFO-beat spike to the 1.1216 London high met rejection within the hour, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11874
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1187 Friday low
Reclaim of the 1.1216 London high breaks the lower-high trendline from the Asian high
Back above the 1.1202 Asian low restores the gap-fill bounce read
No scheduled data in the next 8h. Tuesday's ECB lending survey at 09:00 UTC is the next event risk.
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.1203
Monday gap filled; London range 1.1200–1.1216 under a lower-highs trendline.
Monday's opening gap above Friday's close is fully filled. London tagged the 1.1200 gap fill twice after a rejection at the 1.1216 London high, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 1.1226 Asian high. The IFO beat has not lifted EUR. Price is mid-London, below EMA20/50 and a lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1200 gap fill extends the lower-low sequence toward the friday low at 1.1187
Close above the 1.1216 london high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the intraday downtrend
Recovery through the 1.1226 asian high would reopen the session range top
No scheduled EUR/USD data before Tue's ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC); NY open is the next liquidity test of 1.1200
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 35 · price 1.12018
Lower highs since 1.1226, Sunday gap filled at 1.1200.
Sunday's ~19-pip gap up has been fully unwound in London, with price back at the 1.1200 gap fill (Friday close). The IFO-beat bounce was rejected at the 1.1216 ifo high, near the 61.8% of the slide from the 1.1226 asian high. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) around 35, not yet stretched.
Support: 1.12005, 1.11874
Resistance: 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1200 gap fill extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1187 friday low
Reclaiming the 1.1216 ifo high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Above 1.1216, the 1.1226 asian high is the next reference
No scheduled data before Tuesday's ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC); NY session flows set the tone into the close
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off the Asian peak · RSI 35 · price 1.12041
Lower highs pressing a flat floor at 1.1203; weekend gap almost fully faded.
The Moody's/IFO relief gap above Friday's 1.1200 close peaked at the 1.1226 Asian high and has been faded. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, with the latest rejection at the 1.1216 lower high in the second hour of London. Price is back on the 1.1203 session low with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.12027, 1.12005, 1.11874
Resistance: 1.12159, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1200 completes the gap fill and exposes the 1.1187 friday low
M15 close above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1226 asian high
No data due in the next 8h. Iran/oil headlines are the main intraday risk ahead of Tue's ECB lending survey and US durables
10:01 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asian high, basing above 1.1200 · RSI 46 · price 1.12117
London low 1.1203 matching Asian low 1.1202, lower highs from 1.1226.
Monday opened with a ~19-pip gap above the 1.1200 Friday close on Moody's relief for France. The Asia session peaked at the 1.1226 Asian high. London sold off into a 1.1203 London low that held just above the 1.1202 Asian low, forming a double bottom. The rebound stalled at the 1.1216 London high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib retrace and under the falling trendline. Price is pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1200, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1202 breaks the London low / Asian low double bottom and puts the gap-fill toward the 1.1200 Friday close in play, with the 1.1187 Friday low below
Close above the 1.1216 London high and the falling trendline reopens the 1.1226 Asian high
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main swing risk ahead of the ECB and Fed decisions later this week
Gap-up Asia high at 1.1226, London double bottom at 1.1203, rebound to fib midpoint.
Monday opened with a gap above Friday's 1.1200 close on the Moody's France affirmation and softer yields. Asia ran to the 1.1226 Asia high, then London sold back to a 1.1203 London low, a double bottom just above the 1.1200 gap fill. Price has rebounded to the 50% fib of that drop near 1.1214 and is back above the ema20, but capped just under EMA50 (~1.1216), with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1203, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 swing high breaks the descending highs and reopens the 1.1226 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.1203 London low exposes the 1.1200 gap fill and negates the double bottom
Rejection at the 50% fib and a close back below the ema20 at 1.1212 would point to a range back toward the London low
German IFO actual not yet in feed; a miss could reinforce the soft-PMI EUR read during the London session
09:31 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off London low · RSI 46 · price 1.12124
Double bottom at 1.1203 inside Asian range, testing 1.1212 neckline.
Monday's weekend gap opened above Friday's 1.1200 close. Asia then ran to the 1.1226 asian high on the Moody's France relief before London sold back to the 1.1203 london low, where buyers held twice. The 09:00 UTC bar, which coincided with the IFO release, lifted price to the 1.1212 neckline and the EMA20/50 cluster, about a 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1200, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.1217 (61.8% fib) confirms the double bottom and reopens the 1.1226 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1203 london low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the unfilled weekend gap, with the friday low at 1.1187 below
German IFO actual (09:00 release, not yet in feed) could shift the intraday read
Lower highs from Asian high, London low holding at 1.1203.
