NY low 1.1136, higher lows since, capped at 1.1172.
NY broke the London low at 1.1176 and sold to a 1.1136 day low as the USD rebounded on the tech sell-off, unwinding the Asia spike to 1.1214. The rebound has printed higher lows at 1.1140 and the 1.1150 swing low but stalled twice at 1.1172, the 50% fib of the drop from the 1.1206 London high. Late session is compressing above the 1.1163 late low with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 1.11626, 1.11501, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11758, 1.12056
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1172 (50% fib) and the 1.1176 london low reopens the 1.1206 london high
Loss of the 1.1163 late low and 1.1150 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1136 day low
Friday close: weekend gap risk, then Monday EZ retail sales/PMIs and US ISM at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in NY, double bottom then tight late-NY range.
London's 1.1206 high gave way during NY hours. Price broke the Asian range low at 1.1176 and printed a 1.1136 NY low as the USD rebounded on the tech-equity sell-off. A double bottom at 1.1136/1.1140 and a higher low at 1.1150 lifted price back to the fib 50% near the 1.1172 twin highs, with a late-NY range low at 1.1163 holding into the weekly close.
Support: 1.1163, 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1176, 1.1206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 twin highs and the 1.1176 Asian low reopens the 1.1206 London high
Loss of the 1.1163 range low and the 1.1150 higher low on the higher-lows line exposes the 1.1136 NY low
Weekend gap risk; Monday EUR Retail Sales/PMIs and US ISM (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating after NY selloff · RSI 47 · price 1.11646
Asian range broken lower; higher lows 1.1136/1.1140/1.1150 under a 1.1172 cap.
EUR/USD broke below the Asian low at 1.1176 around 12:30 UTC and slid to a 1.1136 day low as the USD firmed on the tech sell-off, unwinding the GDP-beat push toward 1.1214. Late NY has built a 1.1150–1.1172 consolidation with higher lows, capped at the range top just under the 50% fib, with price pinned at the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.11627, 1.11501, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11758, 1.12056
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 range top and back above the 1.1176 Asian low undercuts the breakdown read; london high at 1.1206 is the next reference
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.1163 and then the 1.1150 higher low exposes the 1.1136 day low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; Monday's EZ Retail Sales/PMIs and 15:00 UTC ISM could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1136, capped at 1.1172; tight late-NY range.
EUR/USD failed at the 1.1214 Asian high, and London broke the 1.1176 asian low at 12:45 UTC as the USD rebounded on the tech sell-off. The move flushed to a 1.1136 session low. Since then the pair has printed higher lows along a rising trendline (1.1140, 1.1150 swing low), while the ny high at 1.1172 near the 50% fib has rejected twice. Late NY is compressing in a 1.1163–1.1170 range into the weekly close.
Support: 1.11631, 1.11501, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11758
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 ny high opens a retest of the broken 1.1176 asian low
Break of the 1.1163 range low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1150 swing low, then the 1.1136 session low
Weekend gap risk; Mon EZ Retail Sales 07:00 UTC, PMIs 08:15–08:55 UTC and US ISM 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD dropped out of the 1.1190–1.1206 London range at the London-NY transition and slid to a day low of 1.1136 as the USD firmed on the tech-equity sell-off. Late NY has printed a higher low at 1.1150 and is now compressing in a 1.1163–1.1172 range. A double cap at 1.1172 lines up with the 50% retracement of the drop fib and with EMA50.
Support: 1.11631, 1.11501, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11889, 1.12056
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 double cap opens the path to the 1.1189 breakdown pt
Loss of the 1.1163 range floor exposes the 1.1150 higher low and the higher low line
Break below 1.1150 reopens the 1.1136 day low
Friday close and thin late-NY liquidity raise weekend gap risk into Monday's EZ PMIs and US ISM
NY broke the Asian low at 1.1176 and set a session low at 1.1136 as USD rebounded on the hawkish-Fed backdrop, erasing EUR's post-GDP gains. Late NY is printing higher lows, 1.1140 then the 1.1150 swing low, beneath a bounce high at 1.1172. That cap lines up with the 50% fib and EMA50, and has rejected price twice.
Support: 1.11501, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11758
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 bounce high (50% fib) opens a retest of the 1.1176 Asian low
Failure at the rising trendline and 1.1150 swing low puts the 1.1136 session low back in play
Weekly close within the hour; Monday EZ PMIs and US ISM are the next catalysts
19:46 UTC
Down from London high, late-NY consolidation · RSI 51 · price 1.11666
NY low 1.1136 then higher lows at 1.1140/1.1150, capped near 1.1172.
The NY session reversal from the 1.1206 London high to the 1.1136 NY low unwound the GDP-led EUR gains as the USD rebounded. Since then, higher lows formed at 1.1140 and the 1.1150 swing low. The late-NY bounce is stalling at 1.1172, where the Asian low meets the 50% retracement of the NY selloff.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 asian low and 50% fib re-opens the 1.1189 breakdown pt
Failure to hold the 1.1150 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1136 ny low
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; Monday EZ PMIs and US ISM at 15:00 UTC could reset this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend from London high, recovering off NY low · RSI 54 · price 1.1167
Higher lows off 1.1136, capped at 1.1172 bounce high.
The NY session broke the Asian low at 1.1176 as USD rebounded on the hawkish-Fed backdrop. The slide made a session low of 1.1136, retested near 1.1140, and has since printed higher lows. Late in NY, the recovery has stalled twice at the 1.1172 bounce high, the 50% retracement of the 1.1206–1.1136 leg, with EMA50 sitting at the same area.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1176
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 bounce high and the 1.1176 asian low would reclaim the broken Asian range
Loss of the 1.1150 higher low breaks the recovery sequence and exposes the 1.1136 session low
Thin Friday close; Monday's EZ PMIs and US ISM land after the weekend and could reprice the leg
19:16 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, below 1.1172 cap · RSI 55 · price 1.11659
Double bottom with higher low, capped at 50% fib.
EUR/USD gave up the 1.1214 Asian spike in NY trade, falling from the 1.1206 london high to a 1.1136 day low as USD rebounded on the hawkish-Fed backdrop. Late NY has printed a double bottom at 1.1136/1.1140 and a higher low at 1.1150. The pm highs at 1.1172, the 50% fib of the sell-off, have capped twice.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 pm highs completes the double bottom and puts the 1.1206 london high back in view
Break below the 1.1150 higher low exposes the 1.1136 day low again
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity; Monday's EZ PMIs and US ISM (15:00 UTC) carry gap and repricing risk
19:01 UTC
Rebounding off NY low, capped below 1.1172 · RSI 59 · price 1.11693
Higher lows from 1.1136 into a 1.1172 cap, late NY.
The NY sell-off broke the Asian range low at 1.1176 and set a 1.1136 session low as USD rebounded on the hawkish-Fed backdrop. A double bottom at 1.1136–1.1140 and a higher low at 1.1150 have since lifted price back to the 1.1172 rebound cap. That cap lines up with the 50% fib of the London high-to-NY low drop and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1179, 1.1206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 rebound cap opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1179, then the 1.1206 London high
A break below EMA20 at 1.1162 and the 1.1150 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.1136 session low back in play
Friday late-NY liquidity; Monday's EZ PMIs and US ISM can gap-shift this read
18:46 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, below London levels · RSI 46 · price 1.11634
Higher lows since NY low, capped under 1.1172.
