Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range; flat drift under 1.1131.
The Asian range broke lower at the London open. A chain of lower highs from the 1.1154 bounce high then carried EURUSD to a 1.1121 session low late in NY, as French fiscal stress and a pre-Fed USD bid weighed. Post-NY trade is thin and flat beneath the 1.1131 late high, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) about 2 pips.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11308, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1121 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
M15 close above the 1.1131 late high and the lower highs trendline challenges the downtrend read
The 1.1138 lower high sits near the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off; rejection there keeps the sequence intact
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1154; thin consolidation above the 1.1121 session low.
London broke below the 1.1160 Asian range low. NY extended the lower-high chain down to a 1.1121 session low as French spread stress and a firm pre-Fed USD weighed on EUR. Early Asia session trade is a thin 9-pip consolidation capped by the 1.1131 rebound high, near the 23.6% fib of the 1.1154 NY high to session low leg.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11308, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1138 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 1.1121 session low exposes the 1.1113 support band
German GfK at 07:00 UTC into London open; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.11295
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; thin bounce off session low.
London broke the Asian low at the open. NY then stepped down through a series of lower highs, from the 1.1154 NY open high to the 1.1138 swing high, and set the session low at 1.1121 late in the day as French spread stress and a firm pre-Fed USD weighed on EUR. Early Asia is holding a thin 8-pip bounce just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41 and no extreme in play.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1138 swing high (50% retrace) breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1121 session low exposes the 1.1113 key support band
Recovery through the 1.1154 NY open high would negate the intraday downtrend read
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, small post-rollover bounce · RSI 39 · price 1.11306
Lower highs and lower lows since the Durables high; price retesting the broken low.
EUR/USD lost the Asian range in early London. The fade from the 1.1154 durables high after the US Durable Goods beat then printed a chain of lower highs down to a 1.1121 NY low as USD firmed into the Fed. The thin post-rollover bounce is now retesting the 1.1132 broken low, where EMA20 and the descending trendline converge.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11323, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1138 lower high, which lines up with the 50% fib of the durables-high-to-NY-low leg, breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 1.1132 broken low keeps the 1.1121 NY low in play. A break below exposes the digest's 1.1113 key support
Thin Asia session until German GfK at 07:00 UTC. The FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 1.1154 durables hi would neutralise the intraday downtrend
LH/LL chain from 1.1154; drift below the 1.1121 session low has stalled in thin post-rollover trade.
EURUSD extended its five-day slide on pre-Fed USD demand and French fiscal stress. After a double top at the 1.1154 NY high, price broke the 1.1135 London low and the 1.1133 broken low, then printed a session low at 1.1121 late in NY hours. Price is now holding just under the descending trendline in quiet early-Asia trade, with RSI(14) at 35.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1133, 1.1138, 1.1154
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1133 broken low and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% retrace of the NY high–session low drop sits at the same area
Above that, the 1.1138 lower high is the next swing that would need to give way
Failure to hold the 1.1121 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
German GfK at 07:00 UTC ahead of London open, and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; NY extended the LH/LL chain.
London broke below the 1.1162–1.1177 Asian range, and NY capped every bounce under the 1.1154 lower high, with a late slide to a 1.1121 session low as USD firmed at two-week highs into the FOMC. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 31, drifting in thin rollover trade below the 1.1132 prior low and the 1.1138 swing high.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11323, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1132 prior low and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 38.2% of the NY leg fib sits at 1.1134
A move through the 1.1138 swing high and back toward the 1.1154 lower high shifts the read to range
Failure to hold the 1.1121 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
German GfK at 07:00 UTC, then the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending into the close · RSI 31 · price 1.11263
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; Asian range broken lower.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1162. NY capped at the 1.1154 NY high and lower highs followed along the NY trendline, cutting through the London low at 1.1135 to a 1.1121 day low as the pre-FOMC USD bid and French spread stress weighed on EUR. RSI(14) sits near 31 and ATR is about 3 pips as the Asia session opens thin.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11352, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1135 london low breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.1121 day low exposes the 1.1113 key support band
A break of the NY trendline would end the lower-high sequence
German GfK Wed 07:00 UTC and the FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low into the close · RSI 29 · price 1.11251
Lower highs since 1.1154; late break of 1.1132 prior low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1160 and pushed to 1.1135. NY then printed a chain of lower highs under a falling trendline from the 1.1154 london high, and late-session selling took out the 1.1132 prior low to a 1.1121 session low, with RSI(14) near 29. The backdrop is pre-FOMC USD firmness and French spread stress.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1138, 1.1154
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1132 prior low would turn the late break into a false break
Close above the falling trendline and 1.1138 late high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
Low-liquidity Asia hours ahead; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the main event risk for this structure
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY close · RSI 25 · price 1.11239
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY high, late break below the 1.1132 swing low.
The Asian range (1.1160–1.1177) gave way at the London open. Price has printed lower highs since the 1.1154 NY high, and the late-NY break of the 1.1133–1.1138 range has made a fresh day low at 1.1124 as the pre-FOMC USD bid and French spread stress weigh on EUR. RSI(14) near 25 is stretched, with the 1.1113 key support from the macro digest about 11 pips below.
Support: 1.11239, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11323, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1132 broken low would mark the day-low break as a false break
Close above the 1.1138 swing high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Sustained trade below 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
Asia session liquidity is thin. FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the main risk that could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke below the Asian range.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1162 and the NY high at 1.1154 capped the bounce. Late NY has slipped under the 1.1138 swing high to a fresh session low at 1.1129, with French spread stress and pre-Fed USD demand behind the slide. The 1.1113 key support and 1.1100 round number sit below, ATR is compressed near 4 pips and RSI(14) is low but not stretched.
Support: 1.1129, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1138, 1.1154, 1.1162
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1138 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
German GfK at 07:00 UTC, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since the NY high, price at the day low late in NY hours.
The 1.1162–1.1177 Asian range broke lower at London open, and the slide reached 1.1135. The NY bounce to the 1.1154 NY high after firm US durables faded into a sequence of lower highs, with French spread stress and pre-Fed USD demand keeping EUR heavy. Price is printing a fresh day low at 1.1131 after NY close, RSI(14) near 34, with the 1.1113 key support and 1.1100 round number below.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11382, 1.11459, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1138 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and pauses the downtrend read
Recovery through the 1.1146 swing high would neutralise the post-NY sell-off structure
Failure to hold 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.1162 and pushed to 1.1135. NY rallies were capped at the 1.1154 ny high, followed by a run of lower highs and a late drop to the 1.1132 session low as French spread stress and pre-FOMC USD demand weighed. Since then price has held a 5-pip range just above that low, with the 1.1138 range top capping, RSI(14) near 38 and ATR around 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1130
Resistance: 1.11382, 1.11406, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1132 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1130 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1138 range top and the fib 38.2 at 1.1141 would mark the first higher high since the NY high
Thin Asia session flow may keep the range tight until Wednesday's FOMC (18:00 UTC)
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 43 · price 1.11378
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base above session low.