Monday's opening gap above Friday's 1.1200 close has nearly filled. London sold off from the Asian high at 1.1226 and found demand twice at the 1.1203 London low, just above the Asian low. The early-London bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 1.1212, and the Moody's France relief bid has faded with the IFO actual not yet in the feed.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1200, 1.1187
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1219, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1203 London low and 1.1202 Asian low completes the gap fill toward 1.1200, with the Friday low at 1.1187 next
Close above the 1.1212 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1219 lower high, then the 1.1226 Asian high
German IFO (actual pending vs 89.8 forecast) could shift this read; a miss echoes Friday's PMI weakness
09:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open, gap fading · RSI 36 · price 1.12068
Lower highs from Asian high 1.1226; London testing Asian low near 1.1202.
The weekend gap higher on Moody's sparing France has mostly faded. London open sold from 1.1216 into the Asian low at 1.1202, just shy of the 1.1200 Friday close, and the bounce stalled at the 1.1212 lower high, the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high-to-London low drop. Price is below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.1202, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12118, 1.12195, 1.12263
What it said to watch
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) lands on the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1202 asian low fills the gap to the 1.1200 friday close and extends the lower-high sequence
M15 close above the 1.1212 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the London selloff; the swing high at 1.1220 sits next, then the asian high at 1.1226
08:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, gap fading · RSI 36 · price 1.12066
Lower highs from Asian high, London low near gap fill.
The weekend gap up to 1.1220, driven by softer US yields, faded once London opened. Price slid from the 1.1226 asian high to a 1.1203 london low, just short of the 1.1200 gap fill at Friday's close. The bounce stalled at the 1.1212 bounce high, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 36 ahead of German IFO.
Support: 1.12032, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12118, 1.12263
What it said to watch
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1203 london low completes the 1.1200 gap fill
M15 close above the 1.1212 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line from the 1.1226 asian high
Asian range broken lower at London open, lower highs since 02:30 UTC.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1213 and retraced nearly all of the Asian rally, stalling at the 1.1203 London low just above the 1.1200 Friday close, so the weekend gap is almost filled despite the softer-dollar tone in the digest. The 08:00 bounce was capped under the old Asian low, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1226
What it said to watch
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read; a soft print echoes Friday's PMI misses
M15 close below the 1.1200 Friday close completes the gap fill and breaks the 1.1203 London low
Reclaim of the 1.1213 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and tests the lower highs line toward the 1.1226 Asian high
08:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high · RSI 27 · price 1.12041
Lower highs since 02:30 UTC; London open selloff testing the Asian low.
The weekend relief gap stalled at the 1.1226 Asian high. A string of lower highs and the selloff into London open have pulled price back to retest the 1.1202 Asian low. RSI(14) sits near 27, and the 1.1200 Friday close marks the gap fill just below.
Support: 1.1202, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12132, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 asian low opens the 1.1200 gap fill
Recovery above the 1.1213 breakdown level neutralises the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1226 asian high back in focus
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1226 Asian high; London open drove price to the Asian low.
The London open sold off the weekend-relief gap, a 23-pip slide from the 1.1226 Asian high to 1.1203, with price now pressing the 1.1202 Asian low just above the 1.12005 Friday close. RSI(14) is near 24 below both EMAs, and a chain of lower highs under the descending trendline frames the move back through the 1.1211 Friday high.
Support: 1.1202, 1.12005, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1226
What it said to watch
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read; a soft print echoing Friday's PMI misses fits the fading bounce
An M15 close below the 1.12005 Friday close completes the gap fill and exposes the 1.1184 Friday low
A recovery above the 1.1211 Friday high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain; 1.1226 Asian high caps above
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early London · RSI 27 · price 1.12068
Lower highs since 1.1226 Asian high; London open broke the 1.1213 prior low.
The weekend gap up from Friday's ~1.1200 close stretched to a 1.1226 Asian high on a softer USD. Supply capped that level, and the London open drove price to a 1.1206 session low, erasing about 80% of the Asian rally. Lower highs have formed since 02:30 UTC, and RSI(14) sits near 27 with the Asian low and gap fill just below.
