1.1104–1.1214 weekly range; higher low at 1.1136 after a double top near 1.1210.
Thursday's post-ECB flush to the 1.1104 week low reversed into a 1.1214 week high early Friday. A lower high near 1.1206 around the Eurozone GDP beat then formed a double top, and the 1.1176 neckline gave way during NY hours as the USD caught a bid on the tech sell-off, with the drop stalling at the 1.1136 fri low, roughly a 71% retrace of the ECB-to-Friday rally. Price has since built a higher low near 1.1150 and is pinned just under the ema20 (~1.1171), which lines up with the 38.2% retracement, while sitting on EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1171, 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 / 1.1172 shifts focus back to the 1.12 round number and the 1.1214 week high
Loss of the 1.1150 higher low and the 1.1136 fri low breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 1.1104 week low
Weekend gap risk into Monday's open, followed by Eurozone Retail Sales and HCOB PMIs (07:00–08:55 UTC)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.1136 after lower high 1.1206; mid-range.
After grinding lower from 1.1178 into Wednesday's London open, EUR/USD briefly broke under that low to the 1.1104 week low around Thursday's ECB hawkish hold and US GDP, then reversed into a Thursday–Friday rally to the 1.1214 week high on the softer, tech-led USD. Friday's London session printed a lower high at 1.1206, and the NY session gave back roughly 71% of the rally to 1.1136 as the dollar rebounded despite the Eurozone GDP beat and soft German HICP. Price now sits at 1.1167, just under EMA(20) near 1.1171 and on top of a flattening EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near 48 and holding above the 61.8% fib of the rally.
Support: 1.11463, 1.11361, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.11709, 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.1171 and then the 1.1206 lower high would restore the rally structure toward the week high at 1.1214
Failure of the 1.1136 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1104 week low (17-month low)
Repeated closes below the 61.8% fib at 1.1146 would shift the read to a full retracement of the rally
Mon Nov 2: EZ Retail Sales/PMIs (07:00–08:55 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tue Nov 3 US midterms add event risk to USD swings early next week
Lower high at 1.1206 after the week high; price testing fib 61.8 of the rally.
Price ground lower from 1.1183 between Monday and Wednesday. Around Thursday's ECB decision it broke below Wednesday's 1.1113 low to 1.1104, but the break failed, and the rally that followed ran through Asia to a 1.1214 week high. Friday's London session stalled at a lower high near 1.1206, then a USD rebound on the hawkish-Fed backdrop knocked price about 85 pips lower into the NY open; the drop held at the fib 61.8 of Thursday's rally around 1.1136, and price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1170 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) at about 41.
Support: 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close below the fib 61.8 at 1.1136 breaks the rally trendline and exposes the 1.1104 week low
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.1170 puts the 1.1206 lower high and 1.1214 week high back in play
Monday's EZ retail sales/PMIs and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.1206–1.1214 after rally from week low; sharp NY selloff retraced ~71% of the leg.
Thursday's NY-session flush to the 1.1104 week low reversed into a 110-pip rally. That rally peaked at the 1.1214 week high in Asia hours, then stalled at a 1.1206 lower high in London, forming a double top. The pattern gave way during NY hours as German HICP undershot and haven USD demand returned. Friday's drop to 1.1136 dipped below the fib 61.8 at 1.1146 before buyers stepped in, and price now sits under the EMA20 near 1.1172 with RSI(14) back near 47.
Support: 1.1146, 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the EMA20 near 1.1172 eases the reversal read. Reclaiming the 1.1206 lower high and the 1.1214 week high would negate the double top.
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 at 1.1146 and the 1.1136 friday low exposes the 1.1104 week low.
Monday's Eurozone PMIs and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read.
17:01 UTC
Rebound from ECB low reversed, pressure back below EMA(20) · RSI 39 · price 1.11625
Lower highs Mon–Thu, V-rebound to 1.1214, Friday lower high and 61.8% pullback.