Price broke the Asian range low near 1.1162 at London open and slid to the london low at 1.11352. NY then capped rallies at the london high of 1.11541 and a lower high at 1.11459, and printed a fresh session low at 1.11323 after Lagarde's 17:00 UTC remarks, with French spread stress and pre-FOMC USD demand behind the slide. Late NY is now compressing in a narrow 1.1133–1.1138 band just under EMA20, RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.11352, 1.11323
Resistance: 1.11413, 1.11459, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close above the minor high at 1.11413 (38.2% fib) breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the session low at 1.11323 extends lower lows toward the 1.1113 support band
Rejection at the lower high at 1.11459 (61.8% fib) keeps the downtrend structure intact
Pre-FOMC positioning ahead of Wed 18:00 UTC remains the dominant driver into the next session
Asian range broken lower; lower highs from 1.1154 into a 1.1132 session low, now basing in late NY.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1160 and ran to 1.1135, extending EUR's five-day slide on French fiscal stress. NY's rebound stalled twice at the 1.1154 NY high around the US data, then lower highs carried price to a 1.1132 session low after Lagarde's 17:00 UTC remarks. Late NY is basing just above that low, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11404, 1.11541, 1.11604
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1140 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
A recovery capped below the 50% retrace of the NY drop (~1.1143) keeps the lower-high chain intact
Failure to hold the 1.1132 session low exposes 1.1113 key support
Only a return above the 1.1154 NY high and the 1.1160 Asian low would neutralise today's range break
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 38 · price 1.11366
Lower highs since the 1.1154 midday high; marginal lower low at 1.1132, now compressing.
London open broke below the 1.1160 Asian low. Every bounce since the 1.1154 midday high has capped lower, and French spread stress plus a firm USD pushed price to a fresh 1.1132 session low around Lagarde's remarks. Late-NY trade is compressing just above that low with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11443, 1.11541, 1.11604
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1144 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1132 session low exposes the 1.1113 key support
Recovery through the 1.1154 midday high puts the 1.1160 Asian low back in view
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence from the London high; day low just printed, tight consolidation beneath the old London low.
Lower highs held all through NY. The 17:45 UTC leg broke the London low at 1.1135 and printed a day low of 1.1132, with French spread stress and a firm USD behind the slide. After London close, price is compressing in a 3-pip band just under the old London low, with RSI(14) near 33, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11352, 1.11413
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 1.1135 and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold the day low at 1.1132 exposes key support at 1.1113, then the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1141 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major catalyst; thin late-NY and Asia liquidity until then
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 1.11346
EUR/USD lost the Asian low at 1.1160 at the London open and has printed lower highs since the 1.1154 swing high. Wider French spreads and firm US data drove a fresh session low at 1.1132 late in the NY session. Price is now compressing just above that low with RSI(14) at 36 and the descending trendline capping near the 1.1141 lower high.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11406, 1.11541, 1.11604
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1141 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1132 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, with the 1.1100 round number below
A move back through the 1.1154 swing high and the 1.1160 asian low would invalidate the downtrend read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for this structure
Lower-high chain from NY high 1.1154; London low at 1.1135 broken late session.
London broke below the Asian range low at 1.1160 to a 1.1135 London low. NY then built a lower-high chain from the 1.1154 NY high, and a late dip to a 1.1132 session low edged under the London low on French spread widening and firm US data. RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not stretched; price is holding just below the London low.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11352, 1.11413, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1141 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.1132 session low exposes the 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Failure to reclaim the 1.1135 London low keeps the break in place into the Asia session
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major risk to this read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 1.11347
Lower-high/lower-low chain below descending trendline; fresh session low late NY.
EURUSD broke below the 1.1160–1.1177 Asian range at London open and slid to the 1.1135 London low. The NY session stalled at the 1.1154 rebound high, then traced a run of lower highs under the descending trendline and printed a fresh 1.1132 session low late in NY. French fiscal stress and a firmer USD on mixed-to-strong US data frame the slide; RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1132, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1135, 1.1144, 1.1154
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.1132 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
An M15 close back above the 1.1144 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Holding under the 1.1135 London low keeps the morning floor as resistance
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts that could reset this structure
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh day low late NY · RSI 33 · price 1.11332
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC; 1.1135 floor broken after London close.
EUR/USD broke below the 1.1160–1.1177 Asian range at the London open. It has stepped lower all day, capped by a chain of lower highs off the 1.1154 session high as USD stayed bid on the durables beat ahead of the FOMC. After Lagarde's 17:00 UTC speech the 1.1135 broken low (09:30 and 16:00 lows) gave way to a 1.1132 day low, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11352, 1.11404, 1.11541
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1135 broken low would turn the late-NY drop into a false break
A close above the 1.1140 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Acceptance below the 1.1132 day low opens 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC are the next event risks for this structure
Lower highs pressing the 1.1135 session low after London broke the Asian range.
London open broke below the 1.1160 Asian low and pushed price to a 1.1135 session low, as French fiscal stress and a firm dollar after the Durable Goods beat weighed on EUR. The NY bounce stalled at 1.1154. A run of lower highs since then has drifted price back to 1.1136–1.1140, with RSI(14) near 41 and little reaction so far to Lagarde's remarks.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11459, 1.11541, 1.11604
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1135 session low extends the London leg toward 1.1113 key support
Close above the 1.1146 lower high breaks the lower-highs line, exposing the 1.1154 NY high and then the 1.1160 Asian low
Lagarde's tone on December hike odds could still jolt EUR after the NY session
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major volatility event for this read
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 37 · price 1.11373
Lower-high sequence pressing the session low.
Price broke below the Asian low at 1.1162 around London open and set the session low at 1.1135 as the dollar firmed on strong US durables and confidence data. Late in the NY session, highs have stepped lower from the 1.1153 NY high under a descending trendline, and price is back testing the session low after Lagarde's remarks.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11443, 1.11533, 1.11624
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1135 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1113 key support
Close above 1.1144 lower high breaks the trendline and the NY lower-high sequence
Recovery above the 1.1153 NY high reopens the 1.1162 asian low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; NY bounce capped, lower highs compressing onto 1.1135.
EURUSD broke below the Asian low at 1.1160 into London open and set the session low at 1.1135. The NY high at 1.1154 was a rejection inside the 38.2–50% fib of the London drop as firm US durables and CB confidence lifted USD. Lower highs since 14:15 UTC are pressing price back onto the session low, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11459, 1.11541, 1.11604
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1135 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1113 key support
M15 close above the 1.1146 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.1154 NY high and 1.1160 Asian low sit above
Lagarde speaking from 17:00 UTC; a hawkish lean on a December hike could spark short-covering off the session low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled volatility event for this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 41 · price 1.11396
Lower-high sequence from 1.1154 pressing the 1.1135 session low.
