1.3202–1.3311 weekly range; Wednesday impulse retraced to 50%.
Cable rallied through Wednesday's London session from the 1.3223 Asian range and Tuesday's 1.3202 week low, helped by the UK GDP beat and the soft US PCE print. It spiked to the 1.3311 week high in early NY hours, but could not hold above the 1.3280 Monday high and faded back to the 50% fib of the move near 1.3256. Price is now flat at EMA(20), and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s, so the week reads as a 1.3202–1.3311 range rather than a trend.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3280 monday high would negate the false-break read and reopen the 1.3311 week high
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.3256 exposes the weekly open at 1.3233
A break of the 1.3202 week low would mark a lower low for the week
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, then US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
Higher low off 1.3202, pullback from 1.3311 week high.
Wednesday's impulse from 1.3223 ran through the London session on the UK GDP upgrade and cleared the 1.3280 monday high to print a week high at 1.3311. It reversed during NY hours as strong US activity data outweighed the soft PCE print. The pullback stalled at 1.3256, the fib 61.8 of that impulse, and price now sits just above EMA(20) near 1.3261 with RSI(14) cooled from the mid-70s to around 56. The week is still a 1.3202–1.3311 range, and the push above the monday high reads as a false break unless 1.3280 is reclaimed.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3280 monday high reopens the 1.3311 week high
Loss of the 1.3256 fib 61.8 and the 1.3233 weekly open would put the 1.3202 week low back in play
A break of the higher lows trendline from Tuesday's 1.3202 low, near 1.3245, undercuts the recovery structure
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, BoE's Mann Thu 12:00 UTC, and ISM Manufacturing with Fed's Waller Thu 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.3223 off the 1.3202 week low; break above Monday high slipped back under.
GBPUSD rebounded from Tuesday's 1.3202 week low through Wednesday's London session on the UK GDP beat. It cleared the 1.3280 Monday high and tagged a 1.3311 week high around the soft US PCE print, then met rejection as strong US activity data pulled price back under 1.3280 during NY hours. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.3261, just above the 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's rally at 1.3256, with RSI(14) cooled from 76 to 54 and the higher-low line and weekly open at 1.3233 forming the base of the rebound.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3280 Monday high negates the false break read and puts the 1.3311 week high back in focus
Loss of EMA(20) and the 1.3256 fib level of Wednesday's rally exposes the weekly open at 1.3233 and the higher-low line
A break of the 1.3202 week low would cancel the higher-low structure and mark a fresh two-month low
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Turned higher off the week low, momentum cooling · RSI 68 · price 1.32852
Double bottom breakout above 1.3280, retest in progress.
GBPUSD set a double bottom at 1.3202–1.3204, marked by the Thursday and Tuesday NY-session lows. Today's London rally on the UK GDP beat, extended in NY by the soft US PCE print, cleared Tuesday's down line and the monday high at 1.3280. Supply capped two pushes above 1.3300 psych, and the 1.3311 week high marks the rejection. Price is now retesting the monday high, with a rising EMA(20) near 1.3263 below and RSI(14) easing to about 68 from its peak.
Support: 1.3280, 1.3263, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3280 monday high exposes the 38.2% fib of the Tue-Wed rally at 1.3269 and the ema20 near 1.3263
Failure to hold the ema20 opens the 50% fib near 1.3257 and the weekly open at 1.3233
H1 close above the 1.3311 week high extends the breakout through 1.3300 psych
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could materially shift this read. So could BoE's Mann (Thu 12:00 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid (Thu 14:00 UTC)
V-reversal off 1.3202; retesting Monday high after rejection above 1.3300.
Tuesday's slide into NY hours printed the 1.3202 week low. Price then reversed through Wednesday: the UK Q2 GDP beat lifted it in London, and the soft core PCE print carried it to a 1.3311 week high. A rejection just above 1.3300 has pulled price back to the Monday high at 1.3280, with RSI(14) easing from the low 70s and the ema20 near 1.3259 sitting close to the 50% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday rally.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the ema20 near 1.3259 would turn the push above the monday high into a false break
An H1 close above the 1.3311 week high extends the rising lows sequence from Tuesday
Losing the 1.3233 weekly open and the rising lows line exposes the 1.3202 week low again
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then BoE Mann (12:00 UTC) and US ISM (14:00 UTC) Thursday, could materially shift this read
V-shaped reversal from 1.3202; higher low, Monday high broken.
