Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak.
GBPUSD peaked at 1.3459 early Tuesday, then the hot US CPI print in NY hours turned the week into a 240-pip slide. Each lower high has stalled at or under a falling EMA(20). Thursday's London bounce was rejected at the 1.3279 lower high near ema20, and the NY session ignored firm UK GDP to print a week low at 1.3221. Price is now drifting at 1.3236, below ema20 at 1.3252 and ema50 at 1.3285. RSI(14) has recovered to 32.7 after a 24 trough, and ATR has eased to 12.8 from 14.5 as the decline pauses.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32515, 1.32791, 1.32852
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams speaks within the hour; hawkish remarks could extend the move toward the week low
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 round number, a level flagged into Friday's US PPI
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.3252 would be the first break of the pullback-cap pattern
Close above the 1.3279 lower high, with ema50 at 1.3285 just above, would break the lower-high sequence
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak; week low 1.3221.
Cable has carved lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The break began in the London session and extended into NY on the hot US CPI print, followed by a second leg during Thursday's NY session that took out 1.3250 to a week low at 1.3221 as the dollar firmed on hawkish Fed repricing, with the UK GDP beats fading quickly. Price sits below a falling ema20 (1.3253) and ema50 (1.3287), and the ema20 lines up with the lower-highs trendline; RSI(14) has recovered to 33.6 after failing to print a meaningfully deeper low than Thursday's Asia-session dip, while ATR is easing back from its 14.5 peak.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32533, 1.32791, 1.32872
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the ema20 near 1.3253 breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the thu high at 1.3279 in focus
Reclaiming the ema50 at 1.3287 would mark the first higher high since Tuesday
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 top.
Cable has fallen about 238 pips from Tuesday's London-open high at 1.3459. The hot US CPI print drove the main leg during Tuesday's NY session, and each NY session since has extended it as Fed-hike repricing lifted the dollar. Thursday's in-line UK GDP brought only a brief London bounce, capped at the thu high of 1.3279, before NY hours set a week low at 1.3221. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50) on lower highs. RSI(14) at 34 printed a higher low against that new low, a mild bullish divergence, as ATR(14) eased to 13.4 pips from 14.5.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3255, 1.32791, 1.32893
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the ema20 at 1.3255 and the lower-highs trendline would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the thu high at 1.3279 and the ema50 at 1.3289 puts the 38.2% fib near 1.3312 in play
Failure to hold the week low at 1.3221 exposes the 1.3200 psych level and cancels the RSI divergence
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 top; fresh week low at 1.3221.
Cable has printed a lower high every session since Tuesday's 1.3459 London-open top. Hot US CPI drove the main leg lower during NY hours, and Thursday's NY session extended to a 1.3221 week low even though UK GDP came in line. Price sits below both EMA(20) at 1.3257 and EMA(50) at 1.3291, and Thursday's London bounce stalled near EMA(20) at the 1.3279 lower high. RSI(14) bottomed higher at the new low (24–27 against 23 early Thursday), a mild bullish divergence, while ATR expanded to 14 pips.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32568, 1.32791, 1.32914
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3279 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's sequence of lower highs
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.3257 would be the first sign the RSI divergence has traction; the ema50 at 1.3291 sits just above
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI break, testing 1.3221 week low.
Cable has fully unwound Monday's rally from the 1.3349 weekly open. The 1.3459 week high gave way in NY hours on Tuesday after the hot US CPI, and every bounce since has printed a lower high. Thursday's NY session added another leg to a 1.3221 week low as hawkish Fedspeak kept USD bid, while in-line UK GDP drew little response. Price sits below a falling ema20 (1.3259) and ema50 (1.3294), RSI(14) is oversold at 27.5 with ATR expanding to 14.3 pips, and a marginal bullish RSI divergence is forming against Thursday's Asia session low.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32589, 1.32791, 1.32936
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.3259 and the 1.3279 lower high would break the descending trendline of lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ema50 at 1.3294, just under 1.3300, caps the first recovery zone; the 23.6% retracement of the week range sits near 1.3277
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high.
