Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.1104 sweep; early Asia pullback in progress.
The flush to 1.1104 during the ECB hold and US GDP/PCE window fully reversed. NY then built a base above the 1.1160 NY range low, and early Asia pushed to a 1.1192 session high. Price is easing back to a 1.1182 pullback low, just under the 1.1185 prior high, with RSI(14) at 58 and the higher-low chain intact above the 1.1171 Asian low.
Support: 1.11819, 1.11712, 1.11605
Resistance: 1.11851, 1.11919, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1182 pullback low exposes the 1.1171 Asian low. Failure there breaks the higher-low chain.
Reclaiming the 1.1185 prior high and clearing the 1.1192 session high puts the 1.1200 round number in play.
A deeper drop into the 1.1160 NY range low, near the 38.2% of the rebound fib, would test the base built after the ECB move.
Eurozone GDP and CPI from 05:30 UTC, then US ECI at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
23:31 UTC
Uptrend, extending in early Asia · RSI 69 · price 1.11879
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.1104 low; NY high at 1.1185 broken.
EUR/USD has fully unwound the post-ECB/PCE drop to the 1.1104 low and pushed through the NY high at 1.1185 to a 1.1192 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 69. The rollover gap filled quickly. The rising trendline from the 1.1161 rally base and the 1.1171 Asian low define the higher-low chain.
Support: 1.11851, 1.11712, 1.11608
Resistance: 1.11919, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the NY high at 1.1185 turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.1200 round number extends the post-ECB rally
Loss of the Asian low at 1.1171 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Eurozone GDP at 05:30 UTC and CPI/HICP at 07:45–08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, extending off the post-data low · RSI 71 · price 1.11879
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.1104, prior-day high broken in Asia.
EUR/USD has recovered nearly 90 pips from the 1.1104 low printed after the ECB hold and US GDP/PCE releases. Early in the Asia session it cleared the prior high at 1.1185 and set a session high at 1.1192, holding above the rising trendline from that low. RSI(14) near 71 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.11851, 1.11712
Resistance: 1.11919, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1185 prior high on an M15 close would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
A break of the 1.1171 Asia low would end the higher-low chain and return price to the prior NY range
An M15 close above the 1.1192 session high puts the 1.1200 round number in play
A close below the rising trendline from the 1.1104 low would put the 38.2% fib of the low-to-high move near 1.1158 in focus
Eurozone GDP/CPI (05:30–09:00 UTC) and US ECI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs and higher lows off the 1.1104 low · RSI 71 · price 1.11917
HH/HL chain since the post-data low, breaking above 1.1185 into early Asia.
EUR/USD made a V-shaped recovery from the 1.1104 17-month low, set after the ECB hold and the hot US Q3 GDP print, and has since built a HH/HL chain. Price cleared the 1.1185 prior high after rollover and is printing a new session high at 1.1192 in early Asia hours. RSI(14) is near 71, and the rising support line off the 1.1160 range base is intact.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1171, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1171 swing low breaks the HL chain and rising support, putting the 1.1160 range base back in focus
Acceptance back below the 1.1185 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
An M15 close above the 1.1200 round number extends the HH sequence beyond the session high
EZ flash GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the recovery runs against a USD-firm backdrop
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.1104 post-data low.
The post-ECB rally has unwound the USD-driven flush to 1.1104 that followed hot US GDP and the ECB hold. Price has pushed through 1.1185 to a new session high at 1.1187 in early-Asia trade, with higher lows intact at the 1.1160 ny base and the 1.1171 rollover low. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not extreme, and ATR sits around 6 pips as liquidity thins.
Support: 1.11712, 1.11605
Resistance: 1.11873, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1171 rollover low breaks the higher-lows chain
Acceptance above the 1.1187 session high exposes the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1160 ny base would put the 38.2% post-ECB rally fib near 1.1156 in play
EZ GDP and CPI from 05:30 UTC Fri, then high-impact GDP at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 1.1104 low; NY range top broken and retested.
The ECB/US-data flush to the 1.1104 low reversed through NY despite the USD-positive GDP read. Price broke the afternoon 1.1160–1.1172 range late NY and held the 1.1172 flip level after rollover. Early Asia printed a new session high at 1.1187 on rising lows, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 5.6 pips in thin liquidity.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11873, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1172 flip level returns price to the prior range
Break of the 1.1160 range low exposes the 38.2% rebound fib near 1.1156
Close through the 1.1187 session high opens the 1.1200 round number; loss of the rising lows line weakens the uptrend read
EZ GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
V-reversal off the 1.1104 sweep low, HH/HL chain, early-Asia break of prior high.
The post-ECB/US-data flush to the 17-month low at 1.1104 reversed into a steady rebound, retracing the hot-GDP selloff in full. Early Asia has now cleared the late-NY prior high at 1.1185 to a day high of 1.1187, RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched. The rollover low at 1.1171 and the NY base near 1.1160 mark the higher-low chain, with the 1.1200 round number overhead.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1171, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1187, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1185 prior high turns the Asia break into a false break
A close below the 1.1171 rollover low breaks the higher-lows trendline
1.1200 round number is the first test above the day high
EZ GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 1.1104 low, holding near highs · RSI 65 · price 1.11783
V-reversal off the 1.1104 low, late-NY breakout above the 1.1160–1.1172 consolidation, gap lower at the daily open now filling.
The US data dump drove EUR/USD to a 1.1104 low during NY hours, then reversed sharply. Late NY cleared the 1.1160–1.1172 consolidation to a 1.1185 day high, and higher lows along the rebound line are intact. Price gapped lower at the daily open and has climbed back to 1.1178, holding above the 1.1171 open low and closing in on the gap.
Support: 1.11712, 1.11605
Resistance: 1.11851, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1185 day high puts the 1.1200 round number in view
Failure to hold the 1.1171 open low reopens the 1.1160 range base
A break of the rebound line would undo the higher-low sequence from 1.1104
EZ flash GDP and CPI from 05:30–09:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday is the next USD swing risk
21:46 UTC
V-shaped recovery off the session low, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 1.11735
Higher lows since 1.1104; range top 1.1172 breached late NY, now under retest.
Strong US GDP and PCE data drove a spike to a 17m low of 1.1104 during NY hours. The drop fully reversed into a 1.1161–1.1172 range, and that range top broke late NY to a NY high of 1.1185. A rollover gap below 1.1180 has pulled price back to retest the range top early in the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1161, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1185, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1172 range top returns price to the 1.1161–1.1172 range and negates the breakout
Break of the 1.1161 range low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 38.2% retrace near 1.1154
Gap fill through 1.1180 and a close above the 1.1185 NY high bring the 1.1200 round number into view
EZ GDP and CPI data from 05:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read, with US ECI due at 12:30 UTC
21:32 UTC
Recovery from day low, late-NY breakout fading · RSI 56 · price 1.11741
Higher lows since 1.1104; consolidation 1.1161–1.1173 broken higher.
EUR/USD hit a 17-month low at 1.1104 after the US GDP beat and in-line ECB hold, then recovered through NY into a 1.1161–1.1173 range. A late-NY breakout above the range ran to a 1.1185 session high, and price has since slipped back to the 1.1172 breakout level into the Asia open.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1161, 1.1154
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1172 breakout level keeps the 1.1185 session high in play; above that, 1.1200 round number is next
M15 close back below the 1.1161 range low invalidates the breakout and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1154
EZ flash GDP (05:30 UTC) and CPI/HICP prints (07:45–09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Intraday rebound from day low, late-session pullback · RSI 55 · price 1.11741
Higher lows since 1.1104; range top 1.1173 broken, now under retest.
US GDP beat drove a NY-open flush to a 1.1104 day low before a full reversal. The late-NY break of the 1.1161–1.1173 range ran to a 1.1185 session high. Price has eased back to the range top at 1.1172 in thin post-NY trade, holding above the swing low at 1.1156 with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1161, 1.1156
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1161 range floor turns the range break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1156 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Close above the 1.1185 session high opens the 1.1200 round number
Thin Asia session liquidity until EZ GDP/CPI 05:30–09:00 UTC and US ECI 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher highs off NY low · RSI 63 · price 1.11805
V-reversal from 1.1104, late-NY break above range top.