Support: 1.12056, 1.1202, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12132, 1.12195, 1.12263
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1202 Asian low fills the weekend gap and exposes the Friday low at 1.1185
An M15 close back above the 1.1213 prior low and the lower-high trendline near 1.1220 negates the London-open selloff read
Acceptance above the 1.1226 Asian high reverses the rejection
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 34 · price 1.1211
Lower highs and lower lows since 02:30 UTC; London open trading in the lower Asian range.
Monday opened with a ~19-pip gap above Friday's close near 1.1200, then built a 1.1202–1.1226 Asian range as softer US yields weighed on USD. Since the 1.1226 Asian high, price has printed lower highs under a falling trendline. The London open pushed to a 1.1209 london low, right at the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.12085, 1.1202, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12195, 1.12263
What it said to watch
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read; a sub-89.5 print puts the asian low at 1.1202 in focus
M15 close below the 1.1202 asian low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the fri close at 1.1200, completing the gap fill
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 1.1219 lower high neutralises the intraday downtrend; a reclaim of the 1.1226 asian high re-opens the range top
07:16 UTC
Pullback inside Asian range, lower highs since 02:30 UTC · RSI 39 · price 1.12163
Asian range 1.1202–1.1226 intact; lower-high sequence off the Asian high, price at the 50% retracement into London open.
Sunday open gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close on softer USD and yields. Asia dipped to the 1.1202 asian low, nearly filling the gap, then ran to the 1.1226 asian high. Since then a lower-high sequence has pulled price back to the 1.1213 session low, the 50% retracement of the Asian leg, as London opens with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 session low opens the 1.1202 asian low and the remaining gap to Friday's close
Reclaim of the 1.1220 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Break above the 1.1226 asian high invalidates the pullback read
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Asia gap-up rally, fading into London open · RSI 44 · price 1.12182
Lower highs inside Asian range 1.1202–1.1226.
Monday opened about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close on softer US yields. The gap nearly filled at the 1.1202 Asian low before a run to the 1.1226 Asian high. Since then a chain of lower highs, capped by the descending trendline, has pulled price back to the 1.1213 pullback low near the 50% fib, with Friday high at 1.1211 just beneath and London open next.
Support: 1.12132, 1.12113, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12195, 1.12263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 lower high breaks the trendline and reopens the 1.1226 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1213 pullback low exposes the 1.1211 Friday high and the 1.1202 Asian low (gap fill)
German IFO at 09:00 GMT could shift this read; a miss would extend the soft-PMI narrative
06:46 UTC
Pullback inside Asian range after gap-up open · RSI 40 · price 1.12164
Lower highs from 1.1226 Asian high, testing 50–61.8% of Asian leg.
EUR/USD gapped about 19 pips higher at the Monday open as US yields eased. It held the 1.1202 asian low and ran to a 1.1226 asian high, then printed lower highs back into the 50–61.8% fib of that leg, with a 1.1213 swing low as the latest pivot. RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 3 pips reflect a thin pre-London drift below EMA20.
Support: 1.12132, 1.12113, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.12263
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1213 swing low and the 1.1211 friday high exposes the 1.1202 asian low and the unfilled part of the gap
M15 close above the lower highs trendline near 1.1220 invalidates the pullback read, with the 1.1226 asian high next
German IFO at 09:00 GMT (f/c 89.8) lands in the London morning and could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Pullback inside Asian range after gap-up open · RSI 34 · price 1.12142
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1226 Asian high, price at 50% retrace.
EURUSD opened Monday with a ~19-pip gap above Friday's 1.1200 close as US yields eased, then set a 1.1202–1.1226 Asian range. Since the 1.1226 Asian high, a chain of lower highs has pulled price back to the 50% retracement at 1.1214, testing the 1.1213 swing low with RSI(14) near 34 into the London open.
Support: 1.12134, 1.1202, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12208, 1.12263
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1213 swing low exposes the 1.1202 asian low and a gap fill toward 1.1200
Break of the lower-high trendline and close above 1.1221 resumes the push toward the 1.1226 asian high
Loss of 1.1200 puts the 1.1184 friday low in view
German IFO at 09:00 GMT; a miss would extend the soft-PMI narrative weighing on EUR
Lower highs from 1.1226 Asian high, still inside the 1.1202–1.1226 Asian range.
The weekend gap up from Friday's 1.1200 close was nearly filled at the 1.1202 Asian low before a rally to the 1.1226 Asian high. Late Asia session has carved lower highs since, and price now sits at the 38.2% of the Asian fib near 1.1217, with the 1.1213 swing low just below. EUR is soft on French fiscal stress but holding above 1.1200 ahead of London.