Cable has slid about 240 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The hot US CPI drove the NY-session break that day, and each day since has printed a lower high, at 1.3355 Wednesday and 1.3279 Thursday. Thursday's London bounce on in-line UK GDP stalled below the falling EMA(20), and NY hours took out the 1.3250 prior low to a 1.3221 week low as Fed hawks lifted the dollar. RSI(14) at 24.1 is oversold but still above Thursday's early 23.0 reading despite the lower price low, while ATR expanding to 14.5 pips shows the decline accelerating rather than exhausting.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3262, 1.3279
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly and Schmid within the hour, then Williams later tonight, could extend or reverse the NY move
US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for this structure
Failure to hold the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
H1 close back above 1.3250 prior low and the ema20 at 1.3262 would break the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 1.3279 lower high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 high.
GBPUSD has held a clean H1 downtrend since Tuesday's 1.3459 London high. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the leg through 1.3300, and every rebound since has been capped below a falling lower-high line, with EMA(20) at 1.3266 turning bounces away since Wednesday. Today's NY session broke the 1.3250 Asia low and printed a 1.3221 NY low despite the UK GDP beats. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.9 but sits above its Thursday-morning low near 23, a mild bullish divergence on the new low. ATR(14) has expanded to 14.2 pips.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32498, 1.32658, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3250 Asia low would mark the NY break as a false move
Failure to hold the 1.3221 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
Close above ema20 at 1.3266 and then the 1.3279 lower high, near the 23.6% of the Tue-Thu drop, breaks the lower-high trendline
Fed's Daly and Schmid within ~90 min, then US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak, capped by falling EMA(20).
GBPUSD has fully unwound Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The hot US CPI print broke the move during NY hours, and every session since has printed a lower high under a falling EMA(20). The London bounce after in-line UK GDP stalled at the 1.3279 lower high just above ema20, and the NY session then cut through the 1.3250 Asia low to a fresh week low at 1.3221 as Fed-hike pricing kept the USD bid. RSI(14) at 27 is oversold but sits above the 23 trough from the Asia session, a tentative bullish divergence, while ATR expanding to 14.3 pips shows the selling picking up pace.
Support: 1.32209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32687, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3250 Asia low and ema20 (1.3269) would mark the first stall in the lower-high sequence
A break above the 1.3279 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
Acceptance below the 1.3221 week low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Fed's Goolsbee in ~30 min, then Daly and Schmid, could extend or reverse the NY move
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major test of December 50bp hike pricing
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high; price below both EMAs.
The Tuesday-to-Thursday selloff from the 1.3459 week high began with the hot US CPI print in the NY session, and price now sits below EMA(20) at 1.3272 and EMA(50) at 1.3304, both sloping lower. The bounce after the in-line UK GDP data stalled in London at a 1.3279 lower high just above the ema20, and NY hours printed a fresh week low at 1.3245, below the 1.3250 prior low from the Asia session. RSI(14) at 30.2 is above its 23 reading at that Asia low, a bullish divergence on the new low, while ATR has expanded to 13.3 pips.
Support: 1.32451, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32498, 1.3272, 1.32791
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3250 prior low turns the latest break into a false break
A close above the 1.3279 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Hold below the 1.3245 week low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Fed's Goolsbee (16:30 UTC), Daly and Williams today, then US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3459; flat base forming at 1.3250.
GBPUSD has unwound Monday's rally from the 1.3349 weekly open. It reversed from Tuesday's 1.3459 high in London, accelerated into NY on the hot US CPI, and Wednesday's NY session added another leg to a 1.3250 week low. Since Asia today 1.3250 has held twice, through the beat in UK monthly data and again into the NY open, while RSI(14) lifted from the mid-20s to about 40, a bullish divergence at matching lows; price still sits below a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3275 and the 1.3279 day high, the neckline of an unconfirmed double bottom.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32746, 1.32791, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3279 day high confirms the double bottom and opens the 1.3300 round number, near EMA(50) at 1.3307
Failure to hold the 1.3266 wed ny low returns focus to the 1.3250 week low
H1 close below the 1.3250 week low resumes the downtrend and voids the RSI divergence
Lower highs at 1.3286 and 1.3279 still cap the base; a break above them shifts the read to recovery
Fedspeak through NY hours (Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; shallow bounce capped at ema20.