Cable reversed Tuesday's NY-session slide to the 1.3202 week low. It left a higher low in Wednesday's Asian range, then the UK GDP beat carried it through the 1.3280 Monday high during London hours. The soft US core PCE print spiked price to a 1.3311 week high before it faded back under the 1.3300 psych level. That leaves an upper-wick rejection, with RSI(14) near 72 and price about 30 pips above the EMA(20) at 1.3258.
Support: 1.3280, 1.3258, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33109
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3280 Monday high, which also marks the 38.2% of Wednesday's impulse, would mark the breakout as failed
Sustained trade above the 1.3311 week high negates the PCE-bar rejection
A pullback holding the EMA(20) near 1.3258 keeps the Wednesday higher-lows structure intact
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari this evening could shift the post-PCE read
Thursday's ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) and BoE's Mann (12:00 UTC) are the next event risks, with the 1.3202 week low the deeper reference
Cable ranged 1.3202–1.3280 through Monday and Tuesday, with the weekly low at 1.3202 printed during Tuesday's NY session and a higher low at 1.3223 in today's Asian range. The upbeat UK Q2 GDP revisions and softer US front-end yields drove a rally from the weekly open area through the London session, clearing the Monday high at 1.3280 and tagging the 1.3300 round number. Price now sits back on the Monday high, well above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 74 in overbought territory.
Support: 1.3280, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
US core PCE at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.3% MoM, 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 1.3280 Monday high turns the breakout into a false break and returns price to the range
Rejection at the 1.3300 round number would leave a lower high against the session high
Failure to hold the higher-lows line and the 1.3233 weekly open, near the fib 61.8% at 1.3240, would unwind the rally from the weekly low
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into 1.3300 · RSI 73 · price 1.3290
Higher low off Tue 1.3202, 1.3280 range top broken.
GBPUSD bottomed at Tuesday's 1.3202 week low in NY hours, then climbed from the London open today. The upward UK GDP revisions and Williams' softer line on Fed timing both weighed on the USD, lifting price through the 1.3280 monday high to tag the 1.3300 week high. After six straight up bars, RSI(14) near 73 is overbought, and price sits about 40 pips above the ema20 near 1.3251, which lines up with the 50% fib of the Tuesday-to-today move and sits above the higher lows trendline.
Support: 1.3280, 1.3251, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the hour
An H1 close back below the 1.3280 monday high would turn the range break into a false break
An H1 close above the 1.3300 week high would extend the range break; without one, overbought RSI leaves the ema20 / 50% fib area near 1.3251 exposed
A break of the higher lows trendline and then the 1.3202 week low would confirm a lower-low
Double bottom near 1.3202/1.3204, Monday-high range top broken.
Cable bottomed at 1.3202 in Tuesday's NY session, matching last Thursday's 1.3204 floor. It then rallied through the London session after upward UK GDP revisions and softer US yields. The move cleared the monday high at 1.3280, the range top since the weekly open at 1.3233, and price is now pressing the 1.3300 psych level at the week high. Price sits about 50 pips above the H1 ema20 with RSI(14) near 77, a stretched leg that has not yet had a pullback to test the breakout.
Support: 1.3280, 1.3248, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) today could materially shift this read. A core print at or above 3.4% risks reversing the Wednesday rally.
An H1 close back below the 1.3280 monday high turns the range break into a false break.
A drop through the ema20 near 1.3248 and toward the weekly open at 1.3233 would negate the higher lows since Tuesday.
Rejection at the 1.3300 psych level with RSI(14) rolling over from overbought would flag exhaustion of the rally.
10:01 UTC
Range-bound, sharp rebound to range top · RSI 71 · price 1.32735
Week range 1.3202–1.3280; Wednesday V-recovery retesting week high.
