GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 27 · price 1.32788
Lower highs and lows since Tuesday; tight base above week low.
Cable has fully unwound Monday's rally off the 1.3349 weekly open and is down ~200 pips from Tuesday's 1.3459 London-open high. The hot US CPI print drove Tuesday's NY-session slide, and Wednesday's London/NY leg broke below 1.3300. Since then price has compressed in a 1.3266–1.3286 range below the range top, with EMA(20) at 1.3300 sloping lower overhead and ATR easing to 11.8 pips. The late-session dip to a fresh 1.3261 week low printed RSI(14) at 26.5 versus 19.3 on the earlier low, an oversold bullish divergence.
Support: 1.32613, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32864, 1.32998, 1.33389
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3286 range top and the ema20 at 1.3300 would break the lower-high sequence in place since Wednesday
Acceptance below the 1.3261 week low extends the lower lows toward the 1.3250 psych level and negates the RSI divergence
A recovery toward the ema50 at 1.3339 would meet the 38.2% retrace of the Tue-Wed drop, an area to watch for rejection or break
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% QoQ) in ~8h could materially shift this read; US jobless claims and Fed speakers follow in NY hours
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak; tight base above the week low.
Monday's rally to 1.3459 at Tuesday's London open was erased after the hot US core CPI print. The post-CPI sell-off extended into Wednesday's NY open, reaching a week low at 1.3266 as the market priced a larger Fed hike and lifted the dollar. Price sits below both EMAs, with EMA(20) at 1.3303 sloping lower and a lower-highs sequence intact. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.3, up from 19.3 while the low holds, and ATR has compressed to 11.7 pips inside a range capped by the range top at 1.3286.
Support: 1.32662
Resistance: 1.32864, 1.33026, 1.33121
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the range top at 1.3286, then the ema20 near 1.3303, would be the first break in the lower-highs sequence
A reclaim of the 1.3300 handle and the tuesday low at 1.3312 would turn the post-CPI sell-off into a deeper retracement
Failure to hold the week low at 1.3266 extends the downtrend leg out of the current base
UK Q3 GDP (f/c 0.7% QoQ) at 07:00 UTC Thu, in about 9h, could materially shift this read; US jobless claims and Fedspeak follow from 13:30 UTC
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 27 · price 1.32742
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.3459 peak; tight base above week low.
Monday's rally to 1.3459 unwound after the hot US core CPI print in Tuesday's NY session, and the dollar leg extended Wednesday through London before a NY-open push to the 1.3266 week low, well below the 1.3349 weekly open. Price sits under a falling EMA(20) at 1.3306, which is below the EMA(50), and has been confined to a ~20-pip band capped by the 1.3286 NY high since. RSI(14) recovered from 19.3 to the mid-20s and is still oversold, while ATR has eased from 14.3 to 12.3 pips as the move pauses.
Support: 1.32663, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32864, 1.33056, 1.33486
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3286 NY high and the EMA(20) near 1.3306 would end the lower-high sequence and put 1.3300 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3266 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3250 round number
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read during the London session
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC Thu, with 50bp December odds a driver for the dollar leg
A reclaim of the 38.2% retracement of the CPI decline near 1.3340 would put the weekly open back in reach
Lower highs since Tuesday high; tight consolidation above week low.
The week topped at Tuesday's London-open high of 1.3459. Hot US CPI then drove a 130-pip NY-session slide, and a second leg during Wednesday's NY hours broke 1.3300 to a 1.3266 week low. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3309 and EMA(50) at 1.3347, with lower highs since the 1.3355 Asia high, and RSI(14) at 27.5 is oversold while the bounce stalls in a 20-pip consolidation under the 1.3286 bounce high.
Support: 1.32663, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32864, 1.33089, 1.33554
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3309 ema20 and 1.3300 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3266 week low exposes the 1.3250 round number
A move back to the 1.3355 Asia high would put price at the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers on 25bp vs 50bp are the next USD-side risk
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near lows · RSI 26 · price 1.32734
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high.
GBPUSD has unwound Monday's rally. Tuesday's London fade from the 1.3459 week high turned into a sharp NY-hours slide after the hot US CPI print, and the drop extended into Wednesday's NY open to a 1.3266 swing low. Price sits below both EMA(20) at 1.3312 and EMA(50) at 1.3350, each sloping lower, while the 1.3355 lower high and a falling line of lower highs have capped every rebound. RSI(14) at 25.6 is oversold after a 19.3 trough, but the bounce has not reclaimed 1.3300 psych.
