Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; price below a falling ema20 and ema50.
Cable has carved lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The hot US CPI drove the main leg of the CPI selloff in Tuesday's NY session, and each London or NY bounce since has been capped below the falling ema20. Friday's soft-PPI pop to 1.3251 was rejected at the ema50 into NY hours, and price then set a new week low at 1.3205, holding just above the 1.3200 round number but below ema20 at 1.3224. RSI(14) at 38.1 printed a higher low against that lower low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR(14) has eased to 13.1 pips from 15.3.
Support: 1.32047, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32241, 1.32485, 1.32791
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above ema20 at 1.3224 and the lower-highs trendline would test the downtrend read
A break of the 1.3205 week low and the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3140 4-month low
Recovery through the ema50 at 1.3249 and the 1.3279 thu high would end the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson (00:00 UTC) and BoE's Greene (Sat 11:00 GMT) could shift the Monday open; Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC is the larger risk to this read
Lower highs each day since Tuesday's pre-CPI peak; price below both EMAs.
Cable has carved a lower high every day since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak, with the dominant legs in NY hours: the hot US CPI break, then Thursday's slide that erased the London bounce on UK data beats. Friday's PPI spike to the ppi high at 1.3251 was rejected inside the hour and failed under the falling ema50, sending price to a fresh week low at 1.3205 as DXY held its 19-month highs. RSI(14) at 38.1 sits above its 32 reading from earlier Friday despite the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR eases back to 13 pips from 15 after the data.
Support: 1.32047, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32241, 1.32508, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.3224 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.3240 would break the daily lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the week low at 1.3205 and the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3140 4-month low
Recovery through the 1.3251 ppi high and Thursday's 1.3279 thu high would mark a deeper retrace of the CPI sell-off
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Chair Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read; UK wages Tue and CPI Wed follow
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; 1.3220 shelf broken.
Cable has printed lower highs all week from Tuesday's 1.3459 peak. The main leg of the week's decline came in NY hours after Tuesday's hot US CPI, and every rebound since has stalled under a falling lower-highs trendline. Friday's post-PPI spike to 1.3251 met rejection at the ema50, and the NY session then broke the 1.3220 shelf to a fresh week low at 1.3205. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI 39.6, and RSI at 34.9 on the new low versus 32 on Friday's earlier low is a mild bullish divergence, with ATR easing from 15.3 to 13.4 pips.
Support: 1.32047, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32255, 1.32501, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.3226 would reclaim the broken 1.3220 shelf
A move through the ema50 near 1.3250 and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence; 1.3279 lower high is next
Failure to hold the week low and the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3140 4-month low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and BoE's Greene Sat 11:00 GMT could shift the read
Fed Chair Warsh Mon 16 Nov 17:00 UTC is the high-impact risk for USD
Four lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak; Thu–Fri range floor broken to a new week low.
Cable has printed four successive lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak. The hot US CPI drove the main NY-session leg, and each rebound since has been capped below a falling EMA(50). Friday's PPI spike to the 1.3251 lower high was rejected within the NY session, and price broke the 1.3220 range floor to a fresh week low at 1.3205, trading below EMA(20) at 1.3227. RSI(14) at 36.6 held above its morning low on the new price low, and ATR(14) has eased to 14 pips after the PPI expansion.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.32267, 1.3251
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3220 range floor and EMA(20) would neutralise the break, with the 23.6% retrace of the week decline near 1.3265 above
A close above the 1.3251 lower high and the lower highs trendline would break the week's sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3140 4-month low area
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, BoE Greene Sat 11:00 GMT and Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; fresh week low after PPI spike faded.
Cable has shed roughly 250 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 high. The dominant leg came in the NY session after the hot US CPI print, and each bounce since has stalled at a lower high (1.3355, then the 1.3279 lower high, then the 1.3251 ppi high). Friday's PPI spike was rejected during NY hours and price slipped to a new week low at 1.3205, back under a falling EMA(20) at 1.3229 and EMA(50) at 1.3253. RSI(14) at 36.6 sits above Thursday night's 30.8 reading despite the lower price, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR has expanded to 14.6 pips from about 11 earlier in the session.