London broke the asian low at 1.1162 and drove to a 1.1135 session low. Firm US durables and confidence kept USD bid, and NY has stacked lower highs from the 1.1154 london high. Price is now retesting the session low with RSI(14) near 41, not oversold.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11446, 1.11541, 1.11624
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking at 17:00 UTC; a hawkish tone could squeeze price through the 1.1145 lower high and the trendline
M15 close below the 1.1135 session low confirms a lower-low, opening 1.1113 key support
Reclaim of the 1.1154 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Lower highs in NY pressing on the 1.1136 London low.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.1160 and slid to a 1.1135 session low as USD firmed on strong US data and French spread stress. NY has carved lower highs from the 1.1154 rebound high down to 1.1144, and the retest of the session low at 1.1136 is holding so far. RSI(14) is in the mid-40s with ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 1.1136, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1146, 1.1154, 1.1160
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC; her tone on a December hike could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1136 session low confirms a lower-low, with 1.1113 key support next
A close above the NY lower highs at 1.1146 reopens the 1.1154 rebound high, then the 1.1160 Asian low
London broke below the 1.1160–1.1177 Asian range and ran to a 1.1135 session low. NY has held a 1.1136–1.1154 band, with the bounce stalling near the 38.2% of the Asian-high fib and a chain of lower highs pressing toward the lows as firm US durables and confidence data kept the dollar bid. RSI(14) sits mid-40s and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1136, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1146, 1.1154, 1.1160
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1136 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1113 key support
Break of the lower highs line near 1.1146 and a close above the 1.1154 london high neutralises the descending structure; the 1.1160 asian low is the next cap
Lagarde speech at 17:00 UTC (20:00 broker time) could materially shift this read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk for range expansion
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 1.11378
London break below Asian range, NY 1.1135–1.1154 range with lower highs pressing the session low.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1160 and slid to a 1.1135 session low, with soft EZ data and a USD firmed by upside US prints driving the move. NY has since capped at 1.1154 (ny high) and printed a lower high at 1.1146, and price is now back on the session low with RSI(14) near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11459, 1.11541, 1.11604
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1135 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
Recovery above the 1.1146 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could jolt the pair; hawkish December-hike talk would test the 1.1154 ny high
Reclaiming the 1.1160 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.11439
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.1140 floor.
London broke below the 1.1162 Asian low and ran to a 1.1135 session low on French fiscal stress and a firm USD. The rebound stalled at the 1.1154 rebound high, near the 38.2% fib, and NY has printed lower highs into the 1.1140 floor despite the Durable Goods beat.
Support: 1.1140, 1.11352
Resistance: 1.11459, 1.11541, 1.11624
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1140 floor exposes the 1.1135 session low
Break of the lower highs line near 1.1146 and a reclaim of the 1.1154 rebound high ease the downside read
Asian low at 1.1162 is the level that would negate the London breakdown
Lagarde speech at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 44 · price 1.11451
Asian range broken lower, session low 1.1135, NY range 1.1140–1.1154.
EUR/USD broke below the Asian low near 1.1162 at London open and slid to a 1.1135 session low, its fifth straight down day, on French fiscal stress and a firm USD after upbeat US data. NY has since compressed into a 1.1140–1.1154 range, with the rebound stalling between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Asian-high-to-session-low drop and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1140, 1.11352
Resistance: 1.11541, 1.11624
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1154 range top opens a retest of the 1.1162 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.1140 range floor exposes the 1.1135 session low
Lagarde speech at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major volatility risk
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 40 · price 1.11437
Post-London-drop range 1.1140–1.1154, lower highs, pressing floor.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1160 and ran to a London low of 1.1135 as French yields rose and USD firmed above DXY 102. NY has since held a 1.1140–1.1154 range. Lower highs are capping the range top near the 38.2% fib of the London drop, and price is back on the range floor with RSI(14) near 40 and EMA20/50 overhead.
Support: 1.1140, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1160
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1140 range floor exposes the 1.1135 London low
Close above the 1.1154 range top and the lower highs line reopens the 1.1160 Asian low
Lagarde speech at 17:00 UTC, about 90 min out, could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range lower. NY is holding a 1.1142–1.1154 range with flat-to-lower highs..
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1160 and ran to a 1.1135 session low, retracing just under half of the slide from the Asia high. Since then price has been boxed in a 1.1142–1.1154 range through NY, capped at the range top while firm US data and DXY above 102.00 keep the range floor under repeated tests late in the session.
Support: 1.1142, 1.11352
Resistance: 1.11541, 1.11604
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1142 range floor puts the 1.1135 session low in play
Close above the 1.1154 range top breaks the capping sequence and brings the 1.1160 asian low back into view
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, paused in consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.11484
Tight 1.1142–1.1154 range above the London day low.
London open broke below the Asian low at 1.1162 and extended to a 1.1135 day low on firm USD and French yield pressure. Since then, a 1.1142 range floor has held four times through the NY session, while supply has capped the range top near 1.1154, close to the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London drop.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1162
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1142 range floor puts the 1.1135 day low back in play
M15 close above the 1.1154 range top and fib 38.2% opens a retest of the 1.1162 Asian low
Lagarde speech at 17:00 UTC could break the NY range either way
FOMC on Wed is the larger USD driver beyond this session
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 45 · price 1.11456
Post-London-selloff range 1.1142–1.1154 with rising lows.
The London open broke the asian low at 1.1160 and extended to a london low of 1.1135, with a firm USD into FOMC and French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. Through the London-NY transition, price has held a 1.1142–1.1154 consolidation on rising lows. The range top sits at the 38.2% retracement of the asian high–london low fib, and the 14:00 UTC pop was rejected there.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1160
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1142 range low and loss of the 1.1135 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 area
M15 close above the 1.1154 range top opens a retest of the 1.1160 asian low, now acting as resistance
Lagarde speech at 17:00 UTC could break the consolidation
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major volatility event for this pair
14:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing since London low · RSI 55 · price 1.11509
Higher lows inside 1.1142–1.1154 range after London selloff.
London broke the asian low at 1.1160 and slid to a 1.1135 london low on the broad USD bid. Since then price has printed higher lows into the NY session but has been rejected twice at the 1.1154 range top, near the 50% retrace of the London drop. Price sits above EMA20 but just under EMA50, and RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1160
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1154 range top puts the 1.1160 asian low and the 61.8% retrace of the London drop in play
Failure at the 1.1142 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 1.1135 london low
Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC; comments on ECB December hike timing could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1135 inside a 1.1142–1.1154 range.
London extended the five-day EUR slide to a 1.1135 session low. Demand then held the 1.1142 range floor twice, building higher lows on the rising support line, while the 1.1154 range top capped every bounce, including the one after firm US durable goods. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price is back above EMA20 but still under EMA50 and the 1.1160 breakdown pt from London open.
Support: 1.1142, 1.11352
Resistance: 1.11541, 1.1160
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1154 range top opens a retest of the 1.1160 breakdown pt
Break of the 1.1142 range floor and rising support puts the 1.1135 session low back in play
Lagarde speech at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs; tight 1.1142–1.1154 range below broken Asian low.
London open broke the Asian low near 1.1160 and extended to a 1.1135 London low as the USD bid into FOMC held. The rebound stalled at the 1.1154 range top, near the 50% retracement of the Asia-London drop. Sellers capped that level after the firm US durables print, and price is now pressing the 1.1142 range floor below EMA20.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1160
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1142 range floor exposes the 1.1135 London low
Reclaim of the 1.1154 range top shifts focus to the broken 1.1160 Asian low
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, then Lagarde at 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; 1.1135–1.1154 corrective range beneath it.
