Lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month rollover from 1.3568; 1.3202–1.3311 range broken lower.
GBPUSD keeps printing lower highs from the 1.3568 top, and the rejection at the 1.3311 swing high gave way to a range break below the 1.3203 prior low. That leg set a 3m low at 1.3181 as USD demand followed the claims beat and hot ISM prices, even after a UK GDP upgrade. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 33 pips shows the range has expanded on the breakdown.
Support: 1.3181, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3203, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 3m low at 1.3181 and the 1.3150 round number in play
H4 closes back above the 1.3203 prior low would mark the break below it as a false break
A recovery through the 1.3280 range cap, near the 61.8% fib, would challenge the lower highs trendline
Only a close above the 1.3311 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3568 top; 1.3203 base broken.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs from 1.3568 through the 1.3400 lower high and the 1.3311 swing high. The move above 1.33 on the UK GDP upgrade and soft PCE was fully retraced. The last bar broke the 1.3202-1.3204 double base and set a 1.3182 swing low as rising US yields and oil kept the dollar bid. EMA20 stays below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 33 pips is expanding off the late-September compression, consistent with the downtrend extending rather than basing.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3203, 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
H4 close back above the 1.3203 broken base would turn the break into a false break
Sustained trade below the 1.3182 swing low leaves the 1.3100 round number as the next reference
Recovery through the 50% fib near 1.3247 and the 1.3311 swing high would break the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Lower highs from 1.3568; 1.3193–1.3311 range below both EMAs.
The lower-high sequence from 1.3568 is intact, and September's slide has given way to a roughly 1.5-week 1.3193–1.3311 range, with price still below ema20 and ema50. A soft UK PMI and yield-driven USD demand pushed the pair through the 1.3204 range floor to a 1.3193 swing low, but that break reversed within the same bar. The earlier spike to the 1.3311 range cap stalled between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 1.3400–1.3193 fib and faded back inside the range.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3311, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3193 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and ends the range read
Recovery above ema20 near 1.3248 would reopen the 1.3311 range cap
H4 close above the 1.3311 range cap breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3387 lower high
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC today, with Fed speakers through 19:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Friday NFP is the next range-break catalyst; ATR near 31 pips shows the range is not compressed
Lower highs from 1.3568; 1.3202–1.3311 range with double bottom at 1.3202.
Cable has carved out lower highs since the 1.3568 early-September top. Since late September it has been basing in a 1.3202–1.3311 range, with a double btm at 1.3202 where the two-month low sits. The latest spike to the 1.3311 lower high failed near the 50% retracement of the 1.3400 swing high → 1.3204 leg and the descending trendline. Price faded back below EMA20 (~1.3249) and the prior high at 1.3280 despite the UK GDP beat, as firm US yields keep the dollar bid. ATR(14) near 27 pips is well below the mid-month expansion, so the range is compressing.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3202 double btm resumes the downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3221 minor lows puts the 1.3202 base under direct pressure
Close above the 1.3311 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high structure, exposing the 1.3400 swing high
Repeated rejection between the 1.3280 prior high and 1.3311 keeps the range intact
US jobless claims, ISM Mfg and BoE's Mann today, then Friday NFP, could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 51 · price 1.32579
Lower highs from 1.3568; double low at 1.3202 with failed rebound below 1.3311.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence intact since the mid-month break below 1.3450. Demand twice held the 1.3202 double low, but the rebound after the UK GDP beat and soft US PCE stalled at the 1.3311 swing high, just shy of the 38.2% fib. With US yields at 2004 highs, price is back under the 23.6% fib at 1.3272 and only holding the ema20 at 1.3253. ATR(14) near 25 pips is compressed versus the breakdown phase, so the 1.3202–1.3311 box is the near-term frame.
Support: 1.3253, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3272, 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3311 swing high would break the lower-high trendline and challenge the double-low read; 1.3400 lower high sits beyond
Failure to hold the 1.3202 double low would confirm a fresh lower low and resume the downtrend
Slip back below the ema20 at 1.3253 keeps the 23.6% fib at 1.3272 as a cap
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, plus BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3568; double bottom at 1.3204/1.3202 with neckline near 1.3280.
The slide from the 1.3568 early-September high printed a clean lower-high sequence into a double bottom at 1.3204/1.3202, the two-month low. Wednesday's UK GDP beat and the soft US PCE lifted price through the 1.3280 neckline to a 1.3311 swing high, near the 61.8% fib of the 1.3387–1.3202 leg and under the lower-high line, but the break failed below 1.3300 and price sits at 1.3262, above the ema20 and below EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to about 25 pips from the mid-September expansion, so the 1.3202–1.3311 box is tightening.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.3280 neckline and through the 1.3311 swing high would confirm the double bottom and clear the lower-high line, opening the path to the 1.3387 lower high
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3250 returns focus to the 1.3202 double bottom; a close below it resumes the lower-low sequence
BoE's Mann (Thu 12:00 UTC), then US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read