Support: 1.32047, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32285, 1.32508, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3251 ppi high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the week low and the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3140 4m low area
Rejection again at EMA(20) near 1.3229 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Jefferson speech in ~5h and BoE Greene on Saturday could shift the read into the weekly close
Price stalling back inside the 23.6% retrace of the CPI selloff near 1.3265 would signal the impulse is still being respected
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low into Friday NY · RSI 35 · price 1.32074
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Friday floor broken.
Cable has carved lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's London high at 1.3459. The hot US CPI drove the main leg in Tuesday's NY session, and each NY session since has extended the week's drop as Fed-hike repricing outweighed solid UK GDP. Friday's PPI spike to the 1.3251 ppi high was rejected below EMA(50) 1.3255, and the 1.3218 broken floor gave way into the NY afternoon. That leaves a fresh week low at 1.3205 with price under EMA(20) 1.3230; RSI(14) at 34.9 holds above its ~31 Thursday-night trough despite the lower price, and ATR has expanded from 11 to ~15 pips.
Support: 1.32047, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3218, 1.32304, 1.32508
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3218 broken floor and ema20 at 1.3230 would mark the Friday break as a false break
Failure to hold 1.3200 below the week low opens the path to the 1.3140 4-month low area
A move through the 1.3251 ppi high breaks the lower-highs trendline from Thursday
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and BoE Greene on Saturday could shift the read; Warsh on Monday is the larger risk
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding into Friday close · RSI 36 · price 1.32121
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, price below both EMAs.
Cable has carved a clean sequence of lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 high. The dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI, and each later bounce, including Thursday's post-GDP move to the 1.3279 thu high, was sold. Friday's NY-session spike to 1.3251 (fri high) during the PPI release and Fed speakers was rejected just under EMA(50) at 1.3257, and price then broke Friday's range to a fresh week low at 1.3208. RSI(14) sits at 36.3 after failing at 53, and ATR has expanded from 10.9 to 15.3 pips, with price capped below EMA(20) at 1.3233.
Support: 1.32076, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32328, 1.32508, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.3233 would neutralise the Friday range break
Failure to hold the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3140 supp flagged in the digest
A move above the 1.3251 fri high, then the 1.3279 thu high, would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson (Sat 00:00 UTC) and BoE's Greene (Sat 11:00 UTC) could shift the read into the weekly open
Lower highs since Tuesday; floor retest at 1.3218.
Cable has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 London-session high. The hot US CPI drove the main leg in NY hours, and Thursday's NY selloff reached the 1.3218–1.3221 week low despite UK GDP and production beats. Friday's soft-PPI spike to the 1.3251 ppi high was rejected back below EMA(20) at 1.3235, leaving price pinned on the week low with ATR expanding to 15.3 pips. RSI at 40 holds above the low-30s readings seen late Thursday.
Support: 1.3218, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32351, 1.32508, 1.32588
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3218 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3200 round number, then the 1.3140 four-month low
H1 close above the 1.3251 ppi high and EMA(50) at 1.3259 breaks the lower-highs trendline and weakens the downtrend read
38.2% retracement of the week's drop sits near 1.3310, the next cap on any extended rebound
Fed's Daly in ~1h and Jefferson overnight could move USD and test the week low floor
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.3459 top; small double-bottom base 1.3218–1.3243 now testing its upper edge.
Cable has fallen about 240 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The hot US CPI drove the dominant leg into Tuesday's NY session, and the Wednesday and Thursday NY sessions extended the slide. Since Thursday's NY session price has based between the 1.3218 week low and a 1.3243 neckline, with Friday's marginal lower low printed on a higher RSI(14) than the overnight trough. Softer US PPI lifted price through the lower-highs line and back above EMA(20) at 1.3237 to a 1.3251 PPI high, but EMA(50) at 1.3260 still sits overhead, with RSI(14) only back to 53 and ATR expanding off its lows.
Support: 1.3243, 1.32366, 1.32179
Resistance: 1.32508, 1.32604, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3260 ema50 opens the Thu high at 1.3279 (23.6% fib) and the 38.2% retracement near 1.3310
Rejection at the 1.3251 PPI high and a slip back below the 1.3243 neckline and ema20 voids the double-bottom read
Break of the 1.3218 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY close
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, now basing at 1.3218–1.3250.