London open broke below the 1.1162–1.1177 Asian range and extended to a 1.1135 session low on the broad USD bid that has driven EUR's five-day slide. The NY-hours rebound stalled at the 1.1154 rebound high, the 61.8% of the London leg. Price is back testing the 1.1142 higher low below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1162
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1142 higher low exposes the 1.1135 session low; a break there opens the 1.1100 ING support
M15 close above the 1.1154 rebound high shifts focus back to the 1.1162 Asian low
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, then Lagarde at 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; 1.1135–1.1154 range since 09:30 UTC, now retesting the higher low.
The London open broke the Asian low at 1.1160 on a firm USD and French bond stress, extending to a 1.1135 session low. The rebound stalled at 1.1154 near the 38.2% retrace of the overnight drop after the mixed US durables print. In the London-NY transition, price is back on the 1.1142 higher low, RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1160
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1142 higher low exposes the 1.1135 session low; a break there leaves 1.1100 psych as the next marked level
M15 close back above the 1.1154 bounce high puts the 1.1160 asian low back in play and neutralises the rejection
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, corrective bounce in play · RSI 51 · price 1.1151
London broke Asian range lower; HH/HL rebound off session low.
London broke the 1.1160 Asian low and ran to a 1.1135 session low on a firm USD and French bond stress. Price has since printed a higher low at 1.1142 and is sitting at the 38.2% retracement of the asian high to session low drop near 1.1151. The rebound high at 1.1154 capped price after a muted reaction to mixed US durables.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1160, 1.1176
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1160 asian low reopens the Asian range toward the 1.1176 asian high
Break of the 1.1142 higher low and rising trendline puts the 1.1135 session low back in play
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian low broken at London open; higher low at 1.1142 off the 1.1135 London low, retesting breakdown shelf.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1163 at the open and extended to the 1.1135 London low on French bond stress and pre-FOMC dollar demand. Price has since printed a higher low at 1.1142 and is retesting the 1.1150–1.1155 breakdown shelf into the London-NY transition, capped so far at the 1.1154 bounce high.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1163
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1154 bounce high puts the 1.1163 Asian low back in play and tests the 61.8% of the London drop fib
Break of the 1.1142 higher low and the higher low line exposes the 1.1135 London low
US Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off London low, retesting broken 1.1150 area.
London open broke the 1.1160 Asian low and extended to a 1.1135 London low on French fiscal stress and pre-FOMC dollar demand. Higher lows since have lifted price to 1.1153, retesting the broken 1.1150 area at the 61.8% of the London selloff, with Durable Goods printing on this bar.
Support: 1.11419, 1.11352
Resistance: 1.11534, 1.11604, 1.11646
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1153 rebound high brings the 1.1160 Asian low and the 1.1165 lower high into play
Failure to hold the 1.1142 higher low undoes the recovery and re-exposes the 1.1135 London low
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range and is now carving higher lows under the 1.1152 cap.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1163 and extended to a 1.1135 session low on pre-Fed dollar demand and French fiscal stress. Since then price has built a higher low at 1.1142 and is now pressing the 1.1152 intraday cap. That cap sits near the 61.8% fib of the London drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1163, 1.1176
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1152 intraday cap opens a retest of the asian low at 1.1163, then the asian high at 1.1176
Loss of the 1.1142 higher low breaks the bounce structure and reopens the 1.1135 session low, with 1.1100 psych below
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC land at NY open and could materially shift this read
Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC, an event risk for the late NY session
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; tight 1.1142–1.1151 compression under a triple cap.
The London session broke the Asian low at 1.1160 and pressed to a session low of 1.1135, extending EUR's slide on French fiscal stress and pre-Fed dollar demand. The rebound hit a triple cap at 1.1150, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-low leg and EMA20. Price is now compressing between the 11:30 higher low at 1.1142 and that cap into the NY open.
Support: 1.11419, 1.11352, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11506, 1.11604
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could break the 1.1142–1.1151 compression
An M15 close above the 1.1151 triple cap opens a retest of the broken asian low at 1.1160, with the asian high at 1.1176 beyond
Failure at the 1.1142 higher low, then the 1.1135 session low, resumes the lower-low sequence toward 1.1100 psych
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC is the second risk window and could materially shift this read
Lower highs below broken Asian low; 50% retrace capped.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1162 and extended to a 1.1135 session low, with French fiscal stress and pre-FOMC dollar demand driving the slide. The rebound stalled three times at the 50% retrace near 1.1150, where the ema20 cap sits. Price is back at the 1.1142 intraday low late in London, RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1162, 1.1177
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1151 ema20 cap, then back above the 1.1162 asian low, would undo the London range break
Failure to hold the 1.1135 session low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the 1.1100 psych level as the next marker
A hold below the lower highs keeps the rebound to the 50% retrace on the london leg fib as the cap
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC near the NY open could break the 1.1135–1.1151 band
Lagarde speech 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The 1.1177 asian high comes into play only if price reclaims the 1.1162 asian low
Lower highs from the Asian session; higher low at 1.1138 off the 1.1135 session low.
London broke the asian low near 1.1160 and slid to a 1.1135 session low as French bond stress and a firm USD weighed on EUR. A higher low at 1.1138 has carried price back into the 1.1150 retest zone, where the early-London breakdown level, the 50% fib and EMA20 converge. Price is capped there so far.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1160
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1151 retest zone opens the path back to the asian low at 1.1160
A break of the 1.1138 higher low and the 1.1135 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC. December-hike guidance is the main EUR swing risk
London lower lows below Asian range, bounce making a higher low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1162 and ran to a 1.1135 session low, matching the 1.1135/1.1140 support flagged amid French bond stress and a firm USD. The bounce printed a higher low at 1.1138 but is stalling at the 1.1150 bounce high, the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high-to-session-low leg, with EMA20 just overhead and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1156, 1.1162
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1150 bounce high opens the 50% fib at 1.1156 and the Asian low at 1.1162
Loss of the 1.1138 higher low and a break of the 1.1135 session low resumes the London downleg
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, then Lagarde at 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows after London broke the Asian range; minor higher low at 1.1138.
London open broke the Asian low near 1.1162, extending the slide to a 1.1135 session low as French bond stress and a firm USD kept pressure on EUR. Price is bouncing off a higher low at 1.1138 and is now pressing the ema20 near 1.1150, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the asian high to London low drop. RSI(14) has recovered to 38.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1162, 1.1176
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1150 ema20 opens a retest of the 1.1162 asian low; reclaiming 1.1176 asian high would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.1138 higher low and a break of the 1.1135 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the read in the NY session
Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC, the key EUR risk event later today
Lower highs since London open; first higher low at 1.1138.