Support: 1.32663
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33122, 1.33554
What it said to watch
A reclaim of 1.3300 psych and the 1.3312 ema20 would be the first sign of the slide stalling; a recovery above the 1.3355 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
A rebound that stalls below the 38.2% retracement of the Tue-Wed drop near 1.3340 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.3266 swing low extends the lower-low sequence with RSI already oversold
UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC Thursday (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read; US jobless claims and Fed speakers follow in NY hours
Lower highs from 1.3459 week high; new week low below 1.3300.
Cable gave back Monday's push to the 1.3459 week high once Tuesday's hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp talk hit, sliding about 130 pips through the NY session. The Asia high at 1.3355 capped the rebound and set a second of two lower highs, before a London-NY transition break below 1.3300 psych printed a 1.3266 week low. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3316 with RSI(14) at 25.6, oversold and just off a 19.3 trough, as ATR expands on the break.
Support: 1.32662, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33161, 1.33554
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3300 psych and the ema20 at 1.3316 would ease the downtrend read
Asia high at 1.3355, inside the 38.2-50% fib zone of the week drop, is the cap that keeps the lower highs intact
Failure to hold the 1.3266 week low exposes the 1.3250 round number
UK GDP Thu 07:00 GMT (0.7% q/q f/c) could materially shift this read, with US claims and Fed speakers later Thursday
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a fresh week low · RSI 27 · price 1.32782
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's high; 1.3300 lost.
Monday's climb from the 1.3349 weekly open topped at 1.3459 at Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI then drove the CPI leg lower through NY hours, and Wednesday's Asian-high bounce stalled at 1.3355, leaving a lower high. London and the London-NY transition broke the 1.3300 round number to a 1.3266 week low. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3321 and EMA(50) at 1.3356, with RSI(14) oversold at 26.5 after a 19.3 trough and ATR expanding to 14 pips.
Support: 1.32663, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33205, 1.33554
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3300 round number, then the ema20 near 1.3321, would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.3266 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
A retest of the week low on a higher RSI(14) low would mark bullish divergence
Lower highs trendline from Tuesday's high via the 1.3355 Asian high caps rallies while intact
UK GDP Thu 07:00 GMT (q/q f/c 0.7%), then US jobless claims and Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 peak.
Cable gave back the week's gains after topping at 1.3459 in Tuesday's London session. Hot US core CPI drove a near-150-pip NY-session slide, and the Wednesday Asia bounce stalled at a 1.3355 lower high, below the 38.2% fib of the move. A London-NY grind then broke the 1.3300 round number to a 1.32663 week low. Price trades below a falling EMA(20) at 1.33248 and EMA(50) at 1.33595, with RSI(14) oversold at 27.1 after a 19.3 trough and ATR expanding to 14.3 pips.
Support: 1.32663, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33248, 1.33554
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3300 round number and the ema20 at 1.33248 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.32663 week low extends lower lows toward the 1.3250 round number
UK GDP Thu 07:00 GMT (q/q f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read; a miss vs a beat carries asymmetric risk
US jobless claims Thu and core PPI Fri keep the USD leg in focus; the 1.3355 lower high caps any squeeze
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high; 1.3300 floor broken.
Monday's climb from the 1.3349 weekly open to the 1.3459 week high reversed on Tuesday. The hot US CPI print and Waller's 50bp talk drove a near-130 pip slide, the 1.3355 bounce high set a lower high, and today's session pushed through the 1.3300 prior floor to a fresh week low at 1.3266. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3329 and EMA(50) at 1.3363, RSI(14) is deeply oversold at 19.2, and ATR is re-expanding to 13.9 pips. The fib on the CPI drop puts 38.2% near 1.3340, close to the weekly open.
Support: 1.32663, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33294, 1.33554
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.3300 prior floor would turn today's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3266 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3329 is the first break of the lower highs
Bounce high 1.3355 above that is the next marker, close to the 38.2% fib
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
Thursday's Fed speakers and Friday's core PPI keep USD-side risk elevated
The week's dominant move came in NY hours Tuesday, when the hot US core CPI print drove the sell-off from the 1.3459 London-open week high through to the 1.3312 cpi low. After a shallow Asia bounce capped at 1.3355, Wednesday's London session ground lower and the first hour of NY broke the 1.3300 psych floor, printing a fresh day low at 1.3278, below the 1.3349 weekly open. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3336 and EMA(50) at 1.3367; RSI(14) at 21.9 is oversold with no bullish divergence, and ATR(14) is expanding to 13.6 pips.