The week opened near 1.3349 and London-led buying carried the pair to a 1.3459 high early Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then drove a ~140-pip NY-session drop, and the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows since, reaching a 1.3250 week low in Thursday's Asia session. UK GDP and production beats this morning lifted price only to 1.3279, where it met rejection just above the ema20 at 1.32753. Price now sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) has climbed from sub-30 readings to 37.7, and ATR has eased from 13.6 to 11.7 pips. The london low at 1.32588 is the nearest support.
Support: 1.32588, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32753, 1.32864, 1.33081
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT, followed by Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee and Daly, could materially shift this read within the next few bars
H1 close above the 1.32864 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the ema50 at 1.33081
Failure to hold the london low at 1.32588 exposes the 1.3250 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
US PPI Friday 13:30 GMT is the next high-impact USD catalyst
Lower highs below EMA(20), tight base above week low.
Cable has shed about 209 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. Most of it came in the CPI selloff after the hot US print in Tuesday's NY session, and the slide extended to a 1.3250 week low in today's Asia session. The beat in UK GDP and industrial data at London open lifted price about 25 pips, but the bounce is capped near a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3276 and a series of lower highs. Price sits below EMA(50) at 1.3310. RSI(14) has recovered to 40 from sub-30 readings, and ATR has compressed to 11.6 pips as the range tightens above Wednesday's 1.3266 low.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32763, 1.32864, 1.33099
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3286 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts EMA(50) at 1.3310 and the 1.3300 pivot in play
Failure to hold the 1.3266 wed low exposes the 1.3250 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~90 min) and the afternoon Fed speaker slate could expand the compressed ATR
Repeated H1 rejections at EMA(20) keep the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.3459 peak; tight consolidation 1.3250–1.3286 since Wednesday NY.
Cable has shed roughly 210 pips in the Tuesday–Thursday drop from the 1.3459 London high. The selling began in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print, extended through Wednesday NY to the wed low at 1.3266, and set a week low at 1.3250 in Thursday's Asia session. Since then price has based in a 1.3250–1.3286 range, and this morning's UK GDP and production beats lifted it from 07:00 UTC into the falling ema20 at 1.3277, where it sits just below. RSI(14) has recovered from 23 to 42.3 without divergence, ATR has compressed to 11.6 pips, and the ema50 at 1.3312 is still sloping lower above the range top.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32769, 1.32864, 1.33115
What it said to watch
H1 close above the range top at 1.3286 and the ema20 would end the consolidation read and open the path toward the ema50 near 1.3312 and the 1.3300 pivot
Failure to hold the wed low at 1.3266 returns focus to the week low at 1.3250; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate this afternoon (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly) could materially shift this read
US PPI on Friday 13:30 UTC is the week's high-impact USD risk for the range
Cable has given back about 210 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The hot US CPI print drove the NY-session breakdown on Tuesday and a second leg followed on Wednesday afternoon, leaving price below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3277 and EMA(50) at 1.3313. Thursday's Asia session printed the week low at 1.3250 with RSI(14) at 23, against 19.3 on Wednesday's low, a bullish divergence. The in-line UK GDP, with monthly beats, lifted the pair only to EMA(20) in early London trade, while ATR compressed to 11.7 pips as price bases between the week low and the 1.3286 range top.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3277, 1.3286, 1.3313
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3286 range top and EMA(20) opens the 23.6% fib of the Tue–Thu drop near 1.3299, then EMA(50) at 1.3313
A break of the 1.3261 Asia low and then the 1.3250 week low extends the lower-low sequence and voids the RSI divergence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly) from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Cable has dropped about 210 pips from Tuesday's London-session high at 1.3459. The hot US CPI print triggered the break, and the NY sessions drove each leg lower as the Fed-repricing trade lifted the dollar. The week low at 1.3250 printed during today's Asian range with RSI(14) at 23, a higher low than Wednesday's 19.3 against a lower price low, so a bullish divergence is in place. The UK GDP beat at 07:00 UTC lifted price about 20 pips, but it is stalling just under EMA(20) at 1.3278 and the lower-highs line, with both EMAs still sloping down.
Support: 1.32613, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32777, 1.32864, 1.33147
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3286 prior high clears the lower-highs line and EMA(20), opening a test of EMA(50) near 1.3315
Failure to hold the 1.3261 Asia low puts the 1.3250 week low back in play; a break there negates the RSI divergence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 top; pause above week low.