London open broke the Asian range (1.1160–1.1177) lower and ran to a 1.1135 session low by 09:30 UTC, driven by pre-FOMC dollar buying and French fiscal stress. Price has since printed a higher low at 1.1138 and is retesting the broken 1.1150 area, where EMA20 and the 50% fib of the London leg (1.1165 london high to session low) converge.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1165
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1151 (ema20/fib50) opens the path to the 1.1165 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1138 higher low exposes the 1.1135 session low and resumes the lower-low chain
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low broken at London open, tight 1.1135–1.1144 pause.
London broke below the 1.1160–1.1177 Asian range at the open and extended through the 1.1150 breakdown level to a 1.1135 session low, with the pre-FOMC USD bid and French fiscal stress driving the move. The rebound stalled at 1.1144, below the 38.2% of the breakdown leg, and the descending resistance line from Monday's 1.1195 high still caps the structure. RSI(14) sits near 29.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11444, 1.1150, 1.1160
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1150 (breakdown level) would stall the lower-low chain and bring the asian low at 1.1160 back into play
Close below the 1.1135 session low extends the sequence; the 1.1100 round number is the next reference
Recovery capped below the bounce high at 1.1144 keeps price inside the tight pause just above the low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC during NY hours could move the session range
Lagarde 17:00 UTC: any pushback on a December hike could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range; bounce capped under 1.1150.
London broke the 1.1162 Asian low at the open, and the soft EZ M3 print at 09:00 UTC drove a second leg to a 1.1135 session low. The mid-London bounce stalled at the 1.1145 bounce high, short of the 38.2% fib of the 1.1165–1.1135 drop, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1145, 1.1152, 1.1162
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1152 London low and the 38.2% fib would break the lower-high chain
Failure at 1.1135 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1162 Asian low negates London's range break
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, first pause at session low · RSI 26 · price 1.11394
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower before London.
The 1.1162–1.1177 Asian range gave way just before London. The London session then extended the leg to a 1.1135 session low on pre-Fed dollar demand, a soft EZ M3 print and French fiscal stress. RSI(14) is near 26 and the first bounce stalled at the 1.1145 bounce high, with price sitting in the 1.1135–1.1150 support band.
Support: 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1145, 1.1155, 1.1162
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1135 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the 1.1145 bounce high and then the 1.1155 london base (61.8% of the london leg fib) would neutralise the breakdown
A move back above the 1.1162 asian low puts price back inside the overnight range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 19 · price 1.11369
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since Monday's 1.1195 high.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1162, then the 09:00 UTC bar cut through the 1.1150 prior low. Price is now at a fresh session low of 1.1135, extending the lower-high sequence from Monday's 1.1195. French fiscal stress and pre-Fed dollar demand remain the backdrop. RSI(14) near 19 is stretched, and price sits at the 1.1135 area the digest flags as a target.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1130
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.11624, 1.11765
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1135 session low exposes the 1.1130 round number
Recovery back above the 1.1150 prior low (38.2% fib of the Asian high leg) would ease the breakdown read
Lower-high line from 1.1195 caps near 1.1160, overlapping the 1.1162 Asian low; reclaiming the 1.1177 Asian high negates the sequence
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 23 · price 1.11395
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower.
A clean lower-highs sequence from yesterday's 1.1195 bounce saw London break the 1.1160–1.1177 Asian range. The 09:00 UTC bar, which coincided with the ECB lending survey, cut through the 1.1150 break level to a 1.1137 session low, with pre-FOMC dollar demand and French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched; the 1.1165 swing high and the 38.2% retrace near 1.1152 cap the leg.
Support: 1.1137, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1177
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1137 session low exposes the 1.1135 digest support, with the 1.1100 round number next
M15 close back above the 1.1150 break level and 38.2% retrace eases the extension read
Break of the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1165 swing high would end the intraday lower-high chain
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC could extend or reverse the leg
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1177 asian high marks the top of the breakdown
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower-high/lower-low chain pressing 1.1150.
London opened with a break of the Asian low near 1.1160 and extended to a 1.1150 session low. Pre-FOMC dollar demand and French fiscal stress are weighing on EUR. The bounce stalled at the 1.1165 London high, below the broken range floor, and price stays capped under a descending trendline with RSI(14) near 30 but not yet extreme.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.11646, 1.11765
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1150 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1135 support zone
Recovery above the Asian low and London high (1.1160–1.1165) breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Close back above the 1.1177 Asian high invalidates the range-break read
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain into European morning.
EUR/USD slipped through the asian low at 1.1163 into the European open and printed a session low near 1.1150, as pre-FOMC dollar demand and French fiscal stress kept the euro heavy. The 07:45 UTC bounce stalled just under the broken asian low, extending the chain of lower highs. RSI(14) is near 29, soft but not at an extreme.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1163, 1.1176
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1150 session low exposes 1.1135 next support
Recovery above 1.1163 asian low breaks the lower-highs line; a reclaim of 1.1176 asian high would neutralise the range break
ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC), US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; session low tested twice.
The 1.1162–1.1177 Asian range broke lower into the London open, extending the decline from Monday's 1.1195 prior high to a 1.1152 session low on pre-Fed USD demand and France fiscal stress. A second probe at 1.1153 has held so far. The 1.1165 lower high caps the bounce, with RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11519, 1.1140
Resistance: 1.11646, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1152 session low exposes next support at 1.1140
Recovery above the 1.1165 lower high would break the intraday lower-high chain; the asian high at 1.1177 sits above
Close back above the descending trendline from the 1.1195 prior high would undercut the downtrend read
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC and US Durables 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Lagarde speaks 17:00 UTC
Asian range broken lower at London open; retest of asian low rejected.
London open broke the 1.1162–1.1177 Asian range lower and printed a london low at 1.1152. The bounce stalled at the old asian low near 1.1164, the 50% retrace of the Asian high to London low leg, and the lower-high chain from the ny high at 1.1195 still holds. Pre-FOMC dollar demand and soft French confidence are behind the drift. RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.11519, 1.1140
Resistance: 1.11646, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC; signs of credit tightening could extend the move through the london low at 1.1152
An M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1164 and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain; the asian high at 1.1177 is next above
Acceptance below 1.1152 brings the 1.1140 area into view
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
London broke below Asian range, retest of range low rejected.
London opened with a break below the Asian low near 1.1163 and printed a 1.1152 session low. The rebound stalled at 1.1165 for another lower high, extending the sequence from Monday's 1.1195 prior high under the descending trendline as pre-FOMC dollar demand and the French risk premium weigh on EUR. RSI(14) at 33, ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1140
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1177, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1165 asian low returns price to the Asian range and tests the descending trendline
Break of the 1.1152 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1140 psych
Reclaim of the 1.1177 asian high would neutralise the London range break
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; rebound capped at the old Asian low.
London open broke the Asian range and printed a london low at 1.1152. The rebound stalled near 1.1165, a retest of the broken asian low from below, and price is back at 1.1159, about an hour into London. The lower-high chain from Monday's ny swing hi at 1.1195 is intact on pre-FOMC USD demand and French fiscal pressure on EUR. RSI(14) at 35 is soft but not oversold, and the bounce has stayed under the 38.2% fib of the ny swing hi to london low leg.