Support: 1.3278, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33121, 1.33357
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3300 psych level would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.3312 cpi low and ema20 at 1.3336 would break the lower-highs sequence
Acceptance below the 1.3278 day low leaves the 1.3250 round number as the next reference
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
Thu Fedspeak and Fri US core PPI keep USD-side risk elevated
Lower highs since CPI, fresh week low below the 1.3312 CPI low.
Tuesday's sell-off started from the 1.3459 week high in London, and the hot US core CPI print then drove it to 1.3312 by the NY session. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at 1.3355 and printed lower highs under a falling EMA(20) at 1.3344, below the weekly open at 1.3349. Price has now slipped through the CPI low to a fresh week low at 1.3307, with RSI(14) at 26.1 oversold. RSI is holding above Tuesday's 18.4 trough, a bullish divergence against the lower price low, while ATR has compressed from 16.6 to 12.8 pips.
Support: 1.33071, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33121, 1.33441, 1.33486
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3312 cpi low would mark the break of it as a false break
Failure to hold the week low and the 1.3300 round number extends the lower-low sequence; an RSI print below 18.4 would void the divergence
Recovery through the Wednesday lower highs, ema20 (1.3344) and the weekly open (1.3349) challenges the downtrend read; the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday sell-off sits at 1.3365
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 GMT (QoQ f/c 0.7%, MoM f/c 0.0%) could materially shift this read
Thursday's US jobless claims and the Fedspeak run into Williams could also materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 week high; low being retested.
The hot US CPI print on Tuesday drove a roughly 145-pip slide during NY hours, from the 1.3459 week high to the 1.3312 CPI low. Wednesday's Asia-session bounce stalled at the 1.3355 bounce high, below a falling EMA(20). Price faded through the London open back to the CPI low, below both EMAs, with EMA(20) now at 1.3348 alongside the 1.3349 weekly open. RSI(14) at 29.2 is oversold but holding above its 18.4 post-CPI trough, and ATR(14) has compressed from 16.6 to 12.8 pips.
Support: 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3348, 1.3355, 1.3375
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3312 CPI low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3300 psych level
Recovery above EMA(20) and the weekly open near 1.3348, then the 1.3355 bounce high, breaks the lower-high sequence
EMA(50) at 1.3375 caps any wider recovery while price holds below it
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
Thursday Fedspeak on the 25 vs 50bp December debate is the main USD driver
Lower highs below falling EMAs; retest of the 1.3312 Tuesday low.
Monday's rally from the 1.3349 weekly open to 1.3459 reversed on Tuesday. A London-led slide, extended by the hot US core CPI print, carried price to the 1.3312 tue low. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at the 1.3355 asia high, below a falling ema20 and ema50. London has since retested the tue low, with RSI(14) at 31, above Tuesday's 18 trough.
Support: 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33508, 1.33554, 1.3377
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3312 tue low and the 1.3300 round number confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
Close back above the ema20 at 1.3351 and the 1.3355 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence; ema50 at 1.3377 is next overhead
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (q/q f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read
No high-impact US data today; Thursday Fedspeak and Friday PPI keep the USD side live
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the lows · RSI 29 · price 1.33225
Lower high below ema20, retesting CPI low.
The rally from the 1.3349 weekly open to 1.3459 on Tuesday's London session was fully reversed after the hot US CPI. The NY session drove a near 150-pip slide to the 1.3312 cpi low. The Asia bounce stalled at 1.3355, just above the ema20, leaving a lower high, and London open has pressed price back to 1.3322 to retest the low. Price sits below both EMAs, which are sloping lower, while RSI(14) at 28.8 is oversold but still holds above Tuesday's 18 trough. ATR is ticking up again.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33535, 1.33791
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3312 cpi low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3300 psych level
Reclaim of the 1.3349 weekly open and ema20 near 1.3354 breaks the lower-high sequence on the downtrend line
Rebound capped below the ema50 at 1.3379 keeps the CPI drop fib retracement shallow
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 top; shallow flag above the CPI low.