Monday through Thursday printed a run of lower highs into Thursday's ECB low at 1.1104, before a V-shaped rebound through the NY session and Asia took out Monday's high to set the week high at 1.1214. The move above 1.1200 failed: a lower high at 1.1206 in London gave way to a 70-pip drop into the NY open as soft German HICP and risk-off USD demand hit, with Friday's low at 1.1136 holding the 61.8% retracement of the rally and forming a higher low above the ECB low. Price is back at the 50% fib near 1.1159, below EMA(20) at 1.1180 and just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.1159, 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.1180 and the 1.1206 lower high would neutralise Friday's rejection; the week high at 1.1214 is the next cap
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.1159 puts the Friday low at 1.1136 back in focus; a break of the higher-low line from the ECB low exposes 1.1104
Monday's Eurozone PMIs and US ISM Manufacturing, then Tuesday's US midterms, could materially shift this read after the weekend gap risk
Double top at 1.1206–1.1214, neckline 1.1176 broken in NY.
Monday's 1.1195 high gave way to a grind lower into Wednesday. The ECB-day spike to the 1.1104 week low then reversed into an Asia-session rally to the 1.1214 week high. A second stall at 1.1206 in London today completed a double top, and the NY-hours drop on soft German HICP and renewed USD haven demand broke the 1.1176 neckline and the rally line, tagging a 1.1136 session low beyond the 61.8% retrace. Price is now holding near the 50% retrace, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 44 after cycling off the 60s.
Support: 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1175, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1175 EMA(20) and 1.1165 EMA(50) would neutralise the double top read
Failure to hold the 1.1136 session low exposes the 1.1104 week low
Reclaiming the 1.1214 week high would restore the post-ECB rally structure
ECB's Lane at 16:10 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem in the next hour could materially shift this read into the weekly close
Thursday's ECB low at the 1.1104 week low led to a 110-pip rebound that peaked at the 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asian session. A second push to 1.1206 on the eurozone GDP beat stalled as a lower high, and the slide from the London-NY transition into the NY open broke the 1.1176 neckline as USD caught a bid on tech-led risk-off. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the rebound, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 30 after the two-bar drop.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1146, 1.1176, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1176 neckline negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 1.1125 pre-ecb low exposes the 1.1104 week low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC), ECB's Lane (16:10 UTC) and Fed's Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Recovery above the 61.8% fib at 1.1146 would mark the drop as a deep retracement rather than a full reversal
Monday ISM Manufacturing and Tuesday's US midterms are the next event risk
Lower high at 1.1206 under 1.1214 Friday high; small double top testing 1.1176 neckline.
EUR/USD printed the 1.1104 17-month low on Thursday's ECB pause, then reversed through NY and Asia to a 1.1214 Friday high. A lower high at 1.1206 in London and a 25-pip drop into the NY open, as USD firmed after the in-line ECI and soft German CPI weighed on EUR, have taken price back below EMA(20) at 1.1182 and onto the 1.1176 neckline of a small double top, breaking the rebound line from Thursday's low. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of that rally, just above EMA(50) near 1.1169, with RSI(14) at 47, down from 65–67 at the two peaks.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1159, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1176, 1.1182, 1.1214
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1176 neckline and ema20 at 1.1182 would negate the double-top read
Failure to hold ema50 near 1.1169 exposes the 50% fib at 1.1159; a break there brings the 1.1104 17-month low back into view
A close above the 1.1206 lower high and the 1.1214 friday high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.1220–1.1250 area
Chicago PMI (due now), Daly 16:00 UTC, Lane 16:10 UTC and Musalem 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend off Thursday's ECB low, stalling below the week high · RSI 60 · price 1.11927
Higher lows since 1.1104; Friday lower high at 1.1206 inside a 1.1176–1.1214 range.
EUR/USD ground lower from Monday into Thursday's ECB decision, printing the 1.1104 ECB low before reversing through Thursday's NY session as the hawkish hold and a softer post-FOMC dollar lifted the pair back toward the 1.1200 psych handle. Friday saw a rejection at the 1.1214 week high in Asia, then a lower high at 1.1206 in London, and price is now pressing the rising ECB-low trendline. The Friday low at 1.1176 sits on the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1104–1.1214 leg, and price holds above EMA(20) at 1.1184 with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.11841, 1.11758, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
HICP at 13:00 UTC and ECB's Lane at 16:10 UTC could materially shift this read; this morning's ECI produced only a muted H1 reaction
An H1 close below the 1.1176 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence off the ecb low and exposes the 50% retracement near 1.1159
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 1.1184 and the ECB-low trendline turns Friday's range into a deeper pullback
An H1 close above the 1.1214 week high negates Friday's lower high at 1.1206 and opens the 1.1220–1.1250 area
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) are USD-side risk to acceptance around the 1.1200 psych level
12:02 UTC
Uptrend since Thursday, momentum stalling below week high · RSI 59 · price 1.11938
Higher low at 1.1176 above EMA20; lower high at 1.1206 under the 1.1214 week high.