NY session reversed hard from the 1.1104 17-month low printed around the US GDP/PCE data and ECB hold, retracing roughly 75 pips despite the broader USD bid in the digest. After a 1.1160–1.1173 consolidation through mid-NY, price broke the range top late in the session to a session high at 1.1185, with RSI(14) near 63 and no extreme in play.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11851, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1173 range top keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below the 1.1160 range low marks a false break
Round number 1.1200 sits 15 pips above the session high and is the next area to watch for rejection or break
NY rally fib 38.2% near 1.1154 lines up with the range low and would be the first test on a deeper pullback
EZ flash GDP and HICP (Fri 05:30–09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during London
Higher lows from 1.1104; NY range 1.1160–1.1173 broken higher.
Price has unwound the post-data slide that took it to the 1.1104 low in the ECB decision bar, after the US GDP beat. The post-ECB rally capped at the 1.1173 prior high, and price held a 1.1160–1.1173 range through NY. Late-NY trade broke out of that range to a 1.1183 session high, with RSI(14) near 67 and not stretched as thin hours roll into the Asia session.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1160, 1.1144
Resistance: 1.1183, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1173 prior high, inside the NY range, would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.1160 range low exposes the 50% fib of the post-ECB rally near 1.1144
Round number 1.1200 is the next reference above the 1.1183 session high
Friday EZ flash CPI/GDP from 07:45 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Uptrend off day low, extending late NY · RSI 65 · price 1.11787
Range break above 1.1173 after a higher low at 1.1161.
The flush to a 1.1104 day low on the US GDP beat and ECB hold reversed into a 70-pip rally. Price then held a 1.1159–1.1173 range through NY hours. Late NY session broke the range top and the prior high at 1.1173 to a fresh day high near the 1.1180 psych level, with RSI(14) near 65. The 38.2% fib of the day-low rally sits at 1.1150.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1159, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A slip back below the 1.1173 prior high into the range would mark a false break
M15 close below the 1.1159 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1150
Acceptance above the 1.1180 psych level brings the 1.1200 round number into view
EZ flash GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC Fri and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 1.1104 low; afternoon range broken higher.
The US GDP beat pressed EUR/USD to a 1.1104 17-month low into the 13:15 UTC ECB decision. Price then rebounded about 70 pips, and the 1.1158–1.1172 afternoon range has broken higher in late NY hours. Price at 1.1174 is testing the session high, with RSI(14) firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1158, 1.1148
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1172 range top turns the late-NY break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1158 range floor exposes the 1.1148 38.2% fib of the rebound off the low
Acceptance above the 1.1175 session high opens the 1.1200 round number
EZ GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC Fri and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Post-spike recovery, now ranging with lower highs · RSI 47 · price 1.11608
V-reversal from 1.1104 session low, capped at 1.1173, compressing above 1.1158 late NY.
The 12:30 UTC ECB hold and US GDP/PCE release pushed price through the london low to a 1.1104 session low, the 17-month low, which failed as a false break. Price then reversed to a 1.1173 ny high. Since 15:15 UTC it has held a 1.1158–1.1173 range, printing a lower high at 1.1169 under the double top, with the range low sitting on the 23.6% fib and RSI(14) neutral near 47 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1173
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1158 range low confirms the double top and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1147, then the 1.1125 london low
M15 close above 1.1173 ny high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure back through 1.1125 brings the 1.1104 session low (17-month low) back into play
Friday EZ flash GDP/CPI (05:30–09:00 UTC) and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Post-sweep recovery, flattening late NY · RSI 56 · price 1.11663
Tight range 1.1156–1.1173 below session high, rising lows.
The 12:30 UTC US data and the 13:15 ECB hold pushed price through the 1.1125 London low to a 1.1104 spike. That move was rejected into a ~70-pip NY rally to the 1.1173 session high. Since London close, price has compressed between the 1.1156 pullback low and the session high, with rising lows into the 1.1160 swing low and RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.1160, 1.1156, 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high extends the recovery toward 1.1200 psych
Break of the 1.1160 swing low and the 1.1156 pullback low ends the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 38.2% retrace near 1.1147
Loss of 1.1125 london low would put the 1.1104 sweep low back in view
EZ GDP and CPI from 05:30 UTC Friday, then US ECI at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Rebound from session low, flattening into range · RSI 51 · price 1.11663
V-reversal off 1.1104, then tight 1.1160–1.1173 range with rising lows.
The NY-session flush to the 17-month low at 1.1104 after the US data dump reversed hard, recovering the Asian and London lows and printing a session high at 1.1173. Late NY price is compressing between the 1.1160 range low and the 1.1173 session high, holding above the fib 23.6 of the rebound, with a rising-lows line from the 1.1156 swing low intact and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.11605, 1.1156, 1.11468
Resistance: 1.11732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high breaks the post-rebound range
Loss of the 1.1160 range low and the rising-lows line exposes the 1.1156 swing low, then the fib 38.2 near 1.1147
Eurozone GDP and inflation from 05:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
V-shaped reversal from spike low, now flat · RSI 50 · price 1.11628
Late-NY range 1.1158–1.1173 above reclaimed London high.
Strong US GDP and claims data, then the ECB hold, flushed EURUSD to a 1.1104 spike low at the 17-month low. NY reversed it about 70 pips through the 1.1152 London high to 1.1173. Late-NY price has since compressed in a 1.1158–1.1173 range, holding above the 23.6% level of the rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 range high ends the compression and exposes the 1.1200 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.1158 range low puts a retest of the 1.1152 London high in play
A break back below 38.2% of the rally fib (~1.1147) would undo most of the reversal from the 1.1104 spike low
EZ GDP flash, CPI and HICP (05:30–09:00 UTC Fri), then US ECI at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
The ECB hold and hot US GDP and claims sent EUR/USD to a 1.1104 session low early in NY. The pair then reversed about 70 pips through the Asian range high (~1.1158). Late NY is ranging 1.1157–1.1173, with two rejections at the range high. The range low lines up with the 23.6% retracement of the rally, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1157, 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1173 range high breaks the double rejection and opens 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold 1.1157 range low puts the 38.2% fib (~1.1147) and the 1.1131 asian low back in play
Friday EZ GDP and inflation flashes (from 05:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; a return toward the 1.1104 session low reopens the downside
18:47 UTC
Post-data V-recovery, now sideways · RSI 50 · price 1.11628
Tight range below session high after spike low.
The ECB hold and the 12:30 UTC US data dump drove a spike to the 1.1104 NY low. That move swept under the London lows before reversing sharply through the 1.1165 prior high to a 1.1173 session high. Since 15:15 UTC price has compressed in a 1.1158–1.1173 range, now slipping back under 1.1165 as late-NY trade thins, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1173
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1173 session high breaks the post-data range higher
Price is back below the 1.1165 prior high; failure to reclaim it keeps the range top capped
Loss of the 1.1158 range floor (23.6% of the NY rally fib) exposes the 1.1152 london high
EZ GDP flash and CPI from 05:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; the 1.1104 NY low remains the downside reference
18:32 UTC
V-shaped recovery stalling into a flat range · RSI 50 · price 1.1163
Post-ECB range 1.1158–1.1173, two rejections at Wednesday high.
The 12:30 UTC US data and the ECB hold swept the London low down to a 17m low at 1.1104, then price recovered about 70 pips in a V-shape. Since 15:15 UTC, late-NY trade has held a 1.1158–1.1173 range, rejected twice at the Wednesday high, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1147, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1158 range low exposes the fib 38.2 near 1.1147
Acceptance above the 1.1173 Wednesday high opens the 1.1200 round number
A return below the 1.1104 17m low would negate the post-ECB recovery
Friday EZ GDP flash and HICP (07:45–09:00 UTC) and US ECI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Sharp V-recovery, now compressing · RSI 63 · price 1.1170
Tight 1.1158–1.1173 range after rebound from day low.
The ECB hold with no December-hike signal drove EUR/USD below the London low to a 1.1104 day low at 13:15 UTC, then NY reversed it through the Asian range to a 1.1173 session high. Late NY is now compressing in a 1.1158–1.1173 band at the prior-day high near 1.1169. The range low sits on the 23.6% fib of the rebound.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high breaks the late-NY range and opens the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1158 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1147, then the 1.1125 london low
Friday EZ GDP flash and CPI/HICP from 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a break of the 1.1104 day low would undo the rebound
V-reversal off day low, tight 1.1158–1.1173 range under session high.
