Oct range break, higher low at 1.3272, capped near 61.8% fib.
The six-week slide from the 1.3568 sept high bottomed at the 1.3137 oct low. A three-week base followed, then broke higher in mid-October. Last week the pair printed a higher low at 1.3272, rebounding as the UK Budget removed a fiscal risk premium, and Friday tagged a new oct high at 1.3434 before closing back near the 61.8% retracement at 1.3403. Price now sits above the ema20 and a flattening EMA(50), with RSI at 56 and no stretch on momentum.
Support: 1.3331, 1.3272, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3500, 1.3568
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 1.3434 oct high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path to the 1.3500 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3272 higher low breaks rising support and revives the downtrend read toward the oct low
Close back below the ema20 near 1.3331 returns price to the 38.2–50% fib zone
BoE decision Thu Nov 5 12:00 GMT (vote f/c 7-2) and Bailey at 12:30 could materially shift this read
US ISM Mon, midterms Tue and Payrolls later in the week are the USD-side risks
Higher high / higher low chain since 1.3137 Oct low; range break from Sep–Oct base, capped near 61.8% fib.
Cable spent late September to mid-October basing between 1.3137 and 1.3311, then broke higher on Oct 16 and has since printed a higher low at 1.3272 and a fresh swing high at 1.3434, holding above EMA20 and the flattening EMA50 near 1.3365. The rebound tracked the UK Budget easing fiscal risk and a fully priced BoE hike. Friday's close back near 1.3393, below the 61.8% retracement of the Sept–Oct decline, shows supply capping the 1.3430 area, with RSI mid-50s and no overbought reading.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3272, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3500, 1.3568
What it said to watch
BoE Super Thursday (Nov 5): an MPC vote split away from the 7-2 consensus could materially shift this read around the 1.3434 swing high
Daily close above the 1.3434 swing high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path toward the 1.3500 round number and the 1.3568 Sept high
Close below the 1.3272 higher low and the rising support from the Oct low breaks the HH/HL chain, putting the 1.3137 Oct low back in focus
Loss of the ema50 near 1.3365 would return price toward the prior base
US ISM, midterms and Payrolls next week are the USD-side risks to the structure