Cable topped at 1.3459 early Tuesday, then hot US CPI drove a roughly 210-pip slide through NY hours Tuesday and Wednesday. It made a fresh week low at 1.3250 in Thursday's Asia session, and both EMAs keep sloping lower, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50). The UK GDP beats lifted price off the lows at London open toward the EMA(20) at 1.3279. RSI(14) printed a higher low near 25 against Wednesday's 19 at the 1.3266 wed low, a bullish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 14 to about 12 pips.
Support: 1.32662, 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32785, 1.3300, 1.33165
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the ema20 at 1.3279 and the lower-high trendline tests the downtrend read
1.3300 pivot (broken support) is the next cap; the ema50 at 1.3317 sits above it near the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 1.3250 week low voids the RSI divergence and confirms a further lower low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and a run of Fedspeak through NY session could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break, tight base near 1.3250.
The week opened near 1.3349 and ran to 1.3459 on Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then flipped the pair during NY hours, and every session since has printed lower highs: Wednesday's NY open extended to 1.3266 and the Asia session today set the week low at 1.3250. Price sits below ema20 at 1.3279 and EMA(50) at 1.3318, and RSI(14) has held oversold in a 19–31 band for 20 bars, with a slightly higher RSI low at the fresh price low while ATR compresses to 11.3 pips. The 50% retracement of the CPI leg sits near 1.3354, which matches Wednesday's early bounce high.
Support: 1.32498, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32794, 1.32864, 1.3300
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% QoQ) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.3250 week low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the 1.3200 round number as the next marker
A close above ema20 (1.3279) and the 1.3286 bounce high would break the lower-highs trendline and end the sequence; 1.3300 psych and the 23.6% of the CPI leg sit just above
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC; NY session has driven the dominant moves this week
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's week high.
The week opened near 1.3349 and rallied through Monday into a 1.3459 week high in Tuesday's London session. The pair then rolled over, and the hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) accelerated the slide into the NY session. Wednesday's London/NY selling broke the 1.3300 pivot, and Thursday's Asia session printed a fresh week low at 1.3250, with price capped below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3282 and EMA(50) at 1.3321. RSI(14) at 28.3 is oversold but holding a higher low versus Wednesday's 19.3 while price made a lower low, a bullish divergence, and ATR has compressed from 14.3 to 11.5 pips.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32822, 1.3300, 1.3321
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC, within the hour, could materially shift this read; a miss would put the week low under pressure
Hourly close below the 1.3250 week low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the RSI divergence unconfirmed
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.3282 would be the first break of the hourly lower-high structure since Tuesday
Reclaim of the 1.3300 pivot and the ema50 near 1.3321 would neutralise the downtrend read
US jobless claims and Fed speakers later today keep USD-side risk elevated
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's high, fresh week low in Asia.
Cable has fully unwound Monday's BoE-driven rally to 1.3459. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session triggered the dominant leg lower, a second leg came at Wednesday's London-NY transition, and the Asia session today extended to a fresh week low at 1.3250, well under the weekly open at 1.3349. Price sits below both EMAs, with a declining EMA(20) at 1.3284 overhead. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.1 but has made a higher low against Wednesday's 19.3 reading while price set a lower low, and ATR has compressed to 11.9 pips from 14.3.
Support: 1.32498
Resistance: 1.32844, 1.3300, 1.33486
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC, about 2h out, could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a break of the 1.3250 week low.
An H1 close below the 1.3250 week low confirms another lower low and voids the bullish RSI divergence.
H1 closes back above the ema20 at 1.3284 would mark the first reclaim since Wednesday; 1.3300 psych sits just above.
Recovery through 1.3300 psych exposes the weekly open at 1.3349 and the 38.2% CPI sell-off fib area.
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak during NY hours could extend USD strength regardless of the UK data.
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak; price below both EMAs.