The ECB-hold and US-data drop to a day low at 1.1104 (13:15 UTC) reversed hard during NY hours, reclaiming the Asian high at 1.1161 and printing a session high at 1.1173. Late NY price has gone flat in a 1.1158–1.1173 band, pressing the Fed-day high near 1.1170, with RSI(14) at 65.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1147, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high extends the reversal off the day low
Break of the 1.1158 range low exposes the fib 38.2 near 1.1147
Friday euro-area GDP and inflation prints from 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-ECB low, momentum steady · RSI 66 · price 1.11721
V-reversal from 1.1104 sweep low; higher low at 1.1156, retesting session high.
After the US data and ECB hold, EURUSD swept below the London low to 1.1104. It then reversed and reclaimed the prior high at 1.1169 during NY hours, holding a higher low near 1.1156, close to the 23.6% fib of the rally. Late NY, price is retesting the 1.1173 session high with RSI(14) at 66 and ATR at about 10 pips.
Support: 1.11691, 1.11565
Resistance: 1.11732, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high extends the higher-high chain and opens the 1.1200 round number
Rejection at 1.1173 with a slip back below the 1.1169 prior high leaves a double top at the session high
Failure to hold the 1.1156 higher low breaks the post-ECB reversal structure and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1147
Thin liquidity after NY close; EZ GDP flash and CPI/HICP from 05:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Sharp NY rebound from sweep low, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 1.11673
The US GDP beat and ECB hold drove price through the Asian and London lows to a 1.1104 sweep low. A ~70-pip NY rebound followed and cleared the London high, printing a 1.1173 session high. Since then price has compressed above the 1.1158 range low near the 23.6% rally fib, capped around the 1.1169 prior high; RSI(14) is cooling to ~63.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1173
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high takes out the prior high and extends the rebound structure
Loss of the 1.1158 range low breaks the higher-low chain; the 1.1152 London high and the 38.2% rally fib near 1.1147 sit below
A return under the 1.1104 sweep low would negate the NY rebound
EZ GDP flash and HICP during Friday's London session could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
V-shaped recovery, now flat and consolidating · RSI 61 · price 1.11649
Tight 1.1158–1.1170 range under the session high after a sharp reversal from the 1.1104 low.
The ECB hold and US PCE flush took EURUSD to the 1.1104 session low (17-month low) in the first hour of NY, then sharply reversed about 70 pips to the 1.1173 session high. Since London close, price has coiled between the 1.1158 consol low and Wednesday's 1.1169 high, which has capped four probes, and is holding above the 23.6% retrace with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1173
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high clears the wed high cap and breaks the consolidation
Loss of the 1.1158 consol low exposes the broken 1.1152 london high and the 38.2% fib near 1.1147
A return toward the 1.1104 session low would cancel the V-reversal read
EZ GDP flash and CPI from 05:30 UTC Fri, then US ECI at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
V-shaped rebound, now stalling · RSI 58 · price 1.11635
Post-sweep recovery, tight consolidation under session high.
The ECB hold and US data bars swept below the London low to a 17-month low at 1.1104, then reversed about 70 pips. Price broke the Asian high and printed a 1.1173 session high. Late NY hours are compressing between 1.1156 and 1.1173. The prior high at 1.1169 capped two attempts, and the pullback held near the 23.6% rebound fib above the Asian high, with RSI(14) cooled to about 58.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high clears the prior high cluster and opens the path toward the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1158 Asian high flips the breakout to a false break; 38.2% rebound fib sits at 1.1147, then the 1.1125 London low
A return toward the 1.1104 17m low would void the sweep-and-reclaim read
EZ national GDP (05:30 UTC) and flash Q3 GDP (09:00 UTC) Friday could reset the Asian range
V-reclaim off 1.1104, tight range under session high.
The post-ECB/US data flush hit 1.1104, the 17-mo low, at 13:15 UTC, below the london low at 1.1125. Price then reclaimed 69 pips to a 1.1173 session high by 15:15 UTC. Since London close it has compressed between 1.1156 and 1.1170, holding above the asian high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60.
Support: 1.1156, 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1156 asian high exposes the 38.2% reclaim fib near 1.1147, then the london low at 1.1125
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high extends the reclaim toward the 1.1200 round number
EZ national GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC and flash GDP at 09:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read; 1.1104 17-mo low remains the structural floor
16:32 UTC
Sharp rebound off lows, now stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.11607
V-shaped recovery from 1.1104, compressing in a 1.1156–1.1173 band.
The flush to the 1.1104 17-mo low around the ECB decision and US data reversed hard. The NY session rebound cleared the Asian range high and pushed through the Fed-day spike high to a 1.1173 session high, helped by the soft GDP deflator offsetting the firm USD tone. Since then price has compressed above the 1.1156 range low through the London-NY transition, with highs capped near 1.1170 and RSI(14) cooling to ~61.
Support: 1.1156, 1.1142, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1156 range low exposes the 1.1142 pullback low and the 38.2% rebound fib near 1.1147
Close above the 1.1173 session high extends the rebound, with the 1.1200 round number next overhead
A slide back toward the 1.1104 17-mo low would reinstate the downtrend read
Thin post-London liquidity ahead of Friday's EZ national GDP/CPI releases from early Europe could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Sharp V-reversal off the low, now stalling · RSI 68 · price 1.1169
Higher lows since 1.1104, tight range 1.1156–1.1173.
After the US data, price swept below the london low to a 1.1104 17-mo low at the ECB decision bar. It then reversed roughly 70 pips through the 1.1152 pre-data high to a 1.1173 session high, a recovery the EUR-heavy macro tone does not explain. It is now compressing between the 1.1156 swing low (23.6% of the rally) and the session high into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 1.1156, 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high extends the reversal toward the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1156 swing low opens the 50–61.8% retracement zone (1.1139–1.1131), with the 1.1125 london low just below
Return below the 1.1104 17-mo low would invalidate the reversal read
Fri EZ flash GDP/inflation and US ECI could materially shift this read
V-shaped rebound from 1.1104; higher low at 1.1156 under the 1.1173 session high.
The 1.1104 low printed in the ECB/PCE flush at 13:15 UTC failed to hold. The rebound cleared the Asian high and yesterday's Fed-spike prior high at 1.1169 before stalling at a 1.1173 session high, with the soft GDP deflator offsetting the hot-growth USD read. Into London close, price is retesting the 1.1161 Asian high with a 1.1156 swing low beneath. RSI(14) has cooled to ~58.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1156, 1.1147
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1156 swing low would turn the push above the Asian high into a false break
Loss of the 1.1147 fib 38.2 of the rebound leg exposes the 50% retracement near 1.1139
Close above the 1.1173 session high opens the 1.1200 round number
EZ national GDP from 05:30 UTC and flash GDP at 09:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
V-reversal off 1.1104 low, HH/HL chain back above Asian range.
After the ECB hold, EUR/USD briefly broke below the London low to 1.1104, a 17m low, then reversed through the NY session, reclaiming the Asian range and tagging 1.1173 just above yesterday's post-Fed prior high at 1.1169. The pullback from the session high retested the 1.1156 Asian high and is holding on the rally trendline, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60.
Support: 1.1156, 1.1142, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high and the 1.1169 prior high opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
A break below the 1.1156 Asian high and the rally trendline exposes the 1.1142 swing low and the 50% fib near 1.1139
ECB's Cipollone at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read via December-hike pricing
V-shaped recovery from the ECB low; Asian range reclaimed and post-Fed high cleared.
The 13:15 UTC ECB hold swept below the Asian and London lows to the 1.1104 ecb low. A sharp NY-session reversal then reclaimed the Asian range and cleared Wednesday's post-Fed high, peaking at the 1.1173 session high. Price is now pausing just above the 1.1158 asian high, with RSI(14) near 63, and the chart is running against the EUR-heavy digest tone.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1147, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1200
What it said to watch
ECB's Cipollone at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding above the 1.1158 asian high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back inside exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1147, near EMA20
M15 close above the 1.1173 session high opens the 1.1200 round number
A return below the 1.1104 ecb low would negate the false-break read
V-reversal from 1.1104 low, higher lows, testing 24h high.