Support: 1.12134, 1.1202, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12218, 1.12263
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1213 swing low, near EMA50, exposes the 1.1202 Asian low and the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.1226 Asian high
ECB's Elderson (06:00 UTC) and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could set London-session direction
06:01 UTC
Asia bounce fading into London open · RSI 39 · price 1.12161
Monday gap-up, near gap fill at 1.1202, then rally to 1.1226; now lower highs.
EURUSD gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close as USD softened on fading Iran-strike risk. The gap nearly filled at the 1.1202 asian low, then price rallied to the 1.1226 asian high. Late Asia has slipped back below the ema20 toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1217, with RSI(14) near 39 and the swing low at 1.1213 next below.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 swing low exposes the 1.1202 asian low and gap fill
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1220 puts the 1.1226 asian high back in play
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could break the Asian range either way
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC lands at the London open
Weekend gap-up, dip to 1.1202 held, push to 1.1226 then tight 1.1218–1.1225 compression.
The Sunday open gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. The gap nearly filled at the 1.1202 session low before the Asia session pushed to a 1.1226 session high, helped by softer USD on lower yields. Price has since compressed in a 1.1218–1.1225 band at the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR down to about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1218 micro low exposes the 1.1213 swing low, near the 50% fib at 1.1214
Loss of the 1.1202 session low and the 1.1200 pivot would fill the weekend gap and unwind the Asia bounce
M15 close above the 1.1226 session high breaks the compression and opens the 1.1250 round number
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Asia bounce stalled, sideways into London · RSI 49 · price 1.12201
Tight coil in the upper Asian range after near gap fill.
Monday opened about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. Early Asia faded to the 1.1202 Asian low, nearly filling the gap, and demand stepped in there twice before a push to the 1.1226 Asian high as USD softened on lower yields. Since 02:30 UTC price has compressed between the 1.1219 micro low and 1.1226 with ATR near 3 pips and RSI flat around 49, with London not yet open.
Support: 1.12185, 1.1202, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12263
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1219 micro low brings the 1.1202 Asian low and the 1.1200 Friday close into play, which would complete the gap fill
A break above the 1.1226 Asian high takes price out of the Asian range and extends the bounce
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could set London's direction out of this coil
Higher highs and higher lows off 1.1202 Asian low, now a tight consolidation under the session high.
Monday's Asia session opened with a ~19-pip gap above Friday's 1.1200 close and almost filled it at the 1.1202 Asian low. Price then built a higher low at 1.1213 and printed a 1.1226 session high as USD softened on lower yields. It is now compressing in a 1.1219–1.1222 band, with the range floor at 1.12185. EMA20 sits just under price, RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12185, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1226 session high extends the Asian range into the London open
Loss of the 1.1213 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.1202 Asian low and the 1.1200 pivot
Break of the 1.12185 range floor shifts the read to a deeper fib pullback toward the 50% retracement near 1.1214
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia lows, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 1.12207
Higher lows off 1.1202 since the Monday open, now a tight 1.1219–1.1226 range below the session high.
Monday opened with a ~19-pip gap above Friday's 1.1200 close. Early Asia dipped to the 1.1202 asian low without filling it, then printed higher lows to a 1.1226 session high as USD eased on lower yields and cooling Iran risk. Late in the Asia session price is compressing between the 1.1219 range low and the session high, holding above the broken Friday high at 1.1216, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.12185, 1.1216, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1219 range low exposes the Friday high at 1.1216, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally
Break of the 1.1226 session high opens the 1.1230 round number
Loss of the 1.1202 asian low completes the gap fill and negates the Asia advance
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) around London open could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday bounce, stalling in late Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.12189
Gap-up open, near-fill to 1.1202, higher lows to 1.1226, now consolidating.
Monday opened about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. Asia sold back to the 1.1202 asian low, close to filling the gap, then printed a higher-low leg to the 1.1226 asian high as USD eased on softer yields. Late in the Asian range, price is drifting just under the ema20 near 1.1219, with RSI(14) at about 47 and ATR at about 3 pips. Friday's high at 1.1216 is the first support below.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1230
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.1216 fri high keeps the Asian higher-low structure intact. A loss of it exposes the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asian leg fib near 1.1217–1.1214.