Monday's rally from the 1.3349 weekly open was rejected at 1.3459 at Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) then extended the slide through NY hours to the 1.3312 cpi low, the week low. The overnight bounce stalled at 1.3355, below the falling ema20 at 1.3357 and short of the 38.2% retrace, forming a shallow flag, and London is now pressing its base with RSI(14) at 31.2 after an 18.4 trough. Price holds below both ema20 and ema50 (1.3382), while ATR(14) has compressed to 12.3 pips from 16.6 at the CPI spike.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33568, 1.33815
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3312 cpi low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3300 round number
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.3357 and the 1.3349 weekly open breaks the lower highs line and voids the flag read
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (q/q f/c 0.7%) could materially shift this read; ema50 at 1.3382 is the next cap above
US jobless claims and Fedspeak Thu, then PPI Fri, steer 50bp Fed pricing and the USD side of the pair
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI drop stalling · RSI 33 · price 1.33341
Impulsive leg lower, then tight consolidation below EMA(20).
Tuesday's hot US CPI flipped the week. The pair reversed from the 1.3459 week high during NY hours and slid about 147 pips to the 1.3312 cpi low by late NY, erasing Monday's rally. Since then price has held a narrow 1.3332–1.3355 band through the Asia session and is now testing its base at the London open. It is capped by the weekly open at 1.3349 and the falling ema20 at 1.3360, with the ema50 at 1.3384 above that. RSI(14) has recovered from 18 into the mid-30s but has not cleared 39, and ATR has eased to 11.8 pips from 16.6 as the range compresses.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33596, 1.33836
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.3360 would end the consolidation below it and bring the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop (1.3368), then the ema50 near 1.3384, into play
Break below the 1.3312 cpi low would extend the downtrend toward the 1.3300 round number
Repeated failure to reclaim the weekly open at 1.3349 keeps the pair inside the lower part of the post-CPI band
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC and Thursday Fedspeak on a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read
Lower low at 1.3312, tight range below weekly open and both EMAs.
Tuesday's hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) extended a London-open drop from the 1.3459 week high to a 1.3312 week low during NY hours, erasing Monday's rally and breaking Friday's 1.3342 low. The Asia session bounce stalled at the 1.3355 range top, short of the 38.2% fib of that drop, and price now sits in a 1.3333–1.3355 range just below the 1.3349 weekly open and under both EMAs, with ATR(14) compressing from 16.6 to 11.8 pips. RSI(14) has recovered from 18.4 to 35.8 but has not yet reclaimed 50.
Support: 1.33334, 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33554, 1.33621
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3362 ema20 and the 1.3355 range top would turn the post-CPI pause into a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% fib near 1.3368
Failure to hold the 1.3333 range low exposes the 1.3312 week low and the 1.3300 round number
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and the Fedspeak cluster Thu, then PPI Fri, keep the 25 vs 50bp Fed debate live for USD
Monday rally fully erased; tight Asian range just under EMA(20) after a lower high.
The week's rally from the 1.3349 weekly open topped at 1.3459 into Tuesday's London open. It then unwound during NY hours as the US core CPI beat (0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a roughly 147-pip slide to the 1.3312 cpi low, putting price back at the weekly open. Asia is holding a 1.3333–1.3355 range beneath a falling EMA(20) at 1.3364 and the EMA(50) at 1.3387. RSI(14) has recovered from 18.4 to 37.9 and ATR has compressed from 16.6 to 11.9 pips, which reads as a pause rather than a turn.
Support: 1.33334, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33554, 1.33641, 1.33872
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3355 asian high and the ema20 at 1.3364 (near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop) would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3333 asian low reopens the 1.3312 cpi low
Lower-high trendline from Tuesday's 1.3459 peak caps rebounds while price stays below the ema50 at 1.3387
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 GMT and US claims plus Fed speakers Thu 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Tight consolidation below falling EMAs after CPI impulse.
A London-session slide from the 1.3459 week high on Tuesday turned into a NY-hours drop after the US core CPI beat (0.3% vs 0.2%), reaching the 1.3312 week low and erasing Monday's rally back to the weekly open near 1.3349. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3334–1.3355 consolidation below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3366 and EMA(50) at 1.3389. RSI(14) has lifted from 18.4 to 35.3 and ATR has eased from 16.6 to 12.4 pips, while the rebound stalls at the 23.6% fib of the CPI leg and holds a higher low at 1.3334.