The 12:30 UTC US data drop swept the 17m low at 1.1104, then reversed 67 pips in a V-shaped rebound through the london high at 1.1152 and Wednesday's fomc high at 1.1169. Mid-NY session, price is pressing the day high at 1.1172 with RSI(14) near 65, firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1152, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.11715, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fomc high at 1.1169 would turn this into a false break back into the 1.1135–1.1155 range
M15 close above the 1.1172 day high opens the 1.1200 round number
Pullback holding 1.1146 (38.2% fib of the rebound) keeps higher-low structure intact; a break of the rebound line shifts the read
Return below the london high at 1.1152 re-exposes the 17m low at 1.1104
ECB's Cipollone at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Sharp V-shaped rebound off the 17-month low, testing prior high · RSI 64 · price 1.1161
False break below London range, reclaimed Asian range and London high.
The ECB hold and US data knocked EUR/USD through the London low to a 17-month low at 1.1104 early in the NY session. The break failed within the hour. A roughly 63-pip rebound has since cleared the London high at 1.1152, and price is now pressing the Fed-day prior high at 1.1169 with RSI(14) at 64.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1169 prior high opens the 1.1200 round number
M15 close back below the london high at 1.1152 undercuts the rebound; losing the asian low at 1.1131 negates the false-break read
A return to the 1.1104 17m low would reinstate the downtrend
ECB's Cipollone at 15:50 UTC, then tomorrow's EZ GDP/HICP releases, could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Sharp intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 55 · price 1.1152
V-shaped reclaim of the Asian range after a sweep to 1.1104.
The 13:15 UTC drop on the ECB hold and US data broke the 1.1125 london low and swept to a 17-month spike low at 1.1104, then reversed about 50 pips during Lagarde's press conference. Early in the NY session, price has reclaimed the Asian range and is testing the 1.1155–1.1158 asian high. RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s, well short of an extreme.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1158 asian high opens the 1.1169 prior high, the Fed-day spike top
Rejection at 1.1158 plus a loss of the ema20 near 1.1142 puts the 1.1125 london low and the 50–61.8% zone of the spike low rebound back in play
A break back below the 1.1104 spike low negates the false break
ECB's Cipollone at 15:50 UTC, about 1h out, could shift this read; EZ GDP and HICP follow early tomorrow
False break below London low reclaimed; NY testing Asian high.
The 13:15 UTC ECB hold flushed EUR/USD below the London low to a 17-month low at the 1.1104 ecb low, but the move reversed within the hour. The false break produced a 50-pip rebound to 1.1155, and the NY session is now pressing the Asian high at 1.1158 with price back above the ema20 and RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.1140, 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1158 asian high opens the 1.1169 fomc high
Loss of the ema20 near 1.1140 and then the 1.1125 london low would unwind the ecb rebound
A return below the 1.1104 ecb low resets the session to fresh lows
ECB's Cipollone at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Sweep to 1.1104 reclaimed; price back inside London's 1.1125–1.1152 range.
The US data cluster and the ECB hold knocked EURUSD through the london low to the ecb low at 1.1104 before Lagarde's presser lifted it back to 1.1137, a sweep of the 1.1110 area that failed to hold. Price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the ECB drop fib, capped by the post-ecb hi at 1.1145, with the london high at 1.1152 above and EMA20 flat underfoot.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1145, 1.1152
What it said to watch
M15 close above the post-ecb hi at 1.1145 exposes the london high at 1.1152
Failure back below the london low at 1.1125 reopens the ecb low at 1.1104
Lagarde Q&A on December, then Cipollone at 15:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high, sweep of 1.1104 reclaimed back inside the Asian range.
Firm US data at 12:30 UTC and the ECB hold drove a sweep through the 1.1125 London low to the 1.1104 ECB low. The move briefly broke the 1.1110 area before a sharp rebound into Lagarde's presser to the 1.1137 Lagarde high, a ~68% retrace of the London high–ECB low fib drop. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR expanded to ~9 pips.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1137, 1.1152, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1137 Lagarde high exposes the 1.1152 London high; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Clearing 1.1152 brings the 1.1169 Wed high (FOMC spike) into range
Loss of the 1.1125 London low reopens the 1.1104 ECB low; a close below it turns the false break into a breakdown
Lagarde Q&A on the December hike and Cipollone at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia, ECB sweep of 1.1110 then partial recovery.
The 13:15 UTC ECB decision drove a spike through 1.1110 to the 1.1104 ecb low before a fast rejection. Price is now capped just under the 1.1125 prior low (FOMC-bar and London lows) and sits on the 38.2% of the ecb drop fib, with the 1.1119 post-ECB low below. The London high at 1.1152 extends the chain of lower highs from the Asian high, RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR is about 9 pips as Lagarde's press conference gets underway in the first hours of NY.
Support: 1.1119, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1125, 1.1133, 1.1152
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1125 prior low reclaims the London range and opens the 1.1133 61.8% fib
Loss of the 1.1119 post-ECB low and a close below the 1.1104 ecb low confirms a lower low, with 1.1065 the next digest level
A move above the 1.1152 london high would break the lower highs sequence
Lagarde press conference now (13:45 UTC) and Cipollone at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 39 · price 1.1125
Asian range low broken on ECB spike, partial recovery to 1.1125.
The 13:15 UTC ECB hold broke the Asian low at 1.1131 and swept the 1.1110 area to an ECB low of 1.1104. Price has since recovered about 20 pips to 1.1125, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the move from the London high, and sits below both EMAs. Earlier, the 12:30 US data spike stalled just under the London high at 1.1152, extending the lower-high sequence into the first hours of NY.
Support: 1.1104, 1.1065
Resistance: 1.1131, 1.1152, 1.1169
What it said to watch
Lagarde press conference at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the Asian low at 1.1131 (61.8% fib) would mark the ECB break as a false break
Failure to hold the ECB low at 1.1104 confirms a lower low and exposes next support at 1.1065
Reclaiming the London high at 1.1152 breaks the lower-high chain and brings the FOMC high at 1.1169 into view
Lower highs capped under trendline; London broke Asian low, 1.1125 session low retested.
Lower highs since the 1.1169 FOMC high keep price under the lower-highs trendline. London broke below the 1.1134 Asian low, and the PCE-release spike toward the 1.1152 London high was rejected straight back to a retest of the 1.1125 session low. The ECB decision bar is printing quietly at 1.1131 with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1134, 1.1152, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1125 session low extends the lower-low chain and exposes 1.1110 key support
Reclaiming the 1.1134 Asian low puts the London high to session low fib back in play; a close above the 1.1152 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Only a move back through the 1.1169 FOMC high would undo the sequence of lower highs
ECB press conference 13:45 UTC and Cipollone 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read; PCE/GDP actuals are not yet in the feed
13:02 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.11284
London range 1.1125–1.1152 with highs capped; PCE spike reversed to the range floor.
The US data release bar spiked to 1.1150 and fully reversed. The next bar dropped 17 pips to 1.1127, just above the 1.1125 London low. London's rebound stalled twice at 1.1150–52, extending a lower-highs sequence from the 1.1158 Asian high, with price below both EMAs as the ECB decision nears.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and press conference at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read within the next few bars
An M15 close below the 1.1125 london low breaks the London range and exposes 1.1110 key support
A close above the 1.1152 london high breaks the lower-highs line; clearing the 1.1158 asian high opens the 1.1169 fomc high
12:47 UTC
Intraday range, higher lows off the London low · RSI 60 · price 1.11442
Asian low swept, higher lows building beneath a flat 1.1150–52 cap.
London swept the 1.1131 Asian low to a 1.1125 London low after the soft Eurozone ESI. It has since printed higher lows, with the 1.1136 pullback low holding near the 61.8% of the London leg fib. Supply has capped the 1.1150–1.1152 London high three times, including on the PCE release bar; price sits just above EMA50, with the Asian high at 1.1158 and the Wed high at 1.1169 overhead.
Support: 1.11358, 1.11307, 1.11251
Resistance: 1.11518, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and press conference at 13:45 UTC can reprice this range within the next few bars; ATR likely to expand from ~6.6 pips
An M15 close above the 1.1152 London high breaks the cap and exposes the Asian high at 1.1158, then the Wed high at 1.1169
A break below the 1.1136 pullback low ends the higher-low chain and puts the London low at 1.1125 back in play
PCE actuals are not yet in the feed; a delayed reaction could override the current range read
12:32 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since London · RSI 56 · price 1.11442
Higher low at 1.1136 inside the 1.1125–1.1158 range; post-Fed high capping.