Support: 1.11519, 1.1140
Resistance: 1.11624, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 1.1152 extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1140 zone
An M15 close back above the asian high at 1.1177 (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 GMT, US Durables 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce off new low · RSI 40 · price 1.11645
Lower highs since Monday NY; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
Monday's slide from 1.1216 extended at the London open. Price swept the Asian low at 1.1162 to a 1.1152 London low, then reclaimed 1.1164 and is now pressing the lower-high trendline. Pre-FOMC USD demand and the French risk premium keep rallies shallow, with price still below EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1152
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1176
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1162 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1152 London low
Close above the 1.1169 swing high and the lower-high trendline opens the 1.1176 Asian high
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 GMT, US Durables 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain; sweep of Asian low reclaimed, retesting from below.
Monday's Ifo/Moody's pop to 1.1216 fully unwound as pre-FOMC dollar buying drove a lower-high, lower-low sequence through London and NY. Early European trade swept the Asian low at 1.1162 down to the 1.1152 sweep low and snapped back. Price is now testing the Asian low from below, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.11519, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11624, 1.11686, 1.11765
What it said to watch
Holding back above the asian low at 1.1162 confirms the 1.1152 sweep as a false break; rejection there keeps the lower highs trendline in control
M15 close above the 1.1169 swing high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 1.1177 asian high in view
Loss of the 1.1152 sweep low exposes the 1.1150 round number, then the 1.1135–1.1140 support zone
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; LL at 1.1152, LH at 1.1169.
London open broke the 1.1162 Asian low and dropped to a 1.1152 London low. That extends the lower-high/lower-low sequence from yesterday's 1.1216 Ifo/Moody's spike as pre-FOMC USD demand persists. RSI(14) sits near 26 with price below both EMAs, and the 1.1169 swing high marks the latest lower high.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1150, 1.1138
Resistance: 1.1162, 1.1169, 1.1177
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1162 asian low, which sits near the 38.2% retrace, would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1150 round number exposes the 1.1135–1.1140 support zone
A push through the 1.1169 swing high and back toward the 1.1177 asian high breaks the lower-high chain
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC, US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1216 spike; Asian range broken lower.
A lower-high, lower-low chain has held since Monday's 1.1216 Ifo/Moody's spike faded on pre-FOMC USD demand. Price slipped through the Asian low at 1.1162 into London open, printing a fresh window low at 1.1158 under the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, but the 1.1169 lower high has not been challenged.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1138
Resistance: 1.11624, 1.11686, 1.11765
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1162 Asian low would mark the break as a false break.
A close above the 1.1169 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain.
Reclaim of the 1.1177 Asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read.
A failure to hold the 1.1150 round number exposes the 1.1135–1.1140 support zone.
The ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the read. Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC.
The pre-FOMC USD bid and France fiscal stress carried the pair through Monday's 1.1173 low in Asia. Price is now testing the 1.1162 Asian low for a third time into London open, with each bounce capped by a lower high, the latest at 1.1169. Range is tight: RSI(14) is 36 and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1176, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1162 Asian low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1150 psych level
Close above the 1.1169 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; reclaiming the 1.1176 Asian high flips the Asia structure
The 1.1195 NY high marks the top of the fib retracement of the leg down
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing near lows · RSI 35 · price 1.11647
Lower highs from 1.1195; Asian low 1.1162 retested and held.
Monday's slide from 1.1219 on pre-FOMC USD demand and France fiscal stress extended to the 1.1162 Asian low, and a second test at 1.1163 ahead of the London open has held so far. Price sits under the lower-highs trendline with a minor high at 1.1169 and the Asian top at 1.1174 capping; RSI(14) is near 35, soft but not oversold, and ATR sits under 3 pips.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1174, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1162 Asian low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1150 round number in view
Recovery above the 1.1174 Asian top breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.1195 swing high
Reclaim of the 1.1169 minor high would turn the 1.1162 retest into a short-term base
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC, US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1195 NY high; Asia range 1.1162–1.1177 with retest of lows.
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1195 NY high carried price below the 1.1173 Monday low in Asia as pre-FOMC dollar demand persisted. Late Asia retested the 1.1163 Asia low and held, leaving a tentative double bottom. RSI(14) sits near 42 ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.1163, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1177, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1163 Asia low negates the double bottom and exposes the 1.1150 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1173 Monday low and the Asia lower-highs trendline puts the 1.1177 Asian high (38.2% of the NY high to Asia low drop) in play
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 39 · price 1.11663
Lower highs from 1.1216; late-Asia range 1.1162–1.1177.
Monday's Ifo-driven pop to 1.1216 faded through London as pre-FOMC dollar demand built, leaving a lower-highs chain from the 1.1195 swing high. Late Asia holds a tight 1.1162–1.1177 range below the Monday low and the 1.1170 multi-week floor, with the Asian low tested twice and ATR down near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1177, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1162 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1150 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1173 Monday low and the 1.1177 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC (12:00 broker) lands in the London session and could break the Asian range
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read later in the day
Lower highs under 1.1174, Asian low 1.1162 tested twice.
Late Asia, about two hours before London open. Asia broke below Monday's 1.1173 prior low, extending the reversal from the post-Ifo NY high at 1.1195 as pre-FOMC dollar demand persists. Since then the 1.1162 Asian low has been tested twice and held, with lower highs capping under 1.1174. RSI(14) sits near 37 and ATR is under 3 pips, so the range is compressed.
Support: 1.1162
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1162 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1174 prior low would neutralise the Asia breakdown and expose the descending trendline
Only a break of the 1.1195 NY high flips the intraday structure
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could break the compression
Lower highs from 1.1195 NY high; Asian range low under test.
Pre-FOMC dollar demand erased yesterday's Ifo lift. London broke the 1.1180 prior floor, and the NY bounce to the 1.1195 NY high faded into the close. Late Asia is now pressing the 1.1162 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 31 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1176, 1.1180, 1.1195
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1162 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1150 psych.
A recovery above the 1.1176 Asian high, which sits alongside the 38.2% fib, puts the 1.1180 prior floor back in play as resistance.
London open, then the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
RSI(14) dropping below 25 on a London-open push would mark the move as stretched.
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into London · RSI 38 · price 1.11661
Lower highs under 1.1174, retesting Asian low.
The Ifo pop to 1.1216 faded on pre-FOMC dollar demand. EUR/USD stepped lower all day, and the NY high at 1.1195 capped the late bounce. In Asia, a spike to the 1.1162 Asian low was bought back, but later bounces formed lower highs under the 1.1174 prior low, and price is back near 1.1166 before London with RSI(14) ~38.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1177, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1162 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
Recovery above the 1.1174 prior low and 1.1177 asian high puts price back inside yesterday's range, with the 1.1195 ny high next
Lower highs line from the Asian session caps price near 1.1171; a close above it breaks the micro-downtrend
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.11683
Lower highs since London; tight Asian consolidation above sweep low.