The Monday–Wednesday slide to 1.1113 reversed after a NY-session false break to 1.1104 on Thursday, with the soft post-FOMC dollar driving a 110-pip impulse to the 1.1214 week high in Asia today, where it met rejection. The early pullback held the 1.1176 Friday low just above the 38.2% fib and EMA20, and the euro-area GDP beat and hot Italian CPI lifted price into London, but only to a lower high at 1.1206. RSI(14) near 59 has eased from about 65 at the week high, and price is pivoting around Monday's 1.1195 high with higher lows still intact.
Support: 1.1184, 1.11758, 1.11605
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1214 week high clears the rejection and opens the path to the 1.1220–1.1250 area
Failure to hold the 1.1176 Friday low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 1.1160 Thursday base near the 50% fib
Sustained trade below EMA20 near 1.1184 would mark momentum fading within the impulse
US ECI (12:30 UTC) and euro-area HICP flash (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; ECB's Lane at 16:10 UTC follows
V-reversal from 1.1104, higher low at 1.1176 under a 1.1214 week high.
EUR/USD ground lower from Monday into Wednesday. Early NY on Thursday, after the US GDP print, it flushed to a 1.1104 week low, a false break of Wednesday's low. The reversal ran to a 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asian session. The pullback was absorbed at the ema20, forming a higher low at 1.1176 just above the 38.2% fib. Eurozone GDP and Italian CPI beats then lifted price back to the 1.1201 london high, with RSI(14) near 62 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1176, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1214
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German CPI at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.1214 week high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the path toward the 1.1220–1.1250 zone
Failure to hold the 1.1176 higher low breaks the recovery structure; the 38.2% fib at 1.1172 sits just below
A repeat rejection at the 1.1201 london high would set a lower high beneath the 1.1214 week high
Higher lows since Thursday's low, capped at 1.1214.
EUR/USD ground lower from Monday into Thursday. An early-NY flush to the 1.1104 week low undercut Wednesday's 1.1113 low, then reversed sharply as post-FOMC USD softness and falling yields took hold. The ~110-pip recovery peaked at the 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asia session, and a rejection pushed price back under the 1.1206 monday high. The pullback found the rising EMA(20) near 1.1180 with the 1.1176 fri low intact, RSI(14) has eased from 67 to 62, and price holds above both EMAs as this morning's German GDP beat keeps EUR steady.
Support: 1.11758, 1.11593, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1214 week high (and the 1.1206 monday high) clears the Friday rejection
Failure to hold the 1.1176 fri low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 50% fib at 1.1159
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and German flash HICP at 13:00 GMT could materially shift this read
A return to the 1.1104 week low would undo the Thursday false break
09:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend off Thursday low, stalling under week high · RSI 60 · price 1.11928
Higher lows since 1.1104 sweep; lower high at 1.1203 below 1.1215.
The week's dominant leg was a slide from Monday's 1.1216 to 1.1113 by Wednesday's London open. Around Thursday's ECB decision and US data, price swept to a 1.1104 week low and reversed, building a double bottom and a breakout through 1.1173 as the dollar softened. The Asia-session push met rejection at 1.1214, just under the 1.1215 week high, leaving a lower high at 1.1203. Today's dip held the 1.1176 session low near the 38.2% retracement, keeping the higher lows intact, with price back above the EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1176, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1215
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1215 week high clears the Monday/Friday cap and the rejection read
Break below the 1.1176 session low and the EMA(20) would breach the higher lows line and the 38.2% fib
Germany flash Q3 GDP at 09:00 UTC and EZ GDP at 10:00 UTC; a miss echoing France's contraction could pressure the lower high structure
US ECI at 12:30 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
Sustained trade back below 1.1173 would put the 1.1104 week low back in focus
08:02 UTC
Rebound from week low, stalling below week high · RSI 56 · price 1.11807
Higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 low; Friday lower highs off 1.1214.
Monday-to-Thursday was a steady grind from the 1.1216 week high to a 1.1104 week low in NY hours Thursday on the hot US data. A hawkish ECB hold and a softer dollar then reversed the move and carried price to 1.1214 in the Asia session, a rejection just shy of the week high. Since then London has printed lower highs, and the early -0.1% Q3 GDP miss has pulled price back onto EMA(20) at 1.1176, with RSI(14) easing from about 68 to 56.