London dipped below the Asian low to the London low at 1.1125, then reversed to the London high at 1.1152. The pullback low at 1.1136 held at the 61.8% retrace of the London leg as the US PCE/GDP bar opened. Price is mid-range below the Asian high at 1.1158, and the post-Fed spike high (fomc high, 1.1169) still caps the window.
Support: 1.11358, 1.11251, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11518, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC lands in the current bar; ATR near 6.6 pips is likely to expand sharply
ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and press conference at 13:45 UTC; December-hike guidance could break the range
A close above the London high at 1.1152 and the Asian high at 1.1158 exposes the fomc high at 1.1169
Losing the pullback low at 1.1136 and the rising support line shifts focus to the London low at 1.1125, then the 1.1110 break level
London false break below Asian low, rebound capped at 1.1152.
EURUSD has given back most of the post-FOMC spike to the 1.1169 fomc high, drifting into a 1.1131–1.1158 Asian range as Lagarde's resignation news and soft Eurozone sentiment weighed. London swept the asian low to a 1.1125 session low, then reclaimed it, but the rebound stalled at the 1.1152 london high and has retraced about half of that swing (fib) to 1.1138.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
US GDP / core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read, with ATR near 7 pips set to expand
M15 close below the 1.1125 session low confirms a lower-low and breaks the London false-break structure
Close above the 1.1152 london high reopens the 1.1158 asian high and 1.1169 fomc high
Holding the 0.5–0.618 area of the London swing fib keeps the asian low reclaim intact
London false break below Asian low, rebound capped at session high.
Late London: price slipped below the 1.1131 asian low to a 1.1125 london low, then recovered to a 1.1152 session high, where it was rejected. The 11:45 UTC bar dropped to a 1.1139 swing low, about 40% back into the London leg. That keeps the 1.1125–1.1158 range intact under lower highs off the 1.1169 fomc high, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and price hugging the EMAs.
Support: 1.1139, 1.1131, 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1125 london low confirms a lower-low and a range break
A close above the 1.1152 session high and the lower highs line reopens the 1.1158 asian high and 1.1169 fomc high
Failure to hold the 1.1139 swing low exposes the 61.8% London leg fib near 1.1135 and the 1.1131 asian low
11:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 61 · price 1.11493
Higher-low chain back inside Asian range after false break of Asian low.
London swept the Asian low at 1.1131 down to a 1.1125 London low, then recovered into a higher-low sequence capped so far by the 1.1152 session high. RSI(14) is around 61 and ATR(14) about 6.5 pips. Price sits back inside the Asian range below the 1.1158 Asian high, with the 1.1169 FOMC high from the Warsh press-conference spike overhead as the euro trades heavy into the ECB.
Support: 1.11436, 1.11307, 1.11251
Resistance: 1.11518, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC, can override this intraday structure
A close below the 1.1144 higher low breaks the London uptrend line and the higher-low chain
A close above the 1.1152 session high puts the 1.1158 Asian high and the 1.1169 FOMC high in play
Loss of the London leg 61.8% fib near 1.1135 and the 1.1131 Asian low reopens the 1.1125 London low
Inside Asian range after London sweep of the Asian low; higher-low climb now pausing.
London swept the Asian low at 1.1131 down to 1.1125, then climbed on higher lows to a session high at 1.1152. Price is now easing to 1.1146, holding above the ema20 near 1.1141 and still inside the 1.1131–1.1158 Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral at 56. The post-FOMC high at 1.1169 caps above, and the pair is idling ahead of US GDP/PCE and the ECB decision.
Support: 1.1141, 1.1131, 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1158 asian high breaks the range and exposes the 1.1169 fomc high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1141 and the 50% London rally fib near 1.1139 puts the 1.1131 asian low back in play
A break below the 1.1125 london low would confirm a lower-low and void the sweep reclaim
London sweep of the Asian low, then a higher-low chain back into the Asian range.
London swept the 1.1131 asian low to print a 1.1125 london low, then the London rally built higher lows back to the 1.1152 session high, clearing the overnight lower highs line. Price is back inside the 1.1131–1.1161 Asian range, below the 1.1169 fomc high from yesterday's post-FOMC spike, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1161, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1152 session high exposes the 1.1161 asian high and the 1.1169 fomc high
A return below the 1.1131 asian low reopens the 1.1125 london low and negates the sweep reversal
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
London false break below the Asian low, V-recovery to range top.
The post-FOMC fade from the 1.1169 high carried into London, where a dip under the Asian low (1.1131) to a 1.1125 session low was reclaimed within the hour despite soft EZ surveys. Price is back at the London high near 1.1150, poking through the descending trendline and sitting at the 50% retrace of the post-FOMC drop, with US GDP/PCE and the ECB still ahead.
Support: 1.1146, 1.1131, 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1158 asian high clears the range top and exposes the 1.1169 fomc high
Slip back under the trendline near 1.1146 turns this push into a rejection at the 50% retrace
Loss of the 1.1125 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from London low · RSI 56 · price 1.11439
Asian low swept and reclaimed; lower highs from Asian high.
London swept the asian low at 1.1131 to a session low of 1.1125 after soft EZ sentiment data, then reclaimed the Asian range. Price now sits back near 1.1144, between that low and the london high at 1.1150. The lower highs line from the 1.1158 asian high still caps price, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1125, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1158
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1150 london high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 1.1158 asian high
Slip back below the 1.1131 asian low reopens the 1.1125 session low and the 1.1110 break level
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and press conference at 13:45 UTC are two-way event risk for the range
10:32 UTC
Intraday rebound inside a post-FOMC range · RSI 55 · price 1.11426
London swept the Asian low and reclaimed it; higher lows since 09:15 UTC.
Mid-London, price dipped below the Asian low at 1.1131 to a 1.1125 session low and reclaimed it. Since then it has printed a chain of higher lows back to 1.1143, the 50% retrace of the drop from the Asian high, and is pressing the EMA50 with RSI(14) near 55. The range sits between 1.1125 and the 1.1150 London high, well below the 1.1169 FOMC high, with EUR heavy after soft EZ sentiment data ahead of the ECB.
Support: 1.11307, 1.11251
Resistance: 1.11504, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.1150 opens the asian high at 1.1158
Close back below the asian low at 1.1131 turns the sweep into a lower-low toward the session low at 1.1125
Breaking the London higher lows trendline shows the rebound failing below the 61.8% retrace at 1.1145
US GDP/PCE at 12:30 UTC (~2h) and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read; the fomc high at 1.1169 is the upper reference
10:17 UTC
Lower highs since the post-FOMC spike, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 1.11383
Asian low swept in London and reclaimed; price retesting the 50% retracement of the London drop.
The post-FOMC spike to 1.1169 faded into a lower-high chain from the asia high at 1.1158 to the london high at 1.1150, with soft Spain and Italy data and French risk weighing on EUR. London swept the Asian low to the 1.1125 london low and reclaimed it, and price now sits at the 50% retracement near 1.1138 with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 1.11331, 1.11251, 1.11206
Resistance: 1.11444, 1.11504, 1.1158
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1144 swing high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.1150 london high back in play
Loss of the 1.1133 higher low exposes the 1.1125 london low and the 1.1121 prior low, with the 1.1110 area beyond
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
The post-FOMC spike to 1.1169 has unwound into lower highs: 1.1158 Asian high, 1.1150 London high, then a 1.1144 lower high. Soft Spain and Italy data and French political risk kept EUR heavy into mid-London. London pushed through the 1.1131 Asian low to a 1.1125 session low and reclaimed the level, with price below EMA20 and RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1125, 1.1121
Resistance: 1.1144, 1.1150, 1.1158
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h), then the ECB at 13:15 and Lagarde at 13:45, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below 1.1131 voids the false break; losing the 1.1125 session low exposes the 1.1121 prior low
A close above the 1.1144 lower high and the 1.1150 London high breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.1158 Asian high caps above that
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.11311
Asian low broken in London, now retested from below.
The post-Fed spike to 1.1169 has fully unwound as the USD firmed. Lower highs from the 1.1158 Asian high carried London through the Asian low at 1.1131 to a 1.1125 session low, and price is now retesting the broken Asian low from below with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.11251, 1.11206, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11444, 1.11504, 1.1158
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1144 lower high and the 1.1150 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Rejection at the 38.2–50% London leg fib (1.1135–1.1138) keeps the 1.1125 session low and the 1.1121 prior low in play
A break below the 1.1121 prior low exposes the 1.1110 17-month low cited in the digest
EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT, US GDP/PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range; post-Fed spike fully retraced.