Cable has printed lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 high. The hot US CPI drove the main leg of the Tuesday decline in that day's NY session, and Thursday's NY session extended it to 1.3221. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3218–1.3250 base below EMA(20) at 1.3236 and EMA(50) at 1.3261, and the softer US PPI headline spiked price to the 1.3250 PPI high before the bar closed back near EMA(20), a rejection at the lower-high line; RSI(14) has lifted from 27.5 to 43.6 while price marked a marginal week low at 1.3218, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.3218, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32357, 1.3250, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3218 week low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 1.3200 round number next
H1 close above the 1.3250 PPI high and EMA(50) at 1.3261 breaks the lower-high line and challenges the downtrend read
Recovery through the 23.6% fib of the Tuesday decline near 1.3275 would mark the first meaningful retracement this week
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; tight Friday range at week low.
Cable has shed about 240 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 high. Each leg came in NY hours: first on the hot US CPI, then Wednesday, then Thursday after the bounce to the 1.3279 GDP high faded. That leaves a clean lower-highs line, with price below both a declining EMA(20) and the EMA(50). Friday has compressed into a 1.3218–1.3243 range capped by the Friday high and the EMA(20) at 1.3236, while ATR sits near 12 pips. The fresh week low at 1.3218 printed with RSI(14) at 38 versus 24 on Thursday's NY low, a bullish divergence against the USD-driven slide.
Support: 1.32179, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32361, 1.32431, 1.32791
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%, core YoY 5%) could materially shift this read within the hour; Fed's Bowman and Daly follow later in the NY session
H1 close below the 1.3218 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.3140 4-month low
H1 close above the 1.3243 Friday high and the ema20 would be the first break of the lower-highs line and confirm the RSI divergence
Acceptance above the 1.3279 GDP high, near the 23.6% retrace of the week decline, would neutralise the downtrend read
Lower highs/lower lows since Tue; tight base below ema20.
Cable has printed lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's hot US CPI print hit in the NY session. The slide ran from the 1.3459 week high to a 1.3219 week low as Fed-hike repricing outweighed firm UK GDP, and both EMAs keep sloping down above price. Today's London session made only a marginal new low while RSI(14) recovered from the mid-20s to 42, a bullish divergence, and price is now coiling just under ema20 at 1.3237 and the 1.3243 session high as ATR compresses.
Support: 1.3219, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32372, 1.3243, 1.32637
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~90 min) could materially shift this read
H1 close above ema20 and the 1.3243 session high would break the Friday base higher toward ema50 at 1.3264, near the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3219 week low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.3200 round number
Retracement of the week's drop stalls at the 38.2% fib near 1.3311 if a relief bounce extends
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 35 · price 1.32248
Lower highs and lower lows; tight range below EMA(20).
Cable has printed lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's hot US CPI set off a ~240-pip slide from the 1.3459 week high. The NY sessions on Wednesday and Thursday drove fresh legs lower, and UK GDP beats barely slowed the move. Since Thursday's NY low, price has compressed into a 1.3219–1.3243 range below the ema20 at 1.3238 and the falling EMA(50) at 1.3265, with ATR easing to 11.9 pips. Today's marginal new week low at 1.3219 came with RSI(14) at 35.4, against 24–27 at Thursday's low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.32193, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.32377, 1.32431, 1.32791
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print extending the CPI slide puts the 1.3200 round number and 1.3140 next support in play
An H1 close below the 1.3219 week low confirms another lower-low and voids the RSI divergence
An H1 close above the 1.3243 range top and ema20 opens the 1.3265 EMA(50) and the 1.3279 lower high, which sits near the 23.6% retracement of the CPI slide
Fed's Bowman and Daly speaking during NY hours after PPI can extend or unwind the post-data move
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 40 · price 1.32324
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.3459 top; tight 1.3221–1.3244 range since Thursday NY.
Cable has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 London-open top. The hot US CPI drove the main leg lower in Tuesday's NY session, and Thursday's NY selloff ran to 1.3221 despite UK GDP beats. Since then price has compressed in a 1.3221–1.3244 range just below a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3239, with ATR(14) easing from 14.5 to 11.7 pips. Friday's Asia–London retest of the week low found RSI(14) at 39 against 27 on Thursday's matching low, a bullish divergence inside the broader lower-high sequence.
