22:01 UTC
Downtrend resuming, momentum turning lower · RSI 41 · price 1.3237
Lower highs since August; Oct–Nov recovery leg failing below 1.3503.
Since the late-August peak at 1.3675 the D1 chain has printed lower highs. The October–November recovery from the 1.3137 oct low met rejection at the 1.3503 nov high, and the hot US CPI and Fed-hike repricing then drove a three-session slide from 1.3459 to fresh four-week lows. Price now sits below both the ema20 (1.3349) and a flattening ema50 (1.3359), with roughly three-quarters of the Oct–Nov leg retraced on the fib, RSI(14) rolling over to 40.6 and ATR expanding to 76.7 pips, putting the 1.3200 psych handle in focus.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31367
Resistance: 1.33487, 1.33587, 1.3503
What it said to watch
- D1 close below 1.3200 psych exposes the 1.3137 oct low and a full retrace of the Oct–Nov leg
- Recovery back above the ema20/ema50 band near 1.3350–1.3360 would neutralise the renewed downtrend read
- A close above the 1.3503 nov high and the lower highs trendline would break the sequence in place since August
- US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, then UK labour data Tue and UK CPI Wed, could materially shift this read