Cable has held a 1.3202–1.3280 range all week. Monday's London-to-NY rally set the week high near 1.3280, Tuesday's NY session unwound it to the 1.3202 week low, and Wednesday's London open recovered the whole leg on the UK GDP upgrade and softer US yields. Price now sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 71, pressing the week high, while the fib of the Tue–Wed leg puts its 38.2% at the Monday lows around 1.3250 and its 61.8% at the 1.3233 weekly open.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) in ~2h could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3280 week high breaks the range and opens the path to the 1.3300 round number
Rejection at 1.3280 with RSI rolling off overbought keeps the range intact and puts the Monday lows at 1.3250 (38.2% fib) in focus
Loss of the 1.3233 weekly open (61.8% fib) and the rising support from Tuesday's low exposes the 1.3202 week low again
09:02 UTC
Range recovery, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.32627
1.3202–1.3280 weekly range; higher low off week low.
Cable has retraced almost all of Tuesday's NY-session slide to the 1.3202 week low. The UK GDP beat at the London open drove a roughly 55-pip GDP leg to 1.3278, just shy of Monday's 1.3280 week high. The move cleared the Tuesday high at 1.3252 and lifted price well above the EMA(20) near 1.3239, with RSI(14) back in the mid-60s, but the upper wick at 1.3278 shows supply still capping the week high.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3239, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3280 week high breaks the range top and opens the 1.3300 psych level
Slip back below the 1.3252 Tuesday high (38.2% of the GDP leg) puts the ema20 near 1.3239 in play
Break of the rising lows line off 1.3202 exposes the week low; a close below 1.3202 confirms a lower-low
1.3202–1.3280 weekly range; higher lows since Tuesday's low, price back above the lower high.
The week opened on a small gap lower near 1.3233. Monday's London and NY sessions carried price to the 1.3280 week high, then Tuesday's NY selloff hit the 1.3202 week low as US yields hit 2004-era levels and BoE's Taylor pushed back on hikes. Wednesday's pre-London rebound, on upbeat UK Q2 GDP revisions and softer yields, lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.3235, through Tuesday's 1.3252 lower high and the 61.8% fib, to a 1.3261 day high, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3280 week high invalidates the range read
Rejection at the 1.3261 day high with a close back below the 1.3252 lower high returns price toward the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.3233–1.3235
A break of the higher-low line and the 1.3202 week low confirms a range break lower
Monday's London-open push to the 1.3280 week high faded. Tuesday's NY-session selloff on firm USD and yields then printed a week low at 1.3202, matching Thursday's 1.3204 base. Price has since reclaimed the EMA(20) near 1.3233 and cleared the falling trendline off Monday's peak, and the early London bounce around the upbeat UK Q2 GDP revisions is now pressing the 1.3252 Tuesday high, just above the 61.8% fib of the week's decline, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3252, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3252 Tuesday high opens the path back toward the 1.3280 week high
Slip back below the EMA(20) at 1.3233 and the 1.3223 Asian low returns focus to the range base
Break of the 1.3202 week low confirms a fresh two-month low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3280; failed break of 1.3204 low, compressing below weekly open.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at the 1.3280 week high. Tuesday's NY-open selloff, driven by US yields at 2004-era highs, took out Thursday's 1.3204 low by two pips to a 1.3202 week low, a false break that reversed within the same session. Asia has since compressed into a 1.3223–1.3234 band, with the 38.2% retrace of the Monday–Tuesday drop and the weekly open capping the bounce, price flat against EMA(20) near 1.3228, and RSI(14) neutral at 47 under the lower-high line.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3255, 1.3280
What it said to watch
UK Q2 GDP final due now (0.4% QoQ f/c); a downside revision puts the 1.3202 week low back in focus
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
An H1 close above the weekly open 1.3234 and the lower-high line opens the path to the 1.3255 lower high, then the 1.3280 week high
A break of the 1.3223 Asian low exposes the 1.3202 week low; an H1 close below it confirms a lower low
Lower highs from 1.3280, tight range 1.3223-1.3234 overnight.
Monday's London-open push to the 1.3280 week high failed. Lower highs followed, and NY hours on Tuesday broke down to a 1.3202 week low as US yields and Fed-hike pricing lifted the USD. The rebound stalled near the week open at 1.3233, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday drop. Price is now holding a narrow Asian range just under EMA(20), with the Asian low at 1.3223 below, while RSI(14) has recovered to about 50 from Tuesday's lows.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3252, 1.3280
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.3202 week low exposes the two-month 1.3200 handle and extends the lower-high sequence
Acceptance above the week open at 1.3233 and the lower-highs trendline shifts focus to the 1.3252 tuesday high
Loss of the 1.3223 asian low ends the overnight pause
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could move price within the Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the main risk to this read during NY hours
04:01 UTC
Range-bound with lower highs since Monday's peak · RSI 54 · price 1.3234
Lower highs from 1.3280, lows holding 1.3202-1.3204.
