Lower highs/lower lows since mid-month range break; double bottom near 1.3202.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since breaking the 1.3480-1.3568 range mid-month, with the slide stopping at the 2-month low near 1.3202, where a double bottom is forming against the 1.3204 low. The bounce on the UK GDP beat and soft US PCE reached the 1.3311 swing high, close to the 61.8% fib of the 1.3387 lower high to 1.3202 leg, then faded back under the 1.3280 prior high, which sits near EMA50. Price holds above the ema20 around 1.3250, and ATR(14) near 27 pips points to a moderate, non-compressed regime.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3311 swing high would confirm the double bottom and print the first higher high since the range break
Repeated failure at the 1.3280 prior high / EMA50 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3250 exposes the 2-month low at 1.3202; a break there resumes the downtrend
Clearance of 1.3387 lower high would neutralise the multi-week downtrend read
BoE's Mann Thu 12:00 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 1.3200 · RSI 58 · price 1.32865
Lower highs from 1.3568; double low at 1.3202-1.3204 now testing its neckline.
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.3568 early-month top carried cable to 1.3202, where two tests at 1.3204 and 1.3202 formed a double low. Today's UK GDP beat lifted price through the lower-highs trendline and the 1.3280 neckline to the 1.3300 round number, near the 50% retracement of the 1.3387–1.3202 leg. EMA20 still sits below EMA50 and ATR(14) near 27 pips is contained, so the 1.3387 lower high remains the structural cap on the downtrend.
Support: 1.3280, 1.3245, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3336, 1.3387
What it said to watch
US PCE and final Q2 GDP could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 1.3280 neckline under immediate test
H4 close back below the 1.3280 neckline and the ema20 near 1.3245 would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.3202 double low resumes the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.3300 round number exposes the 1.3336 prior low, then the 1.3387 lower high where the downtrend read would be invalidated
Lower highs from 1.3568; basing in a 1.3202–1.3280 range.
Cable has printed lower highs and lower lows since slipping out of the 1.3470–1.3568 base mid-month. The slide has stalled in a 1.3202–1.3280 range that now carries a double btm. The latest bar broke the lower-highs trendline on the UK GDP beats and a softer USD, and is now pressing the range top, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3400–1.3202 fib; price holds above the ema20 but remains below EMA50 near 1.3280, and ATR(14) around 26 pips reflects a compressed regime.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3301, 1.3336
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3280 range top opens the fib 50% at 1.3301 and the prior lows near 1.3336
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.3240 returns focus to the 1.3202 double btm
Break below the 1.3202 double btm resumes the lower-low sequence
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) today could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a base above 1.3200 · RSI 54 · price 1.32634
Lower highs from 1.3406; 1.3202-1.3280 range with twin lows.
Cable has put in lower highs since the mid-month breakdown from the 1.3470-1.3568 range. It has now carved a week-long range between the 1.3202 range floor and the 1.3280 range top, with twin lows at 1.3204/1.3202 forming a potential double bottom. Today's UK GDP beats lifted price back above the ema20 and into the range top, which also marks the 38.2% fib of the 1.3406-1.3202 leg. EMA20 still sits below EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 26 pips from 70-90 pips on the breakdown bars.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3349, 1.3406
What it said to watch
US core PCE and ADP today from 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of the H4 close
H4 close above the 1.3280 range top / fib 38.2 completes the double bottom and exposes the 1.3349 breakdown pivot
Failure back below the ema20 near 1.3238 returns price to the middle of the range
Break of the 1.3202 range floor confirms a fresh lower low in the downtrend
Any recovery stays inside lower-high structure while below the 1.3406 lower high
Lower highs/lower lows, basing in 1.3202-1.3280 range.
Lower highs and lower lows have run since the mid-month break below 1.3440. Over the past week the slide has stalled into a 1.3202-1.3280 range, and the latest test undercut the 1.3204 swing low before closing back above it. Price holds below both EMAs, with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 24 pips as USD strength on 2004-era yields and Fed hike bets outweighs hawkish BoE talk.
Support: 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3335, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3202 swing low, and through the 1.3200 psych level, extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 1.3280 range top (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.3335 prior low in view
Only a reclaim of the 1.3400 swing high unwinds the downtrend read
UK GDP final at 06:00 GMT, then US ADP and core PCE at 12:15-12:30 UTC, could break the ATR compression
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since the mid-month drop below 1.3440, with the lower high at 1.3406 and the 1.3349 breakdown pivot capping the slide into the low 1.32s. The past week and a half has compressed into a 1.3202-1.3280 range. Twin lows near 1.3202 are holding at the June low area, while US yields above 5% keep the dollar bid. ATR(14) near 24 pips is well below the breakdown-leg expansion, price sits under both EMAs, and the range high lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3400-1.3202 leg.
Support: 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3349, 1.3406
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3202 range low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
H4 close above the 1.3280 range high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens 1.3349 breakdown
US ADP and core PCE today (f/c 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read
UK Q2 GDP final (f/c 0.4% QoQ) is a secondary catalyst for a test of either range edge