A break below the 1.1202 asian low completes the weekend gap fill and erases the Asian bounce.
An M15 close above the 1.1226 asian high reopens the 1.1230 round number.
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) into London open could materially shift this read.
04:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 56 · price 1.12204
Monday Asia higher-low chain from 1.1202, now a tight consolidation below the 1.1226 Asian high.
Monday Asia gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close and dipped to an Asian low of 1.1202, just short of filling the gap. It then printed higher lows to a 1.1226 Asian high as USD eased on lower yields. Late in the Asia session price is compressing just above the 1.1219 swing low and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR at a thin 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.12194, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1230
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1219 swing low exposes the 1.1213 prior pivot, near the 50% fib of the Asian rally
A break below the 1.1202 Asian low would complete the weekend gap fill and unwind the Asian bounce
Acceptance above the 1.1226 Asian high into London open brings the 1.1230 round number into play
ECB's Elderson (06:00 UTC) and German IFO (09:00 UTC, f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
Weekend gap up, then higher highs and higher lows through Asia; now compressing under the session high.
EURUSD gapped about 19 pips higher at the weekly open after Friday's PMI-led drop to 1.1184. The pair dipped to a 1.1202 asian low near Friday's close, then the Asia rally built a higher low at 1.12134 and a 1.12263 session high. Price is now compressing between 1.1219 and 1.1226, holding just above the 1.12194 swing low, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR at about 3.6 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 1.12194, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1230
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.12263 session high extends the Asia HH/HL chain toward the 1.1230 round number
A break of the 1.12194 swing low shifts focus to the 1.12134 higher low and the rising trendline (50–61.8% of the Asia rally fib)
Failure to hold the 1.1202 asian low would close the weekend gap and erase the Asia rally
ECB's Elderson (06:00 UTC) and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during London could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, stalling under the Asian high.
Monday opened with a ~19-pip gap above Friday's 1.1200 close. Asia filled most of it, bottoming at the 1.1202 Asian low, before a higher-high/higher-low chain lifted price to a 1.1226 Asian high. Late in the Asia session price is compressing just under that high, holding the rising trendline from the 1.1213 higher low, with RSI(14) near 58 and EUR still heavy after Friday's PMI misses.
Support: 1.12194, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 Asian high extends the HH chain toward the 1.1230 round number
Loss of the 1.1219 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1213 higher low in play, near the 50% fib
A return to the 1.1202 Asian low would complete the gap fill and retest the 1.1200 handle
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during the London session could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.12222
Higher highs and higher lows off the 1.1202 Asian low.
Monday's Asia session gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.12005 close. Price then dipped to the 1.1202 asian low, just short of a gap fill, before building a higher-high/higher-low chain to the 1.12263 asian high. Price is sitting above the 1.12194 swing low with RSI(14) near 59, not stretched, consistent with the digest's short-covering bounce after Friday's PMI-driven slide.
Support: 1.12194, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12194 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the Asian trendline; the 1.12134 prior hl sits near the 50% fib of the Asian leg
Acceptance above the 1.12263 asian high opens the 1.1230 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1202 asian low completes the weekend gap fill and puts Friday's range back in play
ECB's Elderson (06:00 UTC) and German IFO (09:00 UTC, f/c 89.8) could reset the Asian range once London is in
03:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 57 · price 1.12213
Asian HH/HL chain off near gap-fill low, pulling back to higher low.
Monday's weekend gap up to 1.1220 was almost fully faded to a 1.1202 session low early in Asia. Price then built a HH/HL chain to a 1.1226 session high and was rejected, now sitting near 1.1221 at the 23.6% of the Asia leg fib. RSI(14) is 57 and ATR is about 4 pips, a quiet Asian range consistent with the digest's short-covering bounce in EUR.
Support: 1.12194, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1219 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 38.2% Asia leg fib near 1.1217 and the 1.1213 swing low
M15 close above the 1.1226 session high extends the Asian range, with the 1.1230 round number next overhead
Loss of the 1.1202 session low completes the weekend gap fill and returns price to Friday's range
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during London could break the Asian range
03:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late Asia stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.1221
Asia HH/HL chain off 1.1202 low, gapped above Friday range.