London broke the 1.1131 Asian low and printed a 1.1125 session low, fully retracing the Fed spike to 1.1169 as USD firmed. Lower highs since the 1.1158 Asian high stay intact under the trendline. RSI(14) near 42 shows no oversold extreme.
Support: 1.11251, 1.11206, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11307, 1.11504, 1.1158
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1131 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1125 session low and the 1.1121 pre-fed low exposes the 1.1110 17m low
A break of the lower highs trendline and the 1.1150 london high invalidates the downtrend read, with the 1.1158 asian high above
US Q3 GDP / core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 46 · price 1.11346
Lower highs from the 1.1158 Asian high, equal lows at 1.1131.
EUR/USD has given back most of the post-Fed spike to the 1.1169 fed high as the USD firmed through Asia, and now sits near the 78.6% retracement. Early London tested the 1.1131 session low twice, with the 1.1150 london high capping under a line of lower highs from the 1.1158 asian high.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1121
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1131 session low exposes the 1.1121 prior low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1150 london high breaks the sequence; 1.1158 asian high next
EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT, US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Down from post-Fed high, momentum flattening · RSI 46 · price 1.11382
Lower highs pressing onto flat 1.1131 lows; early London compression.
The post-Fed spike to the 1.1169 fed high fully unwound as USD recovered during the Asia session, leaving lower highs at the 1.1158 asia high and the 1.1150 london high, where the London open met rejection. Buyers stepped in twice at the 1.1131 double low, so the pair is compressing between that floor and the falling line of lower highs ahead of ECB and US PCE, with ATR near 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.11307, 1.11206, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11504, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1131 double low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1121 pre-fed low.
A close above the 1.1150 london high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 1.1158 asia high next.
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read. The outer markers are the 1.1110 oct low and the 1.1169 fed high.
EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT could test the 1.1131–1.1150 compression before the main events.
The post-Fed spike to the fed high at 1.1169 has faded with lower highs at the asian high (1.1158) and the london high (1.1150) as USD firmed overnight. The London open push was rejected, and price is back on the asian low at 1.1131 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1121, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1131 exposes the prior low at 1.1121 and the october low at 1.1110
Close above the london high at 1.1150 breaks the lower highs trendline, with the asian high at 1.1158 and the fed high at 1.1169 above
EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT, US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
The Warsh-driven spike to the 1.1169 fed high fully faded as USD firmed in Asia, printing an asian low at 1.1131. Early London bounced off the 1.1137 london low but was rejected at the 1.1150 session high, which is also the 50% fed retrace. Price is pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) at 46 and lower highs intact from the 1.1158 asian high.
Support: 1.1137, 1.1131, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1150 session high and the lower-highs line from the 1.1158 asian high breaks the post-Asia cap
Loss of the 1.1137 london low and the 1.1131 asian low exposes the 1.1122 pre-fed low
EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT, then US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 GMT and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 1.1169 fed high would erase the full post-Fed retrace
Lower highs since 1.1169, holding inside Asian range 1.1131–1.1158.
The post-Fed spike to the 1.1169 post-fed hi has bled into a chain of lower highs as USD demand returned in Asia. Price is still inside the Asian range, with the asian low at 1.1131 holding. London open was rejected at the 1.1150 london high, the 50% retrace of the post-Fed decline, and RSI(14) sits near 47 with ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1120
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1150 london high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 1.1158 asian high
Break of the 1.1131 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1120 pre-fed low
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT, then the ECB at 13:15 GMT, are likely to override this range read
Inside Asian range 1.1131–1.1158, lower-high chain broken at London open.
The post-Fed spike to the 1.1169 fed high faded through Asia as USD demand returned, leaving lower highs into a 1.1131 Asian low. London open has lifted price off a higher low at 1.1133 and through the 1.1142 prior cap. That puts price at the 50% retrace of the Asian decline near 1.1145, mid-way through the 1.1131–1.1158 Asian range.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1131, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1158 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.1142 prior cap returns price to the lower half of the range
Loss of the 1.1131 asian low exposes the 1.1122 fed low
Rising higher-low trendline from 1.1131 marks the current rebound structure
US GDP/PCE at 12:30 GMT and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read; EZ confidence data at 10:00 GMT
Lower highs since the FOMC spike; tight 1.1131–1.1142 base into London open.
The post-FOMC spike to 1.1169 has unwound through the Asia session in a chain of lower highs as USD demand returned. The Asian low at 1.1131 is holding into the London open, and price sits under the descending trendline and the 1.1142 lower high. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR is about 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1142, 1.1158
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1131 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1122 fomc low
M15 close above the 1.1142 lower high breaks the trendline; the post-FOMC fib 38.2% at 1.1145 and the 1.1158 asian high sit above
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 40 · price 1.1139
Post-FOMC spike fully faded; lower-high sequence inside the Asian range.
The Warsh-driven spike to the fomc high at 1.1169 has faded. Asia printed lower highs from the 1.1158 asian high down to a 1.1131 asian low, with only a shallow bounce to 1.1139 into London open. Price sits under both EMAs and below the 38.2% of the post-fomc fade, with ECB and US PCE ahead.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1122, 1.1116
Resistance: 1.1149, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1149 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and the Asian sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1131 asian low exposes the 1.1122 fomc low, then the 1.1116 prior low near the 1.1110 area
A push through the 1.1158 asian high would reopen the 1.1169 fomc high
EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT, US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the post-Fed spike · RSI 41 · price 1.11377
Lower highs from 1.1169, bounce off the 1.1131 Asian low capped near 1.1142.
The Warsh-driven spike to the 1.1169 fed high has bled into lower highs through Asia as USD regained demand, with the asian low printed at 1.1131 at 06:00 UTC. The 07:00 bounce was rejected at 1.1142, where the 38.2% fib of the 1.1158–1.1131 Asian leg meets the descending trendline. Price sits in the lower half of the 1.1131–1.1161 Asian range, below both EMAs, as London opens.
Support: 1.11307, 1.11279, 1.1116
Resistance: 1.11411, 1.11606, 1.11691
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1131 asian low exposes the 1.1128 pre-fed low and the 1.1116 prior low near the 1.1110 multi-month floor
An M15 close above the 38.2% fib and descending trendline at 1.1142 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1161 asian high back in view
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT and Lagarde at 13:45 GMT, could materially shift this read
A move through the 1.1169 fed high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, bounce stalling · RSI 39 · price 1.11375
Lower highs since 1.1158; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
Post-Warsh gains from the 1.1169 fed high faded through Asia on renewed USD demand. A lower-high chain runs from the 1.1158 Asian high, and the pre-London dip broke the Asian low to a 1.1131 swing low before reclaiming it. The bounce stalled at the 1.1140 lower high, which lines up with the 38.2% retrace and the descending trendline, as London opens with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1122, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1140, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1140 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1158 Asian high is next
Loss of the 1.1131 swing low resumes lower lows toward the 1.1122 fed low, with 1.1110 yearly low below
US core PCE, Q3 GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT and the presser at 13:45, could materially shift this read
10:00 GMT EZ sentiment (ESI f/c 97.5) is the first test of London's range
06:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.11382
Lower-high chain from 1.1158; bounce off 1.1131 pressing trendline.
EURUSD has unwound the post-Warsh spike to the 1.1169 post-Fed high. Renewed USD demand during the Asia session drove a slide from the 1.1158 Asian high to a 1.1131 session low just before the European open. The latest bounce is pressing the descending trendline near 1.1140, with price still below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.11307, 1.11222
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and 1.1145 breaks the lower-high chain, putting the 1.1158 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1131 session low exposes the 1.1122 fed low from the Warsh presser
US PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.11364
Lower-high chain off 1.1158; false break of Asian low at 1.1131, reclaimed pre-London.
Most of the post-Fed spike from the 1.1122 fed low to the 1.1169 fed high has been retraced, with Asia printing lower highs off the 1.1158 asian high as USD demand returned ahead of the ECB. A 06:00 GMT dip to the 1.1131 session low undercut the Asian low and was reclaimed. Price sits below the 1.1141 lower high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib; RSI(14) near 40, both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.11307, 1.11222
Resistance: 1.1141, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1131 session low turns the false break into a lower low and exposes the 1.1122 fed low
Close above the 1.1141 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the chain; the 1.1158 asian high is the next level, then the 1.1169 fed high
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT (presser 13:45) could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.11335
Lower-high sequence from 1.1158, Asian low 1.1134 broken.