Support: 1.32207, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32391, 1.3244, 1.32666
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, early in NY hours, could break the range either way and materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3221 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.3200 round number
H1 close above the 1.3244 range top and ema20 would confirm the divergence and open the ema50 near 1.3267, still beneath the 23.6% retracement around 1.3277
Failure to clear the lower highs trendline keeps the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs all week, now a tight base at the week low.
GBP/USD has shed ~240 pips from Tuesday's London-open high at 1.3459. The hot US CPI drove the main leg during NY hours, and Thursday's NY session printed the week low at 1.3221 despite firm UK GDP and output data. Each bounce has stalled at a lower high, Thursday's high at 1.3279 the latest, and price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3240 and EMA(50) at 1.3268. Friday's Asian-session retest of the week low came with RSI(14) near 39 versus 27 on Thursday, a bullish divergence, as ATR compresses to 11.6 pips inside a 1.3221–1.3243 band.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3268, 1.3279
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly follow in the NY session
H1 close above the ema20 and the 1.3243 band top would be the first break of this week's lower-high sequence, with the ema50 at 1.3268 and Thursday's high at 1.3279 above
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 psych level and voids the RSI divergence
Retracement of the CPI sell-off stalling below the 23.6% fib near 1.3277 keeps the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; equal lows at 1.3221.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows through the week's decline from Tuesday's 1.3459 high. The hot US CPI print drove the largest leg in Tuesday's NY session, and Wednesday's and Thursday's NY sessions extended the slide while in-line UK GDP gave no lift. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), and Friday's highs into the London open stalled at the ema20 near 1.3240 under the lower-highs line. The 1.3221 week low was retested in late Asia with RSI(14) at 39 against 24 on Thursday's drop, a bullish divergence, while ATR compresses from 14.5 to 11.3 pips.
Support: 1.32207, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32403, 1.32693, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3221 week low voids the RSI divergence and exposes the 1.3200 psych figure
A reclaim of the ema20 and the lower-highs line near 1.3240 breaks the lower-high sequence; the ema50 at 1.3269 and Thursday's 1.3279 prior high sit above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC to follow
Lower highs since Tuesday, potential double bottom at 1.3221.
The week's slide from the 1.3459 Tuesday high was driven by the hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session, with Wednesday's and Thursday's NY hours extending the lower highs. A London bounce on firm UK GDP faded below the 1.3279 Thursday high. Friday's Asia session retested the 1.3221 week low and held it, forming a potential double bottom. RSI(14) made a higher low at 39.3 against the 24.1 Thursday reading, and ATR has compressed to 11.2 pips. Price is still below both EMAs, and the forming bar is testing EMA(20) at 1.3242.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32415, 1.3271, 1.32791
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read during the NY session
H1 close above EMA(20) at 1.3242 confirms the double bottom and exposes EMA(50) at 1.3271 and the Thursday high at 1.3279
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 figure
A move back above the 1.3279 Thursday high breaks this week's lower-high structure
Daily lower highs since Tuesday; tight range below EMA(20).
Cable has printed a lower high every day since Tuesday's London-open peak at 1.3459. The hot US CPI drove the steepest leg in Tuesday's NY session, and UK GDP beats failed to lift the pair. Thursday's NY session then set a week low at 1.3221. Price is now compressing in a roughly 1.3223–1.3241 Asian range, capped by a falling EMA(20) at 1.3242, with ATR easing to 10.9 pips and RSI(14) at 32, up from Thursday's 24 trough.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32422, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3221 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Close back above ema20 (1.3242) and the lower-highs line breaks the Asian range to the upside
Recovery above the Thursday high at 1.3279, near EMA(50), invalidates the daily lower-high structure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, now compressing above the week low.
A lower-high sequence has held since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak at the London open. The hot US CPI print accelerated the slide during NY hours, and each NY session since has added a fresh leg down, most recently Thursday's to the 1.3221 week low. Price has since compressed in a 1.3221–1.3241 band below the falling ema20 at 1.3244. RSI(14) has recovered to 34.7 from a 24.1 trough and ATR(14) has eased to 11 pips, while beats in UK GDP, IP and manufacturing data drew little reaction against broad USD strength.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32437, 1.32743, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 1.3200 psych level in focus
H1 close below the 1.3221 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the ema20 (1.3244) and the lower highs trendline ends the compression; the ema50 at 1.3274 sits near the 23.6% level of the week decline fib and Thursday's 1.3279 high
Reclaim of the 1.3300 round number would undercut the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; tight base above week low.