Pre-FOMC USD buying drove a steady London-NY slide from 1.1221. The NY bounce to the 1.1195 ny high faded into a lower high, and Asia swept the 1.1162 asian low at 01:00 UTC before snapping back. Price is now pinned at the bottom of a 1.1166–1.1174 consolidation, below the 1.1170 floor flagged in the digest, with RSI near 44 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.1166, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1166 range low exposes the 1.1162 asian low; a break there extends the 24h decline
A close above the 1.1174 range top and 1.1177 asian high breaks the descending lower-high line
London open (08:00 UTC) and the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC could expand the compressed Asian range
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.1170
Lower highs from 1.1195; tight Asian range 1.1166–1.1174 above a reclaimed false break.
Monday's London slide from 1.1216 and the failed NY bounce at the 1.1195 ny high leave a lower-high sequence, with pre-FOMC dollar demand driving the move per the digest. Late Asia is compressing between the 1.1166 asian base and the 1.1174 asian cap after a 01:15 UTC false break to the 1.1162 asian low was reclaimed. Price sits on the 23.6% fib and the 1.1170 range floor.
Support: 1.1166, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1162 asian low extends the lower-low sequence through the 1.1170 range floor
M15 close above the 1.1177 asian high and the 38.2% fib at 1.1175 reopens the 1.1195 ny high
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and US durable goods at 12:30 UTC could break the 1.1166–1.1174 Asian range at the London/NY opens
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, flattening in late Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.11714
Lower highs from 1.1216; tight Asian range 1.1162–1.1177 on the range floor.
Monday's Ifo high at 1.1216 was fully faded on pre-FOMC dollar buying. Lower highs ran through the 1.1195 NY high into a close at the lows. Asia has compressed into a 1.1162–1.1177 range after a 01:00 UTC false break below the 1.1170 range floor was quickly reclaimed, with ATR near 3 pips and price sitting on the floor.
Support: 1.1170, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.11765, 1.1195, 1.12159
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1162 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1177 Asia high (38.2% of the 1.1195–1.1162 fib) puts the 1.1195 NY high back in focus; rejection there keeps lower highs intact
London open in ~2.5h and the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC likely to break the Asian range
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift this read via DXY around 102.00
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.11723
Lower highs from 1.1195; Asian false break of the 1.1173 NY low reclaimed, tight 1.1165–1.1174 box.
The Ifo-driven London pop to 1.1216 was sold on pre-FOMC USD demand, and price carved lower highs down to the 1.1173 NY low. Asia broke that low to 1.1162 at 01:00 UTC but reclaimed it within one bar, a false break. Price is now boxed between 1.1165 and 1.1174 (38.2% fib) and sitting on ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.1165, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.11857, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1174 range top and 38.2% fib opens the 1.1186 NY bounce high, with the 1.1195 lower high and the lower-highs trendline above that
M15 close below the 1.1165 range floor exposes the 1.1162 Asian low; a break there negates the false-break read and extends the downtrend
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC, early in the London session, could break the Asian box; US Durable Goods follows at 12:30 UTC
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.11719
Lower highs from 1.1195, tight range after a sweep of 1.1170.
Yesterday's London–NY selloff from 1.1220 broke 1.1200 on pre-FOMC dollar demand. The bounce stalled at the 1.1195 ny high and price drifted lower into Asia. At 01:00 UTC Asia swept the 1.1170 floor to a 1.1162 sweep low and reclaimed it, leaving a 1.1169–1.1174 range just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1162
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1177, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1174 range high and the 1.1177 asian high, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence from the ny high
Close below the 1.1169 range low, then loss of the 1.1162 sweep low, resumes the downtrend leg
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.1173
Lower highs from 1.1222; Asia sweep to 1.1162 rejected, tight range 1.1167–1.1177.
Pre-FOMC dollar demand faded the post-Ifo bounce at 1.1216, and the late-NY lower high at 1.1195 extended Monday's chain of lower highs from 1.1222. In Asia, a sweep to the 1.1162 asian low at 01:00 UTC snapped back. Price now coils in a 1.1167–1.1177 range, below the asian high, the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the ny high to asian low drop.
Support: 1.1167, 1.1162
Resistance: 1.1177, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1177 asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the Asia range; 1.1195 ny high and the 1.1200 round number sit above
Acceptance below the 1.1162 asian low turns the rejected sweep into a fresh lower-low
Failure to hold the 1.1167 range low into London open puts the asian low back in play
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US durable goods also due today
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.11697
Lower highs from 1.1195 NY high; Asia sweep of Monday low reclaimed, capped at 1.1174.
Asia pushed through the 1.1173 Monday low to 1.1162 and snapped back, but every rebound has stalled at 1.1174, leaving price pinned in a tight band just above the 1.1167 higher low. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is about 3.6 pips. The lower-high sequence from the 1.1195 NY high, carved during Monday's pre-FOMC dollar bid that erased the Ifo pop, is still intact.
Support: 1.11666, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1174 Monday low and 1.1177 Asian high negates the false-break read and brings the 38.2–50% fib (1.1175–1.1179) and 1.1195 NY high into view
Loss of the 1.1167 higher low and the 1.1162 Asia low extends the lower-low chain
London open at 07:00 UTC typically breaks the compressed Asian range
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC, US durable goods and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could shift this read
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.11714
Lower highs from 1.1195 swing high; tight Asian range 1.1162–1.1177 after false break of NY low.
Monday's pre-FOMC USD bid and fading of EUR rallies after the Ifo beat carried EUR/USD below 1.1200. The slide continued into Asia, where a 01:00 UTC drop to the 1.1162 asian low was rejected within one bar and left a higher low at 1.1167. Price is now compressing near the 23.6% fib of the 1.1195–1.1162 drop, capped by the 1.1174 range cap and the 1.1177 asian high, with ATR near 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.11666, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1177 asian high breaks the Asian range and the lower-high sequence, opening the 1.1195 swing high
Repeated failure at the 1.1174 range cap keeps the late-Asia compression intact
Loss of the 1.1167 higher low brings the 1.1162 asian low back into play; a close below it confirms a lower low
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.11702
Lower highs from London high; tight Asian range after sweep of rollover lows.
Pre-FOMC USD demand erased the Ifo pop at the 1.1216 London high, leaving lower highs there and at the 1.1195 NY high along a falling trendline. Asia swept the rollover lows to the 1.1162 Asian low and snapped back. Price now sits in a tight 1.1167–1.1177 band, capped by the Asian high and trendline, with a higher low at 1.1167 and RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.1167, 1.1162
Resistance: 1.1177, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1177 Asian high and trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1195 NY high and the 1.1200 round number sit above
Loss of the 1.1167 higher low and 1.1162 Asian low extends the downtrend below the 1.1170 range floor
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and London open could break the Asian range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC adds USD-side event risk into NY
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.11713
Lower highs and lows from 1.1225; tight 1.1165–1.1174 box above Asian low.
Monday's Ifo spike to 1.1216 was sold through London and NY, and the pre-FOMC USD bid then carried price through the 1.1195 NY high's fade to a 1.1162 Asian low. Mid-Asia, price sits in a tight 1.1165–1.1174 box with a higher low in place, inside the 23.6–38.2% retrace of the NY high to Asian low drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 47, ATR under 4 pips, and price is just below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11651, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1162 asian low extends the lower-low sequence under the 1.1170 floor
Break of the 1.1174 range top and the 1.1177 asian high opens the 38.2% retrace and then the 1.1195 ny high
Loss of the 1.1165 higher low cancels the Asia stabilisation read
London open and the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC could resolve the Asian range
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.11718
Lower highs from London open; Asia swept below base then reclaimed.