Monday opened with a ~19-pip weekend gap above Friday's 1.1200 close, which partly filled to the 1.1202 asian low before a higher-high/higher-low Asia leg reached the 1.1226 asian high. That bounce follows Friday's PMI-driven slide to 1.1184. Late in the Asia session, price is sitting on the rising line just above the 1.1216 friday high, with RSI(14) at ~60.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1250
What it said to watch
A break of the rising line and the 1.1213 asian hl ends the Asia HH/HL chain, which exposes the 1.1202 asian low and 1.1200 psych
A close above the 1.1226 asian high extends the sequence toward the 1.1250 round number
The Asia leg fib between 38.2% and 61.8% spans 1.1217–1.1211, overlapping the friday high
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during London could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, Asia higher-low chain · RSI 72 · price 1.12257
Weekend gap up held; HH/HL sequence above Friday high.
Monday Asia opened about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. The early fade stalled at the 1.1202 asian low, short of a full gap fill, and the Asian rally has since built a higher-low chain through the 1.1216 friday high to a 1.1226 session high. The bounce fits the soft-USD, lower-yields backdrop; RSI(14) near 72 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1216, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1220 pullback low ends the higher-low chain
M15 close back below the 1.1216 friday high undercuts the breakout and puts the 1.1202 asian low back in play
Loss of 1.1202 leaves the weekend gap toward Friday's 1.1200 close open
Acceptance above the 1.1226 session high exposes the 1.1250 round number
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) land into London and could shift this read
Monday gap-up with HH/HL chain off the 1.1202 Asian low, now above Friday's high.
Monday's Asia session gapped about 20 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. Price dipped to a 1.1202 Asian low, nearly filling the gap, then built higher lows through the 1.1213 swing low and Friday's 1.1216 prior high to a 1.1224 session high. RSI(14) is near 71 and bar ranges are compressing as the move tracks a soft USD on lower Treasury yields. The 38.2% and 50% retracements of the Asian leg sit on the prior high and the swing low.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1216 prior high returns price to Friday's range and negates the breakout
Failure to hold the 1.1213 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain; below the 1.1202 Asian low the gap is filled
Acceptance above the 1.1224 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap of about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. The gap was nearly filled at the 1.1202 session low, then a higher-low chain (Asia leg) lifted price back to the 1.1224 session high, extending the rebound from Friday's PMI-miss drop. Price is sitting on the rising trendline with RSI(14) near 65, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.12134, 1.1202, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12243, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the rising trendline and the 1.1213 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain.
Acceptance above the 1.1224 session high opens the 1.1250 round number.
Loss of the 1.1202 session low fills the weekend gap and exposes the 1.1184 Friday low.
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read.
02:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 66 · price 1.12221
Higher highs and higher lows in Asia, holding above Friday's high.
Monday opened with a ~19-pip gap above Friday's 1.1200 close. Price dipped to 1.1202, the Asian low, just short of filling the gap, then climbed in higher lows along rising support. That move cleared the 1.1216 prior high, Friday's post-PMI-miss session top, and set an Asian high at 1.1223 as USD stays soft on lower yields. RSI(14) at ~66 is firm but not stretched. The 1.1213 swing low, which sits near the 50% retrace of the Asian leg, is the last higher low.
Support: 1.1216, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1216 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break.
Loss of the 1.1213 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and rising support.
Acceptance above the 1.1223 Asian high into London open exposes the 1.1250 round number.
A drop through the 1.1202 Asian low would complete the gap fill and put 1.1200 back in play.
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could reset the London range.
02:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows from Asian low · RSI 64 · price 1.12215
Post-gap higher-low chain retesting session high.
Monday's Asia session opened with a 19-pip gap above Friday's 1.1200 close. Price nearly filled it at the 1.1202 Asian low, then printed higher lows back to retest the 1.12225 session high, holding above Friday's prior high at 1.1216. The bounce tracks a soft USD on lower yields after Friday's PMI-driven slide. RSI(14) near 64 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1216, 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12225, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12225 session high extends the higher-low chain toward the 1.1250 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1213 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.1202 Asian low / 1.1200
Slipping back below Friday's prior high at 1.1216 would mark rejection at the session high
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during London could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the open · RSI 63 · price 1.12192
Post-gap Asian range 1.1202–1.1223, HL chain testing session high.
The Asia session opened with a gap of about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close, which came after the PMI-driven slide. The session low at 1.1202 stopped just short of filling the gap. Price has since made a higher low at the 1.1213 swing low and is retesting the 1.1223 session high, with RSI(14) firm near 63 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.12134, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.12225
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1223 session high breaks the top of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1213 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1202 session low and the gap fill toward 1.1200
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) and Elderson at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia dip · RSI 59 · price 1.12213
Weekend gap mostly filled, HH/HL chain pressing open high.