NY hours broke the Asian range low near 1.1171 as the USD rebounded and EUR gave back its GDP-beat gains, extending to the 1.1136 ny low before demand held 1.1140 twice and printed a higher low at 1.1150. Late Friday NY, price sits at 1.1163 on the 38.2% fib of the London high–NY low drop, with the 1.1172 bounce high near the 50% level still capping.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 bounce high clears the 50% fib and opens the path toward the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1150 higher low and rising trendline puts the 1.1136 ny low back in focus
Friday close into thin liquidity; Monday EZ PMIs and US ISM (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, consolidating after NY sell-off · RSI 48 · price 1.1157
Post-drop compression: 1.1172 bounce high above, 1.1150 higher low below.
The selling started at 12:30 UTC and broke the Asian low at 1.1176. Price then fell to a 1.1136 session low as the USD rebounded and EUR gave back its GDP-beat gains. The bounce stalled at the 1.1172 bounce high, near the 50% fib of the drop, and late in the NY session price is holding a 1.1150 higher low just under EMA20 (RSI 48).
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1176, 1.1206
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1172 bounce high puts the broken asian low at 1.1176 and the 1.1206 london high back in play.
Failure to hold the 1.1150 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1136 session low.
Friday close thins liquidity. Monday's EZ PMIs and US ISM (15:00 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts.
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY sell-off · RSI 45 · price 1.11525
Lower highs below Asian range low; holding just above late NY low.
The Asian peak at 1.1214 and a lower London high at 1.1206 gave way in NY as USD rebounded, with the asian low at 1.1176 breaking and the move extending to a session low of 1.1136, retested at 1.1140. The bounce stalled at 1.1172, a bounce high near the 50% fib, and price is drifting at the late NY low of 1.1150 into the Friday close.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11758
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1150 late ny low exposes the 1.1136 session low
Reclaim of the 1.1172 bounce high and the 1.1176 asian low breaks the lower-highs read
Weekend gap risk into Monday EZ PMIs and US ISM (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; bounce capped at 50% fib, lower highs since.
Price fell from 1.1205 through the Asian range low at 1.1176 during NY hours to a 1.1136 NY low, as the German HICP miss and risk-off USD demand weighed. Demand held a higher low at 1.1140. The bounce stalled at the 1.1172 bounce high, near the 50% fib of the slide, and price has since printed a 1.1159 lower high while grinding into the 1.1150 psych level after London close.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1140, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1159, 1.1172, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1150 psych level exposes the 1.1140 higher low and the 1.1136 NY low
Failure to hold 1.1136 confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1105 17-month low in view
Reclaiming the 1.1159 lower high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
A close above the 1.1172 bounce high reopens the 1.1200 round number
Mon EZ PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) and weekend gap risk could materially shift this read
Asian low broken in NY; bounce rejected below broken level.
NY broke the Asian low at 1.1176 and slid to a 1.1136 session low as the soft German HICP and risk-off USD demand weighed on EUR. The 16:00 UTC bounce stalled at 1.1172, just above the 50% fib of the 1.1206–1.1136 selloff and below the broken Asian low, extending the lower highs. Late NY trades back below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 37, holding above the 1.1140 retest low.
Support: 1.11401, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11594, 1.11724, 1.11758
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 bounce high and 1.1176 Asian low breaks the lower-highs sequence
Minor high at 1.1159 capping late-NY recovery attempts
Failure to hold the 1.1140 retest low exposes the 1.1136 session low, then the 1.1105 17-month low
Thin Friday close; Monday's Eurozone PMIs and US ISM can reprice the open
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound capped · RSI 47 · price 1.11563
Broke Asian low in NY, lower high at 1.1172 retest, base 1.1136–1.1140.
London stayed inside the 1.1176–1.1214 Asian range. NY then broke the Asian low and slid to a 1.1136 session low as soft German HICP and risk-off USD demand weighed. The rebound stalled at 1.1172, a retest of the broken Asian low near the 50% fib of the 1.1206–1.1136 drop, and price is back below the ema20 at 1.1164.
Support: 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1164, 1.1175, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1175 asian low negates the rejection and reopens the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1153 swing low exposes the 1.1136 session low
Late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; Monday's Eurozone PMIs (08:15 UTC) are the next scheduled risk
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, rebound faded · RSI 41 · price 1.11533
Asian range low broken; lower high at 1.1172 under it.
The German HICP miss and a risk-off USD bid drove a NY-session break of the Asian range low near 1.1171, reaching a 1.1136 session low before a 1.1140 higher low. The post-London-close rebound stalled at the 1.1172 rebound high, the 50% retrace of the 1.1206–1.1136 leg and the underside of the broken Asian low, and price has slipped back to 1.1153 below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11401, 1.11361, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.11898
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1140 higher low exposes the 1.1136 session low and then the 1.1105 17-month low
An M15 close above the 1.1172 rebound high reclaims the Asian range low and opens the 1.1190 breakdown point
Headlines from Lane and Musalem, plus thin liquidity into the weekly close, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1206; NY low 1.1136–1.1140 holding.
A soft German HICP print and USD haven demand drove a 70-pip slide from the 1.1206 London high. It cut through the Asian range floor near 1.1176 during the London-NY transition before the NY low at 1.1136–1.1140 held twice. The rebound was rejected at the 1.1172 bounce high near the 50% fib, and price now sits on the 38.2% fib at 1.1163, just under EMA20.
Support: 1.1153, 1.1138
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1172 bounce high and the falling trendline reopens the 1.1200 pivot
Failure to hold the 1.1153 swing low puts the 1.1138 ny low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1105
Fed's Musalem (16:30 UTC) and ECB Lane remarks could materially shift this read late in the NY session
Higher low at 1.1140 after 1.1136 session low; reclaiming 38.2%.
EUR/USD broke the Asian low at 1.1176 after 12:30 UTC and slid from 1.1206 to a 1.1136 session low as risk-off flows revived USD demand. The 15:00 UTC retest held at a 1.1140 higher low, and price is now at the 38.2% fib of the drop near the 1.1166 bounce high. RSI(14) is 45 and price is still below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1140, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1176, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Lane (16:10 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) speak inside the next hour and could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 1.1140 higher low breaks the double bottom and reopens the 1.1136 session low
A close above the 1.1166 bounce high exposes the 1.1176 Asian low and 61.8% fib zone, with the 1.1200 round number above
Asian range low broken in NY; higher low at 1.1140 under 1.1164 bounce high.
NY session broke the Asian range, with the asian low at 1.1176 giving way, and slid to a 1.1136 session low as the soft German HICP and risk-off USD demand weighed. A higher low at 1.1140 has lifted price to a 1.1164 bounce high, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of the move from the 1.1206 london high and at EMA20.
Support: 1.1140, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11641, 1.11758, 1.12056
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1176 asian low reclaims the Asian range and invalidates the breakdown read
Hold above 1.1159 keeps the double bottom off the higher low intact; rejection at the 1.1164 bounce high turns it into a lower high
Failure to hold the 1.1140 higher low reopens the 1.1136 session low and the 1.1105 17-month low
1.1206 london high caps the leg; a move through the 50% retrace at 1.1171 brings it into view
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC), ECB's Lane (16:10 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY selloff · RSI 32 · price 1.1154
Asian range broken lower; lower highs, small higher low near 1.1140.
London stalled at 1.1206 (london high), below the 1.1214 Asian high. NY then broke the Asian low at 1.1176 as soft German HICP and renewed USD demand weighed, sliding to a 1.1136 session low. Price is holding a higher low at 1.1140 with RSI(14) near 32 and is capped by the 1.1159 bounce high, near the fib 23.6% of the London-NY drop.