Since Tuesday's hot US CPI print, GBPUSD has stepped down from the 1.3459 week high in a sequence of lower highs, with solid UK GDP on Thursday ignored as USD strength dominated. Thursday's London session printed the 1.3221 week low with RSI(14) dipping to 24, and price has since held a narrow 20-pip base below the falling ema20 (1.3245) with RSI recovered to 36 and ATR(14) contracting to 11 pips. The Thursday lower high at 1.3279 roughly aligns with the 23.6% retracement of the week's slide, and the lower-highs trendline sits just overhead.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32449, 1.32791, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a break of the current consolidation
H1 close above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.3245 would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
A move back toward the thu high at 1.3279 would test the 23.6% fib of the week's slide; the 1.3300 round number sits above
Fed's Bowman and Daly later in NY hours could extend any PPI-driven move
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI break, tight base above week low.
GBP/USD has printed a steady run of lower highs since the hot US CPI broke it from Tuesday's 1.3459 high, with each down leg landing in NY hours. Thursday's NY slide set the week low at 1.3221; UK GDP beats lifted the pair only briefly at that morning's London open before the USD bid returned. Price is now compressing in a 1.3228–1.3241 Asian range below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3246, which lines up with the lower-high trendline, while RSI(14) has climbed from 24 to 37.6 and ATR has eased to 11.4 pips.
Support: 1.32282, 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32459, 1.32776, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and the lower-high trendline near 1.3246 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the asian low at 1.3228 exposes the week low at 1.3221 and the 1.3200 round number
Close above the ema50 and the 23.6% fib near 1.3278 opens the 1.3300 psych level
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today (core y/y f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, tight range above week low.
GBPUSD has shed roughly 240 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. Hot US CPI drove the heaviest leg during Tuesday's NY session, and fresh lows followed in NY hours on Wednesday and Thursday, while Thursday's UK GDP beats were faded. Price has since compressed in a 1.3221–1.3241 band just above the week low, below a declining EMA(20) at 1.3247 and EMA(50) at 1.3279. RSI(14) has recovered to 36.9 from Thursday's 24 low, and the lower-highs sequence is still intact.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32467, 1.32791, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman and Daly following in NY hours
H1 close below the 1.3221 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.3247 and the lower-highs trendline would be the first break in this week's sequence; the prior high at 1.3279, aligned with EMA(50), sits next
Reclaim of the 1.3300 psych level, near the 38.2% retracement of the week drop at 1.3312, would neutralise the downtrend read
Lower highs since Tuesday, tight Asia consolidation above week low.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session drove the dominant leg, and NY hours yesterday extended the 1.3459–1.3221 decline to a fresh week low despite in-line UK GDP. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3248, where the lower highs trendline converges, and below EMA(50) at 1.3281, which lines up with Thursday's 1.3279 high. Asia is compressing in a 1.3224–1.3239 band, with ATR easing to 12 pips and RSI(14) at 31, just above oversold.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32478, 1.3281
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read with DXY near its 103.08 high
H1 close below the 1.3221 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
H1 close above EMA(20) at 1.3248 breaks the lower highs trendline; EMA(50) at 1.3281 and Thursday's high are the next cap
RSI(14) holding above its 24 low on a new price low would form a bullish divergence
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 high, holding just above the week low.
The NY session has driven the week's slide from the 1.3459 high, starting with Tuesday's hot US CPI and extending Wednesday and Thursday as the USD rally kept running. Thursday's bounce after UK GDP stalled at a lower high of 1.3279, right at a falling EMA(20). The NY-hours drop then printed a week low at 1.3221, and price is now in a tight Asia range below the EMA(20) at 1.3250. RSI(14) has lifted from 24 to 31 without a divergence against the lower lows. ATR is easing from 14.5 to 12.6 pips, and the lower-high trendline keeps capping rebounds.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32495, 1.32791, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read, with a soft print the main risk to the lower-high sequence
Hourly close above the ema20 at 1.3250 and the lower-high trendline would break the run of capped rebounds
Recapturing the 1.3279 lower high and the 1.3300 round number would mark the 23.6–38.2% zone of the week decline fib as reclaimed
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 psych level