Monday's London-to-NY push to the 1.3280 week high was rejected. Tuesday's NY session then fell from the 1.3252 tuesday high to the 1.3202 week low as US yields hit 2004-era levels, matching last Thursday's 1.3204 low. The Asia session rebound has held the 1.3225 asian low and is now at the weekly open and 38.2% retracement near 1.3233, pressing the lower-high line. Price is back above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3241, 1.3252, 1.3280
What it said to watch
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could shift the read around the weekly open
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the main risk to the 1.3202 week low
An H1 close below 1.3200 breaks the double-low base and confirms a lower-low
A close above the 50% fib and the 1.3252 tuesday high clears the lower-high line and reopens the 1.3280 week high
Failure back under the 1.3225 asian low returns focus to the week low
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may distort price action
Monday's London-open rally ran into supply at the 1.3280 week high. Tuesday's NY-session drop, driven by broad USD strength on 2004-era yields, retested last Thursday's 1.3204 area and set a 1.3202 week low. The late-NY bounce has stalled just under the 38.2% fib of that decline and the 1.3233 weekly open. Price sits marginally above ema20 at 1.3225 but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 48 in a quiet Asia session.
Support: 1.32253, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.32329, 1.32522, 1.32799
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 week low and 1.3200 psych breaks the twin floor with Thursday's 1.3204
Close above the 1.3252 tue high clears the lower-high trendline from the 1.3280 week high and invalidates the lower-high sequence
Acceptance above the 1.3233 weekly open and 38.2% fib shifts focus to the 50% retracement near 1.3241
Loss of ema20 at 1.3225 returns the focus to the week low
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, then US ADP and core PCE from 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Monday's London-open rally set the 1.3280 week high in NY, then unwound into a sequence of lower highs. The NY session on Tuesday drove the slide to a 1.3202 week low as US 10-year yields pressed 2004-era highs and BoE's Taylor pushed back on hike talk. A rejection of that low bounced only to 1.3234, just under the 1.3233 week open, EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib, and price is now pinned to EMA(20) in a tight Asian range above the 1.3223 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3252, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3233 week open and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence, exposing the 1.3252 lower high
Loss of the 1.3223 Asian low reopens the 1.3202 week low, which sits at the 1.3200 two-month low
Recovery through the 1.3280 week high would invalidate the lower-high structure entirely
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT and US ADP/core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.3280, double-tested floor near 1.3202, bounce capped below weekly open.
Monday's London-led push to the 1.3280 week high fully unwound on Tuesday, with the NY session rejecting the 1.3252 Tue high and driving to the 1.3202 swing low as US 10y yields above 5.2% kept the dollar bid. That low is a second test of Thursday's 1.3204 trough, and the bounce stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday drop. Price now holds a tight Asian range just under the weekly open at 1.3233, flat on EMA(20), below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3252, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 swing low breaks the double-tested floor and the 1.3200 June-low area
Loss of the 1.3222 Asian low would put the swing low back in play
Recovery above the weekly open at 1.3233 and the 38.2% fib shifts focus to the 1.3252 Tue high and the lower highs line
A move back through the 1.3280 week high would negate the lower-high sequence
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, then US ADP and core PCE from 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read; month-end flows add noise
Lower highs from 1.3280; range floor 1.3202 retested.
Monday's London-open push to a 1.3280 week high has been fully unwound. Tuesday's NY session drove price to a 1.3202 week low, a brief sweep of Thursday's 1.3204 low, as 2004-era US yields and a firm USD outweighed BoE hike talk. The late-NY bounce hit rejection at 1.3234, the weekly open and 38.2% fib of the Mon–Tue drop, and price now sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 46 after the lower-highs line capped every Tuesday rally.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3228, 1.3233, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.3233 weekly open and the lower-highs line near 1.3237 would neutralise the Tuesday downleg
Loss of the 1.3223 asia low puts the week low back in focus
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, then US ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Week high at 1.3280 marks the top of the range and remains the upper reference