Support: 1.1140, 1.1136, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.1159, 1.1176, 1.1206
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1159 bounce high opens a retest of the 1.1176 asian low and the lower-highs trendline
Break of the 1.1140 higher low and the 1.1136 session low brings the 1.1105 17-month low into view
Fed's Daly (16:00Z), ECB's Lane (16:10Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) could materially shift this read within the hour
Reclaim of the 1.1176 asian low invalidates the range-break read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 35 · price 1.11532
Asian range broken lower; higher low at 1.1140 under 1.1159.
The midday selloff from 1.1206 cut through the 1.1171 Asian low into the NY session, reaching a 1.1136 session low as the USD caught a haven bid on tech-led risk-off. A 1.1140 higher low has formed since, and price sits at the 23.6% retracement of the selloff, just under the 1.1159 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.1140, 1.1136, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.1159, 1.1171, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1159 bounce high turns 1.1136/1.1140 into a double bottom and opens the 1.1171 Asian low (50% of the selloff)
Failure to hold the 1.1136 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1105 17-month low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC), ECB's Lane (16:10 UTC) and Fed's Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read within the hour
Only a recovery through the 1.1200 round number would undo the selloff structure
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY flush · RSI 29 · price 1.11553
Asian and London range broken lower in NY; lower highs, price consolidating under 1.1160.
A London high at 1.1206 capped the range after the EZ GDP beat. A USD haven bid on tech risk-off then drove NY through the 1.1176 Asian low to a 1.1136 NY low. The bounce stalled at 1.1159, with price now retesting yesterday's 1.1156 low from below. RSI(14) has recovered to about 29 from deeper readings during the drop.
Support: 1.11361, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.11593, 1.11758, 1.12056
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1159 bounce high and the 38.2% fib at 1.1163 would point to a deeper retrace toward the 1.1176 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.1136 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1105 17-month low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC), ECB's Lane (16:10 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) all fall inside the next 90 minutes and could reset this read
Reclaim of the 1.1206 london high would void the downtrend read
Lower highs from 1.1206, Asian range broken lower, retest of prior low.
The NY session selloff broke the Asian low at 1.1176 and yesterday's prior low near 1.1156, setting a session low at 1.1136 as the USD rebounded on tech-led risk-off. The bounce stalled at 1.1159, about a third of the way up the selloff fib, which is a retest of the broken prior low from below. RSI(14) has recovered to 33 from oversold.
Support: 1.1140, 1.1136, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.1159, 1.1167, 1.1176
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1159 prior low and the 1.1167 lower high would point to a deeper retracement toward the 1.1176 asian low
Failure to hold the 1.1140 higher low and the 1.1136 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1105 17m low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC), ECB's Lane (16:10 UTC) and Fed's Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1206 and a break below the Asian low; basing above the 1.1136 session low.
London's push to 1.1206 stalled. The soft German CPI then drove a ~70-pip selloff through the London-NY transition, taking price back under the 1.1200 round number, through the Asian low at 1.1176 and yesterday's prior lows near 1.1158, to a session low at 1.1136. Price is now basing near 1.1149 with RSI(14) around 25 and ATR(14) near 8 pips.
Support: 1.11361, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.11581, 1.11758, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the prior lows at 1.1158 would mark 1.1136 as a short-term session low floor
Failure to hold the 1.1136 session low exposes the 1.1105 17m low
A retrace into the Asian low at 1.1176, near the 61.8% fib of the selloff (~1.1179), would retest the breakdown
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC), ECB's Lane (16:10 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive NY-session leg · RSI 17 · price 1.11451
London range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since 12:00 UTC.
EUR/USD broke below the London range (1.1188–1.1206) after the soft German CPI and extended the slide through the NY open. It cut through the Asian low at 1.1176 and yesterday's prior low at 1.1142 before printing a session low at 1.1136, a roughly 70-pip drop from the 1.1206 London high along a clean line of descending highs. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold, and price is basing just above the prior low with the 1.1156 breakdown bar as first resistance.
Support: 1.11418, 1.11361, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.11558, 1.11758
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1156 breakdown and the descending highs line would mark the first break in the NY sell-off structure
A recovery to the 1.1176 Asian low lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 1.1206–1.1136 leg and would test the breakdown area
Failure to hold the 1.1136 session low leaves the 1.1105 17m low as the next reference
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC), ECB's Lane (16:10 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London range broken lower, lower highs and lower lows into early NY.
The soft German CPI miss broke London's 1.1190–1.1206 range from 12:00 UTC. The sell-off cut through the Asian low at 1.1171 and is pressing into early NY with an unbroken chain of lower highs. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold, and yesterday's prior low at 1.1135 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.11347, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.1155, 1.11712, 1.12056
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1155 breakdown shelf would be the first sign the sell-off is stalling
Reclaim of the Asian low at 1.1171 breaks the lower highs chain; the London high at 1.1206 caps above
Failure to hold the 1.1135 prior low exposes the 1.1105 17m low
Chicago PMI now, then Daly 16:00, Lane 16:10 and Musalem 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs 1.1214→1.1206, Asian range low broken.
The in-line ECI at 12:30 UTC triggered a USD claw-back: price broke the 1.1190 breakdown level, then the Asian low at 1.1176, and slid to a session low near 1.1151 early in the NY session. The move extends the lower-high sequence from the 1.1214 Asia peak to the 1.1206 London high. Soft German CPI keeps EUR heavy, and RSI(14) near 16 is stretched with the prior low at 1.1148 just below.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1127
Resistance: 1.1176, 1.1190, 1.1206
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1176 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the prior low at 1.1148 exposes the yday low at 1.1127
Reclaim of the 1.1190 breakdown level and the london high at 1.1206 negates the lower-highs read
Chicago PMI now, Fed's Daly 16:00 UTC, ECB's Lane 16:10 UTC and Fed's Musalem 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.1206 London high; Asian range low broken.
NY session broke the Asian low at 1.1171 after the 12:30 UTC ECI print as USD clawed back losses, extending descending highs from the 1.1206 London high. Price is pressing the 1.1162 session low with RSI(14) near 30 and both EMAs well overhead.
Support: 1.11615, 1.1157, 1.1119
Resistance: 1.1171, 1.1189, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Hold of the prior low at 1.1157 from yesterday's NY session; failure exposes the 1.1119 window low
An M15 close back above the 1.1171 Asian low would mark a false break of the range
Retracement into the fib 61.8 at 1.1189 tests the descending highs; the 1.1200 round number caps above
Chicago PMI now, plus Daly 16:00, Lane 16:10 and Musalem 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp leg lower · RSI 23 · price 1.1164
Lower high at 1.1206 under the 1.1214 Asia peak, then a range break below the 1.1176 morning low.
London's high at 1.1206 capped below the 1.1214 Asia peak, setting a lower high. Selling from 12:30 UTC broke the 1.1176 morning low and pushed price back under the 1.1200 psych handle, despite the softer-USD backdrop. Price now sits on yesterday's NY range low near 1.1158, with RSI(14) near 23 into the HICP window and ATR(14) at about 6.6 pips.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1119
Resistance: 1.1176, 1.1200, 1.1206
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 1.1176 morning low would turn the break into a false break
A sustained hold below the 1.1158 NY range low exposes the 1.1119 24h low
A return above the 1.1200 psych level and the lower-high trendline negates the intraday downtrend read
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Lane at 16:10 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 30 · price 1.11743
Asian range low broken at NY open, trading just under it.
London stalled under the 1.1206 London high and carved lower highs, failing to hold above 1.1200 despite the GDP beat. Selling into the first hour of NY then broke the 1.1176 Asian low from the 1.1188 breakdown point and printed a 1.1171 session low, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.11707, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11758, 1.1188, 1.12056
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1176 Asian low turns the break into a false break. The 1.1188 breakdown point sits at the 50% retracement of the London drop.