Support: 1.11759, 1.11605, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.11898, 1.12159
What it said to watch
H1 close below EMA(20) at 1.1176 breaks the rebound support line and brings the 38.2% fib at 1.1172 and the Thursday base at 1.1160 into play
Failure to hold the 1.1160 Thursday base exposes the 1.1104 week low
Close above the 1.1190 lower high revives a test of the 1.1215 week high; acceptance above it ends the rejection read
09:00 UTC Q3 GDP (f/c 0.1% QoQ) and 12:30 UTC US ECI (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Mon–Wed lower highs, then false break and higher lows since Thursday; capped below week high.
EURUSD ground lower from Monday's 1.1217 week high to 1.1113 by Wednesday. Thursday's push to a 1.1104 week low after the US data failed, and the hawkish ECB hold plus a softer USD drove a ~110-pip reversal through NY into an Asia-session Friday high at 1.1214. That high stalled just under the week high and the 1.1200 round number. Price has eased to 1.1185, holding the Asia low and above EMA(20) near 1.1176 along a higher-lows line, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60 from the high-60s.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1161, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1217 week high clears the Friday high rejection and the 1.1200 round number cap
Break of the 1.1180 Asia low and EMA(20) exposes the Thursday base at 1.1161, near the 50% fib of the rebound
Loss of the higher-lows line shifts the read back toward a retest of the 1.1104 week low
Euro-area CPI/HICP and GDP (07:45–09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could reverse the USD slide behind the rebound
Mon–Thu lower highs broken; higher lows since Thursday's low.
EUR/USD ground lower from Monday's 1.1220 week high to a 1.1104 week low in the hour after Thursday's ECB hold and US GDP/PCE data. It then reversed through NY hours as the USD softened on US-Iran de-escalation headlines, breaking the week's downtrend line of lower highs. The rebound stalled at the 1.1214 Asia high and is now retesting Thursday's 1.1185 prior high near the 23.6% fib, with a rising EMA20 around 1.1175 beneath and RSI(14) easing to ~61 from near 70.
Support: 1.11851, 1.1175, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12143, 1.12195
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1214 Asia high exposes the 1.1220 week high and the 1.1225 resistance
Failure to hold the 1.1185 prior high and a break of EMA20 near 1.1175 (38.2% fib) would point to a deeper retracement of the Thursday–Friday recovery
A return below 1.1150 would reopen the 1.1104 week low
Euro-area GDP and inflation prints (07:45–09:00 UTC) and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
V-shaped recovery from Thursday low, stalling near 1.1200 · RSI 63 · price 1.11915
Higher lows since Thursday's false break of 1.1104; capped at 1.1214 asia high.
EURUSD bled from the 1.1222 monday high to 1.1113 by Wednesday's London session, then spiked to the 1.1104 thu low in the first hour of NY on the hot US GDP/PCE run. The move below Wednesday's low failed. The hawkish ECB hold and a softer USD drove a reclaim of EMA(20) and EMA(50), and a string of higher lows followed. Friday's Asia session pushed to the 1.1214 asia high, but price met rejection back under the 1.12 psych level. It now sits on the fib 23.6 retracement of the rebound (1.1188) with RSI(14) easing to ~63 from the mid-60s.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1174, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1222
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1188 fib 23.6 and the higher-low line breaks the rising sequence, exposing the ema20 near 1.1174
Close back above the 1.12 psych level and the 1.1214 asia high opens the 1.1222 monday high and SocGen's 1.1225
EZ flash Q3 GDP (09:00 UTC) and national CPI prints today could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC: a hot print risks a retest toward the 1.1104 thu low
04:02 UTC
Sharp rebound from week low, higher lows since Thursday · RSI 63 · price 1.11964
Mon–Thu lower highs broken; V-reversal off 1.1104 now stalling below 1.1214.
EUR/USD ground lower from the 1.1222 weekly open through Thursday's London session. Around Thursday's US GDP/PCE release it made a false break below Wednesday's 1.1113 low to a 1.1104 week low, then reversed hard through NY as the USD softened on the US-Iran headlines. The rebound has stacked higher lows into the Asia session and tagged the 1.1214 Asia high before a rejection. RSI(14) is near 63 and price sits about 25 pips above a rising EMA(20) at 1.1172, a level that lines up with the 38.2% of the rebound fib and Thursday's 1.1173 high.
