Lower highs from 1.1256; 1.1113 double low briefly broken.
Lower highs have been capping EUR/USD since the 1.1256 peak, rolling through the 1.1226 lower high into a double low at 1.1113 as hawkish Fed repricing and the US GDP beat firmed USD. The latest leg printed a 1.1104 window low, the 17-month low, before closing back above 1.1113, a false break on expanding ATR (about 24 pips). Price has reclaimed EMA20 but remains below EMA50 and is pressing the 1.1170 swing high, which sits near the 50% retracement of the 1.1226–1.1104 leg.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.1113 double low reopens the 1.1104 window low and voids the false-break read
H4 close above the 1.1170 swing high and the descending lower-highs line exposes the 1.1226 lower high
Friday's EZ flash GDP/CPI and US ECI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing range base; false break below prior low.
EURUSD has spent three weeks in a 1.111–1.128 range. Lower highs at the 1.1256 swing high and the 1.1226 lower high pushed price back to the range base, with the slide extended by firm US data and December Fed-hike pricing. The latest bar broke the 1.1113 prior low to print a 17-mo low at 1.1104, then closed back at 1.1161 near the 38.2% fib. That false break sits on a 69-pip bar that lifted ATR(14) to about 25 pips. Price has reclaimed EMA20, but EMA20 remains below EMA50.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1226, 1.1256
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1104 17-mo low turns the false break into a range break
Failure to hold the 1.1113 prior low on a retest weakens the false-break read
Close above the 1.1170 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline toward the 1.1226 lower high would interrupt the descending sequence
EZ Q3 flash GDP and US ECI on Fri, plus Fedspeak from Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1269; double low near 1.1113 range floor.
EURUSD has carved a sequence of lower highs from the 1.1269 range high through the 1.1226 lower high. That slide brought price back to the 1.1113 double low, where demand held for a second time this month. The bounce stalled at the 50% fib of the 1.1226–1.1113 leg at 1.1169, and price has since compressed above a 1.1125 higher low. Price sits below both EMAs with ATR(14) contracting to around 21 pips. Softer euro-area data and French spread stress have kept EUR heavy into the ECB, per the macro digest.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1113, 1.1065
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1226, 1.1269
What it said to watch
ECB decision 13:15 UTC and press conference 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Pending US PCE/GDP actuals add two-way risk to the 1.1113 double low
H4 close below the 1.1113 double low breaks the range floor and exposes next support at 1.1065
H4 close above the 50% fib at 1.1169 would confirm the double low and target the lower-high trendline near 1.1202
Recovery through the 1.1226 lower high reopens the 1.1269 range high
Loss of the 1.1125 higher low returns focus to the range floor
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the October low · RSI 40 · price 1.11449
Lower highs from 1.1269 into a twice-tested 1.1113 floor.
Lower highs from the 1.1260 range top through the 1.1226 lower high have carried EURUSD back to the 1.1113 double low, a repeat of the October 14 floor, as French fiscal stress and hawkish Fed pricing weighed on EUR. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib of the 1.1226–1.1113 leg near 1.1169. Price holds just above the 1.1131 recent low, below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 20 pips ahead of today's event risk.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1226, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 double low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1100 psych level in play
Failure to hold the 1.1131 recent low reopens a retest of the double low
Close above the 50% fib at 1.1169 shifts focus to the 1.1226 lower high
Reclaim of the 1.1226 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1260 range top next
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 40 · price 1.11459
Lower highs since mid-October; double low at 1.1113 holding.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since the 1.1255 area, and the latest leg from the 1.1226 lower high reached 1.1113, matching the mid-month swing low to form a double low as Fed hike pricing and French fiscal stress weighed on the euro. The rebound met rejection at the 1.1169 bounce high, almost exactly the 50% retracement of that leg. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 19 pips has expanded around the lows.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 double low and the 1.1100 round number would confirm a fresh lower-low at yearly lows
H4 close above the 1.1169 bounce high (50% fib) opens the 1.1226 lower high and challenges the lower-highs trendline
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC land back-to-back and could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1269; double low at 1.1113 holding.
EURUSD has carved lower highs from the 1.1269 swing high, sliding five sessions on PMI misses, French fiscal stress and USD strength into the Fed, before a second test of the 1.1113 double low drew a bounce after the Fed hold. The rebound stalled at the 1.1169 bounce high, near the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1269–1.1113 leg, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 19 pips is compressed versus mid-month, so the 1.1113–1.1269 range edges are the levels in play.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1226, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 double low breaks the base and exposes the 1.1100 round number and fresh 2026 lows
Close above the 1.1226 lower high and the lower-high trendline ends the descending sequence
Recovery through the 1.1269 swing high would confirm the double bottom
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC and ECB decision Thu 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Rejection near the 1.1169 bounce high / 38.2% retracement keeps the downtrend structure intact