Asia session opened with a ~19-pip gap above the 1.1200 fri close and filled most of it into the 1.1202 asia low. Price then formed a higher low at 1.1213 and is back testing the 1.1222 open high, with RSI(14) near 59 and an ATR of about 5.6 pips. Friday's PMI-driven low at 1.1184 sits well below the current range.
Support: 1.12134, 1.1202, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 open high extends the higher-low chain beyond the gap open
Break below the 1.1213 higher low undercuts the support trendline from the asia low
Loss of the 1.1202 asia low completes the gap fill to the 1.1200 fri close
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read, with Elderson speaking at 06:00 UTC
01:16 UTC
Short-term recovery after weekend gap · RSI 59 · price 1.12171
Gap-fill low at 1.1202, higher low at 1.1213.
Early Asia session opened with a ~19-pip weekend gap above Friday's 1.1200 close. The gap was nearly filled into the 1.1202 Asian low, and the drop was rejected there, putting price back toward the 1.1220 recent high. The pullback held a higher low at 1.1213, the 38.2% of that leg, while the friday high at 1.1223 caps for now on thin pre-IFO flow.
Support: 1.12134, 1.1202, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12201, 1.1223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1223 friday high clears the Asian range top
Break below the 1.1213 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 1.1202 Asian low and 1.1200 round number
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1202–1.1222, lower high at 1.1220 after near gap fill.
Monday Asia opened with a ~19-pip gap above the Friday close as weekend Iran headlines trimmed the USD safe-haven premium. The gap nearly filled at the 1.1202 Asian low before demand returned. The rebound printed a lower high at 1.1220 under the 1.1222 session high, and price is now sitting on the 38.2% fib and micro low near 1.1213, RSI(14) ~61.
Support: 1.12134, 1.1202, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12201, 1.12224
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1213 micro low exposes the 50–61.8% fib at 1.1211–1.1209
Break of the 1.1202 Asian low fills the gap to the 1.1200 Friday close and returns price to Friday's range
M15 close above the 1.1222 session high clears the lower high and breaks the Asian range
German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) after soft PMIs could shift this read at London open
00:46 UTC
Gap-up open, intraday recovery stalling under open high · RSI 52 · price 1.1218
Asian range 1.1202–1.1222, higher low at 1.1213.
Asia opened about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close after weekend Iran de-escalation headlines. The early dip stalled at the 1.1202 session low, a pip short of filling the gap, and price has since rebuilt to 1.1218 off a higher low at 1.1213. The open high at 1.1222 and the friday high at 1.1225 sit directly overhead; RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1202, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 open high and 1.1225 friday high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 1.1213 higher low and the rising support line returns price to the 1.1202 session low
A break below 1.1202 fills the gap to the 1.1200 friday close and puts Friday's post-PMI range back in play
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during the London session could reshape the Asian range read
00:31 UTC
Short-term recovery, testing open high · RSI 64 · price 1.12176
Weekly gap up held above Friday close; higher low at 1.1202 inside Asia session.
The weekly open gapped about 20 pips above the 1.1200 Friday close despite Friday's PMI-miss selling. Early Asia retraced to a session low at 1.1202 and left the gap unfilled, and the rebound has carried price back to the 1.1222 open high. RSI(14) is near 64 and price sits above both EMAs, with Friday's high at 1.1226 just overhead.
Support: 1.1202, 1.12005, 1.11891
Resistance: 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 open high exposes the 1.1226 fri high
Loss of the 1.1202 session low fills the gap to the 1.1200 fri close, with the fri ny low at 1.1189 below
A stall at the 0.618 rebound fib (~1.2125 zone of the 1.1202–1.1220 leg) would mark the bounce as corrective
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during London hours could shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday rebound after weekend gap, testing session high · RSI 66 · price 1.1217
Sunday gap up, near-complete gap fill at 1.1202, higher low and push back toward 1.1222.
Early Asia session opened ~19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close, which came after PMI misses drove a friday low at 1.1184. The opening dip stalled at a 1.1202 session low just shy of a full gap fill, and price has retraced most of the sunday drop to 1.1217 with RSI(14) near 66, just under the 1.1222 session high and the 1.1226 friday high.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 session high exposes the 1.1226 friday high
Loss of the 1.1202 session low completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1184 friday low back in focus
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could reset the Asian range