Failure to hold the 1.1171 session low exposes the 1.1160 prior pivot shelf from yesterday's NY session.
Only a recovery above the 1.1206 London high would repair the lower-high sequence.
The 13:00 UTC HICP, the 13:45 UTC Chicago PMI and Fed/ECB speakers from 16:00 UTC (Daly, Lane, Musalem) could materially shift this read.
13:01 UTC
Intraday down leg, momentum heavy · RSI 31 · price 1.11753
Lower highs from London high, broke below 1.1190 shelf.
London's push to the 1.1206 london high stalled into lower highs. The 12:30 UTC ECI release then triggered a 13-pip drop through the 1.1190 breakdown shelf. Price is now testing the 1.1175 london low with the full London leg retraced, RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
13:00 UTC Eurozone HICP and 13:45 UTC Chicago PMI could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1175 london low exposes yesterday's 1.1160 range low
Reclaim of the 1.1190 breakdown level negates the range break and puts the 1.1206 london high back in focus
1.1214 asia high capped the session; no recovery read while below it
12:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London high · RSI 43 · price 1.11888
Lower-high chain from 1.1206, testing London low inside the Asian range.
The 10:00 UTC GDP and Italy CPI beats lifted EUR to a London high at 1.1206, short of the 1.1214 asian high. Since then a chain of lower highs along the descending trendline has pulled price back to the 1.1187 london low, which sits on the 61.8% of the London leg fib. RSI(14) is at 43 with price below both EMAs during the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1176
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1187 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1176 asian low
M15 close above the 1.1198 lower high breaks the descending trendline and returns focus to the 1.1206 london high
ECI reaction (12:30 UTC), Eurozone HICP at 13:00 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
London inside the Asian range; lower highs off the London high.
The Asian session set a 1.1176–1.1214 range, and London has stayed inside it. The Q3 GDP beat lifted price to a 1.1206 London high, but it failed under the 1.1200 round number with lower highs into the start of NY hours. Price is holding the 38.2–50% fib of the asian low–london high leg near 1.1190, between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI flat at 50 ahead of the US and Eurozone data.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
US ECI (12:30 UTC) and Eurozone HICP (13:00 UTC) land within the next two bars; either print can break the London range
Close below the 1.1187 london low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.1176 asian low
Close above the 1.1206 london high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1214 asian high, the area of the earlier 1.1215 rejection, next
Holding under the 1.1200 round number keeps the lower-highs line intact
Higher lows from 1.1176, capped under 1.1206, compressing.
London lifted EURUSD from the 1.1176 swing low to a 1.1206 session high after the Eurozone GDP beat, but price never challenged the 1.1214 Asian high where it was rejected overnight. The pullback is holding the 1.1191 higher low near the 50% fib of the London leg and the rising lows line, with RSI(14) neutral at 45 and ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 1.11906, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Eurozone HICP at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read within the hour
M15 close below the 1.1191 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1176 swing low
M15 close above the 1.1206 session high puts the 1.1214 asian high back in play
London trading inside the Asian range; higher lows against lower highs.
After the Asia-session rejection at the 1.1214 asian high, London has held inside the Asian range. The EZ GDP and Italy CPI beats lifted price only to a 1.1206 london high. Higher lows from the 1.1176 asian low and lower highs off 1.1206 are squeezing price near 1.1194, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.11906, 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and the EZ CPI/HICP flash at 13:00 UTC land within the hour and could break the compression either way
An M15 close above the 1.1206 london high opens a retest of the 1.1214 asian high
A close below the 1.1191 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.1187 morning low, then the 1.1176 asian low
London range 1.1187–1.1206 nested inside Asian range.
Mid-London, price is coiling inside the Asian range of 1.1176–1.1214. Higher lows run from the 1.1176 asian low to the 1.1191 higher low, while the 1.1206 london high has capped. The 10:00 UTC EZ GDP beat lifted price only to 1.1206 before it faded back to the 1.1190s. RSI(14) sits neutral at 51.
Support: 1.11906, 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and EZ HICP flash at 13:00 UTC (f/c 3.1% y/y) are likely to resolve the compression
M15 close above the 1.1206 london high exposes the 1.1214 asian high
Break below the 1.1187 london low ends the higher-low chain and puts the 1.1176 asian low back in focus
Loss of the rising trendline from the asian low signals the coil resolving lower
11:32 UTC
Intraday range, fading off London high · RSI 45 · price 1.11919
London higher lows inside Asian range 1.1176–1.1214.
Late London: the London leg off the 06:45 UTC asian low ran on the 10:00 UTC Eurozone GDP and Italian CPI beats but stalled at the 1.1206 session high, short of the 1.1214 asian high. Price has since slipped below the ema20 and is sitting on the 50% retrace near 1.1191 and the ema50. The London higher-low chain stays intact while the 1.1187 london low holds.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1176
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1187 london low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1176 asian low
M15 close above the 1.1206 session high reopens the 1.1214 asian high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German CPI at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Higher lows since London open, momentum flattening · RSI 58 · price 1.11987
Rising lows inside the Asian range, capped below the 1.1214 high.
London has stepped up from the 1.1176 Asian low through higher lows at the 1.1187 London low and the 1.1196 swing low. The 1.1206 session high is stalling near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian range drop, below the 1.1214 Asian high. The 10:00 UTC Eurozone GDP and Italian CPI beats added only a mild lift, and RSI(14) at 58 is mid-range.
Support: 1.11964, 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1196 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1187 London low
Close above the 1.1206 session high and the 1.1214 Asian high clears the Asian range top
Loss of the 1.1176 Asian low would turn the session structure into lower lows
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German CPI at 13:00 UTC both land within two hours and could materially shift this read
London higher lows inside the Asian range, capped below the 1.1214 Asian high.
London has stepped higher off the 1.1176 Asian low on a chain of higher lows along rising support. The EZ GDP beat at 10:00 UTC produced only a 1.1206 London high before stalling, so price is still inside the Asian range and below the 1.1214 Asian high. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is about 6 pips, which reads as compression ahead of US ECI and German CPI.
Support: 1.11918, 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1214 Asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside; the digest flags 1.1215 as a level the market is tracking
Loss of the 1.1192 higher low and the rising support line would break the London structure and expose the 1.1187 swing low
A break below the 1.1176 Asian low would erase the London advance
The US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German CPI at 13:00 UTC are likely to resolve the current compression; Lane speaks at 16:10 UTC
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 60 · price 1.12008
HL chain from 1.1176 London low, capped below Asian high.
London has built higher lows from the 1.1176 london low through the 1.1187 swing low, and the EZ GDP beat at 10:00 UTC lifted price to a 1.1206 session high before a wick rejection. Price is holding around 1.1200, still below the 1.1214 asian high, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1214 asian high breaks the overnight cap and extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1187 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and the rising support line
A drop below the 1.1176 london low would invalidate the London uptrend read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German prelim HICP at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 64 · price 1.12029
Higher-low chain from 1.1176 pressing session high, below overnight Asia high.
London has built higher lows off the 1.1176 swing low. The EZ GDP beat at 10:00 UTC extended the London leg to a 1.1204 session high. The overnight Asia high at 1.1214 caps the 24h range, and RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1214 asia high breaks the overnight range top
Loss of the 1.1187 london hl breaks the higher-low chain, with the 1.1176 swing low next below
Rejection at the 1.1204 session high keeps price inside the 1.1176–1.1214 range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German HICP at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.12033
London HH/HL chain inside overnight range.