Monday's post-BoE rally peaked at 1.3459 into Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI print then drove a 130-pip slide through the NY session, and Wednesday's NY hours extended it below the 1.3300 round number. Asia has now broken the 1.3266–1.3286 shelf to a fresh swing low at 1.3250, with price about 30 pips under a falling EMA(20) at 1.3287 and EMA(50) at 1.3326. RSI(14) at 24.7 is oversold but printing higher lows against the lower price low, and ATR(14) has eased from 14.3 to 12.1 pips. That reads as downside momentum fading rather than reversing.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3287, 1.3300, 1.3355
What it said to watch
UK Q3 prelim GDP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% QoQ) could materially shift this read within the London open
Failure to hold the 1.3250 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.3287 and the lower highs cap near 1.3282–1.3286 would break the consolidation-to-continuation read
Reclaim of the 1.3300 round number exposes the 50% fib and Wednesday's lower high at 1.3355, close to the 1.3349 week open
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak during NY hours keep USD-led volatility risk elevated
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 high; range floor broken in Asia.
Monday's rally from the 1.3349 week open to 1.3459 flipped on Tuesday's hot US core CPI. The slide has run about 200 pips through Wednesday's NY session, with price capped below a falling EMA(20) near 1.3290 and the EMA(50). The Asia session has now broken the 1.3266 range floor to a fresh week low at 1.3253, but RSI(14) at 23 is oversold and made a higher low against Wednesday's 19.3, a bullish divergence into the lower price low.
Support: 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3290, 1.3349
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% q/q), about 4h out, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.3266 range floor would mark the Asia break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.3253 week low keeps the lower-low sequence intact despite the divergence
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.3290 would be the first break of the lower-high structure in the slide
US jobless claims and Fed speakers from 13:30 UTC; a move back to the week open at 1.3349 needs the USD leg to ease
Lower highs from Tuesday's peak, tight range above week low.
Hot US CPI during Tuesday's NY session turned the pair off its 1.3459 week high, and the slide extended through Wednesday's NY session to a 1.3261 week low. Price is below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3294 and EMA(50) at 1.3332, with the dollar bid driving it rather than UK news. Since Wednesday's NY session, price has compressed beneath a 1.3286 range top while ATR(14) eased to 11.2 pips. The late wick to the week low printed RSI(14) near 26 versus 19 at the earlier low, a mild bullish divergence, and the Tuesday cpi low at 1.3312 sits above the ema20 as the next overhead layer.
Support: 1.32613, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32864, 1.32938, 1.33121
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3286 range top and ema20 at 1.3294 would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3261 week low exposes the 1.3250 half figure
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers could extend the dollar leg
Lower highs since Tuesday, tight base above week low.
GBPUSD reversed hard from Tuesday's 1.3459 week high. The hot US CPI print drove a 110-pip slide during Tuesday's NY session, and Wednesday's NY session extended the week's drop below 1.3300 and the 1.3349 weekly open. Price now sits under both the ema20 (1.3296) and ema50 (1.3334). Since Wednesday's 1.3266 low the pair has held a tight 1.3261–1.3286 range while ATR(14) compressed from 14.3 to 11.3 pips. Thursday's Asia dip to the 1.3261 week low printed RSI(14) at 26.5 against 19.3 at Wednesday's low, a bullish divergence with RSI still oversold.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.32955, 1.33341
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3286 range top and the ema20 at 1.3296 would break the lower-high sequence in place since Tuesday
Failure to hold the 1.3261 week low voids the bullish rsi divergence and leaves the 1.3200 round number as the next reference
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) could materially shift this read
ema50 at 1.3334 marks the upper boundary of any recovery; US jobless claims and Fedspeak later Thursday add USD-side risk
Lower highs since Tuesday's week high; tight range above week low.
The week's dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when hot US CPI broke cable through the 1.3312 cpi low, and Wednesday's NY session extended the slide to a 1.3266 week low. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.32975 and EMA(50) at 1.33365, and the Tuesday–Wednesday drop from the 1.3459 week high is largely unretraced. Since Wednesday's NY session a tight 1.3270–1.3286 range has held under the Wednesday lower highs line, with RSI(14) oversold at 28.2 after a 19.3 trough and ATR(14) compressing to 11.7 pips.
Support: 1.3270, 1.32663
Resistance: 1.32864, 1.32975, 1.33121
What it said to watch
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ), about 7h away, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3286 range top breaks the Wednesday lower highs line and puts the ema20 at 1.32975 in play
Failure to hold the 1.3270 range floor and the 1.3266 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3312 cpi low would neutralise the post-CPI breakdown
US jobless claims and Fed speakers (Hammack, Barr) in Thursday's NY session could move this read