Lower highs since the London open selloff, with pre-FOMC USD demand driving the pair below 1.1200. NY's bounce stalled at the 1.1195 ny high. Mid-Asia, a false break below the base tagged the 1.1162 asia low and was reclaimed within a bar, leaving price pinned around 1.1172 (ny low area) under the 1.1176 asian high, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1176, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1162 asia low extends the lower-highs sequence
M15 close above the 1.1176 asian high, then the 1.1195 ny high, breaks the lower-highs trendline
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift this read; 1.1200 round number above
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.11699
Lower highs from 1.1195; Asian range swept to 1.1162 and recovered.
Monday's Ifo pop to 1.1216 was faded through London and NY as pre-FOMC USD demand took EUR below 1.12. The bounce stalled at the 1.1195 NY high, putting the lower highs trendline in place. Early Asia session swept the range to a 1.1162 sweep low before recovering, and price is now pinned near 1.1170 under the 1.1176 Asian high, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 1.11624
Resistance: 1.11765, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1176 Asian high and the lower highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1162 sweep low extends the lower-low chain
Above 1.1176, the 1.1195 NY high and the 1.1200 round number are the next caps
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC, around London open, could shift this read; Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia range broken lower · RSI 41 · price 1.11684
Lower highs from the 1.1195 NY high; Asian range floor broken and retested from below.
Monday's pre-FOMC dollar bid kept the slide going. The 1.1172–1.1176 Asian range broke at 01:00 UTC to a 1.1162 session low, beneath the 1.1170 floor flagged in the digest. Price retested the 1.1173 range floor from below and was rejected back to 1.1168, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR only about 3 pips in thin Asia trade.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1195, 1.1216
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1173 range floor and the descending highs line near 1.1176 would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1162 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
The 1.1195 ny high caps the descending highs; the 1.1216 ifo high is the post-Ifo spike top and the origin of the selloff
The ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1226; false break below prior low.
EUR/USD slid from 1.1226 to a 1.1173 close as pre-FOMC dollar buying erased the Ifo bounce, carving lower highs at 1.1216 and the 1.1195 swing high along a descending trendline. Early Asia swept the prior low down to 1.1162 and reclaimed it within one bar, and price now sits pinned under the 1.1176 Asian high with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.1173, 1.11624
Resistance: 1.11765, 1.11857, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.1176 asian high opens a test of the 1.1186 intraday cap and the fib 50% area near 1.1179
Break back below the 1.1162 sweep low turns the false break into a fresh lower-low
Close above the 1.1195 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1195; Asian range broken lower.
Early Asia session: the tight 1.1172–1.1177 Asian range gave way in the 01:00 UTC bar, printing a session low at 1.1162 below Monday's prior low at 1.1173 as pre-FOMC USD buying extends. Lower highs since the 1.1195 swing high keep the intraday downtrend intact. RSI(14) is near 27 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.11624, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11732, 1.11765, 1.1195
What it said to watch
A move back above the 1.1173 prior low would turn the Asian range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1162 session low exposes the 1.1160 round number
A close above the 1.1177 asian high and the lower-highs trendline negates the downtrend read
A recovery through the 1.1195 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat in Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.1171
Lower highs and lower lows; tight Asian range at session lows.
Pre-FOMC dollar buying drove a London-session slide below 1.1200, and the NY bounce stalled at a 1.1195 lower high before price ground back down. Asia session is holding a tight range under the 1.1177 Asian high and pressing the 1.1170 psych level, with the 1.1186 swing high capping above. RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1177, 1.1186, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1170 psych extends the lower-low sequence into the UOB range floor
Recovery above the 1.1177 asian high undoes the overnight break of Monday's low
Close above the 1.1195 lower high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the down-structure
ECB Bank Lending Survey 09:00 UTC could shift this read; FOMC Wed is the larger risk
Lower highs from 1.1195; tight Asian range pinned at the session low.
Pre-FOMC dollar buying faded Monday's Ifo pop and drove a NY-session slide below 1.1180. The bounce stalled at the 1.1195 swing high and the decline resumed, with price back at the session low. Asia is compressing in a ~5-pip band beneath the 1.11765 Asian high, with the 1.11857 NY shelf capping above. RSI(14) is near 31 and ATR has shrunk to under 3 pips.
Support: 1.11717, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11765, 1.11857, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.11717 session low exposes the 1.1170 range floor cited by UOB.
M15 close above the 1.11765 Asian high breaks the compression; the 1.11857 NY shelf lines up with the 61.8% of the decline fib.
A close above the lower-highs trendline from the 1.1195 swing high would neutralise the downtrend read.
ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and London open could expand the range from current low ATR.
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC are later risks for this structure.
Lower highs from 1.1195; tight Asian box 1.1172–1.1177 on the day low.
Monday's London session broke below the Asian range, and pre-FOMC USD buying carried the pair under 1.1200 to 1.1173. The NY bounce faded at the 1.1195 ny high, and price is now retesting the lows in a 1.1172–1.1177 Asian box with RSI(14) flat near 46. The session low at 1.1172 sits just above the 1.1170 round number, with the asian high at 1.1177 and the 1.1186 lower high capping overhead.
Support: 1.11717, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11765, 1.11857, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1172 session low exposes the 1.1170 round number, the range floor flagged in the digest
M15 close above the 1.1177 asian high, then the 1.1186 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1195 ny high
London open plus ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian box; Lagarde 17:00 UTC is the bigger event risk
ATR near 2 pips reflects thin Asian trade; expect expansion into London
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing at the day low · RSI 57 · price 1.1176
Lower highs from the Asian high; early Asia compressing above 1.1172.
Monday's slide from the 1.1226 Asian high printed a chain of lower highs, the last capped at the 1.1195 NY high. Pre-FOMC dollar buying erased the Ifo bounce. Early Asia is compressing just above the 1.1172 day low, with RSI(14) near 57 on a small lift and ATR(14) around 2 pips.
Support: 1.11717, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1172 day low exposes the 1.1170 range floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.1180 flip level brings the 1.1195 NY high and the lower highs trendline back into play
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number, near the 38.2% of the day range fib, breaks the lower-high chain
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk to this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.11727
Lower highs from 1.1195 NY high, tight box above session low.
The 1.1216 Ifo spike faded through London and NY as pre-FOMC dollar buying took hold. The NY high at 1.1195 was rejected just under the 61.8% of the post-Ifo selloff, and a lower-high trendline has capped price since. Early Asia is pinned in a 4-pip box between the 1.11717 session low and the 1.1176 box top, just above the 1.1170 range floor, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.11717, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11759, 1.11857, 1.1195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.11717 session low and the 1.1170 range floor extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1176 box top and then the 1.1186 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline
ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of FOMC