Support: 1.11793, 1.11725, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.12143, 1.12215
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1214 Asia high puts the 1.1222 weekly open and 1.1225 resistance in play
Price is pressing the rally trendline near 1.1200; failure to hold the 1.1179 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes EMA(20) at 1.1172
A return below 1.1150 would put the 1.1104 week low back in focus
EZ Q3 GDP flash and national CPI (05:30–09:00 UTC) plus US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
V-shaped rebound off week low, stalling near Monday high · RSI 66 · price 1.11928
Week of lower highs broken; steep higher-low sequence since Thursday's low.
EUR/USD ground lower from the 1.1225 Monday high into Thursday's first NY hour. The US GDP beat and the ECB hold printed a 17-month low at 1.1104, a brief false break of Wednesday's 1.1113 low. Lagarde's December-hike signal and a softer USD then drove a ~110-pip reversal through NY and into the Asia session, holding a steep rebound line with price above EMA(20) and RSI(14) in the mid-60s. The Asia push to the 1.1214 asia high left a long upper wick just shy of the Monday high, and price is now drifting just above the 1.1179 asia low.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1170, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1225
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.1225 monday high breaks the week's range top and confirms the post-ECB recovery
Loss of the rebound line and the 1.1179 asia low exposes 1.1170, where EMA(20) aligns with the 38.2% rebound fib
Eurozone flash GDP and HICP (05:30–09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a growth miss reopens the 1.1104 week low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in the NY session can rebuild USD hike pricing
Double bottom breakout, higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 low.
EUR/USD ground lower in lower highs from Monday's 1.1226 week high, then made a false break of Wednesday's low to a 1.1104 week low on Thursday as the ECB met and US data printed. Lagarde's signal that a December hike is likely fuelled a rebound through the NY session that cleared the 1.1172 prior high, which had capped both the Fed spike and the post-data bounce, completing a double bottom. Price is pressing the 1.1200 round number and the 78.6% retracement of the week's decline in the Asia session, with RSI(14) at 66, price above EMA(20) near 1.1168 and the Asian low at 1.1179 the first shelf.
Support: 1.1179, 1.1172, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1226
What it said to watch
EZ GDP and national CPI prints from 05:30–09:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in NY hours are the USD-side risk
An H1 close above the 1.1226 week high breaks the week's lower-high sequence
A slip back below the 1.1172 prior high returns price to the Wed–Thu range and undercuts the double bottom
A break of the rebound line off Thursday's low would mark the first lower low of the bounce
Lower highs Mon–Thu, false break below Wednesday's low, then V-recovery and break of the lower-high trendline.
Monday-to-Thursday selling ran from the 1.1226 week high to 1.1104, a brief false break under Wednesday's 1.1113 low that reversed into Thursday's NY session on Lagarde's December-hike guidance. The rebound cleared the FOMC high at 1.1169 and the lower-high trendline, and is now holding just above the fib 61.8 retracement at 1.1180, with the 1.1173 flip level (Monday low, Thursday high) underneath. Supply is capping the Asia high at 1.1192, just under Monday's 1.1195 lower high, with RSI(14) in the low 60s and price above both EMAs.
Support: 1.11797, 1.11732, 1.11691
Resistance: 1.11919, 1.1195, 1.12263
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1195 lower high opens the path toward the 1.1226 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1173 flip level and the 1.1169 FOMC high puts the false-break reversal read in question
Euro-area flash GDP at 09:00Z and German inflation Friday could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in NY hours are the USD-side risk to the rebound
00:01 UTC
Week-long downtrend interrupted by a sharp Thursday reversal · RSI 68 · price 1.11914
EURUSD fell from the 1.1217 weekly open through the London and NY sessions Monday to Wednesday. It undercut Wednesday's 1.1113 low to a 17-month week low at 1.1104 on Thursday's US data, then reversed hard during NY hours as Lagarde flagged a likely December hike. Price has since reclaimed the 61.8% fib of the week range and both EMAs, and is pressing Monday's 1.1196 breakdown level with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1161, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1217, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1196 breakdown opens the 1.1217 weekly open and the 1.1226 week high
Failure to hold 1.1173 prior high puts the Thursday base at 1.1161 and the reversal trendline in focus
Loss of the 1.1161 base returns attention to the 1.1104 week low
Euro-area flash GDP 09:00Z and US ECI 12:30Z Friday could materially shift this read