The post-Warsh spike to 1.1169 has fully unwound as USD demand returned. Asia has ground lower from the 1.1158 session high on a clean lower-high sequence, with price now through the 1.1134 Asian low to a 1.1131 session low and RSI(14) near 30. The 1.1124 swing low and the 1.1113 prior low (yesterday's London low) sit below ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1124, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1134, 1.1145, 1.1158
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1134 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
M15 close above the Asia lower-high trendline (~1.1139) or the 1.1145 lower high breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1124 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1113 prior low
EZ Economic Sentiment at 10:00 GMT, US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-Fed spike unwound; lower-high chain in Asia, pressing Asian low.
The post-Warsh spike to 1.1169 has fully unwound as the USD firmed in Asia. Since the Asian high at 1.1158, price has printed a clean sequence of lower highs under a descending trendline, and late Asia is now pressing the Asian low at 1.1134 with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.11336, 1.11222, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11486, 1.1158
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1134 extends the lower-low chain toward the fed low at 1.1122
Close back above the lower high at 1.1149 and the descending trendline breaks the Asia sequence
Wed low at 1.1113 sits in the 1.1110-1.1115 support zone flagged ahead of the ECB
EZ sentiment at 10:00 UTC, US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain off 1.1158 Asia high, pressing Asia low.
The Fed-presser spike to the 1.1169 fed high has unwound. Late in the Asia session, price is printing a lower-high chain under the trendline off the 1.1158 Asia high and sits at the 78.6% retrace of the overnight bounce, just above the 1.1134 Asia low. The fade matches the digest's firmer dollar in Asia. RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.11336, 1.11279, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11458, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1134 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1128 pre-fed low, then the 1.1113 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1146 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
London open, then EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT, US PCE/GDP at 12:30 and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1158 Asian high, pinned at session low.
Late Asia session has bled lower from the 1.1158 Asian high in a steady chain of lower highs. Price has given back about 78.6% of the Asian bounce and sits on the 1.1139 session low, with the 1.1134 Asian low just below, as the dollar firms after the Fed-presser spike to the 1.1169 Fed high. RSI(14) near 39 is soft but not oversold, and ATR is compressed to about 4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.1139, 1.11336, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11486, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1149 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line
Failure to hold the 1.1134 Asian low exposes the 1.1113 yearly low
Reclaim of the 1.1158 Asian high reopens the 1.1169 Fed high
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1158 Asian high.
Asia faded the post-Warsh spike as the dollar firmed. Price fell to the 1.1134 asian low, bounced to the 1.1158 asian high, then ground lower in a lower-high chain to the 1.1140 session low. It now sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Asian bounce, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.1140, 1.11336, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1149, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1140 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1134 asian low and the 1.1113 yearly low
A break of the lower-high trendline near 1.1149 and a hold above the 1.1158 asian high would invalidate the fade, with the 1.1169 fed high above
London open, EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT, then US PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Post-Fed spike faded, lower highs through Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.11437
Lower highs since 1.1158, price at 61.8% of the Asia bounce.
The Warsh-driven spike to the 1.1169 post-fed hi was rejected. The Asia session dollar rebound then dropped the pair to the 1.1134 asian low before a bounce to the 1.1158 swing high. Since then price has printed lower highs under both EMAs and is compressing at the 61.8% retrace near the 1.1141 session low, with London open next.
Support: 1.11407, 1.11341, 1.11222
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1141 session low exposes the 1.1134 asian low, then the 1.1122 fomc low
M15 close above the lower-highs line (~1.1149) and the 1.1158 swing high invalidates the Asia fade read
Rejection near 1.1158 would keep the 1.1169 post-fed hi capped
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday lower highs, drifting into support · RSI 41 · price 1.11433
Post-Fed spike faded; Asia rebound capped at 1.1158 and now a lower-high sequence pressing the 61.8% retrace.
The Warsh spike to the 1.1169 Fed high was fully faded as the dollar rebounded in Asia, dropping the pair to an Asian low of 1.1134 before a bounce stalled at the 1.1158 Asian high. Since then, lower highs under 1.1151 have pushed price back to the 61.8% fib of that Asia swing at 1.1143 into the London open, with RSI(14) soft near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1134, 1.1128
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1143 (61.8% fib) exposes the asian low at 1.1134, then the pre-fed low at 1.1128
Close above the 1.1151 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1158 asian high back in play
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since 02:00 UTC · RSI 48 · price 1.11441
Inside Asian range 1.1134–1.1161; lower highs pressing the 1.1142 swing low.
The dollar's Asia rebound has pared yesterday's Warsh-driven spike to the 1.1169 post-Fed high. Late Asia shows lower highs along a trendline off the 1.1158 swing high, with price now on the 1.1142 swing low. That level sits near the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1134–1.1158 bounce, below EMA20/50. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and ATR is about 6 pips, with ranges compressing into London open.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1134, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1148, 1.1161, 1.1169
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1142 swing low exposes the 1.1134 asian low, then the 1.1113 prior low
Close above the trendline near 1.1148 and the 1.1161 asian high reopens the 1.1169 post-fed high
US core PCE / GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Contracting: rising lows vs falling highs inside 1.1134–1.1160 Asian range.
The post-Fed press-conference spike to the 1.1169 fed high faded, and the dollar's Asia rebound dragged the pair to the 1.1134 asian low before a recovery stalled at 1.1158. Late in the Asia session, price is coiling between rising lows near the 1.1144 intraday low and falling highs off that rebound, flat around EMA20 with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.1144, 1.1134, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1169
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1160 asian high breaks the falling highs and reopens the 1.1169 fed high
A break of the 1.1144 intraday low, then the 1.1134 asian low, exposes the 1.1122 pre-fed low
London open in ~3h is the first test of the rising lows / falling highs squeeze
EZ sentiment at 10:00 UTC, then US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB at 13:15 UTC, can override this range read
Lower highs from 1.1169; mid Asian range 1.1134–1.1158.
The Warsh-driven spike to the 1.1169 fed high has faded into a lower-high trendline as the dollar firms in Asia. The 1.1158 Asian high was rejected and price is back near the 50% retrace of the Asian bounce, leaning on the 1.1144 session low with the 1.1134 Asian low and 1.1122 fed low below; ATR(14) is about 6.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1144, 1.1134, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1144 session low exposes the 1.1134 Asian low, then the 1.1122 fed low
Break of the lower-high trendline and the 1.1158 Asian high reopens the 1.1169 fed high
EZ sentiment at 10:00 UTC, US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:48 UTC
Post-Fed range, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.11461
Lower highs off 1.1158 inside a 1.1134–1.1158 Asian range.
The Asia session has held a 1.1134–1.1158 range below the 1.1169 post-fed hi. Rejection at the 1.1158 Asian high was followed by a lower high at 1.1151 as the USD recovers ground lost during Warsh's press conference. Price is sitting on the 50% fib of the Asian rebound near 1.1145, RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1142, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1151 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1158 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1142 swing low exposes the 1.1134 Asian low
London open, EC sentiment at 10:00 UTC, US PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Sideways, mild lower highs in late Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.11503
Post-Fed range; Asian range 1.1134–1.1158, mid-range.
The Warsh press-conference spike set the fed high at 1.1169. Early Asia made a false break below the post-Fed floor to the 1.1134 Asian low, then rebounded to the 1.1158 Asian high. Price is now late in the Asia session, drifting on lower highs since 02:00 UTC and holding 1.1146, the 50% retrace of that rebound, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.11458, 1.11336
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1146 (50% retrace) exposes the 1.1134 Asian low
M15 close back above the 1.1158 Asian high reopens the 1.1169 fed high
London open in ~3.5h is the first test of the Asian range
EC sentiment at 10:00 UTC, US PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Rangebound after Fed spike, lower highs in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.11475
Asian range 1.1134–1.1158; lower highs since 02:00 UTC, price at fib 50%.