London has climbed off the 1.1176 asian low in a higher-high/higher-low sequence along a rising trendline. It absorbed the brief dip to the 1.1187 gdp low on the German GDP beat and printed a session high at 1.1204, retracing ~71% of the Asian drop. Price sits ~10 pips under the 1.1214 asian high, with RSI(14) at 66 and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 1.11918, 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1214 asian high breaks the overnight range top
Loss of the 1.1192 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the London HH/HL chain, exposing the 1.1187 gdp low
Failure to hold the 1.1176 asian low unwinds the entire London leg
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German flash HICP at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Higher lows since London open, capped near 1.1200 · RSI 61 · price 1.11986
Inside Asian range 1.1176–1.1214; rising lows pressing flat 1.1200–1.1203 cap.
London has traded inside the Asian range (1.1176–1.1214), printing higher lows off the 1.1176 Asian low while the 1.1200–1.1203 London high has capped twice. Price now sits at that cap, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the Asian slide. The dip after the German GDP beat found demand at 1.1187. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 london high opens the asian high at 1.1214
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1187 post-gdp low returns focus to the 1.1176 asian low
Euro-area data at 10:00 GMT, US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German flash HICP at 13:00 GMT could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Asia spike · RSI 56 · price 1.1196
Lower highs from 1.1214 vs higher lows from 1.1176, contracting range.
EURUSD is compressing below the 1.1214 Asia high, with lower highs at 1.1203 and the 1.1201 London high against higher lows at the 1.1176 session low and the 1.1187 gdp low. The dip after the German GDP beat at 09:00 GMT was absorbed, and price sits mid-range near 1.1196 with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1176
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1214 asia high back in play
Loss of the 1.1187 gdp low exposes the 1.1176 session low and voids the higher-lows read
Euro-area GDP/CPI at 10:00 GMT, US ECI at 12:30 and German flash CPI at 13:00 GMT could break the compression
09:31 UTC
Sideways, lower high under Asia high · RSI 55 · price 1.11938
Range 1.1176–1.1214, London capped at 1.1201.
Mid-London, price sits inside the Asian range. The 1.1214 Asia high faded to a 1.1176 swing low before London open, and the London rebound stalled at 1.1201 near the 61.8% retrace, leaving a lower high. The 09:00 UTC dip to the 1.1187 London low was absorbed, RSI(14) is neutral near 55, and USD's recovery from its Asian dip is capping EUR.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1214 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1187 london low exposes the 1.1176 swing low
Eurozone flash GDP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 0.2% QoQ) could break the range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the main USD-side risk to the read
09:16 UTC
Sideways, contracting inside the Asian range · RSI 55 · price 1.11924
Lower highs from 1.1214 against higher lows from 1.1176; range compressing.
Early London is still inside the Asian range of 1.1176–1.1214. Price failed at the Asian high as the USD rebound capped EUR, then set a lower London high at 1.1201. Buyers absorbed the 09:00 UTC dip at 1.1187, printing a higher low, so the range is coiling either side of 1.1190.
Support: 1.11873, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1187 higher low exposes the Asian low at 1.1176; losing that breaks the range lower
Close above the 1.1201 London high reopens the 1.1214 Asian high
Eurozone flash GDP at 10:00 UTC could break the compression
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the larger USD risk for the NY session
London false break below Asian low, higher low, capped under 1.1201.
Early London dipped through the Asian low at 1.1180 to a london low of 1.1176, then reclaimed it and printed a higher low, but supply capped the bounce at the 1.1201 london high, well short of the 1.1214 asian high set as USD softened overnight. Price sits mid-range near 1.1194 with RSI(14) around 56, and the German Q3 GDP release lands on the current bar.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12143
What it said to watch
German Q3 GDP (09:00 UTC) and EZ GDP (10:00 UTC): a contraction echoing France's could pull price back toward the 1.1180 asian low
An M15 close above the 1.1201 london high reopens the 1.1214 asian high
A break of the london hl line and the 1.1176 london low negates the false break read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the NY session read
London leg capped below the Asian high, still inside the Asian range.
EUR has held the post-ECB rebound from 1.1104 and is ranging inside an Asian range of 1.1176–1.1214. The London leg from the 1.1176 swing low printed a higher low at 1.1183, then met rejection at the 1.1201 London high just under the round number. Price sits near the 23.6% retracement of that leg, with German data due within minutes.
Support: 1.11825, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12143
What it said to watch
German unemployment 08:55 and German GDP 09:00 UTC (f/c 0.1% q/q) could break the range either way; a negative print would echo France's -0.1%
M15 close above the 1.1201 London high reopens the 1.1214 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1183 higher low exposes the 1.1176 swing low and the bottom of the Asian range
EZ flash GDP and CPI at 10:00 and US ECI at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled range-break risks
Inside Asian range, testing 1.1200 round number from below.
London has built higher lows off the 1.1176 session low into a retest of the 1.1200 round number, still inside the Asian range capped by the 1.1214 Asian high and holding the rebound off yesterday's post-ECB low near 1.1104. Price sits near the 61.8% of the Asian high–session low fib, RSI(14) around 61 with no stretch and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.11825, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12143
What it said to watch
German GDP at 09:00 UTC and EZ flash GDP/CPI at 10:00 UTC; a contraction echoing France's -0.1% could stall the 1.1200 retest
M15 close above 1.1200 and the Asian high at 1.1214 would break the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the london hl at 1.1183 breaks the higher-low trendline; below the 1.1176 session low the London recovery fails
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
08:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 59 · price 1.11953
Higher lows off 1.1176 sweep, capped at 1.1200 inside Asian range.
Asia retook 1.1200 to a session high at 1.1214 before fading. The early -0.1% GDP miss then swept below the Asian low to 1.1176, but London reversed it into a higher-low chain. Price is now stalling at the 1.1200 round number, the 61.8% fib of the asia high to gdp low drop, with ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.11825, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12143, 1.1225
What it said to watch
09:00 UTC Q3 GDP (f/c 0.1% QoQ) due in under an hour could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1214 asia high, then the 1.1225 prior cap flagged as resistance
Failure to hold the 1.1183 higher low breaks the London rising support line and puts the 1.1176 gdp low back in play
Lower highs from the Asian high, higher lows from the 06:45 UTC low; contracting range.
Asia briefly retook 1.1200 for a 1.1214 Asian high before fading. The 06:30 UTC early GDP miss knocked price to a 1.1176 session low, which was bought back into London open. Lower highs from 1.1214 and higher lows from 1.1176 are now compressing price near 1.1190, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 1.11825, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.12025, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.1214 Asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1183 higher low reopens the 1.1176 session low
09:00 UTC Q3 GDP (f/c 0.1% QoQ) and HICP could materially shift this read; US ECI follows at 12:30 UTC
07:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend from Asia high, early London · RSI 44 · price 1.11853
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1214 Asia high.
Asia retook 1.1200 to a 1.1214 asia high before fading into lower highs. The early national GDP miss (-0.1% QoQ) at 06:30 UTC set a 1.1176 session low. The London open bounce stalled at the 1.1190 london high, near the 38.2% retrace, leaving price pinned between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.11758, 1.11712
Resistance: 1.11899, 1.12025, 1.12143
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1176 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1171 rollover low
M15 close above the 1.1190 london high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 1.1203 lower high
HICP at 08:00 UTC and Q3 GDP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 0.1% QoQ) could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, lower highs intact · RSI 52 · price 1.11887
Lower-high/lower-low sequence since 1.1214, bounce off 1.1176 testing 1.1190 cap.