Support: 1.33334, 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33657, 1.33888
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 1.3349 and the ema20 at 1.3366 (near the 38.2% fib) shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the ema50 at 1.3389
Loss of the 1.3334 higher low puts the 1.3312 week low back in play; a break of the 1.3300 round number would extend the lower-low sequence
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and heavy Fedspeak Thu, then US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, are the next USD tests of the post-CPI move
Impulsive break lower, now a tight Asia consolidation back at the weekly open.
Monday's rally from the 1.3349 weekly open topped at 1.3459 in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) then drove a 147-pip slide into NY hours, reaching the 1.3312 week low with RSI(14) down at 18.4. The bounce has stalled in a 22-pip Asian range between the 1.3333 asia low and the 1.3355 asia high. That range sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3368 and EMA(50) at 1.3391, and ATR is compressing from 16.6 to 12.5 pips. RSI has only recovered to 36.3, so the move off the low so far reads as a pause, not a reversal.
Support: 1.3333, 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3355, 1.3368, 1.3391
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.3368, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, would mark the first reclaim since Tuesday's break
Supply near the ema50 at 1.3391 and the 1.3400 handle would cap a deeper retracement
Loss of the asia low at 1.3333 puts the 1.3312 week low back in play, with the 1.3300 psych level just below
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 GMT (f/c 0.7% QoQ) could materially shift this read; Thursday's Fed speaker slate also matters for 50bp odds
Post-CPI lower low at 1.3312, tight rebound below falling EMAs.
Monday's climb from the 1.3349 weekly open to a 1.3459 week high was fully unwound Tuesday. The London open took 30 pips off, then the hot US CPI print drove a NY-session slide to a 1.3312 week low, below Friday's low. Price has since steadied in a narrow Asian range just above the weekly open, along rising rebound lows, still under a falling EMA(20) at 1.3370 and EMA(50) at 1.3392, with RSI(14) recovering to 38.7 from 18.4 and ATR easing to 12.8 pips from 16.6.
Support: 1.33486, 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3370, 1.33924, 1.3459
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.3370, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg, would mark the first break of the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3349 and the rebound lows line exposes the 1.3312 week low and the 1.3300 psych level
Recovery through the ema50 at 1.3392 and 1.3400 would put the 1.3459 week high back in view
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC, Fed speakers and claims Thu, and US PPI Fri could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.3459 and lower low at 1.3312; tight post-CPI consolidation.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print reversed Monday's London-led recovery. Cable fell from the 1.3459 London high to a 1.3312 week low during NY hours, undercutting Friday's 1.3342 low and leaving a lower high beneath last Thursday's 1.3500 peak on the lower-highs line. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3372 and EMA(50) at 1.3394, with RSI(14) back to 35 from 18 and ATR easing, while the Asia session holds just under the 1.3349 rebound high near the 23.6% fib retracement.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33494, 1.33717, 1.33939
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3349 rebound high and the ema20 at 1.3372, near the 38.2% fib, would ease the post-CPI downtrend read
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.3394 neutralises the CPI leg and puts the lower-highs line back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3312 week low exposes the 1.3300 psych level and late-October low
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (f/c 0.7% q/q) could materially shift this read
Thu Fed speakers and Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI test 50bp December pricing, the main cable driver
Post-CPI lower low, tight consolidation at weekly open.
Monday's London-led rally from the 1.3349 weekly open to a 1.3459 week high was fully unwound on Tuesday. The hot US CPI print drove a near 130-pip NY session leg to a 1.3312 CPI low, a fresh lower low below last Friday's 1.3342. The rebound has stalled near the weekly open, short of the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg around 1.3368, and price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3374 and EMA(50) at 1.3396. RSI(14) has recovered to 34.9 from an 18.4 extreme, and ATR is compressing from 16.6 to 13.6 pips as the Asian range tightens.
Support: 1.33334, 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33741, 1.33958, 1.3459
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3374 ema20 and the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg opens the 1.3396 ema50 and 1.3400 area
Failure to hold the 1.3333 Asia low exposes the 1.3312 CPI low and the 1.3300 round number
A rebound through 1.3400 toward the 1.3459 week high would neutralise the post-CPI downtrend read
UK Q3 GDP on Thu 07:00 UTC, Fed speakers Thu and US PPI on Fri could materially shift this read