Warsh's press conference lifted the pair from 1.1122 to the Fed high at 1.1169. Asia opened with a flush to the asian low at 1.1134, then recovered to the asian high at 1.1158. Lower highs since 02:00 UTC have pulled price back to the fib 50% near 1.1146, with RSI(14) ~45 and price flat against the EMAs. The swing low at 1.1142 is still intact ahead of the ECB.
Support: 1.11458, 1.11417, 1.11336
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the swing low at 1.1142 extends the lower-high sequence toward the asian low at 1.1134
Close above the asian high at 1.1158 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the Fed high at 1.1169 back in focus
EC sentiment at 10:00 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:45, could materially shift this read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC land ahead of the ECB and add two-way risk to the range
Lower highs from 1.1169 fed high, higher lows inside Asian range.
The Fed press-conference spike on Warsh's 'tightening is working' remark topped at the 1.1169 fed high, and the pair has printed lower highs since. Asia opened with a drop to the 1.1134 asian low before recovering. Price now sits at 1.1148, just under a flat ema20 near 1.1150, squeezed between the 1.1142 higher low and the 1.1158–1.1161 asian high into London open.
Support: 1.11417, 1.11336
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.11606, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1169 fed high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1142 higher low exposes the 1.1134 asian low
EZ sentiment data at 10:00 UTC, US PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could override the range read
Lower highs from 1.1169 against higher Asia lows, contracting.
The spike to the 1.1169 Fed high on Warsh's 'tightening is working' remark failed to extend. The Asia session then broke below the post-Fed floor to a 1.1134 Asian low and reclaimed it, leaving lower highs at 1.1161 and 1.1158. Price is sitting on EMA20 near 1.1149 with RSI(14) neutral at 46, and the 1.1142 higher low sits just beneath.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1142, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1142 higher low reopens the 1.1134 Asian low, then Wednesday's 1.1113 day low
M15 close above the 1.1158 Asian high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.1169 Fed high back in play
EZ sentiment data at 10:00 UTC, US PCE/GDP/claims at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1134–1.1161; lower highs from Fed spike, higher low at 1.1142.
Warsh's presser drove a spike to the fed high at 1.1169, followed by a series of lower highs. Mid-Asia, the dip to the asian low at 1.1134 was fully retraced, leaving a higher low at 1.1142, and price sits just under the asian high with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.11417, 1.11336
Resistance: 1.11606, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1161 breaks the lower highs and puts the fed high at 1.1169 in play
Failure to hold the higher low at 1.1142 reopens the asian low at 1.1134
US PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC (Lagarde 13:45) could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Range after post-Fed spike, Asia recovering · RSI 53 · price 1.11545
Higher low at 1.1142 inside the 1.1122–1.1169 presser range.
Early Asia's USD bid dragged price to the 1.1134 Asian low, which held the 78.6% post-Fed fib of Warsh's presser spike. Price has since built a higher low at 1.1142 and is pressing the Asian high near 1.1160. The 1.1122 presser low to 1.1169 fed high range still frames the session, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.11417, 1.11336, 1.11222
Resistance: 1.11606, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 asian high opens the 1.1169 fed high
Loss of the 1.1142 higher low puts the 1.1134 asian low back in play
A break below the 1.1122 presser low negates the post-Fed recovery structure
EZ consumer confidence at 10:00 GMT, then US PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1169 FOMC high; Asia holding 1.1134 low.
Warsh's presser drove a spike from the 1.1122 fomc low to the 1.1169 fomc high. The dollar has firmed in Asia since, pulling price to a 1.1134 asia low, and the 01:15 UTC rebound was rejected at 1.1155. That bar is a lower high under the 1.1161 asia high and extends the lower-highs line. Price now sits at the 50% level of the fomc spike fib, below EMA20 and flat on EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.1134, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1155, 1.1161, 1.1169
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1134 asia low exposes the 1.1122 fomc low and fully retraces the post-Warsh spike
Close above the 1.1155 lower high and the 1.1161 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1169 fomc high
London open at 08:00 UTC is likely to set the first test of the Asian range
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Range after post-Fed spike, Asia dip recovered · RSI 52 · price 1.11524
False break below late-NY low, V-recovery into 1.1149–1.1169 band.
Warsh's presser drove EUR up to a 1.1169 post-Fed high, and the pair then held a 1.1149–1.1165 band into the NY close. Early Asia flushed through the late-NY low to an asian low at 1.1134 as USD bounced. The drop then reversed in a V, retracing about 70% and stalling at the 1.1155 rebound high. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is about 6 pips as volatility fades.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1134, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1155, 1.1161, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1161 asian high reopens the 1.1169 post-fed hi
Rejection at the 1.1155 rebound high plus loss of the 1.1149 late-ny low puts the 1.1134 asian low back in play
Break of 1.1134 exposes the 1.1122 fed bar low
US PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia broke the post-Fed range floor; corrective rebound now testing it from below.
The Warsh-driven spike to the 1.1169 Fed spike high left a 1.1149–1.1165 post-Fed range. Asia opened with a 25-pip drop through the 1.1149 range floor to a 1.1134 swing low. The rebound has stalled at the 38.2% fib near 1.1144, below both EMAs, with a lower high at 1.1161 capping.
Support: 1.11336, 1.11279
Resistance: 1.11486, 1.11606, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1149 range floor negates the Asia range break
Loss of the 1.1134 swing low exposes the 1.1128 pre-Fed low
Rejection under the 50% fib at 1.1147 keeps the lower-high sequence from 1.1169 intact
EZ Consumer Confidence (10:00 GMT) precedes US PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) and the ECB decision (13:15 GMT); each could materially shift this read
Lower high at Asian high, break below post-Fed floor.
The Warsh-presser squeeze to the 1.1169 Fed high has been fully unwound in early Asia session. A two-bar 27-pip drop broke the post-Fed low at 1.1148 and tagged a 1.1134 session low, right on the fib 61.8% of the London low-to-Fed high leg. Price now sits back at pre-decision levels with RSI(14) near 40, not stretched.
Support: 1.11336, 1.11222, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11483, 1.11606, 1.11691
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1134 session low and fib 61.8% exposes the 1.1122 Fed low, then the 1.1113 London low
Reclaim of the 1.1148 post-fed low would mark the Asia drop as a failed break back into the 1.1148–1.1161 range under the Asian high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, followed by the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1161 Asia high, range break below 1.1148.
The post-FOMC spike to the 1.1169 fed high on Warsh's presser has been fully unwound in early Asia. Two 10-pip-plus bars cut through the 1.1148 post-fed low and took price back to the 61.8% retrace at 1.1134, with RSI(14) near 28. The pre-fed low at 1.1128 and the spike low at 1.1122 sit just below, both above the rising day-low trendline from 1.1113.
Support: 1.1128, 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1148, 1.1161, 1.1169
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1122 spike low breaks the day-low trendline and exposes the 1.1113 day low
Reclaiming the 1.1148 post-fed low negates the range break and reopens the 1.1161 Asia high
US core PCE, GDP and claims at Thu 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Warsh's presser lifted EUR/USD to a 1.1169 FOMC high before price settled into a 1.1148–1.1161 range through late NY. The first Asia session bar broke that range floor and slipped to 1.1144, near the 50% fib of the London-FOMC leg (1.1113–1.1169). RSI(14) sits at 38, and the rising support from the London open low runs near 1.1136.
Support: 1.1141, 1.1135, 1.1128
Resistance: 1.1148, 1.1161, 1.1169
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.1141 exposes the pre-FOMC low at 1.1135, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement
An M15 close back above the 1.1148 range floor negates the Asia-open range break; a close above the late NY high at 1.1161 reopens the 1.1169 FOMC high
A break of the 1.1128 FOMC dip low and the rising support line unwinds the post-Fed leg
US core PCE/GDP and the ECB decision Thursday (~12–13h) could materially shift this read
Asia consolidating 1.1148–1.1161 above the pre-Fed high.
Warsh's presser drove a spike to the 1.1169 fed high, clearing the 1.1152 pre-fed high, as USD sold off after the hold. Early Asia is consolidating between the 1.1148 asian low and the 1.1161 asian high. The asian low held near the 38.2% fib of the 1.1113–1.1169 rally, and RSI(14) is neutral around 52.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1148, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1148 asian low breaks back under the pre-fed high and exposes the 1.1122 spike low
A push through the 1.1161 asian high puts the 1.1169 fed high back in play
Thursday's EZ sentiment data, then US PCE/GDP and the ECB decision, could materially shift this read