After extending the post-ECB rebound to a 1.1214 Asian high, EUR/USD printed a chain of lower highs down to a 1.1176 session low at 06:45 UTC. Price has since bounced into the 1.1190 lower-high cap, which lines up with the lower-high trendline and the 38.2% of the Asian high-low retrace, ahead of London open with EUR data due inside the hour.
Support: 1.1180, 1.11758
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.12025, 1.12143
What it said to watch
Euro-area CPI at 07:45 UTC and HICP/GDP estimate at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read; high-impact GDP follows at 09:00 UTC
An M15 close above 1.1190 and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence and puts the 1.1203 swing high and the 1.1214 Asian high back in focus
A move back below the 1.1180 swing low exposes the 1.1176 session low; losing that extends the lower-low chain
07:16 UTC
Post-ECB rebound stalling, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.11844
Lower highs under falling trendline; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
The post-ECB rebound from 1.1104 topped at the 1.1214 Asian high and has bled lower since, with lower highs under a falling trendline and RSI(14) near 42. A pre-London dip to the 1.1176 swing low briefly broke the Asian range low but was reclaimed at London open, and price is now pressing the trendline near 1.1185–1.1190 below EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.11758, 1.11722
Resistance: 1.11898, 1.12025, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline and 1.1190 breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1203 lower high is the next cap before the 1.1214 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1176 swing low opens the 38.2% fib of the rebound at 1.1172
Euro-area CPI 07:45 UTC, HICP and GDP estimate 08:00, and GDP 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1214 Asian high, Asian low broken.
After the rejection at the 1.1214 Asian high, price has printed lower highs into London open and slipped through the Asian low to a 1.1176 session low. RSI(14) is near 39. The rebound from Thursday's 1.1104 post-ECB/PCE low, helped by a softer USD, stays intact above the 38.2% fib at 1.1172, which aligns with the rollover lows.
Support: 1.11758, 1.11722, 1.1159
Resistance: 1.11898, 1.1200, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 1.1172 exposes the 1.1159 ny base, where the 50% retracement also sits
Close above the 1.1190 lower high breaks the descending line from the Asian high
1.1200 round number capped the Asia retest; reclaiming it would put the 1.1214 Asian high back in play
EU CPI at 07:45 UTC, then HICP/GDP at 08:00 and 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia session high, testing Asian low.
Asia session spiked to a 1.1214 session high, then rejected below the 1.1200 psych level and 1.1200–1.1225 resistance. A lower-high sequence along the descending trendline has pulled price back to the 1.1179 Asian low into London open, with RSI(14) at 34. Price sits about 30% into the rebound fib from yesterday's 1.1104 post-US-data low; the 38.2% sits near the 1.1171 gap low.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1171
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1171 gap low and 38.2% rebound fib
Close above the 1.1190 lower high breaks the descending trendline; 1.1200 psych then 1.1214 session high above
Euro-area HICP 08:00 and flash GDP 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US ECI 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk for the range
06:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back off the Asian high · RSI 51 · price 1.11876
The rebound from yesterday's 1.1104 low near the ECB decision ran 110 pips as USD softened, extending to an Asian high at 1.1214 before rejection. Price has since printed lower highs back to the 23.6% rebound fib near 1.1188, with the asian low at 1.1180 holding into the final half hour before London open.
Support: 1.11803, 1.11722
Resistance: 1.11927, 1.1200, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1180 asian low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1172
Recovery through the 1.1193 lower high and the 1.1200 round number puts the 1.1214 asian high back in play
EU CPI/HICP (07:45–08:00 UTC) and flash GDP (09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US ECI at 12:30 UTC follows
06:16 UTC
Down-drift off Asia high, flattening · RSI 46 · price 1.11843
Lower highs from 1.1214, basing at 1.1180 asia low.
Asia's run to the 1.1214 asia high was rejected below the 1.1200–1.1225 cap flagged after the hawkish ECB hold. Price has since faded on a chain of lower highs, giving back about 86% of the Asia rally. It is now flat in a 5-pip band just above the 1.1180 asia low ahead of London open, sitting on EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral at 46. The 05:30 UTC GDP release produced no visible reaction.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1171
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1180 asia low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1171 rollover low
Recovery through the 1.1193 breakdown level, the 61.8% of the Asia rally, negates the fade; above that, the 1.1200 round number and 1.1214 asia high come back into view
CPI/HICP prints at 07:45–08:00 UTC and Eurozone Q3 GDP at 09:00 UTC land into the London open and could break the 1.1180–1.1193 band
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side test after the 3-day dollar pullback
Lower highs since 1.1214 Asia high, testing Asian low.
The post-US-data rebound from yesterday's 1.1104 low carried into Asia, clearing the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1214 session high as USD softened. The move did not hold. Lower highs since have pulled price back through the 1.1193 prior base to 1.1185, just above the 1.1179 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.11795, 1.11722
Resistance: 1.11925, 1.1200, 1.12143
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1179 Asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 38.2 fib of the post-data rally at 1.1172
Recovery above the 1.1193 prior base and the lower-highs trendline negates the pullback read, putting the 1.1200 round number and 1.1214 session high back in play
Eurozone national CPI/HICP and Q3 GDP prints 07:45–09:00 UTC during London could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD test
05:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 31 · price 1.11831
Lower-high chain from 1.1214 pressing the Asian low.
The rebound from the 1.1104 post-ECB low, helped by a softer dollar, topped at the 1.1214 Asian high near the 1.1200–1.1225 cap. Since then a chain of lower highs under a descending trendline has pulled price back to the 1.1180 Asian low ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1172, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1180 Asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1172 and the NY base near 1.1161.
A recovery above the 1.1193 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the Asian pullback, with 1.1200 psych and the 1.1214 Asian high above.
Eurozone CPI/HICP (07:45–08:00 UTC) and Q3 GDP (09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, as could US ECI at 12:30 UTC.
05:31 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asia high, lower highs · RSI 35 · price 1.1183
LH/LL sequence since 1.1214 Asia high, testing overnight swing low.
Rebound from yesterday's 1.1104 low on hawkish ECB guidance and a softer USD peaked at the 1.1214 Asia high, and supply capped it there. Since then, lower highs at 1.1203 and 1.1191 have pulled price back to the 1.1179 swing low, below the 23.6% fib, ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 35 and price sits under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1172, 1.1159
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1203, 1.1214
What it said to watch
EZ GDP/CPI prints from 05:30 UTC into the 09:00 UTC flash GDP could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1179 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1172, then the fib 50 near 1.1159
M15 close above the 1.1191 lower high breaks the descending trendline; 1.1203 prior high next
Reclaim of the 1.1214 asia high would void the pullback read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk
05:16 UTC
Pullback after Asia rejection at 1.1214 · RSI 36 · price 1.11835
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1214 Asia high.
Asia retook 1.1200 on the softer USD, extending the post-ECB rally from 1.1104, but was rejected at the 1.1214 Asia high. A 1.1203 lower high followed, and price has drifted back to 1.1184 into late Asia. That leaves it just above the 1.1179 swing low, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1171
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 swing low exposes the 1.1171 rollover low, near the 38.2% of the post-ECB rally
Reclaim of the 1.1203 lower high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 1.1214 Asia high
National GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC and EZ flash Q3 GDP at 09:00 UTC could reset the read into London open
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk for the 1.11–1.12 structure
Lower highs from 1.1214 Asia high, lows edging down.
The rebound from the ECB-day low of 1.1104, helped by the softer USD tone, ran to a 1.1214 Asia high. That high was rejected and price is back below the 1.1200 round number. Late Asia is printing lower highs into the 1.1185 session low, which sits on the 23.6% retrace of the post-ECB rally, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1179
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1214 Asia high invalidates the lower-highs pullback read
Failure to hold the 1.1185 session low and 1.1179 asian low opens the 38.2% of the post-ECB rally near 1.1172
French GDP at 05:30 UTC, CPI prints from 07:45 and EZ flash GDP at 09:00 could materially shift this read into London
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk for this structure
Lower highs since 1.1214 Asian high, compressing above 1.1187.
The rebound from yesterday's 1.1104 low, driven by hawkish ECB guidance and a softer USD, carried EURUSD to a 1.1214 Asian high. Price then met rejection above 1.1200 and has printed lower highs back to the 23.6% fib near the 1.1187 swing low. RSI(14) sits near 37 with price under EMA20, and Asian-session ranges are tight at about 5–6 pips.
Support: 1.1187, 1.1179, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1202, 1.1214
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1187 swing low exposes the 1.1179 asian low, then the 38.2% fib at 1.1172
A close above the 1.1193 lower high, then the 1.1202 swing high, breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1214 asian high back in view
GDP at 05:30 UTC and EZ flash Q3 GDP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 0.1% q/q) could materially shift this read during London
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the next USD-side risk into the NY open
04:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling below Asia high · RSI 40 · price 1.11896
Lower high under 1.1214, price pinned near swing low.
The post-ECB rebound from the 1.1104 low carried into Asia on a softer USD and tagged an asian high of 1.1214, but that high was rejected. A lower high at 1.1203 followed, and late Asia has slipped back under the 1.1200 psych and EMA20, sitting on the 1.1188 swing low ahead of London open.
Support: 1.11875, 1.11793, 1.11722
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12025, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1188 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1179 asian low
Recovery of 1.1200 psych and a break of the 1.1203 lower high reopens the 1.1214 asian high
Eurozone CPI 07:45 and flash GDP 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; fib 38.2 at 1.1172 is the deeper reference
US ECI 12:30 UTC is the key NY session risk for this read
04:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 46 · price 1.11914
Lower high 1.12025 and lower low 1.11875 inside the Asian range.
The post-PCE reversal off 1.1104 extended in Asia on a softer USD to a 1.12143 Asia high, then saw rejection there and a lower high at 1.12025. The pullback found a swing low at 1.11875, right on the 23.6% level of the post-PCE rally fib. Price is idling at 1.1191 on the EMA20 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.11875, 1.11793
Resistance: 1.12025, 1.12143
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.11875 swing low exposes the 1.11793 Asia low
A close back above the 1.12025 lower high and the lower-high line reopens the 1.12143 Asia high
The 38.2% level of the post-PCE rally fib sits near 1.1172 if the Asia low gives way
EZ GDP and CPI from 05:30 UTC and the Q3 GDP flash at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US ECI is due at 12:30 UTC
Asian spike rejected; lower high at 1.1203, holding above 1.1188 swing low.
Asia extended the post-PCE rebound from 1.1104 to a 1.1214 Asian high on the softer USD, but the spike was rejected straight back below 1.1200 and left a lower high at 1.1203. Late in the Asia session, price is consolidating just above the 1.1188 swing low, inside the 61.8–78.6% zone of the Asian leg fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is about 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.11875, 1.11793, 1.11712
Resistance: 1.12025, 1.12143
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1188 swing low exposes the 1.1179 pivot low and the 1.1171 Asian low
Reclaim of the 1.1203 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1214 Asian high
EZ national GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC and the EZ Q3 GDP flash at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the main USD swing factor for the NY session
03:46 UTC
Uptrend off 1.1104, Asia pulling back · RSI 48 · price 1.11886
Asian spike rejected, lower high at 1.1203, shelf lost.
A soft USD carried EUR from the 1.1104 post-PCE low into Asia, where it spiked to the 1.1214 asian high before rejection. A lower high at 1.1203 and a slip under the 1.1193 shelf leave late-Asia price retesting the 1.1185 ny high near the 78.6% fib of the Asian leg. RSI(14) is neutral and ATR(14) is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1179, 1.1161
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1203, 1.1214
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1179 asian low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.1161 swing low
A recovery above the 1.1203 lower high and the trendline from 1.1214 puts the asian high back in play
Holding the 1.1185 ny high keeps the dip a retest inside the uptrend
EZ GDP and CPI releases from 05:30 UTC, then the 09:00 UTC EZ Q3 GDP flash, could materially shift this read ahead of London open; US ECI follows at 12:30 UTC
Higher lows since rollover; lower high at 1.1203 under the 1.1214 spike.
The Asia session extended the post-ECB rebound from yesterday's 1.1104 low to a 1.1214 session high as USD softness persisted. Price was rejected there and is now holding 1.1192–1.1203 on the 61.8% fib of the 1.1179–1.1214 leg, just above the Asia trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1179, 1.1171
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1214, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1171 asia low
M15 close above the 1.1203 lower high reopens the 1.1214 session high and the 1.1225 post-ECB cap
EZ GDP at 05:30 UTC, inflation at 07:45–08:00 UTC and flash GDP at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 1.1104; shallow pullback holding 61.8% fib.
Mid-Asia, EURUSD is extending the HH/HL chain off yesterday's 1.1104 low. The rally from the asian low at 1.1179 topped at the 1.1214 session high, and the pullback found support at the 61.8% fib near 1.1192. Price is now coiling between 1.1192 and the 1.1203 coil top as a softer USD keeps the post-ECB rebound intact.
Support: 1.11923, 1.11793
Resistance: 1.12025, 1.12143, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.1192 exposes the asian low at 1.1179 and breaks the HL sequence
Clearance of the 1.1214 session high opens the 1.1225 res zone
Eurozone GDP and inflation prints from 05:30 UTC (flash GDP 09:00 UTC) into London open could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.1104 low; tight 1.1192–1.1199 coil after rejection at the 1.1214 session high.
Asia extended the post-US-data rebound off 1.1104 on a softer USD, printing a 1.1214 session high before a rejection back to the 1.1192 pullback low. Price is now coiling at 1.1196, just under the 1.1200 psych level, with RSI(14) neutral near 57, ATR(14) about 6.6 pips and the rising higher-low line near 1.1190.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1179
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1214 session high exposes the 1.1225 resist zone
Failure to hold the 1.1192 pullback low and the higher-low line puts the 1.1179 swing low in focus
EZ GDP and inflation prints from 05:30 UTC, with flash GDP at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read ahead of London
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 58 · price 1.1196
HH/HL chain from 1.1104 low; pullback holding above prior NY high.
Asia extended the post-ECB rebound from yesterday's 1.1104 low, set after the US GDP beat, to an Asia high at 1.1214 as USD softened. That high was rejected and price is holding the 1.1192 pullback low, above the NY high at 1.1185, with the HH/HL chain intact while the 1.1179 swing low and rising support hold.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1185, 1.1179
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising support
M15 close above the 1.1214 Asia high puts 1.1225 resistance in play
EZ GDP at 05:30 UTC and HICP/flash GDP at 08:00–09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia rejection · RSI 56 · price 1.11965
Higher highs and higher lows from the 1.1104 low; pullback holding above rising support.
The post-ECB and US GDP flush to 1.1104 has reversed into a clean higher-low chain as the USD softened. Asia pushed through the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1214 session high, then a rejection sent price back to a 1.1192 pullback low. Price is now holding just under 1.1200, above rising support off the 1.1179 Asian low, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.11923, 1.11851, 1.11793
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12143, 1.1225
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1192 pullback low and the rising support exposes yesterday's prior high at 1.1185 and the 1.1179 Asian low.
A close back above the 1.1214 session high puts the 1.1225 key resist in play.
Eurozone GDP and inflation prints from 05:30 to 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a growth miss tests the higher-low structure.
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk for the bounce.
Higher lows from the 1.1104 flush; Asian high rejected, shallow pullback.
Higher lows have built since yesterday's NY-session flush to 1.1104 after the ECB hold and US data. The Asian session extended that rebound as the dollar eased, but sellers rejected the 1.1214 session high back to a 1.1192 pullback low. Price is now pressing the 1.1200 psych level, with RSI(14) near 57 and the dip holding above the 23.6% of the rebound fib.
Support: 1.11923, 1.11851, 1.11793
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12143, 1.1225
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1214 session high puts the 1.1225 key res in play
Loss of the 1.1192 pullback low and the 1.1185 prior high exposes the 1.1179 asian low and rising support
EZ national GDP/CPI from 05:30 UTC and EZ GDP at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the USD-side catalyst later in the day
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 1.11927
HH/HL chain off 1.1104; Asia rejected at 1.1214, testing 1.1189.
Asia session extended the post-ECB rebound from the 1.1104 low, clearing Thursday's NY high before a rejection at the 1.1214 session high just above the 1.1200 round number. Price has slipped back to the 50% of the Asia leg at 1.1193 and sits on the 1.1189 breakout area, hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) back to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1179, 1.1171
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1189 breakout and the 1.1179 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and the rising support, exposing the 1.1171 asia low
Close back above the 1.1214 session high puts the 1.1225 key res in play
EZ national GDP from 05:30 UTC, CPI 07:45-08:00 UTC and EZ GDP 09:00 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side event risk
Higher lows since 1.1104; Asia spike to 1.1214 faded back under round number.
The rebound from Thursday's 1.1104 low after Lagarde's December hike signal carried into Asia. A spike to the 1.1214 session high was rejected back below the 1.1200 round number, and price is now holding just above the 1.1192 prior high. The higher-low chain along the HL trendline is intact; RSI(14) has cooled to around 60.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1179, 1.1172
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1214 session high
Failure to hold the 1.1192 prior high exposes the 1.1179 asian low and the HL trendline
A break of the asian low brings the fib 38.2 at 1.1172 into view and breaks the higher-low sequence
National GDP at 05:30 UTC, CPI EU-norm at 07:45 UTC and EZ GDP at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read into London open
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling after breakout · RSI 69 · price 1.12056
Higher-low chain since NY, fresh session high.
Asia session is extending the rebound off the 1.1104 low that followed Lagarde's December-hike guidance. A higher-low chain since NY broke the 1.1192 prior high and the 1.12 round number to a 1.1214 session high. The last two bars are stalling just above 1.12 with RSI(14) easing to about 69.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11919, 1.11793
Resistance: 1.12143, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1192 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline near 1.1186 and the 1.1179 swing low would break the higher-low chain
A close above the 1.1214 session high opens 1.1225 range res
Euro-area GDP from 05:30Z (flash at 09:00Z) and US ECI at 12:30Z could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, extending into Asia · RSI 77 · price 1.12094
Higher-high/higher-low chain since the 1.1171 rollover low, prior high broken.
The rebound from Thursday's 1.1104 low, set on the ECB/US data swing, has extended through Asia. Price broke the 1.1192 prior high to a 1.1213 session high. The higher lows hold, with the latest swing low at 1.1179, and RSI(14) near 77 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11919, 1.11793
Resistance: 1.12125, 1.1225
What it said to watch
1.1225 resistance overhead is the first test for the rebound; rejection there caps the Asian leg
Slipping back below the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1192 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
A break of the 1.1179 swing low and the higher-lows trendline ends the HH/HL chain; the rebound fib 38.2% sits near 1.1171
Euro-area regional GDP from 05:30Z and the HIGH-impact flash GDP at 09:00Z could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.1200 · RSI 74 · price 1.11975
HH/HL chain from the 1.1104 low; early Asia printing fresh window highs above the NY high.
The post-ECB rebound from the 1.1104 low, driven by Lagarde's December-hike signal, has carried into early Asia. Price is at a fresh window high of 1.1198, just under the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 74. Higher lows at the 1.1171 rollover low and the 1.1179 swing low keep the micro uptrend intact, and the 1.1185 NY high is the first shelf below.
Support: 1.11851, 1.11793, 1.11712
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1225
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1200 round number would mark a short-term top in the uptrend
M15 close back below the 1.1185 NY high, then the 1.1179 swing low, breaks the higher-low chain on the rising support
Acceptance above 1.1200 opens the path to the 1.1225 range res
Euro-area regional GDP (05:30Z), German CPI and flash GDP (09:00Z) could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 66 · price 1.11909
Higher lows since rollover, price at 1.1192 high.
Early Asia session is retesting the 1.1192 session high after a higher low at 1.1179. The move extends Thursday's post-ECB rebound from the 1.1104 low on Lagarde's December-hike signal, with RSI(14) near 66 and the 1.1200 round number just overhead.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1171, 1.1158
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200, 1.1225
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1192 session high puts the 1.1200 round number and 1.1225 digest res in play
Close below the 1.1179 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.1171 rollover low
Loss of the 1.1158 ny base would retrace a large part of the 1.1104 rally
Euro-area flash GDP at 09:00Z (f/c 0.1% q/q) and regional GDP from 05:30Z could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.1104 low; early Asia holding near the session high.
The 13:15 UTC whipsaw printed the 1.1104 17-month low, then Lagarde's December-hike guidance drove a reversal, with a ny base near 1.1160 and higher lows since, including the asia low at 1.1171 after a small daily-open gap. Early Asia session: price sits just under the 1.1192 session high, the 1.1179 swing low held on the pullback and RSI(14) is near 62.
Support: 1.11793, 1.11712, 1.11605
Resistance: 1.11919, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1179 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1171 asia low exposes the 1.1160 ny base
Clearance of the 1.1192 session high puts the 1.1200 round number in play
Euro-area flash GDP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 0.1% q/q) and German inflation could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since the 1.1104 flush, now retesting the rising trendline.
EUR has carried a string of higher lows since the 1.1104 flush around Lagarde's press conference and the US GDP beat. The Asia session set a 1.1192 session high, then eased into the 1.1179 pullback low, where the ema20 and the rising trendline converge. RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 1.11793, 1.11712, 1.11605
Resistance: 1.11919, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1179 pullback low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1171 rollover low.
A break of the 1.1192 session high opens the 1.1200 round number.
The 38.2% fib of the ECB-day rally sits near 1.1158, just under the 1.1161 ny range low.
Euro-area regional GDP from 05:30Z and the 09:00Z flash GDP could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain off 1.1104 low; early-Asia pullback to prior NY high.
The rebound from the 1.1104 post-ECB/US-data low on Lagarde's December-hike signal pushed through the 1.1185 NY high to a 1.1192 session high in early Asia, holding a higher low at 1.1171 after the rollover. Price is now retesting the NY high zone with a 1.1181 swing low beneath. RSI(14) has cooled to about 56 and ATR is near 5 pips.
Support: 1.11812, 1.11712, 1.11584
Resistance: 1.11851, 1.11919, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1171 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the fib 38.2 near 1.1158
Holding the 1.1181 swing low and clearing the 1.1192 session high brings the 1.1200 round number into play
Failure to reclaim the 1.1185 NY high turns the retest into a rejection
Euro-area flash GDP at 09:00Z and German inflation Friday, with US ECI at 